Failed the Wizard

With e-Craps, you can review the rolls of the last 10 'shooters.'

Man, ALOT of 3 and 11 rolled.
so i started putting $1 on the 3 and 11 every time i win $.
after $10 and missing the 3 twice, i stopped.

it was frustrating missing the 3 plus I failed the Wizard's Motto:
"Was the bet a good bet?"

10% House edge is NOT a good bet.
Plus I'm chasing patterns in random dice rolls.

Flogging myself w/wet noodles for penance...

100x, you are on the right track. Take a notebook and start writing down all the numbers that keep coming up on the e-craps machine. You'll notice most of the machines follow the same sets of numbers and a clear pattern. Don't focus on the Math; focus on the numbers that keep coming up at certain periods of the game.

I'll leave you with this; I've never hit on so many 2's and 12's in my entire life!

Quote: CrapsForever

100x, you are on the right track. Take a notebook and start writing down all the numbers that keep coming up on the e-craps machine. You'll notice most of the machines follow the same sets of numbers and a clear pattern. Don't focus on the Math; focus on the numbers that keep coming up at certain periods of the game.

Big disagreement from me. Any game that gets approved from the Gaming Control Board I trust to be programmed properly where each outcome of each die has a 1 in 6 chance and the two dice are independent. To do otherwise would violate NRS 14.040. If anybody has evidence that the game is performing otherwise please post your log of rolls.

Meanwhile, my penance is five push-ups for every time you bet the 3 and/or 11.

I would tend to agree... also the company would just suffer too much if bias discovered.
The only thing I could think of would be electronic interference at a particular installation or some sort of "expectation bias" from the observer.

You can lead a horse to the water but you can't make it drink...

Quote: Wizard

Big disagreement from me. Any game that gets approved from the Gaming Control Board I trust to be programmed properly where each outcome of each die has a 1 in 6 chance and the two dice are independent. To do otherwise would violate NRS 14.040. If anybody has evidence that the game is performing otherwise please post your log of rolls.

Meanwhile, my penance is five push-ups for every time you bet the 3 and/or 11.

As a programmer, you are aware we don't have random generators, we instead have pseudo-random generators deemed sufficiently random by the regulators. Last year the Indian casinos fought against the inclusion of the autocorrelation (or serial correlation) test and run tests included for Class II devices.

There is a big assumpstion about the robustness of these software programs.

Also, there was a post about autocorrelation in roulette on APHeat.net and E. Jacobson stated something to the effect that "autoorrelation in roulette is bogus" and that casinos don't take autocorrelation seriously. Unfortunately, E. Jacobson removed his comment. The point is many of old Class II machines were NEVER tested for specific aspects of randomness and YET these SAME machines had been deemed sufficiently random by regulators. As you know, you can't have autocorrelation and randomness at the same time.

My point is you can write a program that the each outcome of each die in 1in 6, but you may still have autocorrelation because people don't test for autocorrelation.

Ardent,

this e-Craps machine has real dice.
all chips/betting is by touchscreen but the dice is real and it rolls itself.
i see the dice under a clear plastic dome.

When they make these games there is always a house advantage..no reason to cheat when your going to win it all anyway.

Craps itself is a rather simple game..... there is a house advantage on every bet out there with the exception of the
pass line come out roll bet, and the come bet flat toss.

If you have 5 bets on the table you have 5 different contracts with the casino, each of them carries a house advantage
for ....them..... but unlike many games the house advantage on each and every bet can be known to the players...
think about that, they tell you bet a hard 8 and we are taking 9.09% bet a hard 10 and it is 11.11 bet a big red and it
is 16.67% and the great iron cross....1.52 on the 6, 1.52 on the 8, 5.56 on the field.

Which one of you would place your money in the bank if they indicated ok we will watch it and only take 10% .... each day.

Yet we all have seen millions lost on craps tables on these bets....

There is no way to beat the table unless you control the dice, and there is no way to beat the table even if you control the
dice but dont control the way you bet.

The only system that needs to be controlled, is the one that operates between your ears.

Dicesitter

Quote: Ardent1

The point is many of old Class II machines were NEVER tested for specific aspects of randomness and YET these SAME machines had been deemed sufficiently random by regulators. As you know, you can't have autocorrelation and randomness at the same time.

In my opinion class II games are rather silly and not very relevant to this topic. Nevertheless, I'd be interested to hear directly from Eliot about his point on the topic of autocorrelation.

Quote: 100xOdds

i see the dice under a clear plastic dome.

I'm still confused about what game we're actually talking about. Are we talking about what many call "bubble craps"? If so, is the theory that the dice are unequally weighted or somehow correlated?

Quote: CrapsForever

100x, you are on the right track. Take a notebook and start writing down all the numbers that keep coming up on the e-craps machine. You'll notice most of the machines follow the same sets of numbers and a clear pattern. Don't focus on the Math; focus on the numbers that keep coming up at certain periods of the game.

I'll leave you with this; I've never hit on so many 2's and 12's in my entire life!

Your position is that the machines intentionally give players an edge on some bets in a mad scheme to take pass line bets faster?