Is Dice Control Real? Can It Be Tested?
ZCore13
Quote: Ibeatyouraces
People that are not AP's can and do get barred due to win threshholds.
I just want to know which states he's been barred from.
Quote: EvenBob100% correct.
You need to add some decimal places to assert your authority. That's 100.00000%
You wouldn't want anyone to think you were being just sloppy and rounding up when you truly know something as obvious as whether or not I'm being sarcastic.
And I only unblocked your post to read it because I like you SOOOOO much!
Having an SRR of 7 after 500 rolls does not mean you will have an SRR of 7 after 10,000 rolls. Having an SRR of 7 after 500 rolls means that you shoot better than 92.5% of other shooters with luck. That means that in a group of 1000 random rollers at a craps table, there will be (about) 75 people who just throw the dice without thought who will have a SRR of 7 or greater. However, only (about) 5 of them will have an SRR of 8 or higher.
Now if you have an SRR of 7 after 2,250 rolls then you're in that 99.9% percentile, and if you were to have a nice controlled and consistent roll, and showed the table (and a video) with your results, then i might believe DI is possible. I'm still waiting to see it.
A-high has the equipment and the table. At three hours a day, it would take about a week to come up with the rolls required to show that you have influnce. A-high could speed the video up to 10 times and post the videos. At 124 minutes in length, it would be like watching a really boring documentary, but the proof would be there.
So, it's so easy to illustrate the proof, but all of the "proof" is anecdotal.
So, craps players, if you have a SRR of 7.0 or higher and you know it, give a-high a call. Go over there for 7 nights for three hours a night and throw the dice 360 times each night. Put the video on uTube and the result set online for examination. Ahigh will provice the dice. He has lots of them. Give him the first 20 throws of the night as practice.
Then i will believe that dice influence is real. Maybe the Wizard should put up a bet for the player who does it. If the player wins, he gets paid an amount at say 4x odds and the banker pays $1,000 for A-high's home rental. If the banker wins, the player pays for A-high's home rental and the bet (perhaps $10,000 might be reasonable).
We could make this like the HB challenge. Get a syndicate of people to bet against the person who believes they have an SRR of 7 or greater and has the statiscal proof.
That would send the craps world upside down if true.
There's nothing to lose for A-high: $1,000 of monitoring and home use is probably worth it to him, and it gets paid by the player or banker depending who wins, and the person wiht the SRR of 7 comes out a significant amount of money ahead if he's telling the truth. A-high can't bet on the result.
Any takers?
Just looking at the 2998 rolls you have posted in 200 roll blocks,Quote: AhighAnd my performance has been identified as nothing worthy of proof.
And yet I have high RSR's in sessions of 200 rolls.
knowing you were not really trying to roll less 7s all the time, maybe you were...
you have some high above average, some around average and some below average (average = 6.00)
24 - 200 - 8.33
28 - 200 - 7.14
31 - 200 - 6.45
40 - 200 - 5
29 - 200 - 6.9
37 - 200 - 5.41
29 - 200 - 6.9
20 - 200 - 10
33 - 200 - 6.06
31 - 200 - 6.45
32 - 200 - 6.25
41 - 200 - 4.88
21 - 200 - 9.52
32 - 200 - 6.25
35 - 198 - 5.66
total
463 - 2998 - 6.475
Looks like there never was 2 sessions below 6.0 in a row.
This looks like an advantage to me.
Only you will know what the next 3000 rolls will be like after you roll them.
You may have an idea from your past rolls before you start.
Many would be willing to bet you that your SRR currently of 6.475 will be lower after then next 3000 rolls
You may want to take that bet
Good Luck
Quote: IbeatyouracesI think he said Mississippi.
Mississippi's excluded persons list:
http://www.msgamingcommission.com/index.php/exclusion_list
Nevada's:
http://www.gaming.nv.gov/index.aspx?page=72
Quote: MathExtremistMississippi's excluded persons list:
http://www.msgamingcommission.com/index.php/exclusion_list
Nevada's:
http://www.gaming.nv.gov/index.aspx?page=72
Maybe he's on a super super secret excluded list..
