The Great Debate: To Press or Not To Press....
When I'm at the table, everyone is always pressing their bets on a hot roll...
I have started doing it also...but then I thought about it...does it really make a difference in the long run?
ie: I usually buy the point for $30 for $1 vig (on the win)...if I'm shooting, I'll make a MINIMUM line bet and just give that as a dealer tip
I usually go like this, as points get made:
$30 -> $50 -> $90 (three people buying the point for $30 each, as to only pay $3 vig instead of $4) -> $150 (again, 3 people so it's only $6 rather than $7) -> $210/$225 (three people for $70/$75 so $9 vig rather than $11)
The part that hurts are the PSO people, and the people who only make 1 pass, as I'm pressing back my winnings and then some of my original...
I was thinking of just going $30, and never pressing (just keeping it at $30 and collecting always)
If you win the first bet and start pressing immediately, you pay the casino your 1st bet and part of what you won on that first bet when you lose.
If you pay yourself first when you win and bet the same amount on your 2nd bet and lose, you still have the original amount you bet and part of the amount you won.
PAY YOURSELF FIRST.
A very conservative play would be,
Collect...Press...Collect...Press...Collect...Press...etc.
Quote: TIMSPEEDMan, this has to be one of the most debated things....
When I'm at the table, everyone is always pressing their bets on a hot roll...
I have started doing it also...but then I thought about it...does it really make a difference in the long run?
ie: I usually buy the point for $30 for $1 vig (on the win)...if I'm shooting, I'll make a MINIMUM line bet and just give that as a dealer tip
I usually go like this, as points get made:
$30 -> $50 -> $90 (three people buying the point for $30 each, as to only pay $3 vig instead of $4) -> $150 (again, 3 people so it's only $6 rather than $7) -> $210/$225 (three people for $70/$75 so $9 vig rather than $11)
The part that hurts are the PSO people, and the people who only make 1 pass, as I'm pressing back my winnings and then some of my original...
I was thinking of just going $30, and never pressing (just keeping it at $30 and collecting always)
My experience has been that pressing works for me.
I usually get at least one really good roll during a craps session. Good roll being defined as one where a lot of box numbers (4,5,6,8,9,10) are rolled.
Let's just take the simple case of an 8 that gets rolled 6 times during this good roll.
-Assume Flat betting Place 6 , betting $30.
You get paid $35 x 6 (times) = $210 - $30(bet on table) = $180 profit
-Assume EXTREME PRESSING (almost parlaying) -starting with $30 bet
1st hit - get paid $35, so press bet to $60 , $5 in bank
2nd hit - get paid $70, press bet to $120 , $10 goes into bank - bank now +$15
3rd hit - get paid $140, press bet to $240, $20 goes into bank - bank now +$35
4th hit - get paid $280, press bet to $480, $40 goes into bank - bank now +$75
5th hit - get paid $560, press bet to $960, $80 goes into bank - bank now +$155
6th hit - get paid $1120, press bet to $1920, $160 goes into bank - bank now +$315
7 out - you lose $1920 that was on the table, $30 of it was the original bet, so $315-$30 = $285 profit
- Assume my typical pressing - starting with $30 bet
1st hit - get paid $35, press to $60 , $5 in bank
2nd hit - get paid $70 , press to $90 , $40 in bank, bank now +$45
3rd hit - get paid $105, press to $120, $75 in bank, bank now +$120
4th hit - get paid $140, press to $240, $20 in bank, bank now +$140
5th hit - get paid $280, press to $300, $220 in bank, bank now +$360
6th hit - get paid $350, press to $600, $50 in bank, bank now +$410
7 out - I lose $600 on the table, $30 was original bet, so $410-$30 = $380 profit
So, on a GOOD roll, where one number got hit six times:
the flat bettor lost the least on the 7 out ($30), but only profited $180.
the parlay presser lost the most on the 7 out ( $1920), but profited $285.
My press strategy lost about half on the 7 out ($600), but profited the most at $380.
But note what would have happened with one more 6 rolled. The parlay bettor would have been paid $2,240. At some point, even the most insane amongst us will take one of those big pays. I personally would take it to $2400, and then keep pressing it in units of $600 or $1200. That way I am till banking over $1000 each hit. Yet if the shooter keeps repeating, you can easily get that bet up to $4200, getting paid $4,900 if it rolls one more time..........
Yaz gots to pay to play, but if yous playing at the right time, yous gets to win.........
Pressing works great - if the number you just pressed gets hit again !
You have just paid for the press when it gets hit. Of course, the problem is you will ALWAYS lose your last press, unless you don't press every hit.
IT's like the ALL IN move in no limit HE poker. It works great every time, but the last one. The last one usually knocks you out of the game.
