nice profit from short rolls
February 16th, 2013 at 7:17:43 AM
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Played last night for tune up for this weekends trip.
As I have indicated i am a 6 & 8 player. My goal is to try to get 3 or more 6 & 8 's in combination on a roll, then i make money,
long rolls are great, but you cant count on that.
Last night was nice, i started with an a pt7 8, 8, 10, 4, 17 22
I started with hardway set, and when it appeared i was on axis 50% i switched to 3v
The key to dice control is bet on yourself, be careful to not lose the money on others that you have made on
your rolls. That is hard because craps is a community game. I try hard not to play on a table with
more than 4 people on it. You get the dice back quicker, and you have to bet on others less.
Betting less does not mean disrespect. I understand some so called dice controllers like to use different words
to lable a random thrower. I dont do that , every one at the table has as much right to have fun and enjoy
the game as the next. Having fun and supporting others at the table is a big part of craps. I just am very
careful with betting the first 5 rolls..
Dicersitter
As I have indicated i am a 6 & 8 player. My goal is to try to get 3 or more 6 & 8 's in combination on a roll, then i make money,
long rolls are great, but you cant count on that.
Last night was nice, i started with an a pt7 8, 8, 10, 4, 17 22
I started with hardway set, and when it appeared i was on axis 50% i switched to 3v
The key to dice control is bet on yourself, be careful to not lose the money on others that you have made on
your rolls. That is hard because craps is a community game. I try hard not to play on a table with
more than 4 people on it. You get the dice back quicker, and you have to bet on others less.
Betting less does not mean disrespect. I understand some so called dice controllers like to use different words
to lable a random thrower. I dont do that , every one at the table has as much right to have fun and enjoy
the game as the next. Having fun and supporting others at the table is a big part of craps. I just am very
careful with betting the first 5 rolls..
Dicersitter
February 16th, 2013 at 7:55:35 AM
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what gets me when I play the 6&8s is that short rolls can hurt u fast and it seems hard to fight back after 5 or 6 short rolls in a row. I've gotten beat up fast playing the 6&8s.
February 16th, 2013 at 9:11:33 AM
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I agree you can profit from short rolls...
I understand why some people put up just a 6&8 when they are in a grind, but i don't do it... If you have already already made the decision not to bet more than 5 rolls, why not increase your chances of winning and cover more place bets? Now some would say it leaves you open to the PSO, and that's true. But the PSO would be unavoidable in both scenarios. If it comes it comes.. But there's no point in prolonging your play in fear of the PSO because that same fear of losing quick will stop you from winning fast and getting up on a cold table... just my humble opinion.
I understand why some people put up just a 6&8 when they are in a grind, but i don't do it... If you have already already made the decision not to bet more than 5 rolls, why not increase your chances of winning and cover more place bets? Now some would say it leaves you open to the PSO, and that's true. But the PSO would be unavoidable in both scenarios. If it comes it comes.. But there's no point in prolonging your play in fear of the PSO because that same fear of losing quick will stop you from winning fast and getting up on a cold table... just my humble opinion.
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter"
-Mark Walberg
pain and Gain
February 16th, 2013 at 11:03:48 AM
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I never know what 'nice profit' means. I even put
it in the pet peeves thread. Is a nice profit $5 or
$500.. Nice profit is what people say when they
don't want to use real numbers.
it in the pet peeves thread. Is a nice profit $5 or
$500.. Nice profit is what people say when they
don't want to use real numbers.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
February 16th, 2013 at 11:17:58 AM
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Quote: EvenBobI never know what 'nice profit' means. I even put
it in the pet peeves thread. Is a nice profit $5 or
$500.. Nice profit is what people say when they
don't want to use real numbers.
That's true.. Everyone has their own opinion of a nice profit.. Here is mine
If you buy in with 2000 and win 1000-1800 you did well.. So 50-80%... Honestly anything you leave with is winning IMO... I don't really play on 5 dollar tables, so I guess if a guy buys in for 250 he SHOULD take a 125-250 profit and run for the hills..