Quote: Zcore13Not from whole states.
ZCore13
The narrator said Frank and Dominator had been banned
from gambling in entire states for winning too much. How
would he know that if they didn't tell him.
You used to have this before in ask the wizard #81Quote: WizardI have a new page on the probability of a random roller surviving 1 to 200 rolls in craps. As always, I welcome all comments.
FYI, S.N Either (who knew) has a closed form solution for this. Some great math work.
forum 2+2 shows a link to that page but no data.
You also had a large table on your ask craps page too.
That all disappeared a few years ago when you updated your site.
All my craps links became messed up and I gave up updating them.
You may have missed my earlier post about it.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/13499-is-dice-control-real-can-it-be-tested/6/#post230699
You were quoted in the papers when Grandma Pat had her 154 roll hand in 2009
But all that info is now missing from WoO.
Thank You for all the excellent work!
Quote: WizardI have a new page on the probability of a random roller surviving 1 to 200 rolls in craps. As always, I welcome all comments.
Here's one thing I noticed about the post after yours, and this is right up your alley:
There are 33 individuals who have been banned from Gaming in Nevada and are on the list. Of those thirty-three individuals, six of them have the middle name of Joseph. Two of the individuals have the first/middle name combination of, "John Joseph."
1.) What is the probability, in a random sample of 32 males, that at least six of them will have the middle name Joseph?
2.) What is the probability, in a random sample of 32 males, that at least two of them will have the exact name, John Joseph?
I still believe that FrankS believes that it does take many rolls to prove a SRR of say greater than 7Quote: boymimboFrank is not an expert in dice control. He is an expert in selling his books and methods and he believes strongly in them. Great.
Having an SRR of 7 after 500 rolls does not mean you will have an SRR of 7 after 10,000 rolls. Having an SRR of 7 after 500 rolls means that you shoot better than 92.5% of other shooters with luck. That means that in a group of 1000 random rollers at a craps table, there will be (about) 75 people who just throw the dice without thought who will have a SRR of 7 or greater. However, only (about) 5 of them will have an SRR of 8 or higher.
Now if you have an SRR of 7 after 2,250 rolls then you're in that 99.9% percentile, and if you were to have a nice controlled and consistent roll, and showed the table (and a video) with your results, then i might believe DI is possible. I'm still waiting to see it.
but still had a mathematician (Don Catlin) do a few 200 million roll simulation based on exactly a constant 7SRR and even higher
and we should all know that is at least a 1 in 28 billion shot over just 10k rolls.
So what the "expert" says is one thing, but in reality NO one over say 30,000 rolls will ever have an SRR of 7 or higher in a casino or at home with fair dice.
I would believe with even 10k rolls BTW.
Ahigh still has a lot of work to get there.
But he will be happy with anything over 6.0 and even happier with say 6.329 at about a 1 in 100 shot.
Quote: Mission146Quote: WizardI have a new page on the probability of a random roller surviving 1 to 200 rolls in craps. As always, I welcome all comments.
Here's one thing I noticed about the post after yours, and this is right up your alley:
There are 33 individuals who have been banned from Gaming in Nevada and are on the list. Of those thirty-three individuals, six of them have the middle name of Joseph. Two of the individuals have the first/middle name combination of, "John Joseph."
1.) What is the probability, in a random sample of 32 males, that at least six of them will have the middle name Joseph?
2.) What is the probability, in a random sample of 32 males, that at least two of them will have the exact name, John Joseph?
Wrong question. What's the chances in a random sample, six of thirty two males have the same middle name.
Otherwise you will be data mining. Which is of course relevant to the current debate... :)
Quote: MathExtremistMississippi's excluded persons list:
http://www.msgamingcommission.com/index.php/exclusion_list
Nevada's:
http://www.gaming.nv.gov/index.aspx?page=72
Just to clear some things up here: You guys do know that the above links do not contain everyone that's banned from a casino or casinos within the states shown, right?
