Craps betting strategies

Quote: Ahigh

Does anyone know if the wizard uses these fractional ranges to come up with the combined house edges that everyone references so often

Yes. This has been asked before, and of course it would be quite shocking if it were otherwise.

Quote: Ahigh

Does anyone know if the wizard uses these fractional ranges to come up with the combined house edges that everyone references so often, or is a 50% number used where it's assumed that half the bets are free and half the bets are not free?

Nice question.

The Wizard uses a formula
"The general formula if you can take x times odds on the 6 and 8, y times on the 5 and 9, and z times on the 4 and 10 is
(-7 / 495) / [ 1 + ((5x + 4y + 3z) / 18) ]"
= -0.001844532 for 10X
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/1/

The "combined" house edge of say 10X odds is just a weighted average of all the possible outcomes.
This is how I do it in Excel. Per decision


Not much to it
In order to use the "combined" house edge in any calculations, one must know the average bet.
Most do not know what that is with $5 flat and $50 odds but they should know.


The combined house edge does not change because you make more or less come bets.
The EV does

Quote: Ahigh

The house edge per roll in craps is 0.4% or higher on 20% of the rolls on the table. Period.

IE: no math in the world will give you a free bet when the puck says off. The puck says off on average about 20% the time.

If you were to look at the average percentage house edge per roll, it never goes below 1/5th of 0.4% or 0.08%. So if you want to talk about the lowest house edge, there are no craps tables anywhere that have house edges per roll that average lower than 0.08%. That is as low as the average house edge percentage will ever go on any craps table that I know of besides possibly the Santa Anta Star.

To calculate the true average house edge per roll, you have to realize that the percentage of free bets is less than half. In fact, you can only get an average of about two free bets per roll even if you try as hard as you can! And even in that case, you have an average of three non-free bets in that case.

If you only cover one point, 20% of the time you have no free bets, and 80% of the time you have two non free bets and one free bet. Here's the details of the best case scenarios on average:


So about 30.76% to 40.69% of your bets are allowed to be free bets depending on how many points you decide to cover.

I think a lot of people think it's 50% who haven't done this type of looking into the details.

Does anyone know if the wizard uses these fractional ranges to come up with the combined house edges that everyone references so often, or is a 50% number used where it's assumed that half the bets are free and half the bets are not free?

What do you mean by a "free bet"? Does this just refer to odds bets?
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: goatcabin

What do you mean by a "free bet"?
Cheers,
Alan Shank

The odds bet in craps is a "free bet" meaning it has 0 house edge to it. A point of 4 or 10 pays 2:1, a point of 5 or 9 pays 3:2 and a point of 6 or 8 pays 6:5, Considering there are 6 ways to roll a 7 (1-6, 2-5. 3-4, 4-4, 5-2, 6-1), 5 ways to make each a 6 or 8( 1-5, 2-4, 3-3, 4-2, 5-1, 2-6, 3-5, 4-4, 5-3, 6-2), 4 ways each to make a 5 or 9 (1-4, 2-3, 3-2, 4-1, 3-6, 4-5, 5-4, 6-3), or 3 ways each to make a 4 or 10 (1-3,2-2, 3-1, 4-6, 5-5, 6-4)

Here's what I'm trying to get at. I am still working on the details, but less often than the comeout roll is the case where you are on the comeout after a seven has rolled and before a box number has rolled.

Let's just assume, right or wrong, that it's 22% of the time.

During that time, you are not allowed to have any odds or lay odds bets. But if you want to play the game, you are forced to only have bets that have edges of 0.4% or higher.

On this basis and this basis alone, I am suggesting that the focus on percentages, if you want to be fair, should consider the average percentage as a function of real-world time on the clock.

And at LEAST 20% of the time when you are playing the game of craps, you are FORCED to take a house edge of 0.4% or higher (per roll people, please let's not do another tangent).

The rest of the details about what percentage of rolls you are disallowed from placing any odds or lay odds bets (what I call a free bet) aren't important really as much as there is a significant portion of the time of play of the game when you have to deal with no good bets to take and you have to deal with the comeout roll with no odds or lay odds bets.

But I am making the point that the wonderful part of the game gets put on pause when you're on the comeout roll and there are no odds that you can work unless you want to make a put bet.

