Comparing betting strategies

So I've been trying calculate average losses on different strategies, but have a calculation that doesn't make sense. One strategy is placing $22 inside and taking down any bet that hits, then starting over after the seven out. So if I roll a 5, then seven, I calculate there's a 5% of that, losing $10, with an average loss of $.50. But if I roll a 6, I calculate 6.5% chance, losing just $9, but that's an average of about $.56. How can the average loss be more with a single 6 than with a single 5? Did I miscalculate or just not seeing how it makes sense?

It's easiest to calculate these type of things by looking at the edge per roll.

$22 inside is $12 6/8 plus a $10 5/9.

6/8 carries a .4644% edge per roll 0.004644 * 12 = 0.05 per roll cost to have the 6/8 place bets working
5/9 carries a 1.111% edge per roll 0.011111 * 10 = 0.11 per roll cost to have the 5/9 place bets working

Total cost is $0.16 per roll to use these bets on average.

Percentage cost is 11/16 = 68.75% on the 5/16 and 31.25% on the 6/8.

Just make it simple and look at edge per roll and consider all bets are bets per roll.

Everything else is unnecessarily complicated.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/2/

IE: consider that you have one bet and you bet it EACH roll and it's composed of multiple "legs" that define the singular bet! You either win $7, lose $22, or push and after 137 rolls expect to have lost the $22 and anything less (including the unlikely win on a grind) should be considered good fortune.

Don't forget that your average cost per roll is reduced by a significant number of pushes! Otherwise, this is easy to understand this way.

The combined edge per roll is $0.16 / 22 = 0.7272, or about twice as expensive per dollar bet as the pass line or don't pass line or buying the four or ten for $25 or more with commission on the win.

(My translation: 5 and 9 suck).

JMHO!



Look at the winning legs of the 6/8 strategies and then compare how 5/9 did on those same legs. See how the 5/9 suck? This is random generated data FWIW.

Quote: Ahigh

It's easiest to calculate these type of things by looking at the edge per roll.

$22 inside is $12 6/8 plus a $10 5/9.

It is early for math
really?
5,6,6,5 = 22

OP. do you calcs per bet resolved since you leave them up until they win or lose and compare your number of bets per session to the EV per roll for the number of bets in action for your session.

A simulation can easily verify your results

Good Luck

Quote: 7craps

It is early for math
really?
5,6,6,5 = 22

Did that seriously confuse you, bro? You're still stuck on you can't make a composite bet from multiple other bets, huh?

Let's hear back from the OP to see if he understood what you said and failed to understand me.

<waiting.>

Quote: ewjones080

So I've been trying calculate average losses on different strategies, but have a calculation that doesn't make sense.
One strategy is placing $22 inside and taking down any bet that hits,
then starting over after the seven out.
So if I roll a 5, then seven, I calculate there's a 5% of that, losing $10, with an average loss of $.50.

So every bet will be resolved?
You easily can miss lots of repeating numbers on a good roll.
Do your calcs for bets resolved first.

Would not the EV for the Place5 be (For a $5 wager)
EV = (4/10)*$7 + (6/10)*-$5 = -$0.20
Edge = -$.2/$5 = -.04

Quote: ewjones080

But if I roll a 6, I calculate 6.5% chance, losing just $9, but that's an average of about $.56. How can the average loss be more with a single 6 than with a single 5? Did I miscalculate or just not seeing how it makes sense?

A $6 Place6 I gets
EV = (5/11)*$7 + (6/11)*-$6 = -$0.09
Edge = -$.09/$6

Keep going and add them up.
Looks like EV is $-.5818 per shooter
Edge = -.5818/$22 *100 = ~2.64%
(hey, it is what I got on my quick sim)

Figure out how many bets resolve per your session and you gots your answer for your session EV.
(the number of shooters you will bet on. Say 12 per 100 rolls as and average)

Now compare those calculations to the per roll calculations and see if they match.
They must.

Good Luck

So, it is not too difficult to figure the best betting scheme here: pass-odds and 6 and 8 place betting. With a decent pressing scheme to take advantage of the good hands, and a 10 shooter session bankroll, we have a good chance most sessions.