When you're banned for winning, counting cards, etc... your name will NOT appear on those lists.
These are simply people that are not allowed to gamble within the casinos because of certain criminal convictions. If your name is on that list, then you've likely been convicted of a felony within that state involving organized crime and/or gambling.
-Keyser
The Wizard "I've issued that challenge for years.Quote: Zcore13That's kind of why I asked for the Wiz's opinion on how many rolls would be a fair amount in his opinion to constitute a fair challenge.ZCore13
However, it would take a sample size of about 10,000 rolls to prove anything.
Even the believers admit the degree of influence they have is slight,
and it would take a huge sample size to tease it out of the expected randomness."
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/7093-wong-and-dice-control/#post102654
Fair challenge.
The Wizard's offer to me was fair, though. And I won. Handily within the parameters of my expectations.
Fair challenge.
But even that challenge was an eked out gain with much negotiating towards fairness before beginning.
Fair challenge.
Here's a "fair" challenge! You guys should work more towards being fair!
Quote: 7craps"I've issued that challenge for years.
However, it would take a sample size of about 10,000 rolls to prove anything.
Even the believers admit the degree of influence they have is slight,
and it would take a huge sample size to tease it out of the expected randomness."
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/7093-wong-and-dice-control/#post102654
10,000 rolls would not be hard to do at a home or practice table. With no betting or other things to slow things down, i'm guessing one could roll every 20 seconds if a grip needs to be gotten? 3 rolls a minute. 180 rolls an hour. Do that for a few hours a day. It would only take about 30 days. The Wiz never answered, but 10,000 rolls would seem a pretty fair sample size. Why can't someone do this with un-edited footage of it all?
ZCore13
That was the Wizard's answer from another thread.Quote: Zcore13Why can't someone do this with un-edited footage of it all?ZCore13
I seem to recall watching some videos of Ahigh rolling the dice. I think more is coming
easier for me to watch while listening to some CCR, CSN or Laura Nyro
you continue to be funny, you go on and on about craps and indicate at every turn that
you cant influence the dice you cant control the dice, the set makes no difference..
Why in the world do you spend any time with craps if nothing makes any difference,
you yourself cant be any good if what ever "you" makes no difference.
All the people that play craps may as well get drunk and play the game.
Dice sitter.
oh by the way..... two members of our craps team got together last night and before we
played we understood our throw makes no difference, where we stand at the table makes
no difference, our set makes no difference..... but understanding all that we played anyway, had a total of
9 hands.... 41 37 and 3 in the twenties 1 in the teens and 3 short rolls.
We both walked off the table with over 8 times our buy in...
Now we both understand that was luck and the hard 6 , 8 10 we had were luck, and repeating
6 & 8 after 6 & 8 was luck, we understand that, but as long as we contnue to be so lucky, we going
keep practicing daily, not to get any better, but just to stay as lucky as we are.
remember, dice control does not work this is all luck
ZCore13
Ofcourse i can lose... i am 65 years old and and a diabetic........ i hope i have a number of years yet where
my hands are good enough to hold the dice properly, our team is 65, 66, 68, 66, so none of us are the
age of many on here. I only wish i knew at 40 what i know now... i wish some of you younger guys would
quit making excuses and do this...
dicesitter
Even random shooters who don't bother to set the dice and throw them like their feeding chickens win. What makes you so sure there is some skill behind your wins?
Besides that I wish you good health. As you may have read after 32 years of being an insulin dependent diabetic I suffered kidney failure. But I was blessed with a combination kidney/pancreas transplant and am no longer diabetic. I still have the effects of years of diabetic damage including damage to my eyes. My hands shake from the anti rejection drugs I take for the transplants.
Stay well.
I am so glad you had some help for your health. this stuff can be so very hard. IT would nice if you
could get some improvement in those areas.
In terms of our team.....i cant speak for them, buy i keep track of what i do. I count the number of
6 & 8 along with my roll count. If i dont have over 30% i cut my bet way back. I want a 5-7%
advantage over random on the 6 & 8. and i usually get that. I just got done with a set of 36 rolls, i
had 13 6 & 8.... that gives me a good edge.
