Match Play with Craps Question
There are also Match Play coupons and they allow you to place even bets various places including the Craps table. Just reread WoO on that and he says the best bet to use a match play on is the don’t pass bet in craps.
So I will take that to the bank. However, one thing that I'm not sure about is using the free odds on the bet with the coupon. Last time I did that, but it occurs to me now that you may not want to. You have a bet with positive EV, and you dilute such with a bet that has zero edge. Overall you have decreased the PA? Yet otherwise you want to max on the free odds as a portion of your betting. The Wizard says nothing about it, which probably means the answer is too obvious for him to have thought of it. But I'm thinking folks here can confirm this. Please advise!
As to Odds on the PL or DP bets at Craps: The odds bet is zero house edge/zero customer edge. It merely raises the total money you have at risk and therefore dilutes the value of the coupon.
Those match play coupons are usually good at Red/Black at Roulette also. However, unless you intend to learn to play roulette, MiniBacc and Craps, I would suggest merely learning the various Coupon Bets and then walking away a winner or loser. Don't let the coupons sucker you into playing beyond your bankroll or beyond your game knowledge.
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/promotional-chips/
W/R/T your odds question... it doesn't change the value of the coupon at all. The coupon is worth a certain amount of money. What the odds do is reduce the PERCENTAGE of the value of the coupon vs. your overall bet. Your EV is the same but your swings will be higher.
But I would still take the free odds on my match play on a line bet -- because it's still a 0% house edge bet, and I am sure I am going to be making other bets in the casino that are worse than 0% later.
Quote: sodawaterrudeboy is incorrect. Don't pass is still better than pass with a match-play:
not incorrect.
$100 Passline bet with a $100 matchplay coupon
$200(49.29% )-$100(50.71%)=$47.87
$100 Dontpass bet with a $100 matchplay coupon
$200(47.93%)-$100(49.29%)=$46.57
got the P(W) and P(L) for each bet from the table on this page: https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/
Quote: rudeboyoinot incorrect.
$100 Passline bet with a $100 matchplay coupon
$200(49.29% )-$100(50.71%)=$47.87
$100 Dontpass bet with a $100 matchplay coupon
$200(47.93%)-$100(49.29%)=$46.57
got the P(W) and P(L) for each bet from the table on this page: https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/
They don't take away the coupon on the don't on come out 12, so your numbers are wrong.
Quote: sodawaterThey don't take away the coupon on the don't on come out 12, so your numbers are wrong.
okay.
$200(47.93%)-$100(49.29%)+$0(2.78%)=$46.57
W(P(rolling craps on comeout roll))-L(P(rolling 7 or 11))+W(P(rolling 4 or T then a 7))-L(P(rolling 4 or T then making the point))+W(P(rolling 5 or 9 then a 7))-L(P(rolling 5 or 9 then making the point))+W(P(rolling 6 or 8 then a 7))-L(P(rolling 6 or 8 then making the point))+T(P(rolling a 12 on the comeout roll))
$200(3/36)-$100(8/36)+$200(6/36)(6/9)-$100(6/36)(3/9)+$200(8/36)(6/10)-$100(8/36)(4/10)+$200(10/36)(6/11)-$100(10/36)(5/11)+$0(1/36)=$46.57
Quote: rudeboyoiokay.
$200(47.93%)-$100(49.29%)+$0(2.78%)=$46.57
I feel like this is still off, but don't have the time to confirm. sodawater, would you like to rebut?
Quote: sodawater
W/R/T your odds question... it doesn't change the value of the coupon at all. The coupon is worth a certain amount of money. What the odds do is reduce the PERCENTAGE of the value of the coupon vs. your overall bet. Your EV is the same but your swings will be higher.
But I would still take the free odds on my match play on a line bet -- because it's still a 0% house edge bet, and I am sure I am going to be making other bets in the casino that are worse than 0% later.
This is how I would think about it. Sure, the odds "dilute" the overall player edge as a percentage of your total action, but the odds don't change the absolute EV of the match play.
Just like free odds in the normal case don't actually "reduce" any house edge on the line bets. The house edge on the line bets is constant, the odds just reduce your overall edge relative to your total money in action.
Bet $100 and $100 match play on the Pass.
Bet $150 on the Don’t Pass.
Bet $5 on the 12.
Now let’s look at the net win for each possible dice outcome.
2, 3: Win the Don’t Pass (+150), but lose the Pass (-100) and 12 (-5) for a net win of $45.
7, 11: Win the Pass (+200), but lose the Don’t Pass (-150) and 12 (-5) for a net win of $45.
