Failed the Wizard
Man, ALOT of 3 and 11 rolled.
so i started putting $1 on the 3 and 11 every time i win $.
after $10 and missing the 3 twice, i stopped.
it was frustrating missing the 3 plus I failed the Wizard's Motto:
"Was the bet a good bet?"
10% House edge is NOT a good bet.
Plus I'm chasing patterns in random dice rolls.
Flogging myself w/wet noodles for penance...
I'll leave you with this; I've never hit on so many 2's and 12's in my entire life!
Quote: CrapsForever100x, you are on the right track. Take a notebook and start writing down all the numbers that keep coming up on the e-craps machine. You'll notice most of the machines follow the same sets of numbers and a clear pattern. Don't focus on the Math; focus on the numbers that keep coming up at certain periods of the game.
Big disagreement from me. Any game that gets approved from the Gaming Control Board I trust to be programmed properly where each outcome of each die has a 1 in 6 chance and the two dice are independent. To do otherwise would violate NRS 14.040. If anybody has evidence that the game is performing otherwise please post your log of rolls.
Meanwhile, my penance is five push-ups for every time you bet the 3 and/or 11.
The only thing I could think of would be electronic interference at a particular installation or some sort of "expectation bias" from the observer.
Quote: WizardBig disagreement from me. Any game that gets approved from the Gaming Control Board I trust to be programmed properly where each outcome of each die has a 1 in 6 chance and the two dice are independent. To do otherwise would violate NRS 14.040. If anybody has evidence that the game is performing otherwise please post your log of rolls.
Meanwhile, my penance is five push-ups for every time you bet the 3 and/or 11.
As a programmer, you are aware we don't have random generators, we instead have pseudo-random generators deemed sufficiently random by the regulators. Last year the Indian casinos fought against the inclusion of the autocorrelation (or serial correlation) test and run tests included for Class II devices.
There is a big assumpstion about the robustness of these software programs.
Also, there was a post about autocorrelation in roulette on A.P. Heat and E. Jacobson stated something to the effect that "autoorrelation in roulette is bogus" and that casinos don't take autocorrelation seriously. Unfortunately, E. Jacobson removed his comment. The point is many of old Class II machines were NEVER tested for specific aspects of randomness and YET these SAME machines had been deemed sufficiently random by regulators. As you know, you can't have autocorrelation and randomness at the same time.
My point is you can write a program that the each outcome of each die in 1in 6, but you may still have autocorrelation because people don't test for autocorrelation.
this e-Craps machine has real dice.
all chips/betting is by touchscreen but the dice is real and it rolls itself.
i see the dice under a clear plastic dome.
Craps itself is a rather simple game..... there is a house advantage on every bet out there with the exception of the
pass line come out roll bet, and the come bet flat toss.
If you have 5 bets on the table you have 5 different contracts with the casino, each of them carries a house advantage
for ....them..... but unlike many games the house advantage on each and every bet can be known to the players...
think about that, they tell you bet a hard 8 and we are taking 9.09% bet a hard 10 and it is 11.11 bet a big red and it
is 16.67% and the great iron cross....1.52 on the 6, 1.52 on the 8, 5.56 on the field.
Which one of you would place your money in the bank if they indicated ok we will watch it and only take 10% .... each day.
Yet we all have seen millions lost on craps tables on these bets....
There is no way to beat the table unless you control the dice, and there is no way to beat the table even if you control the
dice but dont control the way you bet.
The only system that needs to be controlled, is the one that operates between your ears.
Dicesitter
Quote: Ardent1The point is many of old Class II machines were NEVER tested for specific aspects of randomness and YET these SAME machines had been deemed sufficiently random by regulators. As you know, you can't have autocorrelation and randomness at the same time.
In my opinion class II games are rather silly and not very relevant to this topic. Nevertheless, I'd be interested to hear directly from Eliot about his point on the topic of autocorrelation.
Quote: 100xOddsi see the dice under a clear plastic dome.
I'm still confused about what game we're actually talking about. Are we talking about what many call "bubble craps"? If so, is the theory that the dice are unequally weighted or somehow correlated?
Quote: CrapsForever100x, you are on the right track. Take a notebook and start writing down all the numbers that keep coming up on the e-craps machine. You'll notice most of the machines follow the same sets of numbers and a clear pattern. Don't focus on the Math; focus on the numbers that keep coming up at certain periods of the game.
