BAD DICE: the saga CONTINUES

Thank you tupp, you made my point:

Quote: tupp

the shooters were random

as were the conditions

Quote: tupp

these results are not proof

exactly.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Thank you tupp, you made my point:

As I recall, your point involved the question: "How much of a difference is the difference?"

Quote: AlanMendelson

By the way, which came first, the chicken or the egg?

There is no debate. The egg came first. What you define as a chicken was a mutation from a 'pre-chicken', and thus that first 'real chicken' was an egg before it was a chicken.
That's if you believe in evolution. If you believe that all the living creatures were plunked here by God in a 6 day period, then your answer would be the chicken.

Alan you have become the definitive armchair skeptic. If you read my original post you will see that all that I am doing is the due diligence to refute, not to establish, that biased dice exist.

This is a report from what I found using all of the tools at my disposal to report on my findings.

It is not proof of biased dice.

It is evidence of biased dice.

I am not happy about this evidence as I would prefer to go back to my previous way of thinking: biased dice is bullshit and is just some excuse somebody comes up with for losing. In this exact case, I still lost a couple hundred bucks that day. But it was another random finger snapper bold betting the field who got the spoils for this, what was at least a VERY consistent trend if not compromised cubes.

Now onto the subject of how exactly this could occur: I am not sure that it is important HOW it could occur. It is really only important that it did occur and that I had the resources at my disposal to do this work to observe more than just how much I lost making what kinds of bets.

Each and every casino in Las Vegas has typical and atypical betting patterns. If a stick of dice is causing a table to dump, the dice are possibly to blame. If the table is MAKING a lot of money for the casino, the dice could be the reason as well.

I would think that given that it is legal, a smart casino would not only take what might be unfair dice off the table when they are losing, they might also PUT unfair dice ON the table depending on what oversized bets for their normal action are being placed.

I observed MUCH more than what I described in my original post in terms of the details of what I was doing with my bets and what they were doing with bringing in dice. I saw and heard plenty of chatter behind the table to go along with this story, and much of it in the context of seeking out what Harley described to me in the meeting we had the day before this. IE: this was all no accident, this was hard work following up on information that Harley provided me with.

If there is truth to the possibility that the dice outcomes for each face were not all exactly 1/6th, these samples support that claim.

In fact, we should all know that after any set of theoretically unbiased dice are thrown even a single time, the dice become biased on the very next throw. We can all argue about how much and whether it makes any difference, but that is something that I do believe. If you don't believe this, you don't understand that EVERYTHING makes a difference to the outcome, and theoretically unbiased dice do not even exist. It's just a matter of how much bias exists and whether it is within tolerance of being acceptable.

The other thing that you have to realize is that my opinion is biased towards the idea that these biased dice (biased enough to make the casino more money) do NOT exist because I have been of the opinion that casinos would not expose themselves to being exploited. And yet I cannot ignore the evidence collected one day after meeting with Harley and having him give me his profile of what is going on and having it match nearly exactly what his claims were.

It was, in fact, a point that I made that the casinos would not allow exposure on the field due to the effect of heavy 6-1 faces. And here we have it in reality that the evidence suggests that it a possibility worth further investigation.

Where's the proof? I hope you're not referring to the 370 throws earlier in the thread. Try to show at least a couple thousand trials showing individual dice values, not the sum totals of a pair, with a chance of randomness out there quite a bit further.

Quote: Keyser

Where's the proof? I hope you're not referring to the 370 throws earlier in the thread. Try to show at least a couple thousand trials showing individual dice values, not the sum totals of a pair, with a chance of randomness out there quite a bit further.

Keyser,

It is apparent that you have not read the entire thread. As with many other things where I work really hard towards providing evidence, your comment that there is no proof is a common response among many in this forum. The armchair critic. Your comments amount to a simple reflexive scoff hardly worthy of a post and certainly only backed by a fraction of a percentage of the effort I put into this thread.

Here is another reality: I am not trying to prove that biased dice are being used by casinos. I am doing all the hard work to provide evidence and it just so happens that the evidence supports the idea that it could in fact be happening. That, in fact, is different from proof.

Your rhetorical question, "Where's the proof?" I assume intends to diminish the value of the hard work that I did. I spent over ten hours doing what I did do related to this post last Sunday. And your response is, "Try to show at least a couple thousand trials?"

Here is an idea: why don't you do the work and let me tell you to work harder and point out that you have no proof of anything. Now, GO!!

Since you didn't read the whole thread, let me answer your question for the remote chance that it was a valid, rather than a rhetorical, question: there is none.

Here's my question: why don't you do the work?

Quote: tupp

Those characteristics are irrelevant, because all of the shooters were random -- as was mentioned in the original post.

That question is already answered in the OP (and in the very chart that I linked): 130 1s; 125 2s; 108 3s; 125 4s; 119 5s; and 142 6s. That is "how much of a difference is a difference."

For that very large sample size, a perfect distribution would call for 123 1/6 hits for each face.
The 1 face was 7 more and 6 face 19 more.
That is conclusive evidence from the bias sect because they knew before hand - that is the key point-
(and the claim is at a 99% confidence level - the billions of $s should therefore exist in a Craps syndicate)
that that would be the results from roll 50 to roll 600.

Of course, Ahigh did not present to the world a time series of data so we could see that actually happened from the very start,
faces 1 and 6 dominated the roll results right from the get go.
Too bad.

=======================================
How much of a difference is it?? Look and see.
The chi-square test shows the distribution being 40%
That means that the probability fair dice would produce results this skewed or worse results is 40%.
The bottom line is while these results are more skewed than would be expected,
they are not skewed enough to raise any eyebrows in such a small sample.
========================================

But, knowing the dice are biased or not, knowing you have an edge,
if you do not make the bets or bet more on the winning numbers more than average, you are a net loser.
simple
Knowledge is great, but what you do with it can be priceless.

I absolutely failed to capitalize on what I learned. I didn't want to believe it even after collecting all that data, and I went back to betting in a way that would lose more money in theory, and I only went for it on a big odds bet on the four that I hit.