4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10: If the point is made, win the Pass (+200), but lose the Don’t Pass (-150). If the point is not made, win the Don’t Pass (+150), but lose the Pass (-100). Either way, lose the 12 (-5). In all cases, the net win is $45.
12: Win the 12 (+150), but lose the Pass (-100) for a net win of $50.
The overall expectation is slightly lower, as more money is subject to a house advantage, but the variance is significantly reduced. Good tradeoff in most cases.
Quote: darthvader
Bet $100 and $100 match play on the Pass.
Bet $150 on the Don’t Pass.
Bet $5 on the 12
This might be the way to go. I'm thinking ixnay on the odds. But thanks for all input.
win = 0.492987013,
lose = 0.507012987
The expected return of a match play is thus 0.492987013*2 + 0.507012987*-1 = 0.478961039.
$200(3/35)-$100(8/35)+$200(6/35)(6/9)-$100(6/35)(3/9)+$200(8/35)(6/10)-$100(8/35)(4/10)+$200(10/35)(6/11)-$100(10/35)(5/11)=$47.8961039
is this also correct? im assuming its off a little from rounding errors to only 4 decimal points.
$200(47.93%/(47.93%+49.29%))-$100(49.29%/(47.93%+49.29%))=$47.9016663
Exactly.Quote: rudeboyoii get that same number if i just change the denominator from 36 to 35 to ignore ties.
Using the "perfect 1980"
36*55 = 1980
The win prob for the DPass counting ties is 949/1980
removing the 55 (your 1) makes it 949/1925
$200*(949/1925) + -$100*(976/1925) = $47.8961039
another match
Quote: darthvaderUpon signing up for a new player’s card at the Valley Forge Casino, I was presented with a $100 match play coupon. The mathematical expected value of this coupon is approximately $48.50 if played alone on the Pass or Don’t Pass. However, the actual result from it will either be a $100 win or a $0 win, for a pretty large variance. Moreover, the playing of said coupon requires an additional $100 bet by the player, which might be outside of the budget of many players. There is, however, a hedge strategy that guarantees a net win.
Bet $100 and $100 match play on the Pass.
Bet $150 on the Don’t Pass.
Bet $5 on the 12.
Now let’s look at the net win for each possible dice outcome.
2, 3: Win the Don’t Pass (+150), but lose the Pass (-100) and 12 (-5) for a net win of $45.
7, 11: Win the Pass (+200), but lose the Don’t Pass (-150) and 12 (-5) for a net win of $45.
4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10: If the point is made, win the Pass (+200), but lose the Don’t Pass (-150). If the point is not made, win the Don’t Pass (+150), but lose the Pass (-100). Either way, lose the 12 (-5). In all cases, the net win is $45.
12: Win the 12 (+150), but lose the Pass (-100) for a net win of $50.
The overall expectation is slightly lower, as more money is subject to a house advantage, but the variance is significantly reduced. Good tradeoff in most cases.
Unfortunately most casinos explicitly prohibit the hedging of match play coupons.
Quote: jc2286Unfortunately most casinos explicitly prohibit the hedging of match play coupons.
You are probably right. I did not do the strategy I listed; I thought about it after the fact. However, if presented with the same situation, I would. Just have my wife use it while I make the other bets. Problem solved.
Quote: jc2286Unfortunately most casinos explicitly prohibit the hedging of match play coupons.
I don't even understand why a casino would do this. A match play coupon costs them a certain amount of money, and they do it as a promotion. If the player hedges to guarantee a profit, he is actually extracting less value from that coupon, in order to lower variance. But why should the casino be concerned about the player's lowered variance? The casino should be happy the match-play redeemer is making another negative bet to cash in the hedge.
It's similar to the old debate, how do you rate a player betting $50 on the pass and $50 on the don't every come-out roll.... $100 average, $50 average, or $0. I have seen casino execs say $0 or $50, which shows they do not understand the math behind their games at all. A player betting $50 do and $50 don't is in fact a $100 bettor and should be the casino's dream customer.
Quote: sodawaterI don't even understand why a casino would do this. A match play coupon costs them a certain amount of money, and they do it as a promotion. If the player hedges to guarantee a profit, he is actually extracting less value from that coupon, in order to lower variance. But why should the casino be concerned about the player's lowered variance? The casino should be happy the match-play redeemer is making another negative bet to cash in the hedge.
It's similar to the old debate, how do you rate a player betting $50 on the pass and $50 on the don't every come-out roll.... $100 average, $50 average, or $0. I have seen casino execs say $0 or $50, which shows they do not understand the math behind their games at all. A player betting $50 do and $50 don't is in fact a $100 bettor and should be the casino's dream customer.