I'll leave you with this; I've never hit on so many 2's and 12's in my entire life!
Your position is that the machines intentionally give players an edge on some bets in a mad scheme to take pass line bets faster?
Quote: 100xOddsArdent,
this e-Craps machine has real dice.
all chips/betting is by touchscreen but the dice is real and it rolls itself.
i see the dice under a clear plastic dome.
Interblock has a real roulette under a dome where the player bets on a touchscreen.
In the roulette wheel, the ball launches by itself and the wheel spins by itself.
The players can see the ball roll around the edge of the wheel and land into a pocket.
Here's the punchline -- software drives the launch speed of the ball and software tells how fast the wheel has to spin. Get my drift.
Quote: Ardent1Here's the punchline -- software drives the launch speed of the ball and software tells how fast the wheel has to spin. Get my drift.
I assume your "drift" is suggesting that the software is attempting to achieve sector targeting, and that it's targeting the sector with the fewest bets.
It is my understanding that the software uses an RNG to determine the launch speed, wheel speed, and even the delay for the launch.
Additionally, there are the same bumpers and deflectors in the wheel that are on traditional wheels.
I think your "drift" is driven by paranoia.
The way those dice shake, can you roll a 12 then another 12? Are people tracking this?
Quote: Ardent1Interblock has a real roulette under a dome where the player bets on a touchscreen.
In the roulette wheel, the ball launches by itself and the wheel spins by itself.
The players can see the ball roll around the edge of the wheel and land into a pocket.
Here's the punchline -- software drives the launch speed of the ball and software tells how fast the wheel has to spin. Get my drift.
lol.. in craps, the dice have a sensor that tells the machine what #'s are on top.
so you're saying the machine will stop the dice bouncing at a 7 or hit the point, depending on how many right and dark bettors there are at the moment?
for roulette, you're also saying the software takes into account the weight of the ball, gravity, deflection speed off a bumper,etc to estimate a zone where the ball should land?
/tin foil hat
Quote: FinsRuleHow do these machines work mechanically? Has anyone done a study? Is there enough to the machine to make every roll independent? It's not just enough for it to average over time. Each roll needs to be completely independent.
The way those dice shake, can you roll a 12 then another 12? Are people tracking this?
i've seen back to back 12s in e-craps.
i've also seen back to back 12's on a live table.
i hope the casino is tracking the #s rolled, and the gaming commission looking over these #s every one in a while to see if it's still random.
i also wonder how often they change out to a fresh set of dice?
Yes. At least with the brand machine I was watching.Quote: FinsRuleThe way those dice shake, can you roll a 12 then another 12? Are people tracking this?
When it is time to roll, the machine does little bounces to "shake" the dice. While this is going on, the players watch, and the one "stooter" eventually presses a button to "shoot" them. At that point, there is on huge bounce, with very unpredictable results. when the dice finally settle, the sensor reads them and pays the winners, etc.
FYI: I'm fairly certain that the "sensor" is just optical. I.E. The camera really does look at the dice and recognize the spot patterns. There isn't any electronics in the dice to "tell" the machine how they landed.
The dice are huge. Like 4" or thereabouts. They also have rounded corners. In fact, the round is the maximum roundness you can have with a cube. I.E. Each "face" is a circle.Quote: 100xOddsi also wonder how often they change out to a fresh set of dice?
The result of the size and roundness means there is very little damage when they hit each other, so that they don't need to get changed too often.
Quote: DJTeddyBearI assume your "drift" is suggesting that the software is attempting to achieve sector targeting, and that it's targeting the sector with the fewest bets.
My drift is the machine runs on "software."
Quote: DJTeddyBearYes. At least with the brand machine I was watching.
When it is time to roll, the machine does little bounces to "shake" the dice. While this is going on, the players watch, and the one "stooter" eventually presses a button to "shoot" them. At that point, there is on huge bounce, with very unpredictable results. when the dice finally settle, the sensor reads them and pays the winners, etc.