I guess it would be interesting to see how many times a shooter rolls one of the box numbers at least 6 times, before they 7 out, although in my pressing scheme at the 4th hit I have made almost the same amount of profit as the flat betting does at 6 hits.
Looks like I have a new SIM to code in WinCraps.
Each shooter will be 1 game.
Count how many Place bet (4,5,6,8,9,10) numbers are hit (not active on come out rolls) by the shooter before a 7 out.
Run 10,000 games and see how many games have at least 6 hits on any one of the box numbers.
I am not saying this is the best way to play, or that it is a way to win. It is high variance though, and can fill your rack when you hit a long roll. You will also see a lot of YOUR money go back to the casino when the 7 out comes.
Quote: TIMSPEEDMan, this has to be one of the most debated things....
When I'm at the table, everyone is always pressing their bets on a hot roll...
I have started doing it also...but then I thought about it...does it really make a difference in the long run?
Your total loss in the long run will be your total amount bet times the house edge.
So, if you press after each win, you bet a lot more than if you just bet the minimum each time, so, yeah, you lose more (ie, it makes a difference in the long term).
On the other hand, if you adjust for this by starting with a lower bet amount, so your total amount bet is the same, then no, it makes no difference in the long term.
For example, say that you usually bet $30 on 6 and 8, leave it up until it loses, and never press. You lose about 1.5% per resolution on average. Your average number of resolutions is something less than 2 per number, so you are losing somewhere around $1.50 or $1.75 per shooter (estimate on my part; take it with a grain of salt)
Now, say that you decide that you are going to press after each hit. The problem is that you are going to be betting a lot more (how much more depends on what you press to). As a result, you will lose significantly more in the long run... let's say, closer to $3 per shooter on average. So, if you want to bring this back down, you can just lower your initial bet and start with, say, $18 on 6 and 8, and press on each hit. Now you have lowered your long-term losses back to what it was when you were flat-betting $18.
In other words, if you want to press on each hit, but not lose more in the long run, start with smaller bets and press from there.
The real question is, does pressing make you enjoy the game more? You are playing a -EV game so you need to maximize you entertainment value. If it's not entertaining, you are just giving your money away for nothing.
If I have bets inside - and a 5 hits, most will press the 5. I like to spread the press across the inside. It makes a double 5 pay less, but I have a much better chance of getting pay back on my press.
Quote: slackyhackyI think my pressing stategy works well - I haven't seen anyone press the way I do though.
If I have bets inside - and a 5 hits, most will press the 5. I like to spread the press across the inside. It makes a double 5 pay less, but I have a much better chance of getting pay back on my press.
I do that sometimes. I get a lot of strange comments from dealers. "I don't know why you are pressing the 6; you haven't hit one yet". I find this amusing but I don't say anything.
I don't bet the 5 and 9 though, because the HE is horrible (the places I play don't let you buy for vig on the win only, and placing is a 4% HE). Of course if anyone at the table asks why I only bet the even numbers, I say that it's because odd numbers are unlucky.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYour total loss in the long run will be your total amount bet times the house edge.
So, if you press after each win, you bet a lot more than if you just bet the minimum each time, so, yeah, you lose more (ie, it makes a difference in the long term).
On the other hand, if you adjust for this by starting with a lower bet amount, so your total amount bet is the same, then no, it makes no difference in the long term.
For example, say that you usually bet $30 on 6 and 8, leave it up until it loses, and never press. You lose about 1.5% per resolution on average. Your average number of resolutions is something less than 2 per number, so you are losing somewhere around $1.50 or $1.75 per shooter (estimate on my part; take it with a grain of salt)
Now, say that you decide that you are going to press after each hit. The problem is that you are going to be betting a lot more (how much more depends on what you press to). As a result, you will lose significantly more in the long run... let's say, closer to $3 per shooter on average. So, if you want to bring this back down, you can just lower your initial bet and start with, say, $18 on 6 and 8, and press on each hit. Now you have lowered your long-term losses back to what it was when you were flat-betting $18.
In other words, if you want to press on each hit, but not lose more in the long run, start with smaller bets and press from there.
The real question is, does pressing make you enjoy the game more? You are playing a -EV game so you need to maximize you entertainment value. If it's not entertaining, you are just giving your money away for nothing.
When you are pressing you are exposing more money to the HE, and the expected donation to the house is greater. But is your 'loss' really greater? Greater than what? If you are pressing, when you are winning, you are winning more money, than if you were not pressing. So yes, you expose more money to the HE, but you have more money to expose because you are pressing.
So it is very possible that the player will 'lose' way more money to the casino, while at the same time, they will walk out with more money in their pocket, all due to pressing. So has pressing caused the player to lose more ? More than they would have walked out without pressing? Can't say that
Quote: RaleighCrapsWhen you are pressing you are exposing more money to the HE, and the expected donation to the house is greater. But is your 'loss' really greater? Greater than what? If you are pressing, when you are winning, you are winning more money, than if you were not pressing. So yes, you expose more money to the HE, but you have more money to expose because you are pressing.
