Questions for Frank Scoblete

I thought it would be appropriate to start a separate thread just to ASK qeustions of Frank and not to debate him. I have three questions:

1. Does it really make sense to use a practice rig at home, or even your own craps table at home, when it probably will not match the bounce or length or size or table conditions (placement of chips) on a casino table?

2. Wong in his book advocated just throwing dice onto your bed to practice your grip and throw and putting down a sheet of aluminum foil to record stars and stripes for dice control. Is this an acceptable and effective way to practice your throw?

3. Does the Seven to rolls ratio include "numbers" that you don't bet on? It's great if a dice influencer or controller has a marvelous SRR but if he is throwing horn numbers, or 4s and 10s and you're betting the 6 and 8 that SRR seems to be of no significance to you. Is there a more precise or different measurement to see if a dice influencer or dice controller is actually hitting the numbers that count? And wouldn't I just want to measure the numbers I am betting on?

Many thanks.

Hi Alan:

Here is what I like about you. Even if we have a disagreement, you are personable in your discussions. Here are my answers:

1. Does it really make sense to use a practice rig at home, or even your own craps table at home, when it probably will not match the bounce or length or size or table conditions (placement of chips) on a casino table?

ANSWER: Yes, I think it is. Although all tables are different (even in the same casino) you are practicing much like a pitcher does in the outfield, the bullpen, the real mound. Although the major league mounds are the same dimensions from stadium to stadium, if you talk to pitchers they will tell you each mound has its own individual characteristics. So, yes, your practice rig at home will only simulate a casino table. Even a full at-home casino table will only "simulate" a casino table that is actually in a casino. One of the reasons there is a tendency to do somewhat poorer in a real casino is the very fact that each table will be different and your throw must be slightly modified, reducing its effectiveness. As for chips at the other end of the table? You do have to be able to land your dice where the chips are not. I never recommend any shooter asking other players to move their chips. There is actually plenty of room, even with chips spread out near the back wall, to land the dice.

2. Wong in his book advocated just throwing dice onto your bed to practice your grip and throw and putting down a sheet of aluminum foil to record stars and stripes for dice control. Is this an acceptable and effective way to practice your throw?

ANSWER: Wong was a serious student when he took the Golden Touch course. He was attentive and intelligent --- and we didn't have to explain over and over which bets to make and why. ("Gamblers" and "action junkies" fail in the dice control world even if they have a good throw because their betting choices are awful. Most often slide away from practicing at home because the thrill for them is the actual gambling.) I think his idea would be best utilized in your hotel room as a warmup before going down to the tables. Keep in mind that on-axis throws at certain percentages might mean you have to move your set to a 3-V or 2-V or the like but the practice he is recommending might not be the best analysis of your skill. So just landing them on aluminum foil might not have much meaning. But the warm up part would certainly help before going down to the tables.

3. Does the Seven to rolls ratio include "numbers" that you don't bet on? It's great if a dice influencer or controller has a marvelous SRR but if he is throwing horn numbers, or 4s and 10s and you're betting the 6 and 8 that SRR seems to be of no significance to you. Is there a more precise or different measurement to see if a dice influencer or dice controller is actually hitting the numbers that count? And wouldn't I just want to measure the numbers I am betting on?

ANSWER: Yes, sadly, it does. If your axis control is not strong, you will find many sessions where you are htting numbers on which you aren't betting. As your axis-control gets better and better and you pass the SmartCraps tests you will start to see repeating numbers that you are betting on. If you are using the 3-V (which I use), the numbers six and eight are the ones you are going for. Now, I do want to make this clear. Your edge is small so these repeating numbers are not usually so dramatic that in a short trial anyone will notice you are actually making money on short rolls. I've had really, really short rolls where I hit the six a few times and seven-out. I've made money but others have lost money. I also am not afraid to only bet the six. It can be my point and I will place it. My last session two weeks ago saw me doing okay but some of the players at the table thought I was the worst shooter in the place. Yes, I do like to highlight the spectacular when I write but I also caution shooters to expect more of a grind than showtime. Sometimes readers only remember the spectacular and not all the cautions I constantly give them.

One other thing shooters don't realize is that it takes a long time to get any good. I usually say at least six months of practicing almost every day at home before you might start to see consistent results. That is just a guesstimate. It took me three years to get competent --- that can discourage people. So if you play in casinos and you really don't have the skills, you will face a random or almost random game and you can get discouraged. I didn't get discouraged because I was able to see the Arm and the Captain do what I wanted to do and that motivated me.

Frank

Here's a question:

What did you think of the episode about craps in the Breaking Vegas series?