FYI: I'm fairly certain that the "sensor" is just optical. I.E. The camera really does look at the dice and recognize the spot patterns. There isn't any electronics in the dice to "tell" the machine how they landed.
ahh... optical reader.. never thought of that but makes sense.
no electronics in the dice = simplier + cheaper.
no need to do testing and prove w/globs of data that the electronics inside the dice dont interfere w/the dice outcomes
Quote: 100xOddslol.. in craps, the dice have a sensor that tells the machine what #'s are on top.
so you're saying the machine will stop the dice bouncing at a 7 or hit the point, depending on how many right and dark bettors there are at the moment?
for roulette, you're also saying the software takes into account the weight of the ball, gravity, deflection speed off a bumper,etc to estimate a zone where the ball should land?
You have described a self-contained system. You forgot to ask yourself how the games was created and operated to SIMULATE craps. You just ASSUME it's the same thing as a live game.
Uhnlike you, I don't make those types of assumptions. I am a game designer by accident, and it made me realize how it is dangerous to make assumptions.
And lastly, you are free to try to put things in my mouth (which is effen rude), but I NEVER MADE YOUR CLAIMS.
Quote: DJTeddyBearYes. At least with the brand machine I was watching.
When it is time to roll, the machine does little bounces to "shake" the dice. While this is going on, the players watch, and the one "stooter" eventually presses a button to "shoot" them. At that point, there is on huge bounce, with very unpredictable results. when the dice finally settle, the sensor reads them and pays the winners, etc.
FYI: I'm fairly certain that the "sensor" is just optical. I.E. The camera really does look at the dice and recognize the spot patterns. There isn't any electronics in the dice to "tell" the machine how they landed.
There isn't any electronics in the dice but there is electronics in the device to "launch" the dice. How about that.
Quote: 100xOddsi've seen back to back 12s in e-craps.
i've also seen back to back 12's on a live table.
i hope the casino is tracking the #s rolled, and the gaming commission looking over these #s every one in a while to see if it's still random.
i also wonder how often they change out to a fresh set of dice?
It's just a little bubble. I just don't know how they can make it completely independent. As everyone knows, you only need a tiny bit of influence/bias in craps to overcome the house edge.
I hope this isn't coming off as a crazy conspiracy theory, because I don't think it is. I just wouldn't be quick to assume that these machines are completely random.
Quote: WizardIn my opinion class II games are rather silly and not very relevant to this topic. Nevertheless, I'd be interested to hear directly from Eliot about his point on the topic of autocorrelation.
Actually, it is very relevant to this topic because it has to do with pseudo-random generators and associated "random" outcomes. My question to the Wizard is do you test for randomness using standard tests for autocorrelation or the run test. Or, is your standard approach is to use the Chi-Square test like what the Class II machines have been doing in the old days?
In the cases regarding Eliot Jacobson, I hold him to a higher standard because he advertises he has a PhD. I was really shocked by his response and the fact he would remove his very strongly-worded comments.
Quote: WizardI'm still confused about what game we're actually talking about. Are we talking about what many call "bubble craps"? If so, is the theory that the dice are unequally weighted or somehow correlated?
Here's the website from Interblock that also makes an electronics craps game http://www.interblock.eu/products/G4/dice/ You can see that it has physical dice and it in a self-contained "bubble".
It would be nice if the other people could post a link to their version of e-craps.
What is autocorrelation?
Quote: WizardI'm still confused about what game we're actually talking about. Are we talking about what many call "bubble craps"? If so, is the theory that the dice are unequally weighted or somehow correlated?
I'm talking about bubble craps, and my theory is that the possibility exists that one roll may influence the results of the next roll. I believe the dice are weighted equally, and the results over time are distributed properly. However, that does not mean that one roll could not help predict the following roll.
Quote: Ardent1Here's the punchline -- software drives the launch speed of the ball and software tells how fast the wheel has to spin. Get my drift.
Nnnnnnnnnooooooooooooooooo comment.
Quote: FleaStiffOkay, I understand that the difference between RNG and Pseudo-RNG is something that fascinates programmers and mathematicians for hours on ends but is really nothing but senseless hair splitting for anyone else.
What is autocorrelation?
We don't have RNG, they are all pseudo-RNG, and we just call it RNG for ease or because we are lazy (so basically there was never any hair to split to begin with). Here's a good article about problems with pseudo-RNG http://vpgenius.com/articles/random-numbers.aspx
Autocorrelation is when the error-terms in a data series are correlated. If you have autocorrelation, you can't have randomness. Going back to the vpgenius article, you can make a strong case for autocorrelation in the "Old Method."