The discussion about the comeout being 29% of the time is a tangent really. I'm talking about the comeout after a seven. Not the comeout after a point is made because you can always work your odds in that case.

And really what I'm saying is that this is just another way of looking at the game by splitting it up into multiple games divided by real-world time slices.

A good chunk of the game is just 0.4% per roll with no odds or lay odds bets available.

I imagine that most people just lump that portion of the game into "cost of doing business" and not important. But the percentages are a lot higher during that time even if the action is a lot lower.

Quote: Ahigh

Here's what I'm trying to get at. I am still working on the details, but less often than the comeout roll is the case where you are on the comeout after a seven has rolled and before a box number has rolled.

Let's just assume, right or wrong, that it's 22% of the time.

But I am making the point that the wonderful part of the game gets put on pause when you're on the comeout roll and there are no odds that you can work unless you want to make a put bet.

The discussion about the comeout being 29% of the time is a tangent really. I'm talking about the comeout after a seven. Not the comeout after a point is made because you can always work your odds in that case.

So, you are talking about a new shooter coming out, or after a new shooter's one or more comeout decisions.
"Seven out, line away"
"New shooter, coming out" (next roll no odds bets)
"Frontline winner seven (or eleven)!" (next roll no odds bets)
"Craps, take the line." (next roll no odds bets)
"The point is <whatever>" (next roll odds bets, and all rolls until this shooter sevens out)

Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: goatcabin

So, you are talking about a new shooter coming out, or after a new shooter's one or more comeout decisions.
"Seven out, line away"
"New shooter, coming out" (next roll no odds bets)
"Frontline winner seven (or eleven)!" (next roll no odds bets)
"Craps, take the line." (next roll no odds bets)
"The point is <whatever>" (next roll odds bets, and all rolls until this shooter sevens out)

Cheers,
Alan Shank

There's other cases when you set a point and make the point without rolling another box number first, but yeah. Or even if you are covering multiple points (pass line and one come bet).

"New shooter coming out" (rolls a six)
"Six is mark it up" (bets a come bet and rolls a 5)
"Come bet travels to the 5" (no come bet - rolls five again)
"Pay the five" ($5 coming)
"Six is" (working bet on six gets paid)
"Six winner" (no odds bets allowed at this point but same shooter that already got paid multiple times)

You got it. It's a subset of comeout rolls and I did have some errors in my numbers, but somewhere in the ballpark of 22% of the rolls in this game is in this land of no odds bets allowed without a put bet.

To me, though, it's even MORE interesting to know that you generally can't get above 2 free bets on average for a given roll in the game no matter what you do with random rolls.

I'm really trying to map out more than just some AVERAGE percentages here as I think having these single numbers that say how low the edge is sort of misleads you into thinking you are playing a game that always has that low of an edge. The edge (as a percentage on a given roll) goes up and down and up and down and up and down, and for a significant portion of the time you are playing the game, you have a game with an edge of 0.4% per roll or higher.

And, yes, when most people aren't working the comeout with more than one number covered, the average edge expressed as a percentage of the total action on the felt are even higher.

So it's like every now and then you have great edges if you take a lot of odds and work them on the comeout, but a big chunk of the time, you're talking about 0.4% per roll and you are also expect to keep betting over and over and over.

In addition, the volatility goes to zilch when you aren't working your come odds bets and covering more than one number. That means you are getting creamed on your edges with more than one point covered.

There is actually a really big case for not ever betting the come bet to be made from the simple fact that you don't want to reduce volatility by making a come bet when you already have a passline bet.

If you flat bet a passline bet and a come bet on every roll, even really good shooters have a hard time defeating the low volatility edge of that betting pattern.

In fact, it's this challenge that I find one of the most fun games to play. If you can double your money on a $100 buy-in doing nothing but flat betting the passline and come bet each and every roll, you are a damn fine shooter in my opinion! And the chance of losing quickly is still pretty low, but you are probably going to lose $0.02 per roll per $5 average on the felt no matter how lucky you get!! And profits are going to have to be something more than just a little luck. You have to roll a lot of seven-winners with no working bets and yos into your come bets to really get it done easily enough.