"there's always a guy at the table that can tell you about the big roll that happened a hour ago... But when you look at his chips, the tale is the exact opposite"
-winners run
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter"
-Mark Walberg
pain and Gain
February 16th, 2013 at 2:36:49 PM
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I think it might be time for me to just never open a thread in the craps forum again. So sick of this foolishness.
February 16th, 2013 at 3:08:00 PM
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Aw, come on. Idiots have a right to join in at any time. I usually do.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
February 16th, 2013 at 3:12:58 PM
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WTF ? Just got a PM from Mission 146 putting me on suspension for call forum members idiots. He said such comments were slanderous. I replied back that truth would be my defense in any slander suit. So he has just put me on probation instead.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
February 16th, 2013 at 3:37:54 PM
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Everyone is entitled to opinion...My method and post may be simple, but my play is far from it.. just throwing another perspective out into the world..
"a winning one, might I add"
I've met alot of 'old' guys on the tables, who in their regular lives are considered very intelligent individuals.. But when they get in the table, all that logic falls right out of their pockets an over to the buffet for a comp meal... Im a young guy, an outlier, open to discussion. If my perspective seem flawed to you, please feel free comment. Do you have any suggestions for a nice profit for short rolls or battling a cold table?
"a winning one, might I add"
I've met alot of 'old' guys on the tables, who in their regular lives are considered very intelligent individuals.. But when they get in the table, all that logic falls right out of their pockets an over to the buffet for a comp meal... Im a young guy, an outlier, open to discussion. If my perspective seem flawed to you, please feel free comment. Do you have any suggestions for a nice profit for short rolls or battling a cold table?
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter"
-Mark Walberg
pain and Gain
February 16th, 2013 at 4:13:29 PM
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I think they were more likely referring to the superstitiousness of craps players in general and probably more specifically dice setters. One should never take offence at anyone's opinion.
February 16th, 2013 at 4:57:12 PM
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Quote: TheWolf713Do you have any suggestions for a nice profit for short rolls or battling a cold table?
There is no such thing as a cold table or aiming for short rolls. Every single roll is independent and all totals are equally likely according to their standard probabilities at all times. So the only recommendation for craps is -- play whatever way entertains you most.
February 16th, 2013 at 8:21:22 PM
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I'm sorry but I don't understand the concept of profiting from "short rolls." I thought the objective was to have as long a roll as possible, and to roll many numbers and points as possible?
Are you saying that you will bet only a limited number of rolls and then call your bets off or take them down because you anticipate a 7-out? I know many players who do that believing that the average shooter will throw the dice six or seven times before the devil comes.
Are you saying that you will bet only a limited number of rolls and then call your bets off or take them down because you anticipate a 7-out? I know many players who do that believing that the average shooter will throw the dice six or seven times before the devil comes.
February 16th, 2013 at 9:47:25 PM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonI'm sorry but I don't understand the concept of profiting from "short rolls." I thought the objective was to have as long a roll as possible, and to roll many numbers and points as possible?
Are you saying that you will bet only a limited number of rolls and then call your bets off or take them down because you anticipate a 7-out? I know many players who do that believing that the average shooter will throw the dice six or seven times before the devil comes.
Yes, thats pretty much what im saying in a nut shell.. I know the concept is not new, but its a small portion of the approach i take at certain moments.. I wouldnt stand at a table and use it for an entire session... I have a more fluid approach to the table..
I do agree that in optimal conditions, the objective is to have long rolls... But when they don't come as frequent.. I don't see anything wrong with catching a few place bets and coming down... It might not be as popular of an idea. Some veteran players even disagree with.. I see you guys giving out info. Im Just trying to give another point of view
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter"
-Mark Walberg
pain and Gain
February 18th, 2013 at 8:29:02 AM
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wolf
I would assume your trying to be silly, but on the chance that you are serious i will answer this.
I nice profit is different for everyone and there is nothing wrong with that. For me, i am happy with any win.