The face weights on the six were consistently ahead for the entire session. At one point the sixes were at 30 while the 3 faces were at 15.

I invite people who are close to the casino to get in contact with Vern, who was dealing at the time. He's a pretty smart young white dude who was following along the entire time with what I was doing and is a witness to what happened, including my $100 odds bet on the 4 that I hit, my $250 pass line bets (table limits), my $60 field bet that hit aces on a random shooter, and my hitting tons of field bets for the guy (including multiple boxcars and aces once) with stacks of green in the field.

As far as doing a better job at what I am doing, you have to realize how many DIFFERENT things I am doing. This was a plan I put into place the previous day based on Harley's comments, and I executed it within a 24-hour period devoting 10 hours of time towards it. This is in addition to the Ahigh show, my full time job, my software, my own personal gambling and shooting, watching my kid play hockey Sunday morning, and so many other things I am doing.

The criticisms that amount to "you didn't do enough work" are not much appreciated. Especially from those doing less work.

Harley has been an arch-rival in terms of biased dice theory of mine for well over a year now. So it's not like I'm trying to cozy up to him. I'm interested in the process and I am trying to not be biased towards the outcome.

See the Ahigh show when I was told I had bad dice on there and how I responded.

You should realize that I am not grinding an axe. It's the work itself and the results, no matter what they are, that is my interest.

As far as my interest in profiting from my activity, see the other thread in response to Wizard saying I had to make money to prove anything. I disagree that I have to make money. I can lose money on purpose if that is what I want to do, and it proves nothing at all.

Quote:

Ahigh
Here's my question: why don't you do the work?

Everybody wants the proof; they wanted Harley to hand over all the bad dice that he collected and all the date so they could exploit what he found over the years of tracking the tables and finding ways around the bad dice. This was even after they banned him from one of the boards that he posted about the bad dice. They didn’t want any of their followers questioning them about what he was saying.

They wrote that he wouldn’t meet with anybody on the matter, which wasn’t true. He had made an offer to do so but was turned down by the great fiction writer protégé. Every time something came up on this subject, the other craps boards did what they do the best; call somebody names that they don’t want anybody listening to.

Alan if you still want proof about the dice do your own work as Ahigh has suggested, Track every table you play on, track every shooter on the table, collect all the data you can, you don’t need a computer to see that there is something wrong. Then develop a betting strategy to match what you are seeing, because the next time you play in the same casino they will have a different brand of dice on the table!

Now for the rest of you guys that say that NV, has rules in place that cover the use of the dice that the casinos use, please post those rules because there are none, NV is still in the “Wild, Wild West” where casinos can do anything they want to when it comes to craps and the dice they use. There are no rules that spell out how the dice should be, nothing on there size, nothing on the balance, nothing on the weight, nothing on being square!

Then there is always this linger question and it’s a good one because of all the pencil pushers that they have working for them. Why do some casinos use two or three different brands of dice, and why do you always see the table that has one brand of dice losing. Then you also might have one table out of 6 have a different brand on it and on that table the players there are having some good rolls on it!

If I owned a casino I would love to have a 5 to 1 losing ration on my tables. The one winning table to suck them in and the 5 others to take their money.

Wouldn’t it be cheaper for them to buy all their dice off one manufacture, instead of two or three different ones, also why do you see certain dice on the tables when it’s the weekend or when there is something big happening in town?
These are all questions that you need to answer for yourself. If you don’t believe what Ahigh told you please keep playing, because we do need losers for the game to continue!

By the way I do love all those guys that have never set foot in one of our casinos telling everybody that they are an expert on this matter!

Now I haven't seen Ahigh's program first hand, but I will take Harley's evaluation of it to heart, that's it's the most powerful program for craps he has ever seen. Ahigh has done more work on trying to prove Harley wrong then anybody else, and didn't stick his head in the sand when he found out what Harley said had merit!

Quote: AlanMendelson

come on, I want some specifics, not just pretty charts of numbers that showed up.

I want to see the evidence -- the proof that the dice are biased. Someone cut up the dice, weigh and measure each section. Give me the proof.

None of this is proof that dice are biased-- weighted, shaved or otherwise.

http://crapsadvantageplayers.blogspot.com/search/label/Melted%20Dice

"It is in no way our job to say why dice are unbalanced,"

"however close observation will show you why too many Dice are Unbalanced."

"The pips (white spots) are made of a different material than the plastic colored cube itself.
Too often this will create heavier weight on the 5/6 side of the die as compared to the opposite side 1/2.
This gives an 11:3 ratio of weighted material that creates the imbalance and bias on a craps table"

Still does not answer AlanM questions.
How much bias?
What is the weight difference between the removed material of the die and the material that replaces it?

And heavier 5,6 faces produce more 6 and 1 face rolls from a set of 5 dice.

Still does not answer AlanM questions, just brings up more questions.

"I want to see the evidence -- the proof that the dice are biased."

Sounds like a very simple request to me Alan

I spent THOUSANDS of dollars to prove that dice are balanced.

I have the caliper at my house to show the details of balance.

But even if the dice are balanced, and the face outcomes are biased towards certain things being more likely, WHO CARES ABOUT THE BALANCE?

I can tell you because I know: NOBODY CARES. There is no demand at all for my balance that work AMAZINGLY WELL!!!

It is the outcomes that matter.

I think that focusing on testing the outcomes of casino dice on real casino tables is the ONLY THING THAT MATTERS.

That is my thinking now.

Anyone who focuses on anything else, is chasing a red herring.

All the casinos care about is their profit.

All the players should care about is what outcomes are more likely in the faces.

Everything else is moot IMO.

Proper test just requires rapid random throwing. $0.02 per throw from the don't pass would be my suggested way to pay to find out how the dice are behaving. 350 throws only costs $7!! Go FIND OUT!

Quote: Harley

but I can predict with almost 99% accuracy what the dice results are going to be after 30 rolls --- and they will continue to be that same Bias for 500 or 600 rolls which is all we care about because they change dice every 8 hours in Vegas (except Caesar's which will keep them for up to 24 hours on a table)

You are front and center stage.