Quote: Ahigh

Less often than the comeout roll is the case where you are on the comeout after a seven has rolled and before a box number has rolled. Let's just assume, right or wrong, that it's 22% of the time. During that time, you are not allowed to have any odds or lay odds bets. But if you want to play the game, you are forced to only have bets that have edges of 0.4% or higher.

As it stands that statement is grossly incorrect and deserves either a clarification or a retraction.

Quote: SanchoPanza

As it stands that statement is grossly incorrect and deserves either a clarification or a retraction.

I will work on it. I don't know if I have my numbers right. But the 22% is about as low of a percentage of the game that can be created where there are no odds bets available. If you only have one passline bet, you can not have any odds bets working on the comeout, and so then I guess you would be looking at the 29%.

But if you work odds on the comeout, for a percentage of the comeout roll, you have just made a point and have other come bets with odds working, so the fraction goes down from 29% to 22% in general as you begin to bet to establish more travelled come bets with opportunities to bet odds bets on top of those and ultimately to work them on the comeout.

But the point that I am making is that during the time that you have no odds bets, either you can say you have no game relative to the "real" action, or you have to admit you do have a game with a 0.4% or higher edge per roll. That is the point that I am making. It is deceiving to lump the whole game together with a single combined edge. That is my opinion, and that's the point that I am trying to make here.

The modality of this, including the volatility going up and down with that modality creates and environment that is random in and of itself. It's exciting and unpredictable, but I just get the feeling that many people don't appreciate these effects.

You can see it in the charts with these flat spots and then you have wild swings when you get lots of come bets with odds that get activated.

It has been a real eye opener for me looking at charts to see what these betting strategies look like. Being able to have a feel for what is going on as it relates to the outcome of the dice is something that I think very few people truly understand. Even the lucky winners -- maybe even ESPECIALLY the lucky winners.

Quote: Gabes22

The odds bet in craps is a "free bet" meaning it has 0 house edge to it. A point of 4 or 10 pays 2:1, a point of 5 or 9 pays 3:2 and a point of 6 or 8 pays 6:5, Considering there are 6 ways to roll a 7 (1-6, 2-5. 3-4, 4-4, 5-2, 6-1), 5 ways to make each a 6 or 8( 1-5, 2-4, 3-3, 4-2, 5-1, 2-6, 3-5, 4-4, 5-3, 6-2), 4 ways each to make a 5 or 9 (1-4, 2-3, 3-2, 4-1, 3-6, 4-5, 5-4, 6-3), or 3 ways each to make a 4 or 10 (1-3,2-2, 3-1, 4-6, 5-5, 6-4)

This assumes the use of Fair balanced dice ...... However, too often in Vegas there is no "free bet' or Zero house edge since unbalanced percentage dice have increased the house advantage to make all the common payouts untrue .... just like 6:5 BlackJack did to it's game

Here's an excerpt from a post I made around 3 years ago:

"Just for fun, I created a WinCraps autobet file that takes as input the maximum number of come bets to allow at a time. I set it up to stop betting at 200 rolls, wait for any bets to be resolved and end the session. I ran 2000 sessions for each input 1-6. I had discovered before that, although a come bet is made only 2/3 of the time, when the passline comeout establishes a point, the number of come bets resolved is more like 80% of the number of passline bets. This is because sometimes the passline bet gets resolved and there's still a come bet outstanding. On the next pass comeout, the come bet may be resolved and another come bet put up.

max comes	1	2	3	4	5	6
come/pass	.82	1.45	1.91	2.21	2.38	2.44

The numbers are fairly close to .8 + .8^2 + .8^3 + ... .8^n.

So, basically, if you make a come bet on every non-comeout roll, your average total of flat bets will be close to 3 1/2 times your basic amount. So, if you are a $10 passline bettor, and you make 60 bets, your total bet handle would be close to $2060, yielding an expected loss of about $29. That's without taking any odds, of course. If you took odds, the proportions would remain the same, assuming you always worked your come odds. Taking the odds would not increase the expected loss, just the volatility, risk of ruin, chance of coming out ahead and chance of a big win."