OUr team is old, but we all are very successful business people before we retired. we dont have time
for games.... if this did not work, If Franks classes did not help, all of us would be the first to say so.
They indicated if you get an account for craps, and build it up with wins you can increase your starting
bet and also be able to have fun without losing your home.... Well the first two times i tried, i lost it
all. i had ups and downs , large wins and more loses. The past year i have finally started to understand
my throw and the game, what i can and can not do. and my account is growing and i am having a ball.
But you need to keep working, the last couple of weeks i am losing my axis control, it is not as consistant
as it has been. So today i reached out to two very good dice setters, and they helped and tonight
was much better. Our team gets together and we practice, and work out problems.
All i can say is my records indicates it works for me.... my pocketbook shows that as well , my wife
certainly questioned the cost of the classes, but now she is 100% behind this effort and has enjoyed
many good nights with me, and enjoys trips with my team. I started this when i was 62 and my main question
is why do this, it could take years.... and it did, i am now 65 and glad i started.
dicesetter.
Quote: teddysI am working on a controlled throw. I throw the dice as high as possible in a looping arc so that the dice look like they are going to fly out of the table and hit the person on the other end. Then at the last possible second they swing back and come in right under the lip of the table. It is hilarious to watch the other players reactions.
Yes! This is great. I like to work on a controlled throw to hit people who have their hands in after the dice are out.
Quote: boymimboA-high has the equipment and the table. At three hours a day, it would take about a week to come up with the rolls required to show that you have influnce. A-high could speed the video up to 10 times and post the videos. At 124 minutes in length, it would be like watching a really boring documentary, but the proof would be there.
So, it's so easy to illustrate the proof, but all of the "proof" is anecdotal.
So, craps players, if you have a SRR of 7.0 or higher and you know it, give a-high a call. Go over there for 7 nights for three hours a night and throw the dice 360 times each night. Put the video on uTube and the result set online for examination. Ahigh will provice the dice. He has lots of them. Give him the first 20 throws of the night as practice.
Then i will believe that dice influence is real. Maybe the Wizard should put up a bet for the player who does it. If the player wins, he gets paid an amount at say 4x odds and the banker pays $1,000 for A-high's home rental. If the banker wins, the player pays for A-high's home rental and the bet (perhaps $10,000 might be reasonable).
We could make this like the HB challenge. Get a syndicate of people to bet against the person who believes they have an SRR of 7 or greater and has the statiscal proof.
That would send the craps world upside down if true.
There's nothing to lose for A-high: $1,000 of monitoring and home use is probably worth it to him, and it gets paid by the player or banker depending who wins, and the person wiht the SRR of 7 comes out a significant amount of money ahead if he's telling the truth. A-high can't bet on the result.
Any takers?
That would be a great challenge. The parameters could be tweaked but the framework is there. I would bet on it!
In general, I believe the problem is the lack of motivation for anyone to be subject to the feedback of the members of this forum.
I know for a fact that Frank was very upset about how he was treated on this forum, and he's no longer around.
The forum is a very hostile place for people who believe in controlled shooting.
I am the only glutton for punishment you guys got. So you can talk smack about my lack of ability to shoot, but you can't say I'm afraid of the spotlight or the criticisms.
Nobody to this point is afraid of my shot that I know of out there taking bets against my throw in the casinos.
Nobody watching my shows exclaims "WOW THIS GUY IS THE BEST SHOOTER EVER!!!"
But at the same time, there is nobody better on display, so I'm all ya got!
If more of you guys actually lived in Vegas, you could follow up and hear the stories of my rolls in real casinos from players and dealers around here.
But most of you guys are not even Vegas locals and are just like flies on the walls of the true stories of what's happening here in Vegas every day.
That matters more than what happens on the Ahigh show anyway, and that's the real story that will never be known with 100% certainty as I do my bigger bets when nobody but the dealers are watching.