As AlanM says
prove it with your data.

You are a numbers guy and say there are 10,000+ dice rolls collected by the team.
A very nice sample size.

What are the results from the totals of those rolls?
You are front and center stage.

The rolls you say that are not from biased dice and the rolls you say are from biased dice?
Just tell us the numbers and the chi-squared p-values, very simple request,

and we can know with an extremely high degree of certainty that you should blow the lid on biased dice
and prove beyond a reasonable doubt that

"Las Vegas Casinos are systematically using Biased Dice in an effort to cheat their customers and increase profits."

You are still front and center stage.

If you want to test for bias, you probably -don't- want a controlled throw. If I recall the paper by some University types, the more the dice bounces and skips around the more likely the results are random.

Note : random could still be biased, a biased dice just doesn't not have equal chances to land on each side, but can still be random. If I was near a craps table, I'd collect some data. But I'm not, and my casino cancelled dice won't cut it. I might try with a gaming dice this weekend though and see if I collect enough data to show if they are biased (which many people suspect).

I do go back to the automatic dice roller someone built... (http://gamesbyemail.com/News/DiceOMatic)

If he's not seeing bias on 1.5 million dice rolls, per day, I'd wonder why you would with casino dice, which are -supposed- to be better quality.

Quote: thecesspit

I'd wonder why you would with casino dice, which are -supposed- to be better quality.

"Las Vegas Casinos are systematically using Biased Dice in an effort to cheat their customers and increase profits."

case closed

Quote: thecesspit

I might try with a gaming dice this weekend though and see if I collect enough data to show if they are biased (which many people suspect).

But do it at the casinos that are known to use the biased dice on the weekends.

I go to Vegas almost always during the week so I guess I miss most of the bias dice action.

Quote: 7craps

How much bias?

No way to accurately determine "how much," other than rolling dice a bunch of times. Ahigh's experience with 370 rolls is evidence to the possibility of unbalanced dice, although the results are probably much more dramatic than most would have predicted.

Quote: 7craps

What is the weight difference between the removed material of the die and the material that replaces it?

Currently, it seems that only each dice manufacturer knows that for sure. In most dice brands, there might not be any significant difference between the weight/density of the pip material and that of the dice body material.

Of course, a lot depends on the motivations and production tolerances of the manufacturers and materials suppliers. Material density might vary somewhat from batch to batch and from brand to brand. One would hope that manufacturers endeavor to be as accurate as possible.

Quote: 7craps

Still does not answer AlanM questions, just brings up more questions. "I want to see the evidence -- the proof that the dice are biased." Sounds like a very simple request to me Alan

If it is so simple, perhaps you and AlanM would care to do the research and contact dice manufacturers and/or sample different brands of dice and extract pip material and dice body material and weigh them against each other, and then publish the results in an orderly manner on this forum.

Again, please keep in mind that evidence (which has already been presented) is a different thing than proof.

How about betting on a 7 hop thats 6 and 1

should clean up!

Quote: tupp

If it is so simple, perhaps you and AlanM would care to do the research and contact dice manufacturers and/or sample different brands of dice and extract pip material and dice body material and weigh them against each other, and then publish the results in an orderly manner on this forum.

Again, please keep in mind that evidence (which has already been presented) is a different thing than proof.

But is not the claim by the Team this has already been done.
They have gone to the Mans and questioned away, and one Man even ran away to Mexico.
The Team has done the research.

Another Team can also do the research and compare their findings to the first Team.
Sounds like how scientific experiments are carried out.

But there are no published results from team #1 to compare to. By now those results could be tainted.
A Team member is a numbers guy, and number guys know how to cook the books.


The Team data and results appear to be kept to a select few and not for the world to see so this can be CNN news.

Or even a AlanM video clip

I like your suggestion.
I will do the work. I know a friend of mine would help out.
But ALL the data and results will stay with me and my Team.
It will be our secret to keep and to exploit.
No Luck needed

Quote: odiousgambit

How about betting on a 7 hop thats 6 and 1

should clean up!

Not only that one could also Wheel the 1 and another could Wheel the 6 once you know you are dealing with biased dice.

The claim is, if the dice are biased to 1 and 6 early on... they remain that way. That is powerful knowledge.
easy to beat an 11% house edge bet, only takes a couple of extra wins per cycle

Quote: 7craps

But do it at the casinos that are known to use the biased dice on the weekends.

I go to Vegas almost always during the week so I guess I miss most of the bias dice action.

Hey hey.. I meant a boardgaming, cheap 25c dice, with huge drilled holes in the pips for 6/5.

Quote: Harley

dwheatley and thecesspit - not so fast my friends ....
if you for a second doubt AHigh's results as chance or just a pattern,
then you have to concur that I am a better prophet than Nostradamus
because I told AHigh before he even walked into that casino what the results would be biased to ...

For any two faces of a die to show more than the other four is simple math.
There are 15 possible 2 face combos you could have chosen and told Ahigh right?? (6*5/2*1)
So you bucked odds of 14 to 1 one time.
Impressive.

How about 3 times in a row. That will raise some eyebrows.

IMO, No one ever loses at poker when the odds of a 2 card suck out are 42:2 or 21 to 1 against.
Rarely ever happens

A favorable outcome to this entire scenario is that the bad dice become the type of thing that anyone can look for and identify.

The dealers at the Fiesta Rancho all thought what I was doing was absolutely ridiculous.

If the climate changes where any time you are seeing lots of hi's, lo's and 6-1 seven-outs, people start doing counts, because this is a known thing, people are not going to put up with this happening!

Especially when the victims of a biased dice that is biased this way is an intelligent member of a forum that knows their math and how to do a chi-squared test by hand on the spot.

Obviously, the edge absolutely does not get worse on the don't pass line side. It doesn't get remarkably better under normal circumstances either, but if you want to just dodge the whole biased dice thing and still the Wizard's way (max odds) just do it on the don't!