I'm not sure how relevant this info is to AceHigh's point, but, for whatever it's worth, enjoy.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: Ahigh

I will work on it.
I don't know if I have my numbers right.
But the 22% is about as low of a percentage of the game that can be created where there are no odds bets available.
If you only have one passline bet, you can not have any odds bets working on the comeout, and so then I guess you would be looking at the 29%.

I gather you are trying to simulate (say)
pass and 2 come bets max working at one time, (come bets are come points when on a number, like come4 or come8)
and see how many times (percentage) can you make an odds bet?
OK I see.
you kept saying line bets and free bets.
Call the bets what they are.
pass
come
pass odds
come odds
That way we are all on the same page...

=======================================
From my come bet simulation results: average # of come points
per 100 rolls:
having max 1 come point avg: 16 per 100 rolls
having max 2 come point avg: 29
having max 3 come point avg: 38, stdev:4.1, min:23, max:60
having max 4 come point avg: 44
having max 5 come point avg: 47
having max 6 come point avg: 48, stdev:6.3, min:26, max:85

I re-post some data here (per 100 rolls)
having max 1 come point avg: 16 come points (bets with odds) and 24 average total come bets made per 100 rolls
having max 2 come point avg: 29 come points (bets with odds) and 43 average total come bets made
having max 3 come point avg: 38 come points (bets with odds) and 57 average total come bets made
having max 4 come point avg: 44 come points (bets with odds) and 66 average total come bets made
having max 5 come point avg: 47 come points (bets with odds) and 71 average total come bets made
having max 6 come point avg: 48 come points (bets with odds)

You can still add the number of pass line bets and odds bets per 100 rolls to the above.
That should be a simple calculation
100/(557/165) = 29.62 come out rolls per 100 rolls
2/3 of the time we can take the odds bet = 19.75 odds bet made per 100 rolls
For a pass and max 1 come
16 come points + 19.75 pass odds = 35.75 odds bets made in 100 rolls or .3575 per roll
a 10 million roll sim returned .3549 odds bets per roll
(so I rounded the 16 come points in an earlier sim)

also see Alan's post (I was looking for that post too)


Multiple bets together with and without odds still does nothing to change the house edge for each type of bet.
-7/495 for pass and come bets
0% for odds bet
Many do not even consider the combined house edge for line bets.
The EV is a way better consideration.

But most know you like to calculate the edge at every round of a 2 stage bet
(especially pass and come bets since for their point round they are contract bets)
Keep at it

Okay, I think I got numbers that at least match for one point now. I have no idea if these are right with so many mistakes I made to this point.

==> out/do,1p,w,10x.txt <==
Average number of points covered was 0.704
Percentage of rolls with 0 points covered was 29.558%
Percentage of rolls with 1 points covered was 70.442%
Avg # odds bets 0.704

==> out/do,2p,w,10x.txt <==
Average number of points covered was 1.505
Percentage of rolls with 0 points covered was 8.298%
Percentage of rolls with 1 points covered was 32.925%
Percentage of rolls with 2 points covered was 58.778%
Avg # odds bets 1.505

==> out/do,3p,w,10x.txt <==
Average number of points covered was 2.119
Percentage of rolls with 0 points covered was 8.298%
Percentage of rolls with 1 points covered was 25.627%
Percentage of rolls with 2 points covered was 11.909%
Percentage of rolls with 3 points covered was 54.166%
Avg # odds bets 2.119

==> out/do,4p,w,10x.txt <==
Average number of points covered was 2.565
Percentage of rolls with 0 points covered was 8.298%
Percentage of rolls with 1 points covered was 25.627%
Percentage of rolls with 2 points covered was 6.704%
Percentage of rolls with 3 points covered was 20.030%
Percentage of rolls with 4 points covered was 39.342%
Avg # odds bets 2.565

==> out/do,5p,w,10x.txt <==
Average number of points covered was 2.860
Percentage of rolls with 0 points covered was 8.298%
Percentage of rolls with 1 points covered was 25.627%
Percentage of rolls with 2 points covered was 6.704%
Percentage of rolls with 3 points covered was 16.602%
Percentage of rolls with 4 points covered was 16.689%
Percentage of rolls with 5 points covered was 26.081%
Avg # odds bets 2.860