And absolutely I have been known to both win and lose huge when other players are not there to observe.
Some dealers will tell if you lived here and asked around.
Problem: Could the problem be it can not be done.( ? )
Frank: I think he knew what was coming and wasn't upset.
Punishment: You are definitely not afraid of criticisms. In fact, the criticisms put you in the spotlight and that is what you are really after.
Your shot: Your right, anybody that has seen your shot would say...that's random, but I still like reading yours and others craps reports.
Vegas: You don't want naysayers living here exposing the randomness. Whats happening here every day is just that...happening there every day.
Bigger bets: This is where its at. Knowing you are randomly throwing more hardways,or ( for the same reason ) that dicesitter is rolling the hell out of the 6 and 8 tonite and have the sense to bet on it.
Quote: mdhAhigh
Problem: Could the problem be it can not be done.( ? )
Frank: I think he knew what was coming and wasn't upset.
Punishment: You are definitely not afraid of criticisms. In fact, the criticisms put you in the spotlight and that is what you are really after.
Your shot: Your right, anybody that has seen your shot would say...that's random, but I still like reading yours and others craps reports.
Vegas: You don't want naysayers living here exposing the randomness. Whats happening here every day is just that...happening there every day.
Bigger bets: This is where its at. Knowing you are randomly throwing more hardways,or ( for the same reason ) that dicesitter is rolling the hell out of the 6 and 8 tonite and have the sense to bet on it.
Problem: No even if someone just got extremely lucky, it could still serve as "proof" that it's possible to control the dice. So the problem is not that it can't be done. If there is a problem it's that nobody is willing to risk the public humility of failing to demonstrate enough of a bias to make it worth their while in trying.
Frank: No he posted on facebook and other places for days about his thing about people being sarcastic on forums as he left. I think he was unhappy about how people treated him here. The first couple of times I started posting, I left for the same reason. He's not the only one, and I do think he was upset, even if he doesn't admit it, he was upset.
My shot: thanks for the feedback. I don't want a shot that looks controlled anyway. I want a shot that the statistics say is controlled, and I don't give a crap how it's getting more of any particular outcome as long as it is.
Vegas: Not sure I understand
Bigger bets: I have been increasing my bets slowly, but I've done some black-chip off-and-on betting a couple times now. Not from pressure, just going for it. I don't believe in pressure or betting on clumping. Flat betting and gradually increasing my bet denominations according to my bankroll is my plan. My BR is 13Gs.
Young blood here (26), at least in comparison to most of those who state their age on here. I live in Texas where there are no casinos, but I took to card counting and DI while working in Ohio. I have my own rig to practice on and have been putting in an hour of practice or more an average of 3 nights a week. This week I started recording my throws after I believed I was able to influence the dice. After 484 throws I have a RSR of 7.0145. Once I get to 5k rolls, I will use that as the end of my first recording. If my RSR is still over 6.5 I will begin the same process again, but will invest in a way to record all of it and edit it together sped up x10. I know that DI is possible. I've seen myself progress with my skill. I keep the right di on axis with consistency, but I throw a hardways set. A 1 or 6 with either 2-5 on the other die only loses on a 1-2 result. This washes even with the probability of a 5-6 result. I'm open to all criticism and advice. I'm young and I have more free time then some of you older guys to put something together that would help prove that DI is possible. Where does A-high live? I'd love to use his set up and take up a challenge to show that is possible as well.
Advice: Goto a dice board, this one will not help you. After all, if the sages here cannot throw a 92 mph fastball, then it cannot be done!
Honestly, I don't think anybody on this forum is all that interested in following up on this stuff anyway. But we can meet and see where it goes if you want.
Excellent. About a 1 in 12 shot.Quote: hardtenHi all.
Young blood here (26), at least in comparison to most of those who state their age on here.
I live in Texas where there are no casinos, but I took to card counting and DI while working in Ohio.
I have my own rig to practice on and have been putting in an hour of practice or more an average of 3 nights a week.
This week I started recording my throws after I believed I was able to influence the dice.
