Betting the "Don't"

My apologies if this topic has been covered (I did a cursory glance but didn't see it...new member).

I have pretty much just been playing craps and baccarat when I've gone to the casinos over the last few years. I noticed many people commenting on the best games being VP and BJ. I tend to stay on the strip when I go to Vegas (usually with the wife and she doesn't want to go downtown) and haven't seen single decks in years (tend to see 8 deck shoes or even the machine that shuffle after every hand). With that said, I gave up on BJ realizing it would be virtually impossible to count cards. As for VP, I rarely see any 6/9 machines so don't bother with that either (plus I sometimes have problems remembering when to hold inside/outside straights and flush possibilities)

I tend to like betting the "don't" when I play craps. Clearly I am hoping to avoid a lot of 7 and 11's on the come out roll. With that said, I don't quite understand the notion of taking "max" odds. I tend to play $100 on the come out, and back it up with $120. It seems to me that you actually reduce your advantage with the "odds" wager with the don't (although I realize you still should somewhat take advantage of a 50/50 proposition since there are no casino games that give you those odds).

single deck games from my experience have the dreaded 6:5 BJ and the last time I went to Vegas it seemed the 6 or 8 deck shoes were disappearing as well as they were all using CSMs. You still may get games dealt out of a shoe at higher limits however.

Quote: bodyforlife

My apologies if this topic has been covered (I did a cursory glance but didn't see it...new member).

I have pretty much just been playing craps and baccarat when I've gone to the casinos over the last few years. I noticed many people commenting on the best games being VP and BJ. I tend to stay on the strip when I go to Vegas (usually with the wife and she doesn't want to go downtown) and haven't seen single decks in years (tend to see 8 deck shoes or even the machine that shuffle after every hand). With that said, I gave up on BJ realizing it would be virtually impossible to count cards. As for VP, I rarely see any 6/9 machines so don't bother with that either (plus I sometimes have problems remembering when to hold inside/outside straights and flush possibilities)

I tend to like betting the "don't" when I play craps. Clearly I am hoping to avoid a lot of 7 and 11's on the come out roll. With that said, I don't quite understand the notion of taking "max" odds. I tend to play $100 on the come out, and back it up with $120. It seems to me that you actually reduce your advantage with the "odds" wager with the don't (although I realize you still should somewhat take advantage of a 50/50 proposition since there are no casino games that give you those odds).

Welcome.

Good for you that you have gravitated to the darkside. The Odds bet, whether it be on the Pass or Don't Pass, is the best bet in the casino, as it has no house advantage. You are getting the best deal possible by getting your desired action through the odds, leaving your line bet as small as possible.

On the don't, you are not taking odds, but laying odds, as you have to bet more than you would win. Doing such a play does not change the advantage you have on your DP after the come-out roll. It is, in effect, a separate bet. Using odds to get your action is the best overall play, because your DP bet still has an overall house advantage.

If you play on the strip then most houses are 3x/4x/5x odds. For a don't player, this translates into 6x maximum lay on any point.

Later today, I can provide some charts to show some samples of the ups and downs that result from various amounts of odds being taken. Generally speaking, your results are just opposite the passline working-the-comeout strategy. Most of the time you win on the don't side of things. But a "hot shooter" or a "lucky shooter" is your enemy.

The nicest thing about betting the don't for a new player is if you run out of chips on your rail, you are more likely to be alright compared to a pass line better.

They often have little chance of staying in the game once they get their chips moved out to the felt.

So the don't strategy has built-in money management. With all that advantage, your chips on the felt are more like in a bank than on some long shot wager. They are just earning interest from their advantage sitting up there after they travel. And most of the time they come back.

I have to say..I've been playing the DP a lot more lately...just last night, within 20 minutes (1 stickman) I won $100 and I was simply betting $5 with single-lay ($10/$9/$6)...
From playing as much craps as I play...that "lucky shooter" just doesn't come along enough...the only painful part is come-out 7/11...but on a streak of PSO's with no come-out naturals, you can really clean up QUICK...

Quote: bodyforlife

, I don't quite understand the notion of taking "max" odds.

Nick the Greek, a don't player, is reported to have said, when reflecting in his dotage upon his gambling career, that "If I could do it all over again, I wouldn't have laid the odds," or words to that effect.

That was bad wording on my part, Darth. Yes, I understand the odds wager on the don't. I guess my point was you are making a "true odds" wager in a situation where you already had an advantage on your DP wager (since you have already gotten past the come out roll), thereby decreasing your advantage. And as stated, there is no game in the casino where you can get a "true odds" (no advantage for the casino) wager, so I do bet some on it. But in looking at the Wizard of Odds site, it makes it appear as though you are actually reducing the casino advantage with a "true odds" wager on the don't, and that doesn't seem correct to me. It would seem like you are reducing your advantage. For example, on a point of "10", the possibility of success on my part is 2 to 1. Yet, I am backing that up with a wager that only gives "true odds", so a lesser possibility of success than my current DP wager.