Did you like your portrayal?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bhno_F9vZcw

I was an active consultant on that show. When I saw the first half I fell off my chair because it was not what happened. There were no garage practices. Dom was not a part of a Rosebud team. The worst thing, I was really portrayed as a "dick." I have never yelled at a casino worker or been nasty to anyone at a craps table. Suddenly my sleezy character is threatening to kill some stickman. I also think some people have now thought that the character of Frank Scoblete shown in that show is the real Frank Scoblete.

However, other aspects of the show were true. A whole section I wrote about the Captain --- to me he is integral to dice control --- was left out.

So the show is not what I would have wanted shown, especially the stuff that never really happened.

I have a question to add if I may......

First let me say I do believe in "dice influence" vs "dice control" as I have tried it on a practice rig, which is actually a monte-carlo night craps table with pyramids like an alligator on the real thing, though there is no pad below the felt so the dice can really bounce. I have had throws where they stay tight together and just catch the bottom of the back wall so there was little if any bouncing around. If you could do this on even one roll in five you could flip the edge to the player.

So if we accept this, what bets do you suggest a person or team make to take full advantage? Obviously we take pass line and the most free-odds our bankroll can handle but do you also place 6-8? Iron Cross? I tell people if you believe a long roll is coming do what I call a "Modified Iron Cross" which is wait for a 5-6-8 point then do that with free-odds as you can handle, then 2 units in the field and 1 on the remaining 5-6-8 (bumped to a proper bet on the 6-8 of course) so you get a pay on every non-7 roll.

What do you do and suggest?

Quote: AZDuffman

I have a question to add if I may......

First let me say I do believe in "dice influence" vs "dice control" as I have tried it on a practice rig, which is actually a monte-carlo night craps table with pyramids like an alligator on the real thing, though there is no pad below the felt so the dice can really bounce. I have had throws where they stay tight together and just catch the bottom of the back wall so there was little if any bouncing around. If you could do this on even one roll in five you could flip the edge to the player.

So if we accept this, what bets do you suggest a person or team make to take full advantage? Obviously we take pass line and the most free-odds our bankroll can handle but do you also place 6-8? Iron Cross? I tell people if you believe a long roll is coming do what I call a "Modified Iron Cross" which is wait for a 5-6-8 point then do that with free-odds as you can handle, then 2 units in the field and 1 on the remaining 5-6-8 (bumped to a proper bet on the 6-8 of course) so you get a pay on every non-7 roll.

What do you do and suggest?

I did an experiment using wongs and another guys actual results
Posted on wizard of odds where on the come out I layed the 4/10 field and don't pass. I didn't use any formulas just figured out what I'd make or lose from the come out and the field hurt my results I didn't make as much on a win and costs you the table minimum so I was behind on this sample. Without the field I did much better.

My other favorite is 66 inside regression but only for 1 but max 2 rolls.

Oh and the 5 count.

Can I ask a question.
If you standardize every part of your shot using training aids: grip, arch, length and use a cup to make sure the dice are hitting the same spot the only variables being dice set and arm speed.

Then use the hard way set and smart craps. To get better. Would this work to improve my game?

If you do not have strong axis control, then always use Come betting with odds. I would also go with placing the six and/or eight. Don't go up on too many numbers. I'd skip all the other bets.

With strong axis control, things will change. Then some bets that I tell people never to make can be made and some bets that are great suddenly become not-so-great.

If you could standardize everything --- I mean you were perfect at the outset --- each table in a casino, even if those tables looked exactly alike, will be slightly different. (I consider dice influencing and dice control and rhythmic rolling to be synonyms. I use "dice control" because it has a more powerful impact.)

I am very conservative in my approach and I think months should be taken to really work at it, test oneself, and make sure you have an edge when you put your money on the line. Even with excellent skills, it is not easy.

Quote: wrighj03

I did an experiment using wongs and another guys actual results
Posted on wizard of odds where on the come out I layed the 4/10 field and don't pass. I didn't use any formulas just figured out what I'd make or lose from the come out and the field hurt my results I didn't make as much on a win and costs you the table minimum so I was behind on this sample. Without the field I did much better.

My other favorite is 66 inside regression but only for 1 but max 2 rolls.

Oh and the 5 count.

Can I ask a question.
If you standardize every part of your shot using training aids: grip, arch, length and use a cup to make sure the dice are hitting the same spot the only variables being dice set and arm speed.

Then use the hard way set and smart craps. To get better. Would this work to improve my game?

Frank thank you for responding I loved Cutting edge craps. The discussion shed some light on the subject and clarified something's.
With the hard way 1 pip and 6 pip out and random pitch I keep getting the 5/2 or the 2/5 I'm not sure which. And my srr is like 1:3 - 1:4 "worse than random" Any suggestions?

I haven't seen your throw or landings but check out your ring finger. It is possible that finger is out of alignment with the other two. I'm just guessing now. Of course, "below random" means your throw isn't random. In reality there is no below random; it is either random or not. I use the "below random" statements but it actually means not random.