You are absolutely right. Every bet has a house advantage, regardless of which player makes them. However, my gut tells me that a single player making the bets to guarantee a profit would be seen as violating the "spirit" of the match play coupon. Just because they run a table doesn't mean that they understand the math.
Quote: sodawaterI don't even understand why a casino would do this. A match play coupon costs them a certain amount of money, and they do it as a promotion. If the player hedges to guarantee a profit, he is actually extracting less value from that coupon, in order to lower variance. But why should the casino be concerned about the player's lowered variance? The casino should be happy the match-play redeemer is making another negative bet to cash in the hedge.
It's similar to the old debate, how do you rate a player betting $50 on the pass and $50 on the don't every come-out roll.... $100 average, $50 average, or $0. I have seen casino execs say $0 or $50, which shows they do not understand the math behind their games at all. A player betting $50 do and $50 don't is in fact a $100 bettor and should be the casino's dream customer.
I agree completely. And at my casino, they won't let you hedge match plays or promo chips, but would rate you at the full $100 for your $50 pass $50 don't scenario. Complete contradiction in logic.
Quote: jc2286I agree completely. And at my casino, they won't let you hedge match plays or promo chips, but would rate you at the full $100 for your $50 pass $50 don't scenario. Complete contradiction in logic.
The philosophy of the match play coupon has absolutely nothing to do with math, but with marketing. Its purpose is to expose a player to a game they might not have played otherwise or play at a bet level they wouldn't otherwise do. The hope, of course, is that there is continuation by the player after the matchplay.
Quote: darthvaderThe philosophy of the match play coupon has absolutely nothing to do with math, but with marketing. Its purpose is to expose a player to a game they might not have played otherwise or play at a bet level they wouldn't otherwise do. The hope, of course, is that there is continuation by the player after the matchplay.
That actually makes sense.
Quote: darthvaderThe philosophy of the match play coupon has absolutely nothing to do with math, but with marketing. Its purpose is to expose a player to a game they might not have played otherwise or play at a bet level they wouldn't otherwise do. The hope, of course, is that there is continuation by the player after the matchplay.
That really doesn't make sense to me. In many casinos, you might get $200 of match play, and you can choose the denomination of the coupons! I always choose the smallest denomination.
I think match plays are more of an effort to get the player to come into the house a certain day. I don't think bet level is really a factor. I have never heard of anyone betting more than normal on a match play -- simply because, how would they earn them? Even if a casino didnt allow you to choose lower denominations, a $25 bettor is not usually going to qualify for $100 coupons.
Quote: sodawaterI don't think bet level is really a factor. I have never heard of anyone betting more than normal on a match play -- simply because, how would they earn them? Even if a casino didnt allow you to choose lower denominations, a $25 bettor is not usually going to qualify for $100 coupons.
+1
Quote: sodawaterI think match plays are more of an effort to get the player to come into the house a certain day. I don't think bet level is really a factor. I have never heard of anyone betting more than normal on a match play -- simply because, how would they earn them? Even if a casino didnt allow you to choose lower denominations, a $25 bettor is not usually going to qualify for $100 coupons.
I just got five $40 free bet coupons yesterday from Lucky Club casino. The max bet on their tables is $500. I'm pretty sure I didn't make any $500 bets over there, and I've only been there twice and played for a total of about 2 hours at most.
Quote: AhighI don't know but I may just liquidate them for $80. I'll give you more info. I like digging into the details of coupons, so I'm more than happy to look into the details of an anomaly like this. But they definitely aren't scared of me at the lucky club! LOL!!!
Technically the value is around $100 on them...I used to get "promo" chips (rather than free slot play) and they'd always give me TWICE as much in chips...because they know people are just going to liquidate them for half-price (red/black, do/dont)
Quote: sodawaterIt's similar to the old debate, how do you rate a player betting $50 on the pass and $50 on the don't every come-out roll.... $100 average, $50 average, or $0. I have seen casino execs say $0 or $50, which shows they do not understand the math behind their games at all. A player betting $50 do and $50 don't is in fact a $100 bettor and should be the casino's dream customer.
For a long time, a partner and I did something similar, and were both fully rated ($5 flat with 3/4/5 = $25 rating; we'd play for four hours each session)
After about a year of us playing NOTHING but that way, they quit comping us AT ALL at the table...even if we played differently!
There's a reason they're working in the casino...and not playing there...
Quote: AhighI just got five $40 free bet coupons yesterday from Lucky Club casino. The max bet on their tables is $500. I'm pretty sure I didn't make any $500 bets over there, and I've only been there twice and played for a total of about 2 hours at most.