If i buy in for $400, and leave with $500 i am happy, if i leave with $1200 i am happy. If a guy buys in for $100
and leaves with two hundred.
I play with guys that can start with any where between $180-$600 on the 6 & 8. That is not me. I am not
here to make lots of money or to act smart, i have enough to live on the balance of my life, i just want to enjoy craps.
In addition having the money does not mean you have the mental ability to gamble at those levels... i dont. now i
have had many hands where the bets get large, but that is not a starting bet.
MY approach is simple, i know i have an advantage on the 6 & 8, i know i will throw more of them than average, so
if the come out is an 8 i bet $60 on it and $60 on the 6.. if i hit three on that roll i have made money. Now you
have short rolls and make nothing or even lose $120, but then in exchange you have a 20-25 with 7-8 of them and do
well.
This works for me
dicesitter.
I would assume your trying to be silly, but on the chance that you are serious i will answer this.
I nice profit is different for everyone and there is nothing wrong with that. For me, i am happy with any win.
If i buy in for $400, and leave with $500 i am happy, if i leave with $1200 i am happy. If a guy buys in for $100
and leaves with two hundred.
I play with guys that can start with any where between $180-$600 on the 6 & 8. That is not me. I am not
here to make lots of money or to act smart, i have enough to live on the balance of my life, i just want to enjoy craps.
In addition having the money does not mean you have the mental ability to gamble at those levels... i dont. now i
have had many hands where the bets get large, but that is not a starting bet.
MY approach is simple, i know i have an advantage on the 6 & 8, i know i will throw more of them than average, so
if the come out is an 8 i bet $60 on it and $60 on the 6.. if i hit three on that roll i have made money. Now you
have short rolls and make nothing or even lose $120, but then in exchange you have a 20-25 with 7-8 of them and do
well.
This works for me
dicesitter.
February 18th, 2013 at 11:34:26 AM
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" i know i have an advantage on the 6 & 8, i know i will throw more of them than average," ROFLMAO
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
February 18th, 2013 at 11:42:53 AM
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Quote:i know i have an advantage on the 6 & 8, i know i will throw more of them than average.
For my 2412 rolls I have 359 6's, 361 7's, and 329 8's.
So my 6 to 7 ratio is 0.9944% and my 8 to 7 ratio is 0.911%.
Random is 83.33%.
Advantage requires 85.715% or higher.
What are your numbers?
Even with 2000+ samples, I'm not sure yet. How many samples do you have to already be in the know?
So far, it appears that the 5 is the most dangerous bet for me.
aahigh.com
February 18th, 2013 at 12:50:35 PM
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As a frame of reference, here is 200,000 randomly generated rolls.
You can see that at least one of them was still coming out ahead pretty late into it, but they all lose eventually.
All of these are doing $25 bets or $30 (just for 6 and 8) bets to be fair to the four and ten here in Vegas which are great bets if you bet enough.
The four and ten really are the winners (on average anyway!) just by the numbers at these bet amounts, but more volatility.
Even at 200,000 rolls, it's hard to see the edge-line except when the edge is big enough to overshadow the volatility.
But wow, you guys betting the five and nine really have a lot more confidence in your rolls than I do.
I think I might even be afraid to bet odds on the five after looking at my charts.
And when you think you have an advantage on the 6 or the 8, you have to realize random flat betting the 6 or the 8 for 40,000 rolls can win with random data! IE: the edge is pretty low...
You can see that at least one of them was still coming out ahead pretty late into it, but they all lose eventually.
All of these are doing $25 bets or $30 (just for 6 and 8) bets to be fair to the four and ten here in Vegas which are great bets if you bet enough.
The four and ten really are the winners (on average anyway!) just by the numbers at these bet amounts, but more volatility.
Even at 200,000 rolls, it's hard to see the edge-line except when the edge is big enough to overshadow the volatility.
But wow, you guys betting the five and nine really have a lot more confidence in your rolls than I do.
I think I might even be afraid to bet odds on the five after looking at my charts.