So it is very possible that the player will 'lose' way more money to the casino, while at the same time, they will walk out with more money in their pocket, all due to pressing. So has pressing caused the player to lose more ? More than they would have walked out without pressing? Can't say that
In the long term, you will lose the total amount you bet times the house edge. You cannot change that by making multiple bets simultaneously, or by betting more after a win, or more after a loss, or more when you are feeling lucky, or more when the same number has hit 17 times, or more when a different number is "due". This is what the betting system crackpots don't get. The house edge is what it is, and you will lose your total volume bet times the house edge. That's all there is to it.
Quote: slackyhackyI think my pressing stategy works well - I haven't seen anyone press the way I do though.
If I have bets inside - and a 5 hits, most will press the 5. I like to spread the press across the inside. It makes a double 5 pay less, but I have a much better chance of getting pay back on my press.
For a while I was using the following press strategy for my Inside betting:
say the point is 6.
I would bet $80 Inside ($25 5/9, $30 8)
When any number hit, I would add $45 more, and press the Inside to $160 ($50 5/9 , $60 8)
When any number hit, I would add $10 more, and press the Inside to $240 ($75 5/9, $90 8)
At this point I have $80+$45+$10 = $135 Invested
I will get paid $105 on any Inside number.
I played that way for quite some time, but you need shooters to make 4 numbers, and too often I would end up $125 or $135 down.
Plus, I decided I would rather buy the 4 and 10, and not play the Inside quite so hard, so this press went the way of the dodo
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceIn the long term, you will lose the total amount you bet times the house edge. You cannot change that by making multiple bets simultaneously, or by betting more after a win, or more after a loss, or more when you are feeling lucky, or more when the same number has hit 17 times, or more when a different number is "due". This is what the betting system crackpots don't get. The house edge is what it is, and you will lose your total volume bet times the house edge. That's all there is to it.
I agree 100% with this statement.
What I was mildly objecting to before is how the term lose is being used. It needs to be defined.
If you are asking does the player risk losing more money to the house by pressing? The answer is of course yes. But you have to say risk, because there is no guarantee you are going to lose the HE times your bets. It is highly likely, but not a given.
However, if the player is asking will I end up losing more if I press, I assume the player is asking will I leave with less of my buy-in because I am pressing?
The answer to this question is, not necessarily. Yes, the house will probably get more because of the higher action, but the player will have more to wager because they have won more on their pressed bets.
My press schedule looks like this:
4 and 10 buy for 25.
1st hit takes that number to 75
2nd hit takes that number to 200
3rd hit takes that number back to 25
It is a daunting task to get three hits on 4 or 10 but it does happen.
Quote: RaleighCrapsI agree 100% with this statement.
What I was mildly objecting to before is how the term lose is being used. It needs to be defined.
You specified "long term" in your initial statement. In the long term, you will lose more money if you press. This is because you are betting more. The fact that you are betting money that you just won doesn't really matter. In the long term, you can substitute EV for actual results, without too much of a difference.
Quote:If you are asking does the player risk losing more money to the house by pressing? The answer is of course yes. But you have to say risk, because there is no guarantee you are going to lose the HE times your bets. It is highly likely, but not a given.
However, if the player is asking will I end up losing more if I press, I assume the player is asking will I leave with less of my buy-in because I am pressing?
The answer to this question is, not necessarily. Yes, the house will probably get more because of the higher action, but the player will have more to wager because they have won more on their pressed bets.
But none of this matters in the long term. All this does is change the distribution of your sessions. By pressing you are turning small wins into small losses in exchange for the occasional monster win. At the end of the decade you can just add up all the money you bet, multiply by the house edge, and you should be down about that amount. So, to see how a strategy does in the long term, all you need to do is figure out the average amount bet per roll, and multiply by the house edge per roll, and multiply by the expected number of rolls. That's how much you should lose. (you can replace "rolls" with "resolutions", as long as you do it for all terms)
If i start with say a $30 6 & 8 and pass bet, i will wait till i get 2 times my original spread
bets before i press.
The problem i have seen is so many people press the first win on all place bets, then try to
take the second hit. That looks good on a long roll, however if you are betting on ramdom
throwers the average hand is about 6 rolls... you dont to be real smart to see that pressing
a couple of the first hits makes you a loser on the vast majority of hands.
The real question is simple, and there is no way to get around it, are you a gambler
or do you want to be a tough out for the casino.
dicesitter
Quote: TIMSPEEDMan, this has to be one of the most debated things....
When I'm at the table, everyone is always pressing their bets on a hot roll...