After 484 throws I have a RSR of 7.0145.
Or from 1 million trained Gorillas that roll the dice for bananas,
about 84,606 of them would do exactly what you did or even better.
That would be about a 1 in 154 shot for a random roller or any GorillaQuote: hardtenOnce I get to 5k rolls, I will use that as the end of my first recording.
If my RSR is still over 6.5 I will begin the same process again,
but will invest in a way to record all of it and edit it together sped up x10.
FrankS reccommends using Smart Craps software. It is shareware and free to try out.
Only place where it really counts for real $$$ is in a real casinoQuote: hardtenI know that DI is possible. I've seen myself progress with my skill.
I keep the right die on axis with consistency, but I throw a hardways set.
A 1 or 6 with either 2-5 on the other die only loses on a 1-2 result.
This washes even with the probability of a 5-6 result.
Problem from solicited advice from other DIs is everyone will give you different advice.Quote: hardtenI'm open to all criticism and advice..
AlanM says he can tell from just one throw if you may "have the skill" by how slow, soft your dice roll is
Ahigh laughs at that belief, watch his videos and make your own conclusion.
Others say your skill will come and go, even during the same session.
(nothing like variance, blame it on having a bad day)
get in and get out fast others will say.
IMO, Keep your skills a secret and have your team beat up the casinos.
(Even if you are the only one in your team)
But do not tell anyone.
That will just ruin it all for the rest of the DIs out there.
Do not pay anyone to learn more or to assist you in getting better.
There are many good DIs that do not charge any $$$ to teach DI skills and lessons,
unlike FrankS who is in it for the $$$ only IMHO.
Good Luck
ps: watch out for biased dice made in Mexico and China
All of this talk about seven-to-rolls-ratios and so forth means nothing unless you are compiling these numbers in casino conditions where 7s on the come out are "good" and everywhere else are "bad."
A true dice influencer should be improving the number of 7s on the come outs, and decreasing the number of 7s on everything but the come out.
that you can keep rolling the dice on your practice rigs and home tables is meaningless unless the 7s are put into context of what they would mean in an actual game situation.
Quote: hardtenWhere does A-high live? I'd love to use his set up and take up a challenge to show that is possible as well.
Welcome Hardten, please do send a private message to Ahigh and set up a show, we've been waiting for that! His internet TV show needs some action!
Quote: AlanMendelsonA true dice influencer should be improving the number of 7s on the come outs...
Actually, DI strategies for the comeout differ, but I think most primarily try to avoid craps numbers on the come-out, rather than try to increase the number of sevens on the comeout. On the other hand, if one sets the 4-3/5-2, one is essentially avoiding craps numbers while simultaneously trying to roll a seven.
Quote: AlanMendelsonthat you can keep rolling the dice on your practice rigs and home tables is meaningless unless the 7s are put into context of what they would mean in an actual game situation.
Any consistency that one can achieve on a practice rig is not meaningless -- especially if that trend departs from conventional mathematical expectations.
Quote: 7craps
IMO, Keep your skills a secret and have your team beat up the casinos.
(Even if you are the only one in your team)
But do not tell anyone.
That will just ruin it all for the rest of the DIs out there.
Do not pay anyone to learn more or to assist you in getting better.
There are many good DIs that do not charge any $$$ to teach DI skills and lessons,
unlike FrankS who is in it for the $$$ only IMHO
This is great advice with one exception. Everybody needs coaches(mentors) in life and DI is no exception. This may cost money.
Quote: tuppActually, DI strategies for the comeout differ, but I think most primarily try to avoid craps numbers on the come-out, rather than try to increase the number of sevens on the comeout.
Of course that's true, but just throwing dice on a practice rig without determining if a roll has hit a point (repeater) or is a come out roll doesnt allow anyone to accurately measure a true SRR.
For example, let's say you threw the following on your practice rig:
6-2-6-2-2-2-3-8-3-3-9-2-7 you might claim to have a SRR of 1 in 13
But do that on a real craps table with a passline bet of $10 and come bets of $10 each with full odds and what does that get you?