And when you think you have an advantage on the 6 or the 8, you have to realize random flat betting the 6 or the 8 for 40,000 rolls can win with random data! IE: the edge is pretty low...
aahigh.com
February 18th, 2013 at 2:28:12 PM
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Quote: EvenBobNice profit is what people say when they
don't want to use real numbers.
haha, isnt that the truth.... Hod' u do this week... made a nice profit....Then my mind starts to wonder the truth...
February 18th, 2013 at 2:42:55 PM
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That graph really shows you how bad the 5 and 9 are to other bets.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
February 18th, 2013 at 3:04:37 PM
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Yeah! This was why one of the first uses of my software was to ask the across betters "uhm why add the 5 and 9 to your bet strategy?"
Once you get to the IronCross (adding in a field bet) it's even harder to justify, but the 5 and 9 place bets are just killers.
If you think of the edge as a hurdle and theoretical advantage play as the ability to jump, why make your hurdles more than twice as high? Even if you were jumping three times as high as the first hurdle, success means cutting your profit in half. If you were barely clearing the hurdle (more likely) you just FAIL.
That's my question! When the answer basically boils down to we don't think about edges, we think about what we can roll, I feel like those people are handicapped by lack of software to tell you how to look at your roll data and suggest a set to use from your roll data.
I can now do that from actual roll outcomes, or from face histograms from your throws that generate random data from your face histograms, and then look at how to change your set from the randomly generated data with your face histograms.
For all of this to work, you still have to have loads and loads of data.
I may look at reducing the amount of data used to come up with bias by looking at the image of the landing and only accepting outcomes that had a sufficiently controlled landing based on the theory that you have to have good control up until the point of landing in order to even hope to have a bias. IE: why look at data for rolls that were performed less than optimally? It just creates noise in your potential signal when you are looking for patterns in a well-delivered throw.
Once you get to the IronCross (adding in a field bet) it's even harder to justify, but the 5 and 9 place bets are just killers.
If you think of the edge as a hurdle and theoretical advantage play as the ability to jump, why make your hurdles more than twice as high? Even if you were jumping three times as high as the first hurdle, success means cutting your profit in half. If you were barely clearing the hurdle (more likely) you just FAIL.
That's my question! When the answer basically boils down to we don't think about edges, we think about what we can roll, I feel like those people are handicapped by lack of software to tell you how to look at your roll data and suggest a set to use from your roll data.
I can now do that from actual roll outcomes, or from face histograms from your throws that generate random data from your face histograms, and then look at how to change your set from the randomly generated data with your face histograms.
For all of this to work, you still have to have loads and loads of data.
I may look at reducing the amount of data used to come up with bias by looking at the image of the landing and only accepting outcomes that had a sufficiently controlled landing based on the theory that you have to have good control up until the point of landing in order to even hope to have a bias. IE: why look at data for rolls that were performed less than optimally? It just creates noise in your potential signal when you are looking for patterns in a well-delivered throw.
aahigh.com
February 18th, 2013 at 3:23:44 PM
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Quote: dicesitterwolf
This works for me
dicesitter.
If it works for you, that is all that matters.. I can respect that...
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter"
-Mark Walberg
pain and Gain
February 18th, 2013 at 6:25:38 PM
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well as i indicated 2 weeks ago i would start a new analysis and record it on smart craps.
to date i have 350 rolls on the new count, i 68 6's and 75 8's i am not sure what per centage this is
but i would expect on 350 rolls you would expect about 48.6 each of the 6 & 8. 5 out of every 36 rolls. My total of
the 6 & 8 so far is high, and not normal
so i would expect the number of 6 & 8 to decrease back to about 30-33%.
I just went to my table for kicks ang giggles and threw 10 warm ups and then 25 rolls with the 3-v
and i had 9 6 & 8's in combination.... normal percentages would expect 6.9 of them.
I just cant explain it more than that, When i play i keep track of my rolls and the number of 6 & 8's
if i can get about 30-33% 6 & 8's i seem to do ok.