You may have an even better deal than normal on the don't and you might win REALLY BIG if you put some pressure into it seeing lots of 6's and 1's and feeling confident you know what is going on.

It's the pass line and free odds that really get hurt with heavy 6-1's. Just avoid those and do free odds on the dark side and have no fear against the bad dice.

Just realize that the volatility rules, and you can absolutely both win and lose with high variance with bad dice in the short term on both the pass line and the don't pass line. The volatility overshadows the edge very often as the Wizard tells us all!

The theoretically bad dice hurt the MOST when you do BIG COME BETS AND BIG PASSLINE BETS WITH NO ODDS and CONSISTENT (GRINDING) bet amounts. IE: no volatility, just 1.5x to 3x or so the normal edge on the pass.

Quote: Ahigh

Especially when the victims of a biased dice that is biased this way is an intelligent member of a forum that knows their math and how to do a chi-squared test by hand on the spot.

Aren't such tests always inconclusive for small numbers of trials?

You don't even need to make a conclusion. If you do the counts and it looks okay, resume betting.

If you do the counts and it comes up with a fail on the chi-squared test with high probability of fitting the biased dice test, then you complain and stop playing and tell them that the dice fit a profile of unfair dice that is well known and talked about on the internet.

You don't need a conclusion to have a cautious response to this type of scenario and to voice your concern to the casino in earshot of other people.

If this happens OVER and OVER and OVER .. eventually the casino will realize this is not going to continue and they will begin to use fair dice exclusively.

ESPECIALLY if a high roller with lots of pull gets involved.

I highly doubt they used biased dice at the Wynn. They have enough action to not need it.

But at Gold Coast? Not sure. Fiesta Rancho? Hmmm. Any $3 table that is using cheap dice and really bean-counting their drops could be in this boat.

You know at Gold Coast, they count their fire bet drops they are the definitive bean-counters over there!

Here's a photo I took of the comp they gave me after counting faces.

Except that those counts don't show any provable bias. The dice thrown are all within normal parameters (within a 1% probability). Otherwise, you are betting a hunch. The dice can turn at any moment. You could see the same bias at roulette or any card game. It's all short term.

Quote: tupp

If it is so simple, perhaps you and AlanM would care to do the research and contact dice manufacturers and/or sample different brands of dice and extract pip material and dice body material and weigh them against each other, and then publish the results in an orderly manner on this forum.

I have nothing to prove. I have not made any claims or allegations. In fact, I have no reason to even think the dice are not fair.

You guys have become the Rob Singers of the craps world. Now, I like Rob, but I've told him to his face that I have no reason to suspect that video poker machines are not random or rigged. And I am telling you that where I have played, (Caesars, Bellagio, MGM, NYNY, Mandalay Bay, Gold Strike, Red Rock), I have no reason to suspect there is anything "wrong" with their dice.

Now, if you guys want to go on record and name names of casinos and charge them with using rigged dice go ahead. I'm sure it will make interesting reading.

You ask me to track the throws on a table? Do you really expect or think or believe that tracking rolls will reveal if dice are biased?

The only way to say dice are biased is to cut 'em up, and weigh the parts. Tracking rolls is only circumstantial evidence. It would not hold up in court. So you guys who want to say the casino industry is cheating the public show your proof.

We've been asking Rob for several years now to show his proof that the machines are rigged. Like you, he has compiled "data" of video poker hands. The proof would be in the machines and the RNGs and he doesn't have them. It seems they were on loan to him and they were returned.

Quote: AlanMendelson

The only way to say dice are biased is to cut 'em up, and weigh the parts.

So you're not buying the Harley videos where he spins the dice?

Quote: odiousgambit

So you're not buying the Harley videos where he spins the dice?

Not as good as cutting the dice into equal sections for each face and weighing them independently. He alleges the pips make a difference. Okay then, let's weigh and see the difference. It is simple and it is direct.

Put the spinner in court, and watch the challenges to the accuracy of the spinner.

I can't even begin to tell you what the challenges to Ahigh's peanut butter would be like.

Spinners can be very misleading. Corner wear can fool the spinner.

Keyser is right. And in general, even the best dealers and people who are very close to this issue are not truly experienced enough to make conclusions from examining burned corners and knowing what these $40 dice "balancers" if you can call them that.

The number of people who are knowledgeable on this subject is very very very few.

The guy who made my balancer is one of those people.



http://www.precisionmicromachining.com

THIS GUY IS A HARD WORKER! And *HE* is THE expert.

I seriously thought this whole thing was going to go away.

If anybody wants a balancer that works, I can have Steve make one for you. Steve has invested his own personal money in addition to the thousands that I threw in to make the balancer that actually works.

Until then, don't count yourself as "in the know" on how to tell anything about how a die is balanced.

But even STILL here is another point: the only thing that matters is outcomes of suspected bad dice on suspected tables using said suspected dice. They may, in fact, be perfectly balanced. There is a possibility that there is a way to get favorable results on a stick of dice to combat average craps players bets that we have NO IDEA ABOUT AT ALL as the general public. There are many possibilities.

There is absolutely not enough evidence to make a conclusion. But seriously, when it took less than 24 hours after talking to Harley in this room:



until I found evidence that very nearly EXACTLY matched my theoretically most desirable dice bias for killing the do's without exposing the don'ts, the ONLY thing that I was surprised about was that there seemed to be a very REAL possibility of EXPOSURE IN THE FIELD.

Until someone else actually goes and does work like I did (which is really hard work) I don't think anyone else has any position (without data or work) to say anything else about this. Its the results that matter.

And absolutely NOTHING IS PROVEN. We always have the genius saying "THIS PROVES NOTHING." Who here did not know this was not proof until the genius spoke? Please thank the genius, then.

But trust me, this is work and evidence resulting from work, and nothing more, and nothing less.

This is not a class on how to exploit bad dice. This is not me bragging about how I made money from the work. I lost money this day. Alright. It's work!