Quote: wrighj03

Frank thank you for responding I loved Cutting edge craps. The discussion shed some light on the subject and clarified something's.
With the hard way 1 pip and 6 pip out and random pitch I keep getting the 5/2 or the 2/5 I'm not sure which. And my srr is like 1:3 - 1:4 "worse than random" Any suggestions?

Don't change a thing about your throw. Start hopping the three-way seven for $3 and press the winnings. If you truly have a 1/4 or 1/3 chance of rolling a seven, you have an enormous edge over the house.

But be sure about your SRR because otherwise you'll lose a lot of money.

Quote: wrighj03

And my srr is like 1:3 - 1:4 "worse than random" Any suggestions?

There is variance about being random.
I would suggest reading more about Craps from the Wizard of Odds too. It can not make your craps playing any worse of an experience.

All DI instructors will be very happy to teach any student for real $$$ the basic lessons of dice control.
(stay away from the DI instructors that do not charge for lessons. if it is FREE, you get what you paid for)

It should be shown that about only 1 in 10,000 students
(or higher - not really lower - this is a skill we are talking about)
can actually ever control the dice enough through that learned skill,
make the proper bets to have an edge on those bets and over the game.

The DI sellers will even keep, for more $$$, showing you and telling you
and refresher course after refresher course, to keep practicing and track your progress in the tools of Smart Craps, Dice Tool, Bone Tracker etc
to see if you even can get better.

Just like a basketball player that makes only 50% of his FREEthrows.
20 years of practice later and still at 50%. Sometimes higher, and sometimes...
They just will NEVER (in this lifetime) have what it takes to be like a 90%er.

So you might as well just hope you find some sort of control
that makes playing Craps more FUN for you because
the numbers show that you probably will NOT be that 1 in 10,000

Good Luck
or should it be
Good Skill

Frank, a non-gambling question for just a moment...

What is your view of the book publishing biz at this point in time? I have been thinking of writing a non-fiction book on my particular area of professional experience, but I remain uncertain whether to seek a publisher or simply publish myself via the online approach. Thoughts?

Quote: MathExtremist

Don't change a thing about your throw.
Start hopping the three-way seven for $3 and press the winnings.
If you truly have a 1/4 or 1/3 chance of rolling a seven, you have an enormous edge over the house.

But be sure about your SRR because otherwise you'll lose a lot of money.

His SRR must be an "at home" value.
it can be that poor at home but not in a casino.
I would use min 4.5 to maybe 5.35 tops (18.5% player edge to .31% player edge)

What DI guru teaches to only bet for the 7 and roll more 7s than any other to get an edge over the house??
The Don't and Lay bets would take a beating with this skill.

Frank, another question please:

Would you call a shot that does not stay on axis a controlled throw or an influenced throw? In the past we have had discussions here about a certain shooter who claims that his shots are "controlled" or "influenced" even though they do not stay on axis, wobble and bounce in different directions, but manage to result in hardways. Would you say such shots are actually influenced or controlled or just have lucky results?

Quote: 7craps

There is variance about being random.
I would suggest reading more about Craps from the Wizard of Odds too. It can not make your craps playing any worse of an experience.

All DI instructors will be very happy to teach any student for real $$$ the basic lessons of dice control.
(stay away from the DI instructors that do not charge for lessons. if it is FREE, you get what you paid for)

It should be shown that about only 1 in 10,000 students
(or higher - not really lower - this is a skill we are talking about)
can actually ever control the dice enough through that learned skill,
make the proper bets to have an edge on those bets and over the game.

The DI sellers will even keep, for more $$$, showing you and telling you
and refresher course after refresher course, to keep practicing and track your progress in the tools of Smart Craps, Dice Tool, Bone Tracker etc
to see if you even can get better.

Just like a basketball player that makes only 50% of his FREEthrows.
20 years of practice later and still at 50%. Sometimes higher, and sometimes...
They just will NEVER (in this lifetime) have what it takes to be like a 90%er.

So you might as well just hope you find some sort of control
that makes playing Craps more FUN for you because
the numbers show that you probably will NOT be that 1 in 10,000

Good Luck
or should it be
Good Skill

I know your main goal is to add value to these discussions. However, some of your thoughts seem somewhat ambiguous.
Dice give you a concrete and definitive answer about your skill level and feedback.
I said my pitch control was random because with a hard way set I don't throw any hardways but get a lot of on axis numbers. If I throw slow and release at a 45.

Long story short I disagree with your 1 out of 10000 theory because the dice are offering you feedback if you choose to listen. Its only feedback.

Quote: wrighj03

Long story short I disagree with your 1 out of 10000 theory because the dice are offering you feedback if you choose to listen. Its only feedback.