6 point establish, $50 odds $60 at risk
2 loss $10 come lose $10
6 pass, pays $70 back to even $
2 loss $10 on the come out
2 loss $10 on the come out
2 loss $10 on the come out
3 loss $10 on the come out
8 point establish, $50 odds $60 at risk
3 loss $10 on the come
3 loss $10 on the come
9 come bet $10 with $40 odds $50 at risk
2 loss of $10 on the come
7 out
total loss for this SRR of 1 in 13 is $180
Ask yourself this, why doesn't any of the really smart gamblers like Bob Dancer, The Wizard ,Stanford Wong,Anthony Curtis,Arnold Snider, I could go on but you get the point. Yes I know some dice guy is going to say things like Bob D is a VP guy ,Wong only said it was to hard, Anthony C is doing other things, not everyone has the talent. LOTS of excuses will be made. I call BS. on any "excuse", when it comes to gambling if there in an edge to be had ESPECIALLY on craps, they would not be so easily deterred especially concerning the fact that I have heard numbers of 1.4%. Ill say it again, Anybody that even had a fraction of that edge would be aggressively sought out from many extremely smart rich AP's the DI would be offered any deal they wanted.
I keep hearing stories of so called DI letting newbs/big bettors come and watch them shoot at no charge (WOW how nice). The DI will even let the newbs/big bettors bet WITH him. Now lets say they go play craps and Everyone wins big say 3k so the newbs/big bettors Tips the DI OF COURSE lets say $300 because the newb/big bettor is so happy and wants to go again. That's +EV for the DI & -EV for the newbs/big bettor but who cares he just won 3k. Heck he even pays for dinner. Next night they lose what they won the first night. Of course the DI Blames something other then DI it's self. This seems like a AP one could make a $h!t load of money on if they had a big name.
Quote: AlanMendelsonWelcome hardten... you came to the right place for a lot of discussion about DI. You came to the wrong place to find widespread DI advocacy.
All of this talk about seven-to-rolls-ratios and so forth means nothing unless you are compiling these numbers in casino conditions where 7s on the come out are "good" and everywhere else are "bad."
A true dice influencer should be improving the number of 7s on the come outs, and decreasing the number of 7s on everything but the come out.
that you can keep rolling the dice on your practice rigs and home tables is meaningless unless the 7s are put into context of what they would mean in an actual game situation.
Alan,
This is something that I don't understand, so perhaps you can help explain it to me:
Let's say that I don't believe in Dice Influencing, because I don't, I have mentioned that I set the dice, but that's just because I think it's fun to do...and there may be a little bit of Pascal's Wager mixed in there!
However, if one is a serious Dice Influencer, why would that person not shoot from the Don'ts and try for more Sevens after the CO? Your first roll would consist of trying to roll something that's not a Seven or Yo' and then all other rolls, the goal is to roll El Diablo. It makes sense to me because, after a point is established, a random shooter on the Don't Pass has an advantage already in that El Diablo is more likely than the point number!
So, I guess that's my question, if a shooter can toss out a completely random CO, and only has to focus ON rolling a specific number thereafter, and would have a huge advantage if able to do so...along with the built-in advantage...why would the shooter just not do that?
Think about it, playing the Right Way, if you are a DI, you have to try to be good at rolling six numbers after the CO...play the Dark Side, and you only have to become adept at hitting one number. The Dark Side also has a slightly lower HE, and if someone is going to become a professional Craps player, they need every one-one-hundredth of a percentage they can get.
I've watched a lot of Ahighs videos on his youtube channel. It's all pretty good stuff.
I personally like the hardways set because it allows for some variable of randomness without a 7 coming up. I appreciate the criticism and advice. Once I get to 5k rolls, I'll report back with my results. I know it doesn't mean much until it wins money in casino, but to say it means nothing is bit of a stretch.
Quote: 7crapsExcellent. About a 1 in 12 shot.
