Poll
12 votes (42.85%) | |||
16 votes (57.14%) |
28 members have voted
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/12780-show-tomorrow-night-at-7-30pm/22/#post215159
"The thing is, and there is no way around it, if you cant obtain the skill to extend your rolls and have more repeat
numbers than normal percentages dictate, there is no bet on the table, no series of bets, that will make you a
winner... over time."
Extend your rolls... do you mean the length of a DI hand including the 7out?Quote: dicesitterThe thing is, and there is no way around it,
1) if you cant obtain the skill to extend your rolls and
2) have more repeat numbers than normal percentages dictate,
Dicesitter
Are you saying a DI has a longer average number of rolls per hand than a random roller at 1671/196 or 8.525510204 rolls on average?
Where is the proof??
Gots any Documents??
Are you also saying that 50% of DIs do NOT 7 out within 6 rolls as does random rollers??
Where is the data.
But now you add
2) have more repeat numbers than normal percentages dictate,
What IS the normal # of repeat numbers for random rollers?
You do not have to count the horn numbers, but you could and show both values.
You are a DI and should have those numbers available. Yes??
I see the Wizard has never shown those numbers. Why?? I know not.
I have them, but they are from computer generated rolls, and only have about 90,000 actual dice rolls to sample from.
Too small of a sample... maybe
What IS the normal # of repeat numbers for random rollers?
Show the distribution please.
How many more are needed by a DI to be meaningful??
Quote: 7crapsfrom:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/12780-show-tomorrow-night-at-7-30pm/22/#post215159
"The thing is, and there is no way around it, if you cant obtain the skill to extend your rolls and have more repeat
numbers than normal percentages dictate, there is no bet on the table, no series of bets, that will make you a
winner... over time."
Extend your rolls... do you mean the length of a DI hand including the 7out?
Are you saying a DI has a longer average number of rolls per hand than a random roller at 1671/196 or 8.525510204 rolls on average?
Where is the proof??
Gots any Documents??
Are you also saying that 50% of DIs do NOT 7 out within 6 rolls as does random rollers??
Where is the data.
But now you add
2) have more repeat numbers than normal percentages dictate,
What IS the normal # of repeat numbers for random rollers?
You do not have to count the horn numbers, but you could and show both values.
You are a DI and should have those numbers available. Yes??
I see the Wizard has never shown those numbers. Why?? I know not.
I have them, but they are from computer generated rolls, and only have about 90,000 actual dice rolls to sample from.
Too small of a sample... maybe
What IS the normal # of repeat numbers for random rollers?
Show the distribution please.
How many more are needed by a DI to be meaningful??
Martingale at Caesars works for a long time. Case closed. It depends on how you define long, but this is an easy one.
Quote: Ahigh
Martingale at Caesars works for a long time. Case closed. It depends on how you define long, but this is an easy one.
Very true .... no tossing necessary, only DI betting skills
Dice setters have no skill, just an opinion.
I started evaluating skills at age 16. I would often have to suggest a handicap for players of unequal skills.
Spotting the 8 in 9 ball. Or spotting 25 points in a 14-1 game of 100.
But there is no skill in dice setting.
If there was, the following would be true.
In 120 rolls a dice setter could roll a number, say 2 or 3, more 7's than a completely unskilled person ( me )
Or 6's 8's whatever.
Or would lay me 2 or 3 to 1 I would not beat him heads up in such a contest.
Or just how miniscule is the non-existent edge dice setters have ?
Screw math and probabilities. Try beating this unskilled shooter. How big an edge do you really have ?
I will tell you though, I am the one that feels stupid here.
The so-called random rollers have more rolls that go over 30 rolls of the dice, that's because they out number the DI's tens of thousands to one. Some casinos will never see a DI in it, in those casinos everybody is the same, they are all random rollers, because nobody stuck them with a name, like being called a DI.
DI's have just as many short rolls as anybody else, I've seen more money lost on betting on a bunch of so-called DI's then the random rollers, some times it's comical to stand back and watch the carnage when you have a table full of DI's on the same table. If someone doesn't get lucky and get on a roll, they will over bet every shooter, thinking that the next great shooter is going to dig them out of the hole they dug for themselves.
