hardway pressure

I'm working on tweaking my system to involve some pressure from and on the hardways. It seems like a good play when you hit your place/field/pl to take some of that and press the hardways. Its a tiny investment that could double ur winnings if they hit.
Thoughts?

Quote: eyerollsixes

I'm working on tweaking my system to involve some pressure from and on the hardways. It seems like a good play when you hit your place/field/pl to take some of that and press the hardways. Its a tiny investment that could double ur winnings if they hit.
Thoughts?

Most people who play hardways are looking to turn a small amount into 100x, 64x, 1000x, 512x. If the bet were zero edge it would be 121x, 81x, 1331x, 729x.

The difference is 331/1331 = 24.8% (IE: compounded edge is they keep a fourth of what you should have been paid) or 217/729 = 29.7% on the four or ten.

The edge per roll on the hardways and the field bets are 2.78%.

If you want to win a larger percentage of your money, consider starting with $25 instead of $1 and shoot for the table limit instead of $1,000 by buying the four or buying the ten.

$25,
$75, 1/75 = 1.33%
$225, 4/225 = 1.78%
$675, 15/675 = 2.22%
$2025, 48/2025 = 2.37%
$6075, 149/6075 = 2.45%
$18225, 452/18225 = 2.48%

If you play often enough, you will be better off attempting to win much more than you bet by starting with a green chip. Your failed attempts get more expensive when you press all the way like this by throwing in the vig, but if you just press as high as you can go with you pay and keep everything but green chips, the compounded edge is still small.

Charting out pressing all the way on a four or a ten lasts longer than most strategies I have looked at on my simulations (hundreds of thousands of rolls) but it is still subject to massive drawdowns if you have a lot of sevens. When this system works, though, you get paid BIG TIME and it makes up for those losses. It's just a long term strategy where you draw down a lot of money waiting for the big win to make up for it.

But it's that low compounded edge that keeps this strategy in business.

Hardways lose pretty fast just looking at the strategy alone. Field is the same on a per roll basis.

I hope this is helpful and I hope you decide to go for it and win big!

Good luck!

Do u have to buy both the 4&10 or just one or the other?

The excitment of hitting the hardways with the rest of the table draws me to wanna play them a little bit. Maybe I can buy the 4, and play the hard 6&8 and add to the 4 when I hit the hardways.

Part of the fun of craps is the excitement and talking at the table between players, most casinos I play at the hardways are a very popular play. I want in on it and I'm sure there are people here who love playing the hardways too. For a small price to play I think its worth it to play the hardways.

Quote: eyerollsixes

The excitment of hitting the hardways with the rest of the table draws me to wanna play them a little bit. Maybe I can buy the 4, and play the hard 6&8 and add to the 4 when I hit the hardways.

Wellcome... Since you are there for the excitement, do what excites you the most! Hardway bets have very high house edges, so over time it is really unlikely to be ahead when you bet them. But you certainly get 'excitement value' when you hit one!

The hardways seem to be a money maker for the casino like nothing else at Craps.

The HE of course is a problem, but you also do not get much of an increase in variance vis a vis place bets or the line. A problem when you are trying to get lucky, so this explains a lot.

source:
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/

A hardway bet is a minimum $1 bet in most casinos. I don't think u need to worry about getting crushed betting pocket change on a bet u could hit a few times quickly and be up for a long time.

Quote: eyerollsixes

A hardway bet is a minimum $1 bet in most casinos.
I don't think u need to worry about getting crushed betting pocket change on a bet u could hit a few times quickly and be up for a long time.

Exactly what the casinos love to hear.

That is one way to look at it as pocket change since $1 bets
really will not add up to anything over time for any one player. (but for the casino)
At least not a life changing total.

This does not include the entertainment value of making the hardway bets.
That could be priceless to some.


Would you bet $500 or $1000 on a hardway?
With just a 9 or 11% chance of winning it? (just think of the win!)
Maybe not at one time,
unless those wagers are a small % of your total bankroll,
but you easily can over a lifetime of play at $1 per bet

What is your chance of showing a profit after 500 such bets?
1k or 5k such bets??
What do you think??
50/50
60/40
40/60
At 7 and 9 to 1 payoffs, it should be one of the above or close to them

The key is knowing the more bets you make, the less chances you have of coming out ahead.