Dicesitter
to date i have 350 rolls on the new count, i 68 6's and 75 8's i am not sure what per centage this is
but i would expect on 350 rolls you would expect about 48.6 each of the 6 & 8. 5 out of every 36 rolls. My total of
the 6 & 8 so far is high, and not normal
so i would expect the number of 6 & 8 to decrease back to about 30-33%.
I just went to my table for kicks ang giggles and threw 10 warm ups and then 25 rolls with the 3-v
and i had 9 6 & 8's in combination.... normal percentages would expect 6.9 of them.
I just cant explain it more than that, When i play i keep track of my rolls and the number of 6 & 8's
if i can get about 30-33% 6 & 8's i seem to do ok.
Dicesitter
February 18th, 2013 at 7:08:55 PM
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I can throw more 7's than you can throw 8's. Just saying.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
February 18th, 2013 at 9:53:42 PM
permalink
Your percentage of 6s & 8s is simply (68+75)/350 = 40.86%Quote: dicesitterto date i have 350 rolls on the new count, i 68 6's and 75 8's i am not sure what per centage this is
but i would expect on 350 rolls you would expect about 48.6 each of the 6 & 8. 5 out of every 36 rolls. My total of
the 6 & 8 so far is high, and not normal
so i would expect the number of 6 & 8 to decrease back to about 30-33%.
expected would be 10/36 = 27.78%
6 or 8 = 5/36 = 13.89% and you are 68/350 and 75/350
But now the probability of rolling 143 6&8s or more in 350 rolls is about 1 in 10,522,148
mean = 97.222
Difference = 45.78
SD = 8.3795
# of SDs from the mean = 5.46 (5.3 is 1 in 10,000,000)
and you did this with new casino dice, casino layout, padding, proper surface, casino distance from wall.
As close to casino conditions as possible.
Hey, 1 in 10 million. Are your sure?
Time to get a syndicate together, get the funds, hit Caesars Palace and place the 6&8 for 50k and you roll the dice.
We found our DI.
The others can go swimming in a lake.
Your edge without knowing your SRR, who cares,
+++EV to the bank.
Others have already pointed this out too.
You do not even have to bet your own money.
You get a cut of the winnings or just a fee if you like.
Just give us 1 in 1 million (139 6s & 8s in 350 rolls, should be a snap)
we rent the table, just you shooting and the team betting.
We found our DI.
The others can go swimming in a lake.
Your edge without knowing your SRR, who cares,
+++EV to the bank.
Others have already pointed this out too.
You do not even have to bet your own money.
You get a cut of the winnings or just a fee if you like.
we do not care about 25 rolls. we do care how many times they win before a 7 rolls. But we want 350 rolls.Quote: dicesitterI just went to my table for kicks ang giggles and threw 10 warm ups and then 25 rolls with the 3-v
and i had 9 6 & 8's in combination.... normal percentages would expect 6.9 of them.
Just give us 1 in 1 million (139 6s & 8s in 350 rolls, should be a snap)
we rent the table, just you shooting and the team betting.
sweet
what? time to take out the trash!
OK
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
February 18th, 2013 at 10:18:21 PM
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i agree completely, that is not normal. but there it is..... i think tonights couple of rolls is about normal.
I have been doing this a long time, and if i have enough sense to play on a table that fits my toss
i know i get 30-33 %.
I have to admit here that there are times i get a brain fart and think i can beat any table, and i cant...i cant
beat a 16 foot table, i cant beat a very bouncy table, but i dont always learn a lesson very well.
Dicesitter
I have been doing this a long time, and if i have enough sense to play on a table that fits my toss
i know i get 30-33 %.
I have to admit here that there are times i get a brain fart and think i can beat any table, and i cant...i cant
beat a 16 foot table, i cant beat a very bouncy table, but i dont always learn a lesson very well.
Dicesitter
February 18th, 2013 at 10:34:40 PM
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Excellent
Last piece to the puzzle is the number of 7s you rolled in those 350.
Are you doing the Pro tests?