I still say though, that if you take one or two of these same guys off that table and put them on a different table you would stand a better chance of winning, mainly because they wouldn't be chasing their money, and betting larger, when they should have been betting smaller!
Basically random rollers never count their rolls so you will not find any roll data on them, but if you take the time to ask your dealers if there was any good rolls on the table the day you are playing you would be surprised how many times they tell you that some random rollers had a fifty hand, or someone that won a 6 point fire bet was a random roller!!!!!!
It happens just about everyday, but you have the great fiction writers telling all their followers that if they want to win , they have to bet only on themselves. If you asked most of the players on a craps table if the guy that just had a fifty roll was a DI, they couldn't tell you. They don't care, all they know is they just won money because they were never told that they couldn't bet on them, and to only bet on their self.
Quote:
Are you also saying that 50% of DIs do NOT 7 out within 6 rolls as does random rollers??
Where is the data.
You can't prove that someone is a DI, because one day they will get lucky and have a good roll, the next time they shoot they could be the PSO king.
" Win if you can, Lose if you must, but always Cheat. "
Please remember that even random shooters set their dice.
So we have to separate how the roll or toss is made to determine who is a random shooter.
I have been at tables a hundred times over when a shooter carefully aligns the dice, setting particular faces on the top and front, and then picks up the "set dice" and shakes them virgously in his hand and throws them wildly down the table. That kind of dice setter is excluded from any kind of discussion involving dice influencers or dice controllers.
I would also eliminate from a discussion about dice influencers and dice controllers anyone who does not attempt an even throw, keeping the dice together on axis and minimizing the amount of bounce and roll on the table. They are nothing more than random shooters no matter what ceremony they use prior to releasing the dice from their fingers.
Who is Gracie? Gracie Allen?
Longer sessions? Longer than they were pre-ordained to be prior to the over-powering influence of Dice Influencing?
More repeat numbers on a roll than there would have been on that roll but for the chicken entrails?
If its 1.414 percent for us, how much is it for a Dice Influencer?
If you guys who are die hard DIs are playing at Caesars with all this "DI advantage" in the air how come all the other players at that table are losing money? Ain't the other players betting on the same dice as the DI is?
Quote: FleaStiff
If you guys who are die hard DIs are playing at Caesars with all this "DI advantage" in the air how come all the other players at that table are losing money?
I was at Caesers a couple weeks ago. I hit 7 points when the dice got passed to me... I think everyone was making money! :) I don't normally play there...
When the one guy left with $47,000+ (nothing bigger than yellow chips, and he had a TON of yellows -- two stacks plus) he was mouthing off to the boxman for telling him he needed to calm down right before he sevened out on his roll losing more than my lifetime losses in a single roll. The dispute was over the whale's use of the F word.
After my roll, the total amount of chips was in the ballpark of $80,000, but there was already about $35,000 on the table when I started. As a percentage of starting money it was nothing special, but seeing tens of thousands being won on my roll was something different. By the time he colored up (that was when I counted) he had $47,000, but he lost some on his own roll.
I gave the Wynn a heads up that I planned to come and shoot the bones on a high limit table and that I ran a website and everything else, and there were plenty of suits watching as I rolled. I basically wanted to see if they would be afraid of my shot. I got a whole lot of looks from a whole lot of suits, but nobody took the dice away from me (I have only had the dice taken from me when I felt it was because of fear of losses once, and the boxman claimed it was for another reason, so I can't be 100% sure what the truth is).
I didn't bet much but I won money and bought me an $80 shirt on the way out to remember how much fun I had. It's a different experience and that was my first time at a $100 minimum table.
I will probably continue my experience to see how much money I can have a casino lose to my shot before they say something to me about my shooting. But Wynn has lifetime losses from my shot of about $35,000+ right now just from one roll. I don't think they track that, but they might after the slider incident where the attempt to divert the scheme to take money from the casino was made by using what was an illegal roll. $35,000 is a far cry from $700,000+, but I'm already at about 5% of what they are known to be upset about from the media.