You may disagree with my 1 in 10,000 but I say that is closer to reality than 1 in 1 or even 1 in 2

Not everyone that attempts to learn dice control will succeed in exerting enough control to gain an edge at craps.
It is often in the fine print. It is a difficult skill to get good at.

You may get some edge to lose less in the long run, and that could just be from normal variance in the dice rolls,
and that may make you somewhat more happy and have more fun while playing craps, but
The fact still remains and every DI seller will tell you this.

Not everyone that learns and spends their $$$ to learn to control the dice will develop the needed skill
to overcome the house edge or even dent it.

I think IMO you would have a better chance at owning a casino then
developing the skill level FrankS claims to have and every one that wants to be like Frank will be like him after X hours of practice.

I go with the Wizard on this one
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/7093-wong-and-dice-control/#post102661

"Many times Wong compared dice setting to tennis and golf, where both natural ability,
correct training, and continuous practice are essential for success.
In his book he didn't make it out to be so hard,
and he admitted that he would tone down his enthusiasm if he ever did a second printing.

Personally, I heard nothing to alleviate my skepticism.
In fact, I'm even more confident in saying that I have yet to see any convincing evidence that dice control is for real.
If I said that praying at the craps table made you win,
and engendered the kind of faith that dice control has,
then I think the gambling community would debate for years the merits of prayer.
There would always be some people who prayed, and won simply because they were lucky.

So, I'm afraid the jury is still out. However, I think the scarcity of evidence in favor of dice setting says it all"

Many lack the part of the brain necessary to understand advantage play craps even in theory.

For those, they are very unlikely to achieve advantage play craps, even if it were proven to be possible.

Much of the discussions on this board illuminate more relating to the limited forms of thinking that gamblers typical on this forum have than anything about advancing theory of dice control into reality and/or proof.

I would be continuing my efforts towards proving that dice control were possible if more people had the cerebral power to appreciate my efforts.

But as long as we continue to argue about dice setter versus someone who has an actual scientific approach to the game, the argument will continue to be about semantics.

And for those people having those arguments, it certainly can be held this truth: it is all just random.

What great resolution to the debate. Finality, and closure. Let us all arrive.

Those who wish to believe, without necessary effort to succeed themselves, can buy the book and help those who wish to sell the belief to those who feel compelled than they can come out financially ahead from their investment of their funds instead of the investment of their time and efforts in order to mentally appreciate the details necessary to accomplish the task.

I continue to enjoy great luck and fortune. I will be purchasing another 24k gold troy ounce tomorrow.

To fit the mental model approved by this forum, let it be know that it is with pure luck I proceed.

Quote: Ahigh

I would be continuing my efforts towards proving that dice control were possible if more people had the cerebral power to appreciate my efforts.

Quote: Face

That's right, I'm quoting nothing. Because that's what he said.

I rest my case. It is so frustrating having people argue over semantics, but at least here there is none to argue over.

I was hoping that we could limit this thread to asking Frank questions. I consider it a privilege to be able to ask him questions directly. I asked the following question before in this thread and so that it doesn't get lost I posted it again.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Would you call a shot that does not stay on axis a controlled throw or an influenced throw? In the past we have had discussions here about a certain shooter who claims that his shots are "controlled" or "influenced" even though they do not stay on axis, wobble and bounce in different directions, but manage to result in hardways. Would you say such shots are actually influenced or controlled or just have lucky results?

Quote: AlanMendelson

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What?

Quote: Ahigh

I would be continuing my efforts towards proving that dice control were possible if more people had the cerebral power to appreciate my efforts.... I will be purchasing another 24k gold troy ounce tomorrow.
.

Translation: People here aren't smart enough to keep up with me,
and I can prove this by constantly, incessantly, referring to how
much money I have.

I wonder if there's a name for this type of behavior or if its unique
to Ahigh. I guess its a combination of Narcissism and delusions of
grandeur. But I got my doctorate from a website for $10, so don't
go by what I conclude..

Quote: EvenBob

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Huh?

Quote: Ahigh

Quote: EvenBob

[ A post by EvenBob has been blocked due to your settings | Show it to me anyway | View members I have blocked ]

Huh?

I post for the benefit of others, not you. Please keep
me blocked. Thanks..

Quote: EvenBob

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Here's a question for Frank Scoblete: do you value Alan's and EvenBob's views on "dice setting" as they refer to the practice? Do you think they have the power to understand what it takes to perform advantage play craps? Or is it possible that they would never absolutely never get it, and it's just a big waste of time interacting with them?

The reason I ask is because I wasted a whole bunch of time trying to interact with both of them, and I gave up!

Good luck if you can help them, though.

Quote: Ahigh

The reason I ask is because I wasted a whole bunch of time trying to interact with both of them, and I gave up!
.

It wasn't me, I don't wear a mask. You have mistaken me
for the Lone Ranger again..

Quote: Ahigh

That's right, I'm quoting nothing. Because that's what he said.

