crapsless(no craps) tables. continuous come-odds bets works well
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/12558-really-blew-out-my-bankroll/10/#post208697
dwm
"One more thing, continuous come-odds bets works well on crapsless(no craps) tables.
Not losing the flat bets on crap numbers often helps IF get some repeaters on the extreme outside."
Not too many threads on Crapless Craps. (Never Craps or No Crap Craps)
dwm...
care to explain "works well"
what kind of bankroll and odds do you work with?
You posted your bankroll and method for regular craps in the above post you made.
Do you have Buy bets, where you play,
on the extreme outside (2,3,11,12) where the vig is on a win only??
Here in Vegas we got 10X odds, and that is really needed for the high HE on the pass/come bets.
Let us know and discuss
for those that do not know Crapless Craps, the shooter can not "crap out" on a come out roll.
The catch is all the numbers except 7 now becomes a point and there is no don't pass/don't come bets. Just Lay bets.
Yep, 2,3,11 and 12 are now points, but one can take odds and true odds pays 3 to 1 and 6 to 1 (3,11 and 2,12)
Many players will not even know they are at a Crapless Craps table and when the dealer tells them, they say OK, and continue to play making pass/come/place bets, not knowing about the differences.
The fact is, most players are just there for a good time and don't understand (or want to understand) the math behind the game. They are there to play; math is work. This works out perfectly for the house, of course. Just open the doors and let the suckers in...
1) Don't bet the come bet or the passline bet any more than you have to
2) Find a table with commission on the win for the 2, 3, 11, and 12
3) Stick with it and don't give up .. especially if you buy only one number
4) It helps if you don't have to shoot because then you can dodge the shitty edge on the line and come
Add to that list Lay bets on 2,12 and 3,11Quote: AhighThe math on crapless is simple. To get the best deal, you need to satisfy a few conditions:
1) Don't bet the come bet or the passline bet any more than you have to
2) Find a table with commission on the win for the 2, 3, 11, and 12
3) Stick with it and don't give up .. especially if you buy only one number
4) It helps if you don't have to shoot because then you can dodge the shitty edge on the line and come
Must pay vig up front is how I always see these
Lay 2,12 edge per bet resolved: -1/121 or 0.8264%
Lay 3,11 edge per bet resolved: -1/61 or 1.6393%
I employ lay bets frequently on craps to lock in profits when I want to wrap something up that's still on the felt.
I have heard a dealer tell me they laid the 12 on crapless for a while and they finally said they couldn't do it any more.
You really want vig on the win, but here in vegas, almost NOBODY does vig on the win for ANY lay bets.
Fiesta Henderson is the only place that I know of.
Quote: AhighYou really want vig on the win, but here in vegas, almost NOBODY does vig on the win for ANY lay bets.
Every casino I've ever played at (mostly MGM properties on the strip) charges vig on the win for no 4 or no 10. I have a friend (dark-side bettor) who likes to make these bets. I will occasionally (rarely) bet them on the come-out roll when betting right-side. I'll pull them down if a point is established.
It's not as good of a bet as it seems. If I bet no 4 and no 10 for $50 each, I am really risking $50 (can't lose both bets on one roll) to win $48 on a bet that should pay even money. Ignoring pushes, I win $48 50% of the time and lose $50 50% of the time, for a house edge of 2%. That sort of puts it right on the line between a sucker bet and a decent bet, IMO. Better than the field and WAY better than placing the 5 or 9, but not as good as a line bet, placing the 6 or 8, or buying the 4 or 10.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceEvery casino I've ever played at (mostly MGM properties on the strip) charges vig on the win for no 4 or no 10. I have a friend (dark-side bettor) who likes to make these bets. I will occasionally (rarely) bet them on the come-out roll when betting right-side. I'll pull them down if a point is established.
It's not as good of a bet as it seems. If I bet no 4 and no 10 for $50 each, I am really risking $50 (can't lose both bets on one roll) to win $48 on a bet that should pay even money. Ignoring pushes, I win $48 50% of the time and lose $50 50% of the time, for a house edge of 2%. That sort of puts it right on the line between a sucker bet and a decent bet, IMO. Better than the field and WAY better than placing the 5 or 9, but not as good as a line bet, placing the 6 or 8, or buying the 4 or 10.
Actually, I once thought this before I knew better.
They actually have free 4's and 10's for the first bet. Otherwise it's Vig up front.
I have a post outlining the details.
If you ask them what is the vig on the 4 or 10, they will say "the first one is free."
It's this way for all MGM properties that I know of, including Mandalay Bay.
If you think about it, it's only a one-time 33% discount equal to $0.33 for a $40 (or smaller) lay. The only real way to take advantage of this is to do a max lay on the four or the ten and then walk after it hits paying them nothing at all (anybody tried this). Most of the time, the edge they are giving up pays itself off since they collect it when they pay you and you keep it up, and you're going to make more (and hopefully much bigger and bolder) bets that you will eventually lose. Even if you don't you will start paying vigs.
Quote: AhighActually, I once thought this before I knew better.
They actually have free 4's and 10's for the first bet. Otherwise it's Vig up