Here is the link where I examined what the theoretically ideal biased dice would look like (not exposing the field)

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/12868-dice-testing/6/#post218359

Quote: Ahigh

I've been running through scenarios based on non-random dice outcomes for Harley's theory of biased dice too. Through trial and error, it seems that the sweet spot for a casino would be to have one die with the six coming up 9/49ths of the time and the other five faces coming up 8/49ths of the time, and the other dice with the one face coming up 9/49ths of the time and the other faces coming up 8/49ths of the time.

Alternately, if you could somehow bias both dice to have the six or the one both coming up 17/98th of the time of the time and the other faces coming up 16/98ths of the time, the results are quite similar. I don't know how technically feasible it is to have the six or the one equally biased to come up more often than the other four faces, however.

The Chinese dice come in sticks of six usually anecdotally. And this may be of relevance if the bias is weighted more to the six on half the dice and more to the aces on the other half (of course we are still talking theory here).

The edge on the field is reduced a little bit due to having more sixes and ones. But the edge on the pass line increases dramatically and the edge on the don't pass doesn't change much.

If these dice exist and somehow found their way to the Santa Ana Star, the casino would get killed on the free field bet(!!!)

I am still a skeptic, but at least I am just trying to map out the theory of how much more money the house could make by employing biased dice, and given typical betting patterns, it does look like the math supports the idea that you could generate more money using biased dice without increasing your exposure all that much.

You might be a little more open to someone winning in the field, but that edge is pretty huge. The biggest thing is possible exposure on the don't pass line if your bias gets too heavy on the six face or the one face. There is a sweet spot on the distribution of outcomes for the theoretically gaffed dice.

One die biased to the one, one die biased to the six.



Both dice equally biased to the six and one.







The only one with an edge would be if the player chooses two dice that are both more likely to come up with an ace.

In this case, grinding on the don't pass yields a small edge due to payout on the aces.

According to all this theory of optimal gaffed dice, the one possible exposure point to the player for finely tuned gaffed dice from the casino is if you lay max odds on the don'ts with two dice showing too many aces, you can make about $0.02 per roll with no odds and $0.50 per roll in edge laying max odds on a 10x table (or thereabouts). Two dice heavy on the sixes doesn't have any exposure with these ideal theoretical biases towards the sixes.

So in theory, an ideal pair of gaffed dice (for the casino's best money-making potential) would have one die heavy towards the ace, the other dice heavy towards the six, and the distribution of outcomes over time need to be finely tuned to have 9/49ths sixes and 8/49ths every other face.

I need to add that I am the biggest skeptic that this is happening, but if someone did a bunch of trials on Chinese dice (or any other dice being used in the casino) and found these ratios to be coming up, it might be an interesting drama to continue pursuing.

There are other explanations besides balance for why aces and sixes come more frequently, but those are the faces the casinos would like to see, apparently, according to my simulations.

I just ran a $25 buy on the ten for 200,000 rolls and the house edge is gone, but no long-term exposure with these ratios. The same would be true for the four. So this is the magic ratio to take more money from the pass line without creating too much exposure anywhere except the don't pass assuming there times when both dice are more heavily weighted to the aces.

In other words, if you bias more heavily to the six, you create exposure somewhere else (like buying the ten or placing the 8). And if you bias less heavily, you are not taking full advantage of the majority of the players who are betting the passline with odds.

Chi-squared compared to evenly distributed outcomes comes up with a 0.393078 confidence
Chi-squared compared to the theoretically optimally gaffed dice comes up with a 0.680780865 confidence

I calculated the ideal gaffed dice for Harley's theories to be 9,8,8,8,8,9 ratios. Which scaled up is 129.92, 122.28, 122.28, 122.28, 122.28, 129.92,

129.92 130 0.680780865
122.28 125
122.28 108
122.28 125
122.28 119
129.92 142

124.83 130 0.393078479
124.83 125
124.83 108
124.83 125
124.83 119
124.83 142

The numbers say these dice are 73% more likely to be the theoretically biased dice than they are to be fair dice. Of course these dice are theoretical at this time and are not known to even exist. But the theory of these dice existing was profiled in the above quoted post that many people, including Harley, missed.

For those who like to jump to the "this isn't proof" statement, please spare us, alright. This is just work that I am doing out of obligation for being Harley's long-time critic and nemesis.

How many other people do work that goes against their previous findings? I'm not preaching biased dice, I'm just looking into the possibility, and I have to admit that everything that I have found so far SUPPORTS rather than REFUTES Harley's theories.

I will be honest with you: I don't like this at all. Especially the work part, and the part where I am losing money doing "research" because I have continued to bet heavy passline and come bets even after looking at all this data.

AlanMendelson

This thread can go on forever with the same guys saying the same thing, “PROVE TO US THE THE DICE ARE BIASED” some players want 100% proof that the dice will come up the same way ever time. They want a system that can beat the dice 100% of the time, they want someone else to do all the work for them and have them give it to them on a silver platter.

Well that just isn't going to happen, and it all goes back to when this was just brought out as a warning, get off the tables if you are seeing the sevens coming one way, go find a different table to play on!
There is nobody here selling you on anything, nobody is teaching a way to beat the bad dice, the main reason it was brought to life was to get the gaming board to do something about it, that will never happen in the state of NV, where it's still the Wild, Wild West and there are no rules on the dice that can be used on the casino tables.

That's right guys no rules! If you think that there are please show everybody on this board them!
Now in the case of Colorado, some of you guys that play there should be thanking Harley for sending in rules that they needed to have in place to have a fair game on the craps tables. He took his time to correspond with their gaming board, that was looking to have fair games in their state before they had craps made available to the public.

You also have NJ that he didn't have anything to do with but they had the foresight to incorporate rules that work for the players and the casino. I just love this one:

Quote:

19:47-1.8 Throw of the dice
Upon selection of the dice, the shooter shall make a Pass or Don't Pass Bet after which he shall throw the two selected dice so that they leave his hand simultaneously and in a manner calculated to cause them to strike the end of the table farthest from him.

http://www.state.nj.us/casinos/actreg/reg/docs_chapter47/c47s01.pdf

So if you want proof take that pen and paper to the tables and track the tables, learn to bet accordingly. Then thank Harley and anybody like Ahigh that has done all the work to show everybody that there is a problem with this cheap dice being in play on the tables.