Quote: bodyforlife

That was bad wording on my part, Darth. Yes, I understand the odds wager on the don't. I guess my point was you are making a "true odds" wager in a situation where you already had an advantage on your DP wager (since you have already gotten past the come out roll), thereby decreasing your advantage. And as stated, there is no game in the casino where you can get a "true odds" (no advantage for the casino) wager, so I do bet some on it. But in looking at the Wizard of Odds site, it makes it appear as though you are actually reducing the casino advantage with a "true odds" wager on the don't, and that doesn't seem correct to me. It would seem like you are reducing your advantage. For example, on a point of "10", the possibility of success on my part is 2 to 1. Yet, I am backing that up with a wager that only gives "true odds", so a lesser possibility of success than my current DP wager.

You are only looking at the situation from the standpoint of after the come-out roll has occurred. At that point, any money on the DP has a player advantage, not a house advantage. One can look in terms of this in %, but it is more clear to view it in terms of absolute $. That absolute amount doesn't change based on whether odds are laid.

If one could lay money on the DP after the come-out, the player would maintain this long term edge over the casino, but such is not the nature of the game. Go ahead and try it and check out the reaction! One must look at the math of the game before the come-out. At that point, there is a negative expectation on the DP of approx 1.3%, because of the push on the 12. Again, eventually laying odds will not change this fact.

My point is that if you crave say $200 of action, you are better to make a $30 DP and $180 worth of odds, thus exposing only $30 to the house advantage. Hope this makes sense.

Quote: bodyforlife

But in looking at the Wizard of Odds site, it makes it appear as though you are actually reducing the casino advantage with a "true odds" wager on the don't, and that doesn't seem correct to me.

Your explanation does make sense, it just doesn't address my question. When you look at the Wizard of Odds site on House edge per bet resolved, it does appear he is saying that the edge is reduced exponentially by the amount you are placing on the "odds" wager. Again, this doesn't make sense to me. You are essentially getting your wager closer to "true odds" when the player already have a built in advantage after the come out roll (since you avoided the 7 and 11). That's all I'm saying.

regarding laying the odds, came across the Ask-the-Wizard page the other day and here it is below. I'd like to think it puts paid to the question, as I have participated in one thread where I couldnt convince member MsNiceGirl . I was guessing she had been told this canard by dealers or other players.

https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/81/

the thread where I couldnt convince MsNiceGirl starts here:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/11853-dark-side-strategies/2/#post211430

Quote: odiousgambit

regarding laying the odds, came across the Ask-the-Wizard page the other day and here it is below. I'd like to think it puts paid to the question, as I have participated in one thread where I couldnt convince member MsNiceGirl . I was guessing she had been told this canard by dealers or other players.

https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/81/

the thread where I couldnt convince MsNiceGirl starts here:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/11853-dark-side-strategies/2/#post211430

Thank you Odious! The Wizard makes the exact point I was talking about. I have no idea what she's talking about when she starts going off on the tangent of placing a second wager, but I do agree with her initial thoughts on the don't and the odds wager.

darthvader gave a very good explanation.

Quote: Beethoven9th

darthvader gave a very good explanation.

The come-out is very tough to get past when you're playing the Don't. There are 8 ways to lose immediately on the come-out, but only 3 ways to win immediately. So (as darthvader said) you're better off making a small Don't bet and saving the rest of your money until after the come-out when you can lay odds.

Again, not the question I was asking Beethoven. I understood what he said and I understand the ratios (and I clearly pointed that out in my comment in my initial post).

Quote: bodyforlife

Again, not the question I was asking Beethoven. I understood what he said and I understand the ratios (and I clearly pointed out that comment in my initial post).

So what exactly is y

Quote: Beethoven9th

So what exactly is your question then? If you understand the grave risks on the come-out, then that should answer any questions about why reducing your DP/DC bet and laying odds is the way to go.

Beethoven, it's already been explained in the answer the Wizard gave and the initial comment made by MsNiceGirl. That's what I was looking for. No need for me to cut and paste it for you since you can read it yourself. I appreciate Odious referencing it.

OK, good

Quote: Beethoven9th

OK, good.

...and good luck at the tables!

Thanks!

Quote: bodyforlife

When you look at the Wizard of Odds site on House edge per bet resolved, it does appear he is saying that the edge is reduced exponentially by the amount you are placing on the "odds" wager.

"House edge" is not really applicable when looking at odds bets. Look at expected value instead.

Strangely enough, if you keep track of every Don't bet you make/made...if you NEVER hit 12 (or 2, here in Reno) then you'd actually have always had an advantage (because the house edge comes in the form of pushing on the 12 or 2)