I rest my case. It is so frustrating having people argue over semantics, but at least here there is none to argue over.

I began to respond, but in all honesty, the processing of your post completely shut down my brain. That's not your fault, I just lacked a proper way to address it. But I've let it marinate a few hours now, so here goes...

My first memory of you is you coming here and claiming you were the Master of Craps. No one in the world knew as much as you. Soon after, you began this quest for knowledge in this DI game.

You had my attention. Braggadocio aside, you certainly had the passion, the knowledge, and the equipment to do everything you said you would, and everything required from a math and science standpoint to make it a reality. I was hooked, and I know many others were as well.

Of course, you had your detractors. For reasons I didn't understand, the ferocious energy you had for Craps began to leak out and go in their direction. There was about, what, 5 people really griping your ass? But then again, you had a good 4 or 5 people on your side, and countless other lurkers on who were following your moves. It reminded me a lot of 98steps, whose Craps system drew a ton of heat, a lot of sour comments, but he kept his head down and carried on. I expected you to follow suit. But for some reason, comments from the peanut gallery completely shook you.

Within weeks, it had devolved from a serious Craps excersize to little more than a non-stop pissing match, with every single barb having to be answered for and challenged. It became a joke.

None of it; not the cancellation of your TV show, the shut down of the experiment, or this new smarmy, sarcastic version of Ahigh is anyone's fault but yours. Quite frankly, I don't understand a single bit of it. The Ahigh that caught my attention; the determined, curious, information seeking version I first knew, is completely gone. All we're left with is a guy that posts 100% sarcasm in every Craps thread there is.

If you still had that passion for the quest for knowledge you came here with, you'd still have it. 5 or 6 smartasses on the internet is going to change that? Pfft, c'mon bud. You don't owe us jack. We don't owe you jack. But to somehow imply or even honestly think that it is somehow the people of this board that stopped your quest for knowledge, well, that's a thought I literally cannot comprehend.

When people make grandiose claims here, 9 times out of 10 they will get challenged (the other 1 is ignored). The people who are honest and true weather the storm, gain respect and consideration by doing so, and they carry on. 98steps is a perfect example. He was wrong, but he completed his journey to knowledge, and did so, I think, in good standing with all here. It was long, at times tense, wasn't always pretty, but damnit, it got done, and plenty of people learned a shit ton of things about the game of Craps.

If you really are interested in what you claimed from the beginning, then the only thing stopping you is you. The same 5ish people will rag you, the same 5ish people will have your back, and the same handfuls of lurkers will lurk on in interest. But listen to me, Ahigh; you have the equipment and the passion to make your mark on the Craps world. And not some piss poor blurb in some lost article, but the biggest most definitive Craps experiment ever created. If not for allowing yourself to be distracted, you might already be there. And probably the saddest part of all, I don't see how you could fail. Even if you prove yourself wrong, Jesus Christ man, even if you prove it still inconclusive, the amount of information you could put out could last hundreds of years, the same as people still talk about Thorpe and will still talk about Thorpe for all these years and years to come. The fact that you blame a handful of poo-poo'ers for preventing you from continuing... I have to pretend it's a joke. Because if it's true, I find it crushingly sad.

"The saddest thing in the world is wasted talent" - Lorenzo Anello (Robert DeNiro) "A Bronx Tale"

Hi Alan:

I know there is a debate about the words "dice influencing," "dice control," "rhythmic rolling," "rhythm rolling" but I just consider all of them synonyms. I prefer using the term "dice control" because it sounds more powerful than the other three but, again, I just think of these words as synonyms.

Shooters try for greater and greater levels of on-axis performance because then other things are possible with dice control but a shooter who just has average axis control (and using the Hardway set) is still a controlled shooter if the SRR shows he is. His casino play, given some time, should start to reflect that too but I know controlled shooters can go through awful stretches --- I certainly have.

I also believe that controlled shooting is not controlled for every shot. Sometimes the dice leave your hands and you know the shot is random --- you just pray like all the other gamblers at that moment. Sometimes the shot hits chips that probably randomizes the throw; and at almost all times the back wall reduces the control of the shot. So as rolls become longer there are plenty of times when you actually do need a little help from Lady Luck. I've never hid this fact in my writing but somehow it gets lost in the shuffle.

Hi Ahigh:

I have no problem with criticism. I usually don't answer people who are sarcastic or call me names since there is no point in doing so. The animus of some people can be extraordinary. But Alan and EvenBob are both intelligent guys and they have their opinions. Alan ventured into the world of dice control a while ago so he even has personal experiences that taught him it doesn't work.

I am actually not trying to prove dice control exists because you can't write about it, no matter how intelligent you think your arguments are, and convince people of anything. Many people have to be shown. That's fine. When I was with Golden Touch, we had a money-back policy. If at the end of the weekend you were not satisfied we would return your tuition. Period. No questions asked. In my 10 years with Golden Touch not one student asked for his or her money back. I'm assuming that policy still exists.

