Koganinja
Koganinja
Joined: Mar 15, 2013
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March 15th, 2013 at 6:29:30 AM permalink
Dear Ahigh,

This is Koganinja, just wanted to step out of the shadows for a minute and give you a shout-out. Itís awesome to see the great work you and HarleyHorn have been doing, itís great to see two super smart guys make new discoveries with the bad dice that are out here in Vegas.

I for one NEVER thought I would ever see you come to the conclusion that unbalanced dice are a real thing. As for what I have read on this forum I can see you are fighting an uphill battle trying to get the many viewers of this site to believe what Harley, Myself and now you know to be a real ongoing thing, that yes there are bad dice being used.

Over the last year and so months I have had every bit of B.S. thrown at me from Axis Crap, GTC, Mad Pro., Dice Coach Camp, Wizard, you, and every other dice camp on the plant. So yes, I know your probably really frustrated trying to get everyone to see the truth on this site. However, my advice if you want to take it, is donít try so hard getting people to believe it, when it happens it will happen. Itís for this reason I personally donít come to these types of forums, I donít want to be in useless arguments with people and a part of a clique as many of this sites tend to be itís just not my flow. I would rather be out shooting dice and making money. I just tend to be a straight to the point kind of guy.

But anyway, at this point in my dice control journey I have presented the information to the public and it will be up to them to do with it what they want with it. However, some will never see it for what it is. Also, I want to say here publicly you are the only one who ever tried to disprove my findings with a video response to my first two videos, so my hats off to you on that! Out of all the gurus out there you were the only one who tried! Anyway, just wanted to say good work on everything you have discovered to this point and Iím sure you and HarleyHorn will come up with some fresh new things we can all benefit from.
Again I just wanted to say hey and keep up all the fine work!

Thanx,
Koganinja
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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March 15th, 2013 at 9:18:47 AM permalink
Just to go on record, I'm not even claiming this is truth. I'm just not so closed minded that I can ignore when I get results that warrant further investigation.

To me, the heavy six-one dice are just theory even still. But each time I record a session where the six face and the one face are the heaviest, the evidence is absolutely there.

There is not enough evidence for me to prove anything, and I don't expect anyone to believe in the theory. Especially on this website.

But people that come to a knee-jerk reaction like I did 18 months ago don't realize how much work I have done on this subject to this point.

Just the fact that I am continuing to be open to the possibility is very difficult for me. I would much rather close the case.

This story has more drama than the OJ trial.

To me the funniest part of this story is that the casinos aren't asking me about my balance. I mean they don't care. There's no problem for them.

It's not that often that somebody has a run in the field. Much less often than someone getting killed with max odds.

What would they be worried about if this were true? Someone laying max odds on the lay bets? In theory, there is exposure there when you're getting more sixes than ones from hitting more of the higher box numbers for example. But if the sixes and ones cancel each other out, there's no fear on that side either. Plus you need a big bankroll to overcome the edge on the don't and DC .. meaning you need a 10x table or better to exploit.

It's still much easier to get lucky.

These long-term effects on the hold don't matter to individuals in general. Even locals with consistent betting strategies that always bet the same way the only way I can imagine it affecting them is that they might survive a little longer making horn bets than they should.

It's a very interesting theory and story resulting from the theory.

I only wish a million throws of a stick of dice without biasing the dice in the process were easier to do as a test. The labor is an annoying part of this research.
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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March 15th, 2013 at 10:41:25 AM permalink
The accusation that a die could be a tad off balance is not all that unbelievable. The contention that the Casino knows exactly which die (dice) are off balance and uses this to their advantage by switching them back and forth based on how poeple are playing/winning is the part that makes those that are claiming it seem delusional.

The switching of the die to create an advantage over players is the part I say does not happen in an U.S. Casino.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Harley
Harley
Joined: May 13, 2012
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March 15th, 2013 at 10:47:23 AM permalink
Quote: Leonardo Da Vinci

There are 3 classes of people:
- Those who see;
- Those who see when they are shown;
- Those who do not see;

.... that is simply my opinion .... Ciao, Harley ... Link = http://crapsadvantageplayers.blogspot.com/
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
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March 15th, 2013 at 10:55:29 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13


The switching of the die to create an advantage over players is the part I say does not happen in an U.S. Casino.

ZCore13



If it did, I would think we would hear more "whistleblower" stories than we actually do.
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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March 15th, 2013 at 11:03:48 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

The accusation that a die could be a tad off balance is not all that unbelievable. The contention that the Casino knows exactly which die (dice) are off balance and uses this to their advantage by switching them back and forth based on how poeple are playing/winning is the part that makes those that are claiming it seem delusional.

The switching of the die to create an advantage over players is the part I say does not happen in an U.S. Casino.

ZCore13



I made this point to Harley, but let me make it more public:

Casinos chart their income.
Players generally don't.

Casino's track which dice are on the table including the serial number and other detailed information.
Players generally don't.

Casinos suspect dice for being responsible for unusual things happening at the table when they (the casino) are losing at that table.
Players generally don't.

If you're a player, you generally don't. Welcome to the club of players!

Casinos ABSOLUTELY CHANGE THE DICE BASED ON WHAT IS HAPPENING AT THE TABLE.

If you don't believe this, you are simply wrong. There is nothing more or less to be said about this argument. Even if you find a casino that doesn't do this, it is ABSOLUTELY TRUE THAT CASINOS WILL CHANGE THE DICE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MONEY IS BEING WON ON A TABLE.