I have started doing it also...but then I thought about it...does it really make a difference in the long run?
i've asked the same question and got conflicting advice.
on one hand, you press to ride the wave of positive variance.
on another, someone ran a sim on wincraps with either doubling up to busting with bankroll = 5x(?) what you put on the table (on avg).
Flat betting had a slightly better chance of succeeding than pressing.
thus the answer is shrug...
Quote: dicesitterThere is nothing wrong with getting more money on the table, as long as it is their money.
Once you win, it's not their money any more, it's yours. It's only their money while it's still in their chip stacks.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceOnce you win, it's not their money any more, it's yours. It's only their money while it's still in their chip stacks.
Indeed. When I feel like I'm slipping into that mode of thought, I work my way around that mindset by taking the winnings, inserting it into my rack, organizing if necessary, then making the bet. Sure, it's kind of ridiculous, but it makes me conscious of how much I have out at a given time.
$6 6 Press to $12 take $1
$12 6 take $14
$12 6 Press to $18 take $8
$18 6 take $21
$18 6 Press to $30 take $9
$30 6 Take $35 thereafter
Quote: JamieVI used to bet the inside as well. I mostly stick to buying the 4 and 10 now like you.
My press schedule looks like this:
4 and 10 buy for 25.
1st hit takes that number to 75
2nd hit takes that number to 200
3rd hit takes that number back to 25
It is a daunting task to get three hits on 4 or 10 but it does happen.
That is why I like to Lay 10 or 4, and martingale the losses. As you say, it is a daunting task to get 4 10's in a row, but when it does happen, it HURTS!
There were only four sessions over more than 15 years of playing craps when an initial outlay of either 52/54 across or 130/135 across plus full odds on the pass line (10 or 25 flat bet) led to a net win of $5,000 or more.
The reality is, getting hot rolls with big presses are very few and sometimes many months between.
Quote: AlanMendelsonBack in the day when I would place all the numbers and press on a hot roll, I started to press only after my initial outlay was back in my rack, usually from at least one passline win plus a couple of numbers. then I would press from the inside moving out.
There were only four sessions over more than 15 years of playing craps when an initial outlay of either 52/54 across or 130/135 across plus full odds on the pass line (10 or 25 flat bet) led to a net win of $5,000 or more.
The reality is, getting hot rolls with big presses are very few and sometimes many months between.
How long was your typical session?
The reason I ask is I have seen a dozen rolls that would have netted a 5k win, if I had been playing 130 across at the time. I hit on only one of them for the 5k. The rest were 2-3k. I am trying to determine if I have already seen all of the big rolls that I will see in my lifetime craps play.
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/goatcabin/blog/#post38
There's no "better". If you're lucky, pressing wins more; if you're not, pressing loses more. When your press, you risk giving back a win, hence you are likely to have more losing sessions than a flat bettor. Any system that involves changing the bet amount, pressing or Martingaling, puts a premium on the order of wins and losses. In any given session the bettor whose system is more "in rhythm" with the dice will win more/lose less. Changing the bet amount increases variance; betting more increases the expected loss.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Quote: AlanMendelson
The reality is, getting hot rolls with big presses are very few and sometimes many months between.
Hey, MoneyLA, long time!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Nice observation.Quote: AlanMendelsonBack in the day when I would place all the numbers and press on a hot roll, I started to press only after my initial outlay was back in my rack, usually from at least one passline win plus a couple of numbers. then I would press from the inside moving out.
There were only four sessions over more than 15 years of playing craps when an initial outlay of either 52/54 across or 130/135 across plus full odds on the pass line (10 or 25 flat bet) led to a net win of $5,000 or more.
The reality is, getting hot rolls with big presses are very few and sometimes many months between.
Alan Shank, here is a good sim idea for you.
The wait time distribution (how many shooters), required bankroll and bankroll gain levels reached
for the pass/345X odds and 52/54 across or 130/135 across craps player to score a $5k win... or actually hit different win levels $1k, $2k etc.
Of course, some players would want just inside #s first and after some wins to go to the 4&10 too.
RC has posted his pressing method recently and AlanM could be a bit more specific on exactly how he presses once he gets his initial investment back.
Maybe you have sims close to this already run??
If you do, how about getting with Steen and adding a few sim results pages at WinCraps along with a few auto-bet files, or place in your Blog for the world to see. The WinCraps site would get more craps players excited about Steen's programs and maybe sell some more registrations or even the upcoming WinCraps Pro version.
Just Food for thought.
I ate too much and I am too full to eat any more this weekend
Quote: RaleighCrapsHow long was your typical session?
The reason I ask is I have seen a dozen rolls that would have netted a 5k win, if I had been playing 130 across at the time. I hit on only one of them for the 5k. The rest were 2-3k. I am trying to determine if I have already seen all of the big rolls that I will see in my lifetime craps play.
You are no more or less likely to see a, "Big roll," in any individual trial or session regardless of how many you have seen in the past.