Good Luck at the tables

Quote: eyerollsixes

For a small price to play I think its worth it to play the hardways.

Visual anyone?

@hw_press_schedule6 = ( 3, 30, 50, 75, 100, 1000, 10000 );
@hw_press_schedule5 = ( 1, 8, 64, 512, 1024 );
@hw_press_schedule4 = ( 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10000 );
@hw_press_schedule3 = ( 1, 6, 36, 200, 1200 );
@hw_press_schedule2 = ( 1, 5, 25, 100, 500 );
@hw_press_schedule1 = ( 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 );

Quote: eyerollsixes

A hardway bet is a minimum $1 bet in most casinos. I don't think u need to worry about getting crushed betting pocket change on a bet u could hit a few times quickly and be up for a long time.

This is the general idea for hardways. If you drown it with real bets: like placing the 6/8 and PL/come with odds - the extremely high house edge turns into a rather small expected loss. It becomes an issue when a significant percentage of your play goes through the hardways. This threshold is different for everyone. For me, it's about $1 on wasted bets for every $50 of better action.

Quote: ahiromu

This is the general idea for hardways. If you drown it with real bets: like placing the 6/8 and PL/come with odds - the extremely high house edge turns into a rather small expected loss. It becomes an issue when a significant percentage of your play goes through the hardways. This threshold is different for everyone. For me, it's about $1 on wasted bets for every $50 of better action.

There are many legitimate reasons to bet the hardways

#1) Your money is not important to you at all (IE: the pocket change as opposed to the money you would prefer not to lose)
#2) You feel that you can roll a specific hardway and want a challenge and need some skin in the game to make it interesting
#3) You have so little money left (IE: less than passline minimum), if you don't get paid a large multiple of your bet, there is no chance to keep playing
#4) Dealer tip (IE: See #1)

My most frequent hardways are currently the hard 4 and the hard 10. The chart above is for random data. Hardway expectation results are somehow dramatically different with real roll data than with random data for some shooters.

For my recorded rolls, I have ten extra hardways compared to random. Betting all the hardways $1 each and not pressing them (grinding the hardways) leads to $100 loss for 2652 rolls. That's about 3.9 cents per roll. $4.00 * 0.0278 = $0.1112 per roll. So I am only losing 35% of what I would expect for straight random data on the grind. IE: if the edge per roll half as high (which would still be twice as high as the passline) I would would be ahead at this point on a grind. And hitting hardways is something that I specifically set out to do and believe I hit more hardways than average and have told people from the beginning that I do.

That being said, I don't bet the hardways myself much BECAUSE of the edge. I look at it as a sort of bet you make to challenge yourself more than anything.

But even still, and going back years in the posts, it's the parlay hardways that I see people making money on.

And with my rolls, if you parlay the hardways consistently, you can make money if you time it right.

But it is still a terrible bet if you ask me. It is a bet for a desperate soul who needs to win quick and then quickly take money and do something else with it (IE: not play craps).

For my recorded rolls, I am actually overcoming the edge in the field so far on the grind (no pressure) and on all of the place bets but not the hardways. This is particularly true since many numbers that I am higher on destroy hardway bets (the easy even box numbers). IE: even if you are rolling well, rolling enough hardways to bet the hardways frequently and come out better off without getting lucky on a parlay is VERY difficult to do.

More than anything, though, the hardways are an EXCITING bet to make in craps. And it's the only bet in the center of the table that is even worth mentioning on a forum like this. So if you can play it and win and have fun, that's the best overall reason to do it.

It looks like a much better play to take the $ earned from hitting the hardway to press other bets rather then to press the hardways up.

Quote: eyerollsixes

It looks like a much better play to take the $ earned from hitting the hardway to press other bets rather then to press the hardways up.

Yes, as an alternative to tipping, the house edge at 2.78% is better than 100.00%