7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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March 7th, 2013 at 7:49:06 PM permalink
Quote: skrbornevrymin

If the dice are routinely biased toward 6-1 and 5-2, why aren't all you guys playing the dark side with heavy odds and cleaning the casinos out? Seems like it would be a real advantage play.

You get killed trying to establish points with too may 7s.
This has already been proven with a few simulations.

Even betting the 6,1 hop, you would get killed because the casino knows
you know they are using biased dice, so they will just change them dice out
to a set of different biased dice so you do not know what the casino knows until you find out how the new dice are biased, or not.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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March 7th, 2013 at 7:53:06 PM permalink
Quote: skrbornevrymin

If the dice are routinely biased toward 6-1 and 5-2, why aren't all you guys playing the dark side with heavy odds and cleaning the casinos out? Seems like it would be a real advantage play.



This question comes up pretty often. There is a theoretical bias where the extra advantage to the casino only provides additional exposure on the free lay odds bets. That exposure is still hidden behind volatility in the short term. In other words, just having an edge doesn't mean you automatically win easily. You have to stick with it enough events for the edge to matter. And when volatility is between you and that edge, you have to play as long to be sure to win as you would normally play long enough to be sure to lose (when the house has the edge instead).

Cleaning the casinos out would require a lot of stamina. This isn't about a gigantic wide open hole for anyone to exploit.

This is the long term edge being complemented on the passline by an extra 20% to 150%, while the edge on the don't pass is reduced by 5% to 50%, and when things are really out of wack, a player edge forms in the field.

The field represents the bigger exposure to the casino because the volatility is not as high as the lay odds bet. In addition, the field bets goes faster making the grind much easier when the player has an advantage.

I had all these same questions before I modelled the theoretical dice in my simulator to see that such dice could in fact exist. But for those theoretical dice, the casino is counting on much more money being placed on the pass line with odds than in the field. If the dice are really far out of whack (IE: if you try to triple the long term gains for the casino on the passline) the field will dump hard.

As far as I am concerned, this is all strictly theory. But the math does hold out at faceweights of (9,8,8,8,8,9) for faces 1 though 6. You should read up on the other threads and I provide some graphs showing what the low volatility bets that carry an edge do with those face weights over 100,000 samples.
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
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March 7th, 2013 at 7:53:42 PM permalink
Yeah, gotta get the right biased dice in, that's for sure. ROFLMAO !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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March 7th, 2013 at 8:14:20 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

I had all these same questions before I modeled the theoretical dice in my simulator to see that such dice could in fact exist.
But for those theoretical dice, the casino is counting on much more money being placed on the pass line with odds than in the field.
If the dice are really far out of whack (IE: if you try to triple the long term gains for the casino on the passline) the field will dump hard.

As far as I am concerned, this is all strictly theory.
But the math does hold out at faceweights of (9,8,8,8,8,9) for faces 1 though 6.
You should read up on the other threads and I provide some graphs showing what the low volatility bets that carry an edge do with those face weights over 100,000 samples.

All good stuff.
At the 9,8,8,8,8,9 (18% vs 16%)
The don't pass edge drops from -1.4% to -.38%
The don't odds enjoy a 1.04% edge, but you got to set a point first. Too many 7s can kill that edge.
The Field: .76%
2 and 12: .44%
6,1 Hop: 3.68% but that has a ~3.9 standard deviation so you need many bets to make sure you can show a profit from betting this bet.

added: Better to find biased dice like 8,7,7,7,7,8 (only.182% more than 9,8,8,8,8,9)
The don't pass edge drops from -1.4% to -.23%
The don't odds enjoy a 1.2% edge, but you still got to set a point first. Too many 7s can still kill that edge in a short session.
The Field: 1.24%
2 and 12: 2.48%
6,1 Hop: 5.78%

And the casino knows, again, what you know about their dice, so they change the dice to have different bias.

That is why we NEED dice standards in Nevada so they can be followed to make Craps a more fair game.
or just start slamming those dice to the wall and get more random rolls that way.
You still have a choice
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
SanchoPanza
SanchoPanza
Joined: May 10, 2010
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March 7th, 2013 at 8:14:41 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

No, he's trying to win the bonus award. Don't you know about the bonus award?
http://www.state.nj.us/casinos/actreg/reg/docs_chapter47/c47s01.pdf
... Yes, I'm kidding about that last part. But imagine what the dice pit would be like if that were an actual rule...


Just for future referencing: "Chapter 47, Rules of the Games, was repealed by R.2012 d.061, effective March 19, 2012. See: 43 N.J.R. 2842(a), 44 N.J.R. 780(a)."
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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March 7th, 2013 at 8:32:35 PM permalink
I'm looking forward to someone else doing face counts and hitting the field.

Winning on a grind in the field is just simply hilarious. You're not supposed to be able to do that. If the casino sees people start to do this, maybe that will get their attention.

Santa Ana star has a free field bet. If they happen to get bad dice, grinding that field will bring twice as much money (as much as $0.25 per roll on $5 with wacky dice).

The irony is that you have to keep same-betting that field on EVERY roll, just what you're normally NOT supposed to do.

Enough stories start circulating about field grinders on the weekend, I imagine casino employees will be up here reading and commenting on these threads and asking how to make sure their dice are fair all of a sudden.

To me the more likely scenario if bad dice are out there is just that casino employees are the victims of being penny wise and pound foolish trying to save money by using less expensive dice.

Also, I haven't modelled the all-tall-small with these theoretically biased dice, but I assume that bet might also have some issues with the hi-lo being easier to hit.
Keyser
Keyser
Joined: Apr 16, 2010
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March 7th, 2013 at 8:35:40 PM permalink
You're not going to get enough of an edge to beat the house edge on the field bets. The best edge will likely come from laying odds.
SanchoPanza
SanchoPanza
Joined: May 10, 2010
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March 7th, 2013 at 8:36:46 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

The don't odds enjoy a 1.04% edge, but you got to set a point first. Too many 7s can kill that edge.


Not anything a decent lay bet couldn't hedge quite well.
Harley
Harley
Joined: May 13, 2012
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March 7th, 2013 at 8:42:12 PM permalink
7craps and AHigh --- Excellent points and posts !!!
.... that is simply my opinion .... Ciao, Harley ... Link = http://crapsadvantageplayers.blogspot.com/
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
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March 7th, 2013 at 8:43:38 PM permalink
Now I feel left out. Yet my post was the only one that made any sense.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

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