==> out/do,6p,w,10x.txt <==
Average number of points covered was 3.023
Percentage of rolls with 0 points covered was 8.298%
Percentage of rolls with 1 points covered was 25.627%
Percentage of rolls with 2 points covered was 6.704%
Percentage of rolls with 3 points covered was 16.602%
Percentage of rolls with 4 points covered was 14.808%
Percentage of rolls with 5 points covered was 13.536%
Percentage of rolls with 6 points covered was 14.426%
Avg # odds bets 3.023

Quote: Harley

This assumes the use of Fair balanced dice ...... However, too often in Vegas there is no "free bet' or Zero house edge since unbalanced percentage dice have increased the house advantage to make all the common payouts untrue .... just like 6:5 BlackJack did to it's game

Without contradicting Harley, I do want to point out that I believe fair dice do exist and I believe they are in use more often than not. While I have no evidence to correlate a dice manufacturer with even suspected unfair dice, I have so far not had any problems with Bee branded dice and/or the Gambler's General Store and/or American Playing Card Company.

The dice that looked like heavy six-one on the Ahigh show were Paulson dice. I have heard reports of Paulson dice not mic'ing properly from Wayne at the Silverton (not all of them, just sometimes).

It happens that dice have to be sent back to the factory after not passing quality inspection at the casino.

Currently, Paulson, Bud Jones, and Tk are all the same company (GPIC). Right after I showed up at the M and started talking about biased dice, they took Bud Jones dice off the table and put Bee dice on the table. I don't suspect anything at this point, just stating what happened.

When the Bee dice came on the table, the person introducing the dice mentioned that there was a conference with many security professionals and there was (higher than usual) opportunity for advantage players to be on the tables. That was at least what I inferred from the whispered comment as the dice came in. The dice were swapped at 7:20pm on the only open table at the time (this was on a Monday night). I believe the shift change was after that, at 8:00pm. I stayed until 10:30pm and the Bee dice remained in play for the duration after that on that table and another table with no problems observed as I counted.

OK, I wrote an AutoBet file in the new WinCraps Pro format. I am not absolutely sure it is accurate. Here is is for critique:

If
Initializing script
Then
cs1.noodds = true :
bet $0 on cs2.odds
EndIf

"cs1.noodds is a boolean; if it's true, no odds bets can be in play"
"cs2.odds is the number of rolls when odds bets are possibly in play

"Make flat bets -- this is not really necessary"
If
Next roll is a comeout roll
Then
passline = 5
EndIf

If cs1.noodds = false
Then
Add 1 on cs2.odds
EndIf

"above is where we increment the number of rolls that can have odds bets in play"

If
A point is established on any(4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10)
Then
cs1.noodds = false
EndIf
"Once a point is established, all the subsequent rolls for this shooter can have odds bets in play"

If Seven out
Then
cs1.noodds = true
EndIf
"seven out brings a new shooter, and no odds bets can be in play until a point is established"

I ran this for 4,136,369 rolls, and cs2.odds was 3,406,053, which is 82.3% of the total number, leaving just 17.7% of rolls when no odds bets can be in play.

What do you think, AceHigh and 7craps (and anyone else who is good with AutoBet scripts)? Does this look right?
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Alan, just a quick look I see you only bet the pass and no come bets. Just testing the code??
That should be easy as 29.62% of all rolls are come out rolls.
I would do this a different way. Maybe it is just me.
If
Initializing script
Then
AutoTake Full Odds = true
EndIf
If
Next roll is a comeout roll
Then
Bet $1 on PassLine
EndIf
If
the dice roll And
PassLineOdds is greater than $0
Then
Add $1 to CheckStack1
EndIf

I am right at 70.372% at 100k rolls

Your code counts every roll after a point is made on the come out roll (just keep rolling the same number and you will see)
you need this added
If
A point is decided FOR any(4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10)
Then
cs1.noodds = true
EndIf

I just ran your code with the block added. It returns the 70% value.
It is sure slow. My 5.1b version did 100k rolls in the same time your code in Beta10 did 10k.
I will look into that later.
I have mentioned the slowness to Steen a few times and even converting some 5.1 .bet files to Beta10
turns the program into a snail and I have to copy/paste to notepad++ and copy/paste the code back into Beta10 to get it to speed back up.