Quote: WizardNnnnnnnnnooooooooooooooooo comment.
Good answer.
I tried to clock the ball launch speed and I am positive there are at least 5 different ball speeds so clearly the software is discerning at what speed the ball is being launched at. I searched the internet and there is ample information about air pressure to launch the ball.
I also tried to clock the wheel, and again, I am positive there are at least 5 different speeds at which the wheel initial spins at and again this is also driven by software.
So basically, my position is there is like a 5x5 matrix or 25 cell of different combinations of ball speed and wheel speed. All my assertion is that software is picking one of the 25 cells right before the ball is released instructing the device on how fast to launch the ball in one direction and to set the speed of the wheel in the other direction.
The other form of randomness is due to the 16 or so deflector pins.
Quote: FinsRuleI'm talking about bubble craps, and my theory is that the possibility exists that one roll may influence the results of the next roll. I believe the dice are weighted equally, and the results over time are distributed properly. However, that does not mean that one roll could not help predict the following roll.
"exists that one roll may influence the results of the next roll" -- I would argue that is autocorrelation.
The big question that no one is addressing is "how" does the electronic device cause the the dice to come to its final outcome. I.e. how does the machine "simulate the "throw" of dice.
Quote: Ardent1The big question that no one is addressing is "how" does the electronic device cause the the dice to come to its final outcome. I.e. how does the machine "simulate the "throw" of dice.
Yes. Someone please answer this.
Assume you're right. Then what? My assertion is, assuming you're right, that the machine picks them randomly, and not to target a specific sector.Quote: Ardent1So basically, my position is there is like a 5x5 matrix or 25 cell of different combinations of ball speed and wheel speed. All my assertion is that software is picking one of the 25 cells right before the ball is released instructing the device on how fast to launch the ball in one direction and to set the speed of the wheel in the other direction.
Quote: Ardent1Good answer.
I tried to clock the ball launch speed and I am positive there are at least 5 different ball speeds so clearly the software is discerning at what speed the ball is being launched at. I searched the internet and there is ample information about air pressure to launch the ball.
I also tried to clock the wheel, and again, I am positive there are at least 5 different speeds at which the wheel initial spins at and again this is also driven by software.
So basically, my position is there is like a 5x5 matrix or 25 cell of different combinations of ball speed and wheel speed. All my assertion is that software is picking one of the 25 cells right before the ball is released instructing the device on how fast to launch the ball in one direction and to set the speed of the wheel in the other direction.
The other form of randomness is due to the 16 or so deflector pins.
I've clocked those wheels (Harrah's Ak-Chin for example) as well and even if you are correct that there are precisely 5 ball speeds and 5 wheel speeds, you're not taking into account the position of the wheel when the ball is launched. Your final bets are locked before the ball is launched so even if you know the speed at which the ball will be released AND the speed of the wheel, you won't know the position of the wheel at launch as this happens after your bets are locked. There are just too many factors to account for to be able to predict even which side of the wheel the ball will stop... not unlike a real roulette game dealt by a croupier.
Simple: It doesn't.Quote: FinsRuleYes. Someone please answer this.Quote: Ardent1The big question that no one is addressing is "how" does the electronic device cause the the dice to come to its final outcome. I.e. how does the machine "simulate the "throw" of dice.
The shake / pop produces an unknown result which is then read optically by the camera.
Note that I used the word "unknown" rather than "random".
Does one outcome influence the next? I.E. Is it less than random? Maybe. Perhaps. I don't know. Then again, I don't care. I say this based upon nothing other than a wish to not engage that part of the argument.
Assuming there IS an influence, good luck with coming up with a procedure for tracking it and exploiting it.
Quote: Wizard
I'm still confused about what game we're actually talking about. Are we talking about what many call "bubble craps"? If so, is the theory that the dice are unequally weighted or somehow correlated?
I did the research and these are in fact Interblock's Organic Dice machines as I compared the devices to Maryland Live's casino propoganda.
Here's Interblock's propaganda on the game and PLEASE pay attention to 1:00 to 1:03 in the video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSV59lHIScQ -- the video makes a comment about how the "computer" controls the "shaker".