Then if you want something done about it, push to have the laws changed in NV, so we too have fair laws on the game of craps!


Just think about what that one section 19:47-1.8 Throw of the dice would do, when you had a shooter that had one of his dice hit the back wall and the other one didn't, the casino could call it a no roll if the dice were in the air or it would be a fair roll. We wouldn't have these sweat joints telling the shooter that they were going to take the dice off them because one die didn't hit the back wall.
By the way for every casino out there, every guy you think is a DI always wants to hit the back wall with their dice, every time they pick them up. That is what they practice doing!!!!!!

Thanks Ahigh for putting in all the time money and effort to come up with your findings!!!!!

By the way here is what Colorado has to say about the dice that can be used there.

Quote:

(1) Be formed in the shape of a perfect cube and of a size no smaller than 0.750 of an inch on each side nor any larger than 0.775 of an inch on each side;
(2) Be transparent and made exclusively of cellulose except for the spots, name or trade name of the casino licensee and serial number or letters contained thereon;
(3) Have the surface of each of its sides perfectly flat and the spots contained in each side perfectly flush with the area surrounding them;
(4) Have all edges and corners perfectly square and forming perfect 90 degree angles;
(5) Have the texture and finish of each side exactly identical to the texture and finish of all other sides;
(6) Have its weight equally distributed throughout the cube and no side of the cube heavier or lighter than any other side of the cube;
(7) Have its six sides bearing white circular spots from one to six respectively with the diameter of each spot equal to the diameter of every other spot on the die;
(8) Have spots arranged so that the side containing one spot is directly opposite the side containing six spots, the side containing two spots is directly opposite the side containing five spots and the side containing three spots is directly opposite the side containing four spots; each spot shall be placed on the die by drilling into the surface of the cube and filling the drilled out portion with a compound which is equal in weight to the weight of the cellulose drilled out and which forms a permanent bond with the cellulose cube, and shall extend into the cube exactly the same distance as every other spot extends into the cube to an accuracy tolerance of .0004 of an inch; and
(9) Have imprinted or impressed thereon the name or trade name of the casino licensee in which the die is being used, and a unique serialized number.
47.1-1281 Dice; receipt; storage; inspections and removal from use
(1) When dice are received for use in a licensed premise, the boxes shall be placed for storage in a primary or secondary storage area located in a secure location approved by the Division. Dice maintained in secondary storage areas shall be transferred to the primary storage area before being distributed to the pits or tables.
(2) All primary and secondary storage areas shall have two separate locks. The licensee’s security department shall maintain one key and the table games department shall maintain the other key.
(3) As necessary, the licensee shall remove the appropriate number of dice from the primary storage area.
4) Once removed from the primary storage area, the licensee shall take the dice to the pit and shall secure them in a single locked drawer designated for gaming instruments (i.e., cards, dice, roulette balls, and gaming forms) or distribute them to a boxperson or other pit supervisor.
(a) Prior to use in a game, the manager on duty or pit supervisor shall inspect the dice with a micrometer, balancing caliper, a steel set square and a magnet or any other instrument approved by the Division. A balancing caliper, a steel set square and a magnet, shall be kept in a compartment at each craps table or pit stand and shall be at all times readily available for use by the Division upon request.
(b) Following this inspection, the dice shall be placed in a cup on the table for use in gaming. At all times while the dice are at the table, they shall never be left unattended.
(c) If dice are stored in the pit, they shall be kept in a single locked drawer designated for gaming instruments (i.e., cards, dice, roulette balls, and gaming forms). The locked storage area may be used to store dice for one week. Access to the locked storage area is limited to the pit supervisor. The pit supervisor shall maintain a current log that reflects the current number and color of dice in the locked storage area. Any discrepancy shall be immediately reported to the Division.
(5) The licensee shall remove any dice from use any time there is any indication of tampering, flaws or other defects that might affect the integrity or fairness of the game, or at the request of the Division.
(6) At the end of the gaming day or at such other times as may be necessary, a pit supervisor shall visually inspect each die for evidence of tampering. Any evidence of tampering or suspected tampering must be immediately reported to the Division.
(7) Any die showing evidence of tampering shall be placed in a sealed envelope or container, identified by table number, date, and time, and the envelope must be signed or initialed by the boxperson and pit supervisor.
(8) All extra dice in reserve that are to be destroyed or cancelled shall be placed in a sealed envelope or container, with a label attached to each envelope or container which identifies the date and time and is signed by the pit supervisor.
(9) At least once each gaming day, or at such other times as may be necessary, a licensed security officer shall collect and sign all envelopes or containers of used dice and any dice in reserve that are to be destroyed or cancelled and shall transport them to a designated location approved by the Division for cancellation or destruction. No dice that have been placed in a cup for use in gaming shall remain on a table for more than 24 hours.
47.1-1282 Cancellation and destruction of dice.
All dice removed from a game, except those retained for Division inspection, shall be immediately cancelled to prevent reintroduction of the dice to the game. Cancellation shall occur by use of cancellation tool, scribe or any other tool to produce a cancellation mark that is permanent and clearly visible on each die. Licensees shall have the option to destroy the cancelled dice by drilling a circular hole of at least three-sixteenths of one inch (3/16” ) in diameter through the center of each die or by any other method approved by the Director or designee.

Now here is the big question for everybody that knows everything about the game of craps, if other states have the above type of rules in place to protect the gaming public, why doesn't NV or any other state that has craps?

Quote: Ahigh

When it took less than 24 hours after talking to Harley in this room, until I found evidence that very nearly EXACTLY matched my theoretically most desirable dice bias for killing the do's without exposing the don'ts,

That sounds like a flat-out waffle setting up a perfect escape valve, to mix a couple of metaphors. It will be fascinating to see any explanation of how it can be possible to penalize the do's while not rewarding the don'ts. Unless all the dice do is come up boxcars -- a hell of a lot more than 1 in 36.