If I continue doing this, I will keep better records in the future. I recorded the details of this on my website for my own purposes. I intentionally bet the passline and the don't passline for $100 each after I won my first point just so I could focus on my shot instead of worrying about the money at all. I have had $3000 of my own money on the felt at a time before, so it's not that I have an aversion to high limit play, but I accept that I am gambling when I do that compared to my normal tiny bets, and I wasn't trying to gamble for this experiment, I just wanted to see what the Wynn would do (if anything). They pointed out every last imaginable problem with my roll, but they did not take the dice (although I could tell they were not ecstatic about how I was throwing them).
#1) Don't play too much (at high limits)
#2) Don't make stupid bets
#3) Make a (long term) plan and stick to it
I continue to view the game of craps as a game intended to be entertaining. But if you do want lifetime wins, the large percentage of your play SHOULD be at relatively tiny bet levels compared to your big plays. Maybe something like Poker. You don't play with bet amounts like the world series that often: you spend a lot of time just preparing for the big moments.
I think craps should be considered similar to that. Most of the time you are practicing, or at least preparing mentally and financially for your meaningful plays. Set goals and targets and when you meet them STOP GAMBLING BIG and then enjoy your spoils.
Fun. Sounds like you can feel like a high roller, only making a pass line minimum bet of $100 on your own roll, for an expected loss of $1.41 per hand (less per roll). The PL is a low variance bet; less than blackjack, slightly more than baccarat. Most people don't realize it won't hurt them THAT much.Quote: Ahigh...Wynn...
You had fun and won others a ton of money. That's good. You didn't make the casinos sweat but the suits took an interest. Sounds like you might get more attention there in the future. (We all want attention!)
The thing is i am not on here to prove anything to you... i dont care.... i know i have an advantage, i know what my
srr is over time on tables that fit my toss, i know that when i go to the casino to play craps the money does not
come out of my pocket, but rather my safe. When i win, all the winnings go back in, when i lose, which i do more
often than i win, my stop loss does not allow me to take a beating.
If the average roll is 6 , that means on average you have 6 chances to get paid either on a number or the pass line.
If you can increase the average throw to 8 , that means you have 1/3rd more chances to get paid each hand. You
dont have to be real smart to look back on your craps plays so see what would happen if you just extended each
hand by 1 toss, yet alone 2.
I dont care if people dont beleive in dice control, i dont even care if they are to lazy to try and dont have any
confidence in themselves, what bothers me is the constant discouraging of others that may well try and some of
those will get it. I dont have much respect for people that discourage others because they cant or wont.
There are many dealers and pit bosses around the country that i know, that clearly indicate dice control works,
but there are not many good enough to make it work.
dicesitter
*I'm going with a definition of "over time" as meaning going into billions of rolls of the dice. If the definition was changed to something considerably smaller, such as the number of lifetime rolls a regular-but-not-constant player might roll, then the answer is that some lucky few would also win without DI.
*the usual assumptions are in place, such as having casino conditions and excluding outright cheating [as an alternative]
*such a vote does not mean I know for sure DI is possible
Quote: dicesitterI dont care if people dont beleive in dice control, i dont even care if they are too lazy to try and dont have any
confidence in themselves, what bothers me is the constant discouraging of others that may well try and some of those will get it. I dont have much respect for people that discourage others because they cant or wont.
Nicely put.
Quote: dicesitteri know i have an advantage
dicesitter
I know you don't. And am willing to bet you don't. You tell me what you can do, give me specifics, and I'll bet you can't do it.
Maybe for all bets except line/odds.Quote: boymimboA player who goes to the casino once a week for four hours at a Craps table beginning at age 30 will experience 60 x 4 x 52 x 50 = 624,000 rolls. The odds of him coming ahead are virtually zero.
I think Alan Shank has show some very good examples how the odds bet allows many players after that number of lifetime rolls (bets) to still show a profit.
see if I can dig up his links. Alan!!
from ev/sd
345X odds players has about a 10% chance of showing a profit after say 185,000 resolved line bets
10X odds is about 28.7%
20x odds is about 38.5%
100x odds is about 47.5%
All hope is not lost, but in reality where craps players make many kinds of bets,
it probably is
unless
a bet selection method is followed that allows the player to win more bets than expectation. Not counting any DI skill also.