I was right -- there is a computer, therefore, you need "software" to run the damn thing. How the game plays depends on how well the software is written.
Basically, the generator shakes the dice and SOFTWARE tells the generator how much to shake.
Quote: FinsRuleYes. Someone please answer this.
Look at the Interblock propaganda video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSV59lHIScQ -- the answer should be self-evident.
Quote: Ardent1I was right -- there is a computer, therefore, you need "software" to run the damn thing.
And have you ever seen the label on any packaged food? It's full of "ingredients." When will such outrages end?
Quote: DJTeddyBearAssume you're right. Then what? My assertion is, assuming you're right, that the machine picks them randomly, and not to target a specific sector.
DJTeddyBear, unlike you I don't make assumptions that things are random. I test for randomness using established statistical techniques.
Btw, I also search for independent verification of randomness. For example Interblock stated that Gaming Labs. Inc. had reviewed these roulette machines. Here is the GLI info on testing for randomness: http://www.gaminglabs.com/default.asp?contentID=141
Quote: NareedAnd have you ever seen the label on any packaged food? It's full of "ingredients." When will such outrages end?
Nareed, are you being unctuous again?
Quote: TheNightflyI've clocked those wheels (Harrah's Ak-Chin for example) as well and even if you are correct that there are precisely 5 ball speeds and 5 wheel speeds, you're not taking into account the position of the wheel when the ball is launched. Your final bets are locked before the ball is launched so even if you know the speed at which the ball will be released AND the speed of the wheel, you won't know the position of the wheel at launch as this happens after your bets are locked. There are just too many factors to account for to be able to predict even which side of the wheel the ball will stop... not unlike a real roulette game dealt by a croupier.
"Your final bets are locked before the ball is launched"
Sorry, but that statement IS NOT CORRECT when applied to Interblock Organic roluette devices in my neck of the woods.
Quote: DJTeddyBearSimple: It doesn't.
The shake / pop produces an unknown result which is then read optically by the camera.
Note that I used the word "unknown" rather than "random".
Does one outcome influence the next? I.E. Is it less than random? Maybe. Perhaps. I don't know. Then again, I don't care. I say this based upon nothing other than a wish to not engage that part of the argument.
Assuming there IS an influence, good luck with coming up with a procedure for tracking it and exploiting it.
DJTeddyBear, did you test for randomness or not? That is the issue. No one is trying to have an argument, but I just want to know if people who played e-craps tested the game for randomness.
So does the computer via software instruct the generator to shake the same amount of time for each?
Did you try to time the amount of shakes? etc, etc.
If you didn't collect the MOST BASIC data, then you are just offering an opinion.
If you recall, you stated: "At that point, there is on huge bounce, with very unpredictable results. {note bold for emphasis}
So that is just your effen opinion. The bottomline is YOU DON'T KNOW SH*T!
I stopped playing them as they aged and started having issues and casinos stopped paying points or trimmed them down to 2x odds. One casino refused to pay me on an obvious winner because the camera failed to read the dice properly and the machine locked up. They called it a machine malfunction and laughed when I asked them if any logical person could argue that the dice said a different number than I claimed. I stopped playing the game and at that casino after that. We were talking about $20 they obviously owed me and they refused to pay it.
Back in May of last year my wife and I saw one of those bubble craps in a downtown casino and decided to try. We each stuck a 20 in and away we went. 2 hrs. later my wife ticketed out for 480 (I won 60). She played almost exclusively the field and the 2 and 12 (mostly 12). I have never seen so many 12s in my life. By the time we were finished, there were no seats left and about 20 people standing behind my wife watching her play (due to us laughing our asses off).
The next day the same thing happened in a Boulder Strip casino and then again at a different downtown casino (but not as much as the 1st time we played). Several 40+ rolls in there also. It seemed that you could wait for a flood of come-out reds and then the big roll would happen.
I should mention that we were skinned a few times also. Me for 20, but my wife for 100 twice (chasing that damn 12). I don't know if anyone else noticed but after the longer rolls (15+) when the 7 finally came it seemed that the thing would miss-pop. As soon as we saw the miss-pop we knew it would be a 7. Not 1 time did it miss-pop on a different number. We ended up probably 500+ all together on the trip. Can't wait to get back to Vegas.