If yes, we do not need to know how many 7 winners you rolled.
We can go on auto pilot from there
Last piece to the puzzle is the number of 7s you rolled in those 350.
Are you doing the Pro tests?
If yes, we do not need to know how many 7 winners you rolled.
We can go on auto pilot from there
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
February 19th, 2013 at 12:19:41 AM
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Quote: 7crapsAre you doing the Pro tests?
Buzzard is doing all the Protests here! [g]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
February 19th, 2013 at 12:24:14 AM
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Quote: TheWolf713I don't see anything wrong with catching a few place bets and coming down...
There is NOTHING wrong with this strategy. Players do it all the time. And since its a negative expectation game it makes perfect sense to limit your liability. I can't fault you for this. And ALL of us at one time, or many times, have wished we called off our bets one roll sooner.
February 19th, 2013 at 12:31:39 AM
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Quote: Ahighbut the 5 and 9 place bets are just killers.
I have to tell this story:
About ten years ago Caesars had a promotion and you got a $500 promo chip that could be used for any kind of bet -- even money, odds, hardways, field, horn, it didnt matter. It was like a real $500 chip.
At the time I was a $10 player, so I was holding on to my $500 chip for the "right moment." The seemingly "right moment came" when a shooter made two passes -- first the 4, then the 10, and then on the third come-out he rolled a 6.
Caesars allows put bets, so I added $90 to my $10 passline bet, and used the $500 promo chip as full odds. And then the shooter went on a tear. An absolute tear, hitting number after number. It went something like this:
4, 5, 4, 5, 4, 5, 4, 5, 8, 5, 8, 5, 5, 5, 5. And then he sevened out.
February 19th, 2013 at 7:07:16 AM
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that sounds like a hoot,
nothing better than craps
Dicesitter
nothing better than craps
Dicesitter
February 19th, 2013 at 7:14:58 AM
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Is this because dice have memories ? " so i would expect the number of 6 & 8 to decrease back to about 30-33%."
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
February 19th, 2013 at 11:37:47 AM
permalink
Quote: AlanMendelsonI have to tell this story:
About ten years ago Caesars had a promotion and you got a $500 promo chip that could be used for any kind of bet -- even money, odds, hardways, field, horn, it didnt matter. It was like a real $500 chip.
At the time I was a $10 player, so I was holding on to my $500 chip for the "right moment." The seemingly "right moment came" when a shooter made two passes -- first the 4, then the 10, and then on the third come-out he rolled a 6.
Caesars allows put bets, so I added $90 to my $10 passline bet, and used the $500 promo chip as full odds. And then the shooter went on a tear. An absolute tear, hitting number after number. It went something like this:
4, 5, 4, 5, 4, 5, 4, 5, 8, 5, 8, 5, 5, 5, 5. And then he sevened out.
Lol I swear I've seen something similar to this!!!
For the most part, statistical data gives am overview of past occurrences and predicts future occurrences as well... But in the heat of actual play.. All of that data literally goes out the window. My mentor and some of the successful players that I've encountered all say "don't get caught in a system, or in the numbers." I've seen so many players stand around, and because they've done a calculation that tells them "not to bet the 4&10 on the third player after a YO (or something silly like this)" they miss out on a monster roll..
From ahigh's data I can totally understand why He feels that placing the 5 & 9 are not as profitable for him based on what numbers he is calculating to hit from his throw... Much respect to that... It's just that in live play, those results might skew a players judgement and cause him to miss out on money based on a THEORY and not what's ACTUALLY on the table..this is just my opinion, of course.
My quote of the day
"Most people would agree you should find your advantage, bet your advantage, and get out... I believe a craps player's biggest advantage is time exsposure..."
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter"
-Mark Walberg
pain and Gain
February 19th, 2013 at 12:29:07 PM
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Sure they do. They just do not advertise the fact.Quote: BuzzardIs this because dice have memories ? " so i would expect the number of 6 & 8 to decrease back to about 30-33%."