None of your charts and graphs mean anything because they are just exagerrations of the data at hand and represent a "what if" scenario if the dice remained the same. They're pretty... all you need is binomial distribution.

By the way, in that sample, you disregard the "3" which lands as infrequently as the "6" rolls frequently. So why is a 6 biased and a 3 anti-biased. Explain why the 4 and 2 come out pretty much exactly as expected and why the 1 appears more frequently as much as the 5 appears less frequently.

Show me the physics and weight of each die that would give me that expected distribution as shown. Because if the die has a different "centre of gravity", you would expect to see opposite die faces with smaller values. More 6s, less 1s - or- more 4s, less 3s - or- more 5s, less 2s. If the die has different centres of gravity, you would see a complex effect but I still would argue wouldn't give you more likelihood of the result seen.

I actually would think that dice would be more subject to bias based on the surface area of each die face.

Quote: superrick

Now here is the big question for everybody that knows everything about the game of craps, if other states have the above type of rules in place to protect the gaming public, why doesn't NV or any other state that has craps?

I put that question to the Nevada gaming authorities and I wrote about it some time ago in an article on my website. Here's the quote:

Theresa Zellhoefer of the Encorcement Division told me that "Nevada operates differently" than New Jersey and Nevada does not publish specific rules or regulations for the game of craps. "We established minimum controls," she told me, and the casinos have to meet those minimums and they can exceed them, "and then we say okay."

Now if you somehow think that means that loaded, rigged, biased dice are approved for use please call up the Enforcement Division and ask them.

The full article concerns New Jersey publishing its rules for craps and it is at http://alanbestbuys.com/id139.html and it is dated Oct 27, 2011.

Quote: Ahigh

The numbers say these dice are 73% more likely to be the theoretically biased dice than they are to be fair dice. Of course these dice are theoretical at this time and are not known to even exist. But the theory of these dice existing was profiled in the above quoted post that many people, including Harley, missed.

I'm not sure you can use that 73% number to compare two chi-squared confidence values (I see how you got it).

I don't know how to express it better though, but basically, the null hypothesis has gotta be ranking much lower for you to be able to make a useful statement on what's 'more likely'.

I do think using the 9/8/8/8/8/9 ratio is at least a model you can test against though.

Quote: boymimbo

Show me the physics and weight of each die that would give me that expected distribution as shown.

If all of the bias is attributed to heavier sides for the 6 and 5 faces, then we should see more aces and ace-deuces than 7s.

Quote: AlanMendelson

If all of the bias is attributed to heavier sides for the 6 and 5 faces, then we should see more aces and ace-deuces than 7s.

This is the main thing that kept me from thinking there was any credibility at all to Harley's theories before a week or so ago.

I think there are other possible explanations besides imbalance. One such difference is the difference in elasticity of the die due to the placement of various numbers of pips on each face.

Intuition tells me that the pips are more rigid than the transparent part of the die. The majority of die bounces occur on corners. The relative rigidity of each corner may vary according to how many pips are nearby.

I suggested to Harley that the easiest way to make a fair die would be to drill seven pips on each face, and color some pips white and the other pips the same color as the transparent part (except making them opaque using the same resin with a different color added).

IE: the only difference between the pips would be the color added (white versus whatever color the transparent part of the die is).

To make the point simpler: it is no rocket science to create a die that is more fair (balanced and mic'ing properly or not). It should be more of a priority even if there were no suspicions at all for dice in Vegas.

The idea to do the pips this way is my own idea and I have never seen this done before. Harley suggested that I pursue a patent.

I am disclosing this idea to the public for the interest of having a more fair game. I came up with the idea on my own time, and it's being disclosed here as an idea to help dice manufacturers create a more fair die.

But if dice manufacturers want to make a fair game, I suggest that they offer such dice for sale, and I also suggest that players begin to demand such dice immediately whether they are available or not, it is a simple process to make them this way.

That would put this whole issue to rest for everyone.

If the dice manufacturers do not wish to employ this idea, to me it simply lends more credibility to Harley and his theories.

But I do wish this whole issue to go away. It would be great if dice manufacturers started offering dice like this immediately.

Quote: Ahigh

Intuition tells me that the pips are more rigid than the transparent part of the die. The majority of die bounces occur on corners. The relative rigidity of each corner may vary according to how many pips are nearby.

An utterly baseless assertion that undercuts all the numbers and graphs. If thousands were spent on the balancing gadget, some of that should have been diverted for a chemical analysis of the cube base and pips, or at least an attempt to weigh the components.

Quote: SanchoPanza

An utterly baseless assertion that undercuts all the numbers and graphs. If thousands were spent on the balancing gadget, some of that should have been diverted for a chemical analysis of the cube base and pips, or at least an attempt to weigh the components.

Here's a baseless assertion: what I should have spent my money on.

WTF? You don't get to tell me what I should have spent my money on. Nobody does.

And I have a base for my assertion: I have seen pips crack and actually come out of the drilled holes they were in (portions of them). What could explain that is if the pips are more rigid and prone to fracture on compression.

In fact, it would seem you are asserting that the physics of the bounce are completely unaffected by the fact that the geometry of the cube is not symmetrical. Now, THAT would be a baseless assertion.

This fracture occurred when the die went off the table and landed on the tile floor in my home. My theory of what happened is that when the die hit the hard floor, the corner nearest the fractured pip hit the floor first, and the pip was compressed by the collision, and rather than bounce back under the more extreme instantaneous force of the hard floor, it fractured.

There are corners of the die that have no pips. And if the extra stiffness of corners with pips on them has any effect at all, it could cause a more vigorous bounce off a corner with nearby pips than corners without pips.

And to be complete and for those who are following along, this is just one possible explanation for something that could create a biased outcome BESIDES balance.

These dice are measured and the densities are checked and re-checked, and I do have the balance that detect when the die is off balance, and in general they are all balanced enough that I really don't think that is the most likely explanation of any bias that is being observed.