Hi Midwestgb:

Do not publish your own book. Getting the book distributed is almost impossible. As an analogy, you might recall some of the film makers at the Academy Awards thanking their distributors, the companies that got their films into the actual theaters. Getting a film out there is more than just making the film; you need a company that sells the film to the actual theaters. Same holds true for publishing.

Now, if you send your book to various publishers and it is constantly rejected, get used to rejections. I have so many books, plays, screenplays just sitting in my attic after I gave it my all to get them published or bought -- that you must have a thick skin. Here is my latest example. The last six books I wrote have been for Triumph Books, which was a division of Random House (Random House has since sold the company). These books are excellent sellers. I've made Random House some decent money.

So I wrote my editor and pitched a non-casino book to them (and remember I made the company money); "Bless Me Father for I Have Sinned: Confessions of a Wayward Catholic" --- the book is great (I have no humility here). The answer from my editor was "No." Just one word "No." He didn't see fit to let me down easily by asking to look at a chapter or at least look at the table of contents and then say, "It isn't for us"; he just said "No." The following week I signed a two-book deal with the company for two more gambling books.

If there is no chance a publisher will buy the book, I'd recommend going the ebook route. Here you have a shot to get it read. I may do that with my "Confessions of a Wayward Catholic" if publishing houses start saying "no" to it.

Okay, time for bed. I'm getting up in three hours to go swimming.

Quote: FrankScoblete

I haven't seen your throw or landings but check out your ring finger. It is possible that finger is out of alignment with the other two. I'm just guessing now. Of course, "below random" means your throw isn't random. In reality there is no below random; it is either random or not. I use the "below random" statements but it actually means not random.

A biased throw is still random. It is just a different probability distribution from one where all six sides on both dice are equally likely.

(Assumption that a biased throw exists)

thecesspit, that is a great way to look at it --- by changing the probabilities with a controlled throw, you set up a new set of random results. (Yes, you do have to have the ability to do this.)

Now, one step further. Since the new probabilities are being paid off by the casino as if they were the old probabilities, the player edge is established because of that. For example, if the six is being hit more than 5 times out of 36 (just for an example, say 6 times per 36 rolls), but is still being paid 7 to 6 on a place bet (the house mistakenly thinking it has manipulated the payout to give itself the edge) then the player now has the edge.

New random probabilities. Old payouts. Possible player edge. This is establishing a new set of probabilities; the casino lagging with an old set of payments.

Obviously, it would be hard to figure all of this out for a controlled shooter because everyone is different and the skill is dynamic; still, I think what you wrote is a great way to describe what is happening.

If I am right in moving further on the assumption you created, I'd like to use this in an article or in a book. I'd give you full credit either handle or real name --- your choice.

Just let me know.

Quote: FrankScoblete

thecesspit, that is a great way to look at it --- by changing the probabilities with a controlled throw, you set up a new set of random results. (Yes, you do have to have the ability to do this.)

Now, one step further. Since the new probabilities are being paid off by the casino as if they were the old probabilities, the player edge is established because of that. For example, if the six is being hit more than 5 times out of 36 (just for an example, say 6 times per 36 rolls), but is still being paid 7 to 6 on a place bet (the house mistakenly thinking it has manipulated the payout to give itself the edge) then the player now has the edge.

New random probabilities. Old payouts. Possible player edge. This is establishing a new set of probabilities; the casino lagging with an old set of payments.

I hope this isn't news to you. It's obvious that changing the die face distribution away from uniform (p=1/6 for each) leads to new EVs for each craps bet. If that wasn't the basis of your prior books, what was?

Note that increasing the frequency of the six isn't sufficient to establish a player edge on the place 6 bet. Increasing the frequency of six vs. seven is what's required. If you increase both the frequency of six *and* seven at the same ratio, the edge on the place 6 bet doesn't change. Similarly, if you decrease the frequency of seven (seemingly the goal of the SRR measurement) but also decrease the frequency of six by the same amount, you haven't done yourself any favors vis-a-vis the place 6 bet.

That's why SRR is a useless measurement. SRR doesn't provide sufficient information to compute the altered edge on any bets other than the Any 7 bet (which you shouldn't really care about anyway) -- and therefore doesn't provide enough detail on how to bet under the assumption that you have the ability to alter the probabilities. I'm not opining on whether that's actually possible in a casino setting, but that's unrelated to the discussion of how to bet under the assumption you can.

Quote: MathExtremist

I hope this isn't news to you. It's obvious that changing the die face distribution away from uniform (p=1/6 for each) leads to new EVs for each craps bet. If that wasn't the basis of your prior books, what was?