The theoritical probability of rolling a 6 or an 8 is exactly 10/36 or as a percentage 27.78%
But we know there is variance over any number of rolls.
For 350 rolls the standard deviation of 10/36 (the spread around the 27.78%) is easy to calculate.
math left to the reader
The formula is: 1unitSD / square root of N (the number of trials)
sqrt(p*q) = 1unitSD = 0.447903208
sqrt (350) = 18.70828693
0.447903208 / 18.70828693 = 0.023941434 * 100 = 2.3941434%
So for 350 rolls, one has a 99.73% chance(9973 out of 10,000)
that between
34.9602% to 20.5953% of those 350 rolls can be 6s & 8s. Just by random chance. Cool!
(DS claims his 6&8 prob to be 30-33%,
but we do not know over what sample size that is and
if he is actually rolling the dice with true casino conditions, including near new dice)
or by the numbers
122.3607274 to 72.08371701
and there is still chances that the actural number of 6s and 8s rolled could be outside that range.
But those chances quickly get very high against it the further we get away from them either higher or lower.
DS also knows the Law of Large Numbers.
It would only take a few more sets of 350 dice rolls, rolling at 30% - higher than expectation - to lower that
40.857% (over 5.3sd difference or 1 in 10million) down to his 30-33% range.
By his 3rd set,still rolling 105 6s&8s instead of the average of 97, his Place6,8% is in the 33% area.
By 3850 rolls, it is in the 30% range even as the actual number of 6s&8s rolled keeps increasing over expectation.
(the last column Actual-EV)
This easily shows that that actual number of 6s&8s rolled do not have to be less than average or even decreasing
in order for the percentages or ratios to be converging to the theoretical values.
(In this case 27.78% or the DI claim of 30% to 33%.
Nice player edge right there
| set# | Rolls | Place6,8 Freq | Other | total rolls | total 68s | run EV | 6,8% | Actual-EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 350 | 143 | 207 | 350 | 143 | 97.22 | 40.86% | 45.78 |
| 2 | 350 | 105 | 245 | 700 | 248 | 194.44 | 35.43% | 53.56 |
| 3 | 350 | 105 | 245 | 1050 | 353 | 291.67 | 33.62% | 61.33 |
| 4 | 350 | 105 | 245 | 1400 | 458 | 388.89 | 32.71% | 69.11 |
| 5 | 350 | 105 | 245 | 1750 | 563 | 486.11 | 32.17% | 76.89 |
| 6 | 350 | 105 | 245 | 2100 | 668 | 583.33 | 31.81% | 84.67 |
| 7 | 350 | 105 | 245 | 2450 | 773 | 680.56 | 31.55% | 92.44 |
| 8 | 350 | 105 | 245 | 2800 | 878 | 777.78 | 31.36% | 100.22 |
| 9 | 350 | 105 | 245 | 3150 | 983 | 875.00 | 31.21% | 108.00 |
| 10 | 350 | 105 | 245 | 3500 | 1088 | 972.22 | 31.09% | 115.78 |
| 11 | 350 | 105 | 245 | 3850 | 1193 | 1,069.44 | 30.99% | 123.56 |
| 12 | 350 | 105 | 245 | 4200 | 1298 | 1,166.67 | 30.90% | 131.33 |
no test follows
no homework
play time!
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
February 19th, 2013 at 12:34:43 PM
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Quote: BuzzardIs this because dice have memories ? " so i would expect the number of 6 & 8 to decrease back to about 30-33%."
Nope.
If -you (a random roller)- have rolled 60 times, and hit 15 7's, your percentage is 25%. If you go to 120 rolls, you would expect 10 more 7's. So over 120 rolls, you'd now expect around 21% of the rolls to be 7, KNOWING the results of the first 60.
It's regression to the mean, or the law of large numbers.
Even if you did have a bias on the dice, if you shot higher than you'd expect with your bias, you'd expect once you add the next period for the total percentage- to be lower overall. Not that the numbers for the next period -alone- would be different.
Nothing controversial in this statement on the Math.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