Which of the above claims do you specifically disagree with? An advantage is created when the dice are made to be more fair relative to dice that are less fair that a player is obtaining the advantage. Therefore, this qualifies as "switching of the die to create an advantage over players." The advantage is that the casino can change the dice, and the player has to use whatever stick of dice is available at the time.

This is just to get started even before we talk about theoretically idealized dice for specific and/or expected betting patterns based on day of the week and time of the day.

Do you still believe that casinos won't at least try to remove dice that are favoring a player's bets to get a fresh brand new stick of dice that should be more fair? Do you say that this is happening but it's not an advantage "over players?"

If you agree with all I have said above, maybe you can refine your argument for what you feel is not happening to not include that they are knowingly putting what could loosely be described as "percentage dice" on the table for their own benefit.

I think the possibility that they are knowingly putting percentage dice out on the table is a very real possibility at this point after doing more data collections recently. I have more data that I have not yet published.

I also encourage others to do their own records to find out for themselves.

I thought this was all 100% BS until I started looking at the data and seeing the patterns appearing very frequently on the six face and the ace face.

It's hard work and lots of data collection requiring lots of time during busy and/or peak hours at a casino craps table, but anybody can do this!
aparadim
aparadim
Joined: Mar 3, 2013
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March 15th, 2013 at 12:33:59 PM permalink
Quote:

Harley
That was a fun read down memory lane and how we have evolved with new data, information and brainstorming ideas from the Wizards' site and members !!!

... big kudos and credits to Wizards' members as well as GoodShooter.com for allowing an open discussion of the Biased dice issue ...... SuperRick and I have been banned from Heavy's axispowercraps.com message board and DiceInstitute.com for trying to discuss the subject of Biased dice


".. we have evolved with new data" is another stretch of opinion and speculation.

AHigh to his credit applied a scientific method approach to observe Up Face Numbers and test(s) for goodness-of-fit with the chi-test confidence method. The present limited number of samples have yet to come close to a 95 percent confidence that chance is not involved in the observed Up Face Numbers distributions

AHigh's WHAT-IF computer analysis of an observed UP FACE distribution to determine edge of bets may be interesting, but it does not substantiate Harley's "evolution of data" let alone support Harley's opinions / speculations that fabricated dice with center of gravity offsets ( Biased Dice) are at the core of the Face Numbers distribution or craps outcomes observations.

Harley and his Research Team have yet to present one testable scientific method hypothesis to support Biased dice notions. They don't address the existence of "Kinetics (physics), the study of motion and its causes"; "Rigid body kinetics, the study of the motion of rigid bodies"; as well as variance in data observations as factors in craps outcomes or in support of the speculations that fabricated dice with center of gravity offsets ( Biased Dice) give Casinos their basic advantages in the negative expectation game of Craps. They ignore Scarne's "Dice that are everything they should be are known as square dice, perfects or levels, The most obvious method of making a "false set" is to weight them so that one or more sides are heavier than the others. ...." (see REF A: pg 213). They are also quiet on Scarne's WATER and SCRATCH TEST (s) while not mentioning that a PIVOT TEST should be run on all four possible spin axes per Scarne.

The threads of "BAD DICE: the saga CONTINUES" and "Casinos would never cheat .... '" may well go on based on the foundations of opinions, speculations and on casual observations of craps outcomes rather than rigorous or scientific analysis or the scientific method as a minimum.

Ahigh deserves acknowledgements and credits for his efforts to bring knowledge to this topic.

REFA: SCARNE on dice by John Scarne [ published 1974 by STACKPOLE BOOKS revised and updated edition ISBN 0811715167 ]
Chapters 12 and 13 (pp 213 thru 253) for as he wrote on pg 252, "KNOWLEDGE IS PROTECTION". Also, look at details of Scarne' s "PIVOT TEST" on pg 220, "THE WATER TEST" on pg 220, "SCRATCH TEST" on pg 221 and a Loaded Dice Advertisement ( with Filled Transparent Dice) of Fig. 7 on pg 223
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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March 15th, 2013 at 12:57:21 PM permalink
I will admit that some awfully stupid people might indeed threaten a casino's license by attempting to introduce some cheating mechanism such as crooked dice or a wheel with a brake but usually those people are few and seldom rise high enough in a casino's ranks to get to where they can do much good (or bad).

The guy swabbing out the toilets each morning might think he knows how to crank up the oxygen, re-cycle the slot machines and switch in some modified dice but all he ever really has the option of doing is choosing which bathroom he cleans first.

A pair of dice whether carefully milled to be "off" or whether worn from use and now somewhat "off" will not be retained for use in the casino simply because its more dangerous to the casino's bottom line than a perfect set of dice would be.
SanchoPanza
SanchoPanza
Joined: May 10, 2010
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March 15th, 2013 at 1:10:44 PM permalink
Quote: aparadim

AHigh to his credit applied a scientific method approach to observe Up Face Numbers and test(s) for goodness-of-fit with the chi-test confidence method. The present limited number of samples have yet to come close to a 95 percent confidence that chance is not involved in the observed Up Face Numbers distributions


The scientific method also usually requires strict procedures like control groups and the ability to reproduce the results. The lack of such basic tenets along with the results from extremely small samples that fail to stray far from standard deviations are further handicaps.
SanchoPanza
SanchoPanza
Joined: May 10, 2010
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March 15th, 2013 at 1:12:52 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

A pair of dice whether carefully milled to be "off" or whether worn from use and now somewhat "off" will not be retained for use in the casino simply because its more dangerous to the casino's bottom line than a perfect set of dice would be.


As confirmed by the case of the Golden Nugget's using the pre-shuffled deck in baccarat that resulted in their million-dollar-plus loss and ensuing legal hullabaloo.

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