Hope that helps out
But again, I really do not know if that is what you want to count.
Ahigh is counting pass/come bets and the times we make an odds bet with max come bets made.
Maybe you are doing something different like making come bets every roll, but that assumes every come bet makes it to the point round.
I have run these type of sims. I just can not locate the folder they are in after my spring clean.

Surely there must be a way to learn this language, what is the best way? Is it possible to program an autobet file that uses different probabilities for come out and point cycle? TIA!

Quote: Harley

This assumes the use of Fair balanced dice ...... However, too often in Vegas there is no "free bet' or Zero house edge since unbalanced percentage dice have increased the house advantage to make all the common payouts untrue .... just like 6:5 BlackJack did to it's game

I just want to point out that Harley's theory checks out that the casino gets an edge over odds bets when the dice get heavy on 6-1. However, any edge that is obtained is also exposure on the lay odds bets. It seems intuitive that you can exploit the edge on the lay odds bets, and there is much more potential for exposure on the don't pass bets in theory with the biases that Harley describes.

My simulations show that a sweet spot does exist where the exposure on the lay odds bets is cancelled out by the edge on the don't pass and don't come bets, but you can still have wins for a longer number of rolls than free odds on the pass line with max odds.

However, what I was surprised to find is how effective this bias is at reducing the total exposure the casino has to the average bets being placed on the table. It is the kind of thing that makes you want to go for it really big on the don't pass side after doing some face counts.

But you can't forget volatility. This is an absolute long-term effect that is completely overshadowed by volatility in the short term. You need a lot of samples to enjoy the spoils on the don't side that exist there. In fact, most of the time this exposure is there with heavy 6-1 faces, it is no bigger than flat betting the field for five bucks(!!!) And the field bet does not have that wild volatility. I think the field is where the true exposure lies, just make sure you've got a suspicion before bold betting the field.

Quote: DeMango

Surely there must be a way to learn this language, what is the best way? Is it possible to program an autobet file that uses different probabilities for come out and point cycle? TIA!

Yes, there is. You can create alternate probability files, save them and activate them in your autobet code. Here is an example:

If
Initializing script
Then
Name CheckStack1 as "Game number" :
Bet $1 on CheckStack1 :
Name CheckStack2 as "bets" :
Bet $0 on CheckStack2
EndIf

If
Next roll is a comeout roll
Then
Bet $10 on PassLine :
Activate Probability File "ii_ii_20.PRB" :
Add $1 to CheckStack2
EndIf

If
Next roll is NOT a comeout roll
And
A point is established on any(4, 10)
Then
Activate Probability File "I_II_20.prb" :
Bet $20 on PassLineOdds
EndIf

If
Next roll is NOT a comeout roll
And
A point is established on any(5, 6, 8, 9)
Then
Activate Probability File "II_III20.prb" :
Bet $20 on PassLineOdds
EndIf

If
(CheckStack2 is not less than $100
And
A point is decided AGAINST any(4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10))
Or
Bankroll is less than $30
Then
Add $1 to CheckStack1 :
Reset table(preserve CheckStacks) :
Bet $0 on CheckStack2
EndIf

If
CheckStack1 is equal to $20000
Then
Stop AutoRolling / HyperDrive
EndIf

The first alternate probability file is a "pro-sevens" set with both dice rotating about the 6/1 axis. It assume 20% of tosses for each die remain on axis; good luck with that! The second one, for point of 4 and 10, has one die rotating about the 6/1 axis, the other around the 4/3, so there are two sevens, two fours and two tens on axis. The one for the other points is 6/1, 5/2, with two sevens, 3 sixes/eights, 2 nines/fives.

As far as learning the language, the best way would be to get WinCraps Pro and read the Help. The new autobet engine is much more flexible than the one in 5.1; you can nest conditions to any depth, and the files are just text files, so you can share them more easily. WinCraps Pro can read the old autobet files and modify them for Pro; sometimes you have to make some additional changes, but this one was usable immediately. I am not sure when Pro will be available.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: 7craps

Alan, just a quick look I see you only bet the pass and no come bets. Just testing the code??

Actually, for this purpose the betting is totally irrelevant.