Note that increasing the frequency of the six isn't sufficient to establish a player edge on the place 6 bet. Increasing the frequency of six vs. seven is what's required. If you increase both the frequency of six *and* seven at the same ratio, the edge on the place 6 bet doesn't change. Similarly, if you decrease the frequency of seven (seemingly the goal of the SRR measurement) but also decrease the frequency of six by the same amount, you haven't done yourself any favors vis-a-vis the place 6 bet.

That's why SRR is a useless measurement. SRR doesn't provide sufficient information to compute the altered edge on any bets other than the Any 7 bet (which you shouldn't really care about anyway) -- and therefore doesn't provide enough detail on how to bet under the assumption that you have the ability to alter the probabilities. I'm not opining on whether that's actually possible in a casino setting, but that's unrelated to the discussion of how to bet under the assumption you can.

When we were talking about the dice being biased, I made an excel spreadsheet to just illuminate the modified edges for various unequal distributions of face outcomes from one through sixth.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/13148-bad-dice-the-saga-continues/28/#post227534

That being said, I have no evidence that the faces that appear can be controlled at all from my own throws.

I would love a demonstration of this, though.

Yesterday at Red Rock, I heard a disgusted player leaving after losing a grand saying "yeah and all the sevens were 6-1 seven outs."

No doubt word has traveled about the theory of biased dice.

It's how he said it and the coupling of old payoffs for new probabilties.

Quote: FrankScoblete

thecesspit, that is a great way to look at it ---
by changing the probabilities with a controlled throw, you set up a new set of random results.

But is it not also true that
every set of 36 rolls by anyone at any time has a new set of random results.

And over many sets of 36 the probabilities of each outcome is converging to a certain value, with or without bias.
if there are less 7s what are there less of and more of in the other #s?

Variance in a multinomial distribution.

You and I may not understand this concept but ME sure does.

My software gives me sets to use that raise the expected # to seven ratio for all 10 outcomes besides seven.

I then have charts when aiming for two sets of numbers with fewer sevens.

The only time I have ever been banned from shooting was while I was with Teddy consulting with this chart to change my set on each throw.

I had a long roll, but it wasn't anything super duper special.

But the ratio to sevens is what my software looks at .. fewer sevens and MORE of what you want to hit .. both.

Quote: MathExtremist

That's why SRR is a useless measurement. SRR doesn't provide sufficient information to compute the altered edge on any bets other than the Any 7 bet....

I agree with MathExtremist about the value of the SRR statistic. My added concern is that someone might be avoiding the seven but all of their other throws are numbers you are not betting on, for example horn numbers, or 4s and 10s while you are betting the inside.

If you are really going to test for dice influencing it has to be a test of the success rate for passes (or don't pass for a darkside player) and for hitting the numbers that are bet.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I agree with MathExtremist about the value of the SRR statistic. My added concern is that someone might be avoiding the seven but all of their other throws are numbers you are not betting on, for example horn numbers, or 4s and 10s while you are betting the inside.

If you are really going to test for dice influencing it has to be a test of the success rate for passes (or don't pass for a darkside player) and for hitting the numbers that are bet.

May I point out that if we collectively spent more time throwing dice than complaining about odds we could all be gtc players. Srr isn't as important it is a metrics to base decisions and examine performance. Like pitch and axis control.
Ahigh has the right idea.
Also when I changed my grip I had better results but lost axis control in one die?
The three biggest things I noticed release angle, grip and speed changed my overall results.

But Ahigh has no pitch or axis control.

Quote: FrankScoblete

thecesspit, that is a great way to look at it --- by changing the probabilities with a controlled throw, you set up a new set of random results. (Yes, you do have to have the ability to do this.)

You set up a new probability distribution. And as MathExtremist says, you need to know all the numbers to work on it.

Quote:

If I am right in moving further on the assumption you created, I'd like to use this in an article or in a book. I'd give you full credit either handle or real name --- your choice.

Just let me know.

Sure, but I'm not sure I've said anything of great insight. I've edited it so I took out my ham-fisted tablet-typing.

I slightly disagree with MathExtremist of Rolls to Seven Ratios : It is useful as a testable claim. And if a player does have a 6.3 RSR, over X thousand rolls to give a high level of confidence, it does indicate they should look at what other numbers could be profitable. And of course, you can use software to do that, or use all the rolls to calculate your own personal probability function for chucking dice. And of course, RSR of 6, could still mean an advantage on one number (if I roll 6 6/36 times and 8 4/36 times, for example).

Quote: thecesspit

You set up a new probability distribution. And as MathExtremist says, you need to know all the numbers to work on it.