Quote: dwm

So, it is not too difficult to figure the best betting scheme here: pass-odds and 6 and 8 place betting. With a decent pressing scheme to take advantage of the good hands, and a 10 shooter session bankroll, we have a good chance most sessions.

And if you can afford it, don't forget buying the four and ten for $25. Hitting a $25 buy on the four working the comeout is a really nice way to start a session that makes losing $1.67 on a $5 passline bet something less worrysome. If you don't hit the four, you can always move that $25 on the six and eight if you roll a five or a nine and want odds on that. This is lower edge hedge than a crap-check for bad scenarios for outcomes on the comeout roll, especially if you have $75 on the pass line. Just stay away until you get to at least $20 sized bets.

It also makes up for the lack of any appreciable way to make a larger sum of money on the comeout roll if you only have a minimum bet for that roll (low volatility of the passline with low bet amounts is boring action).

In Craps I would go 5-Pass, 6-Six, 6-Eight. As for odds on the Pass line 2x. Thats $27 of risk.

After reading my original post it doesn't even make sense to me. Granted I was seeing triple as I was writing I was so tired.

Ahigh, I don't really like looking at house edge on a per roll basis, since I don't consider non decisions pushes. I might if I wanted to calculate hourly loss instead of loss per shooter. After considering the problem and working through some calculations I came up with the same thing as 7craps--avg loss of 0.58 per shooting when taking down a winning bet. If I leave up action and don't press I calculated an avg loss of 1.177 per shooter, which isn't quite right since I only used numbers up to eight hits.

If pressing one unit each time: avg loss 2.196 per shooter. Again a little less when considering hitting beyond eight hits.

My short answer is, though, don't bet the 5 and 9!!! Jesus mother of God!!!

Why not just do an IRON CROSS if you're going to bet the 5 and 9 and GO ALL THE WAY. You still have pushes on the 2, 3, 4, 10, 11, and 12!

The short answer why not is the same as why you shouldn't bet the 5 and the 9, but if you are betting those in spite of the more certainty of losing, why NOT bet the IRON CROSS?

I don't judge anyone who plays knowing they are going to lose, but I'm with the Wizard when it comes to edges on place bets. Mind your edges if you have nothing else to focus on...

An interesting new calculation... Starting at 5 on the five and doubling after each hit, I get an avg loss of 1.44 per shooter. (Actually less when considering more than eight hits.)

When starting at 6 on the six and doubling I get an average loss of 2.44. This doesn't make much sense to me, but that's what my calculations say ..

Do you think you would have come to this confusing result analyzing things per roll?

It's easier to compare apples to apples.

Ahigh


I don't judge anyone who plays knowing they are going to lose, but I'm with the Wizard when it comes to edges on place bets. Mind your edges if you have nothing else to focus on...

so it is ok not to judge a person that is going to lose because any betting program you set out , will in the end lose.... and you judge me, a person
that has put in years learning how to win.... and a person that does win.....

Makes no sense you dont want to learn how to win, so you have a program showing people how to lose less.

I have told you a couple of time, why not learn how to win, so your show can mean something


dicesitter

Quote: dicesitter

Ahigh

I don't judge anyone who plays knowing they are going to lose, but I'm with the Wizard when it comes to edges on place bets. Mind your edges if you have nothing else to focus on...

so it is ok not to judge a person that is going to lose because any betting program you set out , will in the end lose.... and you judge me, a person
that has put in years learning how to win.... and a person that does win.....

Makes no sense you dont want to learn how to win, so you have a program showing people how to lose less.

I have told you a couple of time, why not learn how to win, so your show can mean something

dicesitter

You're what makes no sense. Here's what I'm saying: whatever throw you have that gets you paid on the 5 or the 9 would pay you more if you changed your set and got paid on the 4 and 10 for a quarter or more or on the 6 and 8 for smaller units.

The edge is twice as high per roll, and all I am saying is that choosing a hurdle that is lower can double or triple your long term edge depending on how big it is.