Quote: 7craps

That should be easy as 29.62% of all rolls are come out rolls.
I would do this a different way. Maybe it is just me.
If
Initializing script
Then
AutoTake Full Odds = true
EndIf
If
Next roll is a comeout roll
Then
Bet $1 on PassLine
EndIf
If
the dice roll And
PassLineOdds is greater than $0
Then
Add $1 to CheckStack1
EndIf

I am right at 70.372% at 100k rolls

Your code counts every roll after a point is made on the come out roll (just keep rolling the same number and you will see)
you need this added
If
A point is decided FOR any(4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10)
Then
cs1.noodds = true
EndIf

I just ran your code with the block added. It returns the 70% value.

Your code is not finding what AceHigh is talking about. Every roll for a shooter after the first point has been SET, i.e. the ON button is placed on a box number, must be counted, as I understand his posts, because until the shooter sevens out, there could be active come bets with odds. The shooter may set and make any number of points before sevening out, and every roll during that period is to be counted.

Quote: 7craps

It is sure slow. My 5.1b version did 100k rolls in the same time your code in Beta10 did 10k.
I will look into that later.
I have mentioned the slowness to Steen a few times and even converting some 5.1 .bet files to Beta10
turns the program into a snail and I have to copy/paste to notepad++ and copy/paste the code back into Beta10 to get it to speed back up.

I have Beta 10.10; it is much faster than prior versions. I also have a brand new computer with an i7 chip. It didn't take long to get over 4 million rolls.

Quote: 7craps

Hope that helps out
But again, I really do not know if that is what you want to count.
Ahigh is counting pass/come bets and the times we make an odds bet with max come bets made.
Maybe you are doing something different like making come bets every roll, but that assumes every come bet makes it to the point round.
I have run these type of sims. I just can not locate the folder they are in after my spring clean.

I'm not really sure what the point is that AceHigh is trying to make with this issue, but I am surprised that my code came up with only 17.7% of rolls during which there could be no odds bets in play (this is assuming, of course, that come odds are working on the pass comeout roll).
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Alan, you can call me Aaron. My name "Ahigh" is just short for "Aaron Hightower." I'm not a card player at all, so AceHigh is not me.

Anyway, I really just wanted to see some percentages of rolls that had the POTENTIAL for free bets to be active. After getting my numbers right, it looks like it goes from 29% with one point and down pretty quick. The last post I think those numbers are right.

The average number of odds bet active on a given roll is what I think should be used as a "weight" for the percentage, not the average amount of action.

That's sort of my point. When 30% of the time you are playing the game, for example, the house edge is 1.41%, it is unrealistic to me to consider that you can lower the edge of the game down to anything lower than 30% of 1.41% .. and if you do so, you're sort of calling the game less important when the edge is higher.

It's really a question about how the combined edge numbers are calculated compared to how they actually work to take a percentage of your working bets each roll.

IE: the cost to play the game is a percentage, and the average percentage should be weighted by time not by action.

You could also make the case that the way to improve the edge on craps is by combining it with AP on another game if this thinking is taken to an extreme.

My point is you have two games: one with odds bets available and one without. 30% of the time, you play with no odds, so don't forget that?

Much of this is a response to the Wizard for criticizing me (personally to my face) for not taking every single odds bet available to me.

I'm just saying there are two games in there, not one, really. And he's criticizing me for playing a game that even the best math guys in the world are forced to play 30% of the time or so on average! That's the harder game to beat, and I enjoy playing the harder game, not diluting the fact that you have to play this game by saying I can play another game to make it less bad.

Quote: Ahigh

Alan, you can call me Aaron. My name "Ahigh" is just short for "Aaron Hightower." I'm not a card player at all, so AceHigh is not me.

My apologies. I think I am confusing you with another poster, on this or another craps forum.

Quote: Ahigh

Anyway, I really just wanted to see some percentages of rolls that had the POTENTIAL for free bets to be active. After getting my numbers right, it looks like it goes from 29% with one point and down pretty quick. The last post I think those numbers are right.

The average number of odds bet active on a given roll is what I think should be used as a "weight" for the percentage, not the average amount of action.

That's sort of my point. When 30% of the time you are playing the game, for example, the house edge is 1.41%, it is unrealistic to me to consider that you can lower the edge of the game down to anything lower than 30% of 1.41% .. and if you do so, you're sort of calling the game less important when the edge is higher.