The you tube videos from Koga Ninja and others who have not put as much time and energy into the balance issues I think are chasing a red herring.

But when you look at the outcomes, and they come up the way Harley says that they are coming up from his writing down rolls in the casino, that's where this whole thing has been reopened. This was case closed for me for a long time.

I think the thing to do is to focus on the statistics and characterizations of what is different for dice exhibiting this heavy 6-1 bias.

But I would not assume for one second that anybody knows or much cares even what is responsible behind the pit as long as it doesn't HURT the bottom line. If they find that certain dice increase the hold, they are going to use those dice! That's all I would expect myself. I definitely don't even see the manufacturers getting into these details as long as it ain't broke, who cares?

The suspicion is that the cheapest dice are the ones that are having the biggest issues taking more than their fair share of money from line and odds bets.

Quote: Ahigh

I have seen pips crack and actually come out of the drilled holes they were in (portions of them). What could explain that is if the pips are more rigid and prone to fracture on compression.

That could be worth checking with a materials engineer. Be sure to let the engineer know the actual sizes involved, because that could be an even more important factor in structural integrity.

Quote: Ahigh

I suggested to Harley that the easiest way to make a fair die would be to drill seven pips on each face, and color some pips white and the other pips the same color as the transparent part (except making them opaque using the same resin with a different color added).

Interesting idea. But I really need to know that even if the faces with the 6s and 5s are heavier, how much heavier can they possibly be? Or if lighter, how much lighter they can possibly be? And if that difference makes much of a difference considering all of the other variables on a dice table including how the dice are thrown by the shooter (speed, bounce, direction, angles, etc.)??

In other words, I am asking, "there might be a difference but does the difference make a difference?"

In all of my years playing craps, I have never been at a table at any casino where there was even a suspcion that the dice were not fair. Some shooters rolled a lot of 6s and some rolled a lot of 7s. Some rolled a lot of aces and some rolled a lot of boxcars.

My favorite story is about a player at Caesars many years ago who put a green chip on "12" for forty rolls in a row (a thousand dollars) and didn't hit 12 once so he gave up. I was the next shooter and my first three come-outs were all 12s. He stood there in shock. I set a point of 6 and then threw 12 three more times. And I thought he was going to drop dead right there.

Tracking tables for any of us is a meaningless exercise. This is all just a silly conversation. But, I enjoy it.

Ahigh -- let me know your availability for one night later this coming week/weekend.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Interesting idea. But I really need to know that even if the faces with the 6s and 5s are heavier, how much heavier can they possibly be? Or if lighter, how much lighter they can possibly be? And if that difference makes much of a difference considering all of the other variables on a dice table including how the dice are thrown by the shooter (speed, bounce, direction, angles, etc.)??

In other words, I am asking, "there might be a difference but does the difference make a difference?".

There is some math behind casino quality dice.
It has been studied many times.
Here is one.

http://dicephysics.info/0107.htm

Findings: In this study, we found that high quality casino dice of the kind used in gambling casinos have no detectable bias.
However, low quality dice, loaded dice and non-cubic shaped dice have non-zero bias.

Loading Dice

Problem: A dice cheater wants to make dice that land with the 1 up 5% less often than normally.
The usual probability is 1/6 = 0.1667, and 5% less is 0.1583.
Assume normal 19.1 mm cubic dice with density 1.3 g/cm³ are used.

Solution: The desired bias is b = 0.05. Referring to table 2, bias / loading = 3.37.
So the loading required is L = 0.0148.
The mass of the unloaded die is 9.0 grams.
So a loading mass of 0.13 grams must be added to the "6" face.

Homework time

In the 1990s I had some custom dice made by a company I think Kardwell referred me to. I really do not remember who.
They made loaded dice for me and casino dice without any pips.
Those were cool as I used them with a sharpie to place my own numbers on them.
They are long gone but I am sure they can be duplicated today very easily.

Just measure and weigh a finished die with pips and a finished die without the pips.
This will be fun

Going to Alibaba.com and typing in casino dice is about all you need to do in order to find out that there in fact, do exist, so-called casino dice that can be purchased for $0.05 each instead of the more typical $2.00+ each. IE: $0.25 per stick instead of $12.50 per stick.

Many of these dice have minimum orders of 10,000 dice or even 100,000 dice. I know from experience, you usually have to pay $1,000 just to do all the crap to have them sent overseas (I imported tungsten cubes and learned the hard way about import brokers, and all the fees for bringing stuff over from China).

The bottom line is that _SOMEBODY_ is buying these casino dice and either re-selling them or using them in casinos.

You can buy these 19mm dice on-ebay, but I don't think there are a lot of individuals buying cheap chinese dice on e-bay.

It really begs the question: where are all these nickel-cost dice going?

http://www.alibaba.com/trade/search?fsb=y&IndexArea=product_en&CatId=&SearchText=casino+dice

Fair dice absolutely do exist, and I don't think that there is anyone suggesting that they don't. The real question is why is it even allowable by Nevada Law for circumstances to exist where these questions are not properly answered by customers who would like to demand fair dice but cannot?

Certainly the casinos are aware that providing fair dice is something that they could emphasize to the customers that they are doing, but it's just not a priority.

Frankly, I think that there should be six counters on each craps table that shows the occurrence of each face for the stick that is currently in play. That would lend a lot of credibility to comfort level of customers that fair dice are in play.

Quote: Ahigh

Frankly, I think that there should be six counters on each craps table that shows the occurrence of each face for the stick that is currently in play.

Seriously? No room for hot streaks, cold streaks, strings of horn hits? That's a dull dice game.

And if the faces don't show their expected outcomes over a given time period you'd....what?

Gee Biased Dice, Dice Setters, and yet the casino's still win. PFM !

Quote: Calder

Seriously? No room for hot streaks, cold streaks, strings of horn hits? That's a dull dice game.

And if the faces don't show their expected outcomes over a given time period you'd....what?

Let me guess, you read two sentences of this discussion and thought you'd join in with a response?