Quote: Ahigh
I gave the Wynn a heads up that I planned to come and shoot the bones on a high limit table and that I ran a website and everything else, and there were plenty of suits watching as I rolled.
I think you're taking yourself too seriously. If they were watching it's not because they respected you, but because they were afraid you would be a trouble maker.
Quote: dicesitterThere are many dealers and pit bosses around the country that i know, that clearly indicate dice control works,
There certainly are, and this is why I ran into such heat at MGM, NYNY and Bellagio... and I wasn't controlling the dice. I just got lucky.
But what you also wrote here is also true: "there are not many good enough to make it work" and I don't think that there are maybe two or three in the world, and it certainly can't be a skill that can be learned in a weekend session costing $1,800 or by practicing on rigs at home, or by setting up cameras on a home table.
Quote: AhighI gave the Wynn a heads up that I planned to come and shoot the bones on a high limit table and that I ran a website and everything else, and there were plenty of suits watching as I rolled. I basically wanted to see if they would be afraid of my shot. I got a whole lot of looks from a whole lot of suits
Wow, you told them to fear you as you "ran a website and everything."
"Everything?"
Does "everything" include your unending clamor for attention ("LOOK AT ME, EVERYBODY, LOOK AT ME!") and validation?
You got lucky.
You ain't the Golden Child.
Get over yourself: in fact, you might benefit from a consultation with a psychiatrist.
If it's a setting bias (resulting from you setting the dice), you would see two different numbers come up with more frequency depending on how the dice was set, I am guessing.
Quote: AlanMendelsonThere certainly are, and this is why I ran into such heat at MGM, NYNY and Bellagio... and I wasn't controlling the dice. I just got lucky.
But what you also wrote here is also true: "there are not many good enough to make it work" and I don't think that there are maybe two or three in the world, and it certainly can't be a skill that can be learned in a weekend session costing $1,800 or by practicing on rigs at home, or by setting up cameras on a home table.
I don't understand the bolded part...if it is possible, at all, to learn a skilled shot in craps, wouldn't practicing on a home table be the best way to hone your skill? All craps tables are different, but if you buy one second hand from a casino, or even first hand from a supplier, and set it up to mimic real-casino conditions, what better practice conditions could there be?
would have started had i known how many hours i needed to put in, and still do. But i would not trade all
the great times i have had on the table since....
But i would say there are alot more than just a couple that get good results.... i personally know quite a few.
The real good guys and gals have total control over their craps... they understand their toss, when they
are on axis with different sets. My playing partner and i know right away if either of our tosses are
worth betting on. If i am off my partner will not bet much on me, if he is off i wont bet much on him. If one
is on we bet more starting out. If not we quit.
I take the dice 4-5 times, if there is a flaw i cant correct, i quit..We are not there to prove to anyone we
are good at dice control, we need to see if our throw is good enough to invest our money on.
Its not that random throwers cant
get good rolls, they can, some of the best i have ever seen have been randam throwers... the longest throw in
history was by a lady that was playing her first time, but that is now and
then, maybe 1 really good roll a year... that does not compare to the number a good dice sitter can have in a
year....
Quote: AlanMendelsonI think you're taking yourself too seriously. If they were watching it's not because they respected you, but because they were afraid you would be a trouble maker.
I don't think that, necessarily, AlanMendelson. I also doubt that they were scared of his shot. (No offense, AHigh) I think that some of the attention he was getting from suits, if you re-read his post, (Again, no offense, AHigh) is because he was betting the Doey-Don't and apparently not taking/laying odds on anything. I would probably cock my head at someone betting in a fashion that could only push or lose, myself.
I mean I don't get it. The guy asks for statistical analysis on rolls which should be extremely easy to figure out with some basic research skills (binomial and Chi-squared analysis). The trials he is running are extremely insignificant to prove anything. He's a dice influencer, he's not an influencer. He's lucky, he's unlucky. He's broken his bankroll for the month and then buys in for 3K at a $100 table.