It's really a question about how the combined edge numbers are calculated compared to how they actually work to take a percentage of your working bets each roll.

Well, I have long argued that it is misleading to calculate the HA of a combined line/odds bet; after all, they are separate bets. You don't combine a pass bet with a place bet and calculate a combined edge. If one concentrates on the expected value, a lot of confusion is eliminated, like the whole issue of "do you count the bet amount of the Bar 12 in calculating the HA of the DP/DC?" The ev of 1980 pass bets is -28 units, and for 1980 DP bets it's -27 units; end of story. The ev of the line bet is -1.414% of the bet amount; the ev of any odds bets is zero; end of story, as far as edge is concerned. The odds bets represent free variance; their effect is on volatility, not expectation, and they need to be understood this way. They magnify the effects of good or bad luck.

To reduce the house edge to its minimum, it makes sense to me to put as much of my money as possible on odds bets, which, for me, means not making any come bets. If a casino allows 10X odds, I would just play the pass line and vary the odds multiple I take according to my bankroll. The last place I played in Reno, the Sands, had $5 minimum and 10X odds. The ev per decision is -$.0707, no matter how you calculate the edge. For 60 bets, the ev is -$4.24, standard deviation $419. With a $500 bankroll, you might bust around 15% of the time within a couple of hours, but you would be likely to win $250 about half the time, and if you stopped there you would have more winning sessions than losing ones. Of course, if you played this way 20,000 times, you would almost certainly have a net loss in the neighborhood of $100K, but if you play this way 100 times you might be ahead.

If you can't accept losing $500 in two hours, then don't start out with 10X odds; start out with whatever is comfortable, and increase the odds if you get ahead. This way, you're never paying more "tax" than 7 cents a decision.
Cheers, Aaron,
Alan Shank

I recently made a decision to bet the exact same way. Narrowing the target I am aiming for with a controlled throw is another reason.

Even though my numbers show lighter sevens and advantage on every single other box number, I am still not betting 32 across, iron cross, or any other strategy with a broader target to hit.

But your point is also very valid: when you still have free bets to take advantage of, taking more bets only helps you win or lose more quickly and does not help your chances of doing so.

I am going to add a parameter to my betting strategies to limit total exposure per roll and compare strategies. This might show graphically how you are more likely to win by taking free odds before spending the money on more come bets.

Thanks for your input!

Quote: goatcabin

but I am surprised that my code came up with only 17.7% of rolls during which there could be no odds bets in play (this is assuming, of course, that come odds are working on the pass comeout roll).
Cheers,
Alan Shank

(Now after reading exactly what Ahigh is trying to do with pass/Xmax come bets working
and gathering the # of bets and averages and such,
it makes it easier to understand his data from his sims.)

Alan, Your code and results look right. I am not surprised.

Your 17.7%, we can calculate that.

Say 1 million rolls
Each shooter avg rolls = ~ 8.526 (1671/196)
That makes 117,295.03 shooters with their first come out roll where no odds bet can be made.
Right there is 11.7295033% of rolls that the odds bet can not be made.

But there is a 1/3 chance, as you know, that the first roll of a new shooter's hand does not set a point,
another 39,098.3 rolls to add to our shooter number.
Plus (1/3)^2 chance the 2nd roll does not set a point Plus (1/3)^3 chance the 3rd roll does not set a point... and so on.
This is the sum of an infinite geometric series.
a/(1-r)
(we paid attention to this one in high school)
and both a and r = 1/3 (a = first term in the series and r = the ratio)
= (1/3) * (3/2) = that looks to be 1/2 (3/6)

So we can add 50% of 117,295 to 117,295 = 175,942.55 rolls out of 1 million that we can not make an odds bet
Looks like 17.5942549% to me

could have also done it this way
117,295 / (2/3) or 117,295 * (3/2)


I agree with you also the WinCraps Pro auto-bet engine is very slick and very versatile.
I still think most beginners will find 5.1b to be easier to grasp coding first
by just clicking on what they want until, if ever, they get the hang of it.
Will be nice to have both versions completed.
Thanks for the other info