Well, this is one thing that Smart Craps program does automatically. Even in the shareware version.
From the Pro Test Player Edge section

While not immediately obvious, it is possible to convert Pro Test results into game expectations. To do so, you need to know:
· The rules of the craps game you are playing in, such as the odds and pay schedule.
· The specific bets you are going to make.
· The dice sets you will use at each point in the throwing cycle.
· Your Pro Test results.
Smart Craps has two ways for you to determine your edge in the game:
1) Exact mathematical analysis for given simple bets (such as pass, or don't pass, with or without odds).

Converting Pro Test results to exact player expectation
Normally for a random shooter, each of the 36 dice outcomes has exactly 1 in 36 chance of occurring.
For dice setters, the odds will vary for each potential outcome in a predictable manner.
Once we have a combination of Pro Test results (a shooter may only pass one or two tests, or possibly all three),
these can be converted into specific probabilities for each of the 36 outcomes.

I did not pass one of the 3 test the first few times I did try
but the program did say I had a small edge on a few bets with the results I entered.
I have not tried any new rolls to see different results.

A question for Frank... Is it worthwhile to seek out "Biased Dice" (die that, for a variety of reasons, are not true balanced cubes), to increase the player's chance for success at the Craps table? If so, how does one identify them, and take advantage?

Really?

Biased dice? I really don't think those exist in the Vegas casinos or AC or any major casino. It is possible that dice wear out somewhat differently but these would be miniscule changes and probably not affect the game. Casinos do change their dice every so-many hours. I just don't see purposely putting in biased dice. Also, if I were a shady kind of employee I'd tell my relatives how those dice behaved and cost the casino a load of money.

In craps, the casino has a rather large edge over most of the players. Just look at the bets people make. You don't need biased dice when you have biased payouts.

Quote: FrankScoblete

Biased dice? I really don't think those exist in the Vegas casinos or AC or any major casino. It is possible that dice wear out somewhat differently but these would be miniscule changes and probably not affect the game. Casinos do change their dice every so-many hours. I just don't see purposely putting in biased dice. Also, if I were a shady kind of employee I'd tell my relatives how those dice behaved and cost the casino a load of money.

In craps, the casino has a rather large edge over most of the players. Just look at the bets people make. You don't need biased dice when you have biased payouts.

Thank you for the response Frank. I appreciate your participation.

Quote: FrankScoblete

Biased dice? I really don't think those exist in the Vegas casinos or AC or any major casino. It is possible that dice wear out somewhat differently but these would be miniscule changes and probably not affect the game. Casinos do change their dice every so-many hours. I just don't see purposely putting in biased dice. Also, if I were a shady kind of employee I'd tell my relatives how those dice behaved and cost the casino a load of money.

In craps, the casino has a rather large edge over most of the players. Just look at the bets people make. You don't need biased dice when you have biased payouts.

I also want to thank you for the response Frank. It's good to see some rational thought for a change.

Quote: FrankScoblete

Biased dice? I really don't think those exist in the Vegas casinos or AC or any major casino.

Thank god, the voice of reason and experience. We've
had a raging battle here over biased dice lately. Harley
the Masked Man was a huge proponent of it and he got
himself banned. Where were you a couple weeks ago
when we needed you, Frank..

all dice are biased....the frickin' 7 always shows at the exact wrong time, all the time, and on time.

So we're approved to refer to circle jerking in the forum are we?

Let me remind everyone that I was saying the same thing about biased dice before that you guys are saying now.

I love you answer, but at the same time rational and convenient are totally opposing views. I think you guys are siding with convenient.

0.00% on the math means there is an edge, it's just defined by the long term characteristics of how the dice are manufactured.

They are not symmetrical.

Therefore there is bias.

It's a very simple straightforward point that you simply cannot ignore.

You can marginalize it and say it's not important.

But you can't wish it away as a matter of convenience.

But absolutely, let's not talk about it; just realize that hoping the bias doesn't exist isn't enough.

It's there. You just don't want to think about it because of the cognitive dissonance.

Fine. Just don't pretend you know more about it or Frank is an authority so his answer is more correct.

Sorry to inform you, Harley is the king of knowledge here; mask or not; banned or not; he owns all of you when it comes to knowing the dice.

The end.

Quote: Ahigh

Fine. Just don't pretend you know more about it or Frank is an authority so his answer is more correct...Harley is the king of knowledge here; mask or not; banned or not; he owns all of you when it comes to knowing the dice.
.

Frank is certainly more of an expert than you. And Harley
is a legend in his own mind, mask and all. For the King
of Knowledge he sure didn't last long here. Not very
smart for the King..

Quote: EvenBob

Frank is certainly more of an expert than you. And Harley
is a legend in his own mind, mask and all. For the King
of Knowledge he sure didn't last long here. Not very
smart for the King..

Not on balanced or percentage dice. Look I don't care to talk about it either, but Frank can speak for himself if he is more knowledgeable on the subject. He gave an opinion with no data at all to back it up. He doesn't know more about it. Puhlease...

Why you guys are still bringing the subject up is the real question.