If you're like some other people who believe they have such a huge edge they can clear a 1.11% edge per roll with a 10% edge of their own, more power to ya!

Ahigh



your still them how to lose, just not as much...........

for the record..... there are ways to minimize your loses... betting only on the 6 & 8 is one......... using the 5 count is
certainly the best.... it cuts down the amount you wager over-all by 57%......

but all of these are still designed to lose less not win ...more.

I dont mean to pick on you,,, i dont, but you have the set up,..,.. you have your show..... imagine what that could
do if you just learned to throw the dice well enough to get some axis control and increase the 6 & 8....

Just think what a show that would be.


dicesitter

Dear GTC troll;
74 posts on how good you are. You should go to Vegas, get on the show, and really teach em up!

HEY I DONT HAVE A SHOW, I DONT WANT A SHOW, I DONT WANT ANY ONE TO KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT ME AND.... YOU DONT


MY SHOW LIKE MOST GOOD DICESETTERS IS THE SATISFACTION WE GET FROM BEATING THE TABLE.

i HAVE SEEN THE TAPES OF MOST OF THE GUYS THAT SAID THEY WERE GOOD, THE GTC GUYS, DICE COACH AND OTHERS... MOST
OF THAT HAPPENED 10-15 YEARS AGO.... YOU DONT SEE THAT ANYMORE BECAUSE ALL THEY GET IS CRAP AT THE TABLE
FROM THE PIT BOSS AND PEOPLE LIKE YOU..... I USED TO THINK THAT WOULD BE GREAT TO GET GOOD ENOUGH TO BE ON
THOSE TAPES......SORRY... YOU WILL NEVER SEE ME...EVER

SOME DAY IN VEGAS OR AC YOU WILL SEE THIS OLD FART SETTING THE DICE , AND I HOPE I HAVE LOTS OF CHIPS ON THE RACK,
AND I HOPE NO ONES NOTICES.


DICESITTER

Quote: dicesitter

HEY I DONT HAVE A SHOW, I DONT WANT A SHOW, I DONT WANT ANY ONE TO KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT ME AND.... YOU DONT


MY SHOW LIKE MOST GOOD DICESETTERS IS THE SATISFACTION WE GET FROM BEATING THE TABLE.

i HAVE SEEN THE TAPES OF MOST OF THE GUYS THAT SAID THEY WERE GOOD, THE GTC GUYS, DICE COACH AND OTHERS... MOST
OF THAT HAPPENED 10-15 YEARS AGO.... YOU DONT SEE THAT ANYMORE BECAUSE ALL THEY GET IS CRAP AT THE TABLE
FROM THE PIT BOSS AND PEOPLE LIKE YOU..... I USED TO THINK THAT WOULD BE GREAT TO GET GOOD ENOUGH TO BE ON
THOSE TAPES......SORRY... YOU WILL NEVER SEE ME...EVER

SOME DAY IN VEGAS OR AC YOU WILL SEE THIS OLD FART SETTING THE DICE , AND I HOPE I HAVE LOTS OF CHIPS ON THE RACK,
AND I HOPE NO ONES NOTICES.


DICESITTER

Interesting response.

@Dicesitter,

Ouch my ears! My ears! Please stop yelling! :)

Hedging bets never helps. As far as "five counts" go, since when are dice self aware of the previous throws? To me this sounds like JP nonsense.

Are you saying you do not chart the table before playing ?

Quote: Keyser

@Dicesitter,

Ouch my ears! My ears! Please stop yelling! :)

Hedging bets never helps. As far as "five counts" go, since when are dice self aware of the previous throws? To me this sounds like JP nonsense.

Frank Scoblete is the one who talks about how to use the "5 counts".

WRT 5-counts, the intended purpose is to eliminate poor performing shooters.

The 5-count neglects the fact that it's also possible that the shooter loses stamina for favorable results.

I do not subscribe to the 5-count, but I also generally accept that any time I bet on any shooter, I am straight up gambling.

Even the best shooters I won't bet on them often enough to matter about the long term effects and I know nothing about how they shoot, and it's totally a gamble.