If anything, what's clear to me that this guy has our attention, and that's what he wants. He's dominating three or four of the main threads on this board. He's got a TV show that people are actually watching.
Quote: boymimboIf anything, what's clear to me that this guy has our attention, and that's what he wants. He's dominating three or four of the main threads on this board. He's got a TV show that people are actually watching.
Maybe he feels he has to adopt his degenerate gambler personae in order to placate his long-suffering wife.
Poor woman; he actually has a fricking craps table in their home, next to the kitchen.
No real plan, no real success, just an obsessive compulsion.
Quote: MrVQuote: boymimboIf anything, what's clear to me that this guy has our attention, and that's what he wants. He's dominating three or four of the main threads on this board. He's got a TV show that people are actually watching.
Maybe he feels he has to adopt his degenerate gambler personae in order to placate his long-suffering wife.
Poor woman; he actually has a fricking craps table in their home, next to the kitchen.
No real plan, no real success, just an obsessive compulsion.
LOL. I may have to get my woman to sign in and respond to this one!
I am not knocking having a craps table in your house.
It's no different really than a pool table, and I have had one of those before.
The issue is where you chose to locate it.
You talked about owning a million dollar home before, so why not put the craps table in the den or some other more appropriate location?
Quote: boymimboA player who goes to the casino once a week for four hours at a Craps table beginning at age 30 will experience 60 x 4 x 52 x 50 = 624,000 rolls. The odds of him coming ahead are virtually zero.
see my blog for about 300,000 rolls [90,000 come-outs] and some outcomes, also see 7craps numbers there. The odds of it wouldnt be zero, just too much to hope for [g]
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/odiousgambit/blog/#post854
Quote: MrVA craps table adjoining the kitchen is ... unusual at best.
I am not knocking having a craps table in your house.
It's no different really than a pool table, and I have had one of those before.
The issue is where you chose to locate it.
You talked about owning a million dollar home before, so why not put the craps table in the den or some other more appropriate location?
I've been to the craps palace. It is not out of place in its location in Aaron's house at all. Since he spends a lot of his free time there, and he is proud of it, and he shows it off to guests, there is no reason it shouldn't be located where it is. It was quite convenient for him to serve beverages and snacks. There are a bunch of things we can question Aaron about regarding craps. We've sunk to new lows if we are questioning his home decor.
Quote:
Ahigh
I'm pretty proud of my crap set up at home and even more proud that I've gone further than others like doc wong never put a craps table in his house and is supposedly the expert on the subject one of the goals that I have is to go further than other people have gone before and even if it's only in my crap set up my craps table set up and how much effort and time I put into it it's noteworthy to me in terms of my goals of pushing things further and that's what I'm trying to do in all areas not just one thing .
Now I would hate to take this in a different direction, but have you ever met Stanford Wong? How how many books on gambling have you written? Here is a list of the books he has on the market:
Professional Blackjack (1975)
Professional Video Poker
Wong on Dice (2006). Pi Yee Press (pdf). ISBN 0-935926-26-7
Blackjack Secrets
Basic Blackjack (1992). Pi Yee Press, ISBN 0-935926-19-4
Tournament Blackjack
Tournament Craps
Complete Idiot's Guide to Managing your T
Optimal Strategy for Pai Gow Poker
Vegas Downtown Blackjack
Sharp Sports Betting
Casino Tournament Strategy
Betting Cheap Claimers
Winning Without Counting
Complete Idiot's Guide to Gambling Like a Pro
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_Wong
I guess that we will have to wait for your entry into Wikipeda.
I've played on tables with Stanford, and he's just like anybody else, some times he gets lucky when he is playing and shooting, but the one thing that I give him credit for is when he admitted that he was lead down the Yellow Brick Road, by others into thinking that he could beat the game of craps by trying to become a so-called DI.
Ahigh if you took the time to read about Stanford you wouldn't have tried to make fun of him.
Quote:
Wong began playing blackjack in 1964[1] while teaching finance courses at San Francisco State University and getting his Ph.D in Finance from Stanford University in California.
Now what degree did you say you had?