Or from 1 million trained Gorillas that roll the dice for bananas,
about 84,606 of them would do exactly what you did or even better.
That would be about a 1 in 154 shot for a random roller or any Gorilla
FrankS reccommends using Smart Craps software. It is shareware and free to try out.
Only place where it really counts for real $$$ is in a real casino
Problem from solicited advice from other DIs is everyone will give you different advice.
AlanM says he can tell from just one throw if you may "have the skill" by how slow, soft your dice roll is
Ahigh laughs at that belief, watch his videos and make your own conclusion.
Others say your skill will come and go, even during the same session.
(nothing like variance, blame it on having a bad day)
get in and get out fast others will say.
IMO, Keep your skills a secret and have your team beat up the casinos.
(Even if you are the only one in your team)
But do not tell anyone.
That will just ruin it all for the rest of the DIs out there.
Do not pay anyone to learn more or to assist you in getting better.
There are many good DIs that do not charge any $$$ to teach DI skills and lessons,
unlike FrankS who is in it for the $$$ only IMHO.
Good Luck
ps: watch out for biased dice made in Mexico and China
I'm interested to see the math behind this. I'd like to be able to put a formula to calculate this in my excel spreadsheet where I record my throws.
Also, I have a comeout roll set that uses the following function to evaluate the best set:
for( $i=2; $i<=12; $i++ )
{
$ratio[$i] = $count[$i]/$count[7] if( $count[7] > 0 );
}
$comescore = ( ( $count[7] + $count[11] ) -
( ( $count[4] + $count[10] ) / 3 ) -
( ( $count[5] + $count[9] ) / 5 ) -
( ( $count[6] + $count[8] ) / 11 ) -
( ( $count[2] + $count[3] + $count[12] ) ) ) / ( $#roll + 1 );
$dcscore = ( ( ( $count[4] + $count[10] ) / 3 ) +
( ( $count[5] + $count[9] ) / 5 ) +
( ( $count[6] + $count[8] ) / 11 ) +
( ( $count[2] + $count[3] ) ) +
- ( $count[7] + $count[11] ) ) / ( $#roll + 1 );
$ratio[0] = $comescore;
$ratio[1] = $dcscore;
This code evaluates the various outcomes with weights according to the edge gained or lost from box numbers in addition to the natural losses and wins.
I come up with best sets for pairs of goals (EG: a DC bet in combination with a place bet on the 8). For every combination, I express the theoretical edge to come up with the best theoretical bets and sets.
It would be a simple exercise to maximize the inverse of these ratios for the lay and lay odds bets. But it's the ratio of the box to seven not just the RSR ratio that you really want to look at assuming you want to take advantage of more than just the RSR.
To the singular post who proclaimed himself to be a realist (implying possibly that I am not), it must be nice living your life; but as a realist, you must appreciate you are no craps expert either. Just being willing to take a sucker's money is the most realistic point you've made to me with your offers for bets.
Quote: AxelWolfI swear someone sends in craps shills just to keep the craps conversation going. I feel like someone is going for the long con. Dose anyone monitor this type of thing. Things like seeing if the same VPN IP's keep showing up?
Paranoid much?
If you want a controlled shot and you want to try to make money from it, it can be fun to try to do that.
But posting on here about it is not.
Think of this as a bubble universe with people who only talk about AP on games that can be easily mathematically proven to be possible.
They get irritated with truly difficult problems and would rather just conclude it can't be done than to do really hard work.
Quote: AhighYeah, you got the rundown of characters already in the response to your post. If there are conclusions to be made, I think everyone has already reached their conclusion and rehashed it.
If you want a controlled shot and you want to try to make money from it, it can be fun to try to do that.
But posting on here about it is not.
Think of this as a bubble universe with people who only talk about AP on games that can be easily mathematically proven to be possible.
They get irritated with truly difficult problems and would rather just conclude it can't be done than to do really hard work.
I understand your train of thought here, but there are other threads. No? I just think it's funny that someone thinks that I'm part of some sort of "long con." Spamming one thread with new comments to "keep it going."