Sorry for the long post, I got excited.
Quote: bbvk05Why illegally rig an already rigged game?
Right. If anything is not random, it is a failure of the creators to generate data that is hard enough to predict.
But rigged? No, it doesn't need to be rigged MORE it is rigged by definition.
This meme reminds me of the debate over whether the casinos are using biased dice. I hope that debate has been put to bed.
But I will admit that last night after having dice changed on me at the Silverton, I had my set wrong for a moment, and I could feel a ridge between the two dice.
I told the stick man, "these dice don't feel right." And he (Stan at the time) said, "there's nothing wrong with the dice" without even glancing over or anything.
I thought to myself that it wouldn't make any difference over the short haul anyway, but I felt like if those dice got put up in the caliper, you'd measure differently on the three measurements for sure.
But in general, I don't believe the casinos are doing that stuff on purpose. There are absolutely bad dice that get through. The caliper they use at the Silverton is a relic of ancient Egypt (or so it seems).
If a set of dice is not going to produce random results then it's obviously going to produce results that any player can take advantage of. If somehow dice could be designed that would roll more 7's then you just load up the pass line. I don't see any way that anyone can explain how gaffed dice could possibly benefit the casino's bottom line unless they know for a fact that every player was betting the right way 100% of time time or the dark side 100% of the time.
The only question would be, "How do you know if the dice are gaffed?" and in response I'd ask, "How does the casino know what numbers you're going to bet?"
Quote: TheNightflyThe idea of casinos introducing rigged or gaffed dice into the game to keep players from winning makes no sense at all.
If a set of dice is not going to produce random results then it's obviously going to produce results that any player can take advantage of. If somehow dice could be designed that would roll more 7's then you just load up the pass line. I don't see any way that anyone can explain how gaffed dice could possibly benefit the casino's bottom line unless they know for a fact that every player was betting the right way 100% of time time or the dark side 100% of the time.
The only question would be, "How do you know if the dice are gaffed?" and in response I'd ask, "How does the casino know what numbers you're going to bet?"
Well, I agree with your idea. But introducing dice that favor 6's could result in a universal increase in the house edge. It is just unnecessary because the tables are already killers.
Also, it doesn't seem possible to bias dice in a way that kills odds bets. There is no single number that you could favor that would create more sevens. You'd have to have a set of dice with different numbers biased. This kind of system would be quite hard to maintain when players pick from 5 dice.
Especially to ward off unwanted , advantaged or lucky players with high winnings or long streaks-
Unbealivably done and flawlessley.
I´m sorry to break the news, it is question is on so many forums and no one dares say the truth.. or it is censured.. I built 3 casinos and have worked tightly with owners.. they mentioned it but after being an advantaged player at competeing casinos of those I built.. well I must let you all know the truth, the cards can be put at random shuffle or in ORDER shuffle. In Order Shuffle cards can be read. And in my case being an advantaged player as well ,I am not welcomed at most casinos, at those casinos especially those run By Cirsa - Codere they will Order the cards as soon as I hit their tables.The dealers know me and or pit bosses do and will delay the game a bit then the action begins giving dealer constant 20 and 21 and blackjack or extended 2,3,5,4,2,3,2 amazing but true I just laugh and smile and give their cameras and dealers a thubs up and play Baccarat or Poker. They know that I know what they do and acceot it and so do I I don't play the house on those games, I can only do it at casinos where I am not known. I somethimes outrack them playing 2 or three hands and back to one hand but they will win, the stacking is made so perfectly and at the end that it wil beat all the changes made or disorientations I have tried on the machines , like playing 2 and 3 hand and back to one hand.. impossible still. Confromted one day I told them I knew and the said .. ¨so if you know just dont play us in Blackjack or the house stick to holdem Poker and do not challenge us..¨ , they told me. All CSM can do it but the One to Six is the best at it.
Quote: JESUS1YES!,
Hey Jesus !!!
Welcome back dude. Did you have a good Easter.
Well I guess the dying bit sucked, but you are proof that resurrection* works, so it's not all bad.
After all, you just resurrected 3 threads, one of which had been dead for seven whole years.
And all three replies remarkably similar.
*Or was it reincarnation?