Quote: SOOPOOI've been to the craps palace. It is not out of place in its location in Aaron's house at all. Since he spends a lot of his free time there, and he is proud of it, and he shows it off to guests, there is no reason it shouldn't be located where it is. It was quite convenient for him to serve beverages and snacks. There are a bunch of things we can question Aaron about regarding craps. We've sunk to new lows if we are questioning his home decor.
I've no doubt it is very convenient FOR HIM, but I was thinking about his wife.
But yeah, I'll drop the subject: observations of a member's personal quirks may not be relevant to our collective desire to extract more enjoyment / profit from the casinos.
She also has a major problem with me even inviting anybody that I have met from the craps tables to our house, that is from out of town, that I've not known for years. Her way of thinking is you never know who you are dealing with.
Quote:
The issue is not home decor, it is locating a huge craps table next to an open kitchen.
It implies that craps is the focus of his life, both personal and family, and that is just plain ... out of balance.
All I can say is it must be true love, with Ahigh's girl friend or wife!!!!!!
All I'm saying is that I have gone further than him in certain areas .. one of them being having a table to do research on the possibility of dice control. I would think he would have done that before writing a book, but I guess being an author first makes the primary motivation to sell books rather than to verify what you're writing about.
I am trying to learn. If there were a book from someone who knows more than me on the topics I want to learn about, I would read those books. But so far, most of these guys are more alike than dissimilar, including Wong. The focus for the majority of these guys is the kind of thing that people who know nothing would be interested to read about. I'm beyond the novice phase of when to bet a $6 odds bet instead of $5 and so on.
I have my own credits, but I am not an author, nor am I trying to pull out a ruler to compare male member sizes.
In either case, the woman may still be the one to come out here and arbitrate based on you haters doing guessing games to try to figure things out.
Maybe you could ask her if you were ever lucky enough to meet her.
Quote: AcesAndEightsQuote: AlanMendelsonThere certainly are, and this is why I ran into such heat at MGM, NYNY and Bellagio... and I wasn't controlling the dice. I just got lucky.
But what you also wrote here is also true: "there are not many good enough to make it work" and I don't think that there are maybe two or three in the world, and it certainly can't be a skill that can be learned in a weekend session costing $1,800 or by practicing on rigs at home, or by setting up cameras on a home table.
I don't understand the bolded part...if it is possible, at all, to learn a skilled shot in craps, wouldn't practicing on a home table be the best way to hone your skill? All craps tables are different, but if you buy one second hand from a casino, or even first hand from a supplier, and set it up to mimic real-casino conditions, what better practice conditions could there be?
Indeed practicing a skill at home is something you should do.
We have all seen the throws -- there is no control, and there really isn't any measurable skill. Having cameras and computers and TV show doesn't mean there is skill.
Sorry, guys. But I will not be convinced that there is any skill or ability because of an array of computer and camera equipment or a TV show.
Tomorrow, I can put on a TV show on the Internet (using the same UStream website) showing myself healing a man who could not walk. Because it is on Internet TV will you believe me? I will show myself practicing my art, with dozens of crippled people coming into my home, and how I place my hands on their shoulders and they will walk out of the room under their own power, and I will call it my "influence" on their bodies. And that too will be on TV. Will you believe me?
Quote:
AlanMendelson
We have all seen the throws -- there is no control, and there really isn't any measurable skill. Having cameras and computers and TV show doesn't mean there is skill.
Sorry, guys. But I will not be convinced that there is any skill or ability because of an array of computer and camera equipment or a TV show.
Tomorrow, I can put on a TV show on the Internet (using the same UStream website) showing myself healing a man who could not walk. Because it is on Internet TV will you believe me? I will show myself practicing my art, with dozens of crippled people coming into my home, and how I place my hands on their shoulders and they will walk out of the room under their own power, and I will call it my "influence" on their bodies. And that too will be on TV. Will you believe me?
Alan
Then we would have to praise you, what would Ahigh do?
Quote: Ahigh
In either case, the woman may still be the one to come out here and arbitrate based on you haters .
Geez, Aaron. Haters? Thats a cheezy internet term for
anybody that disagrees with you. Do you really think
we're 'haters'? How about detractors. Isn't that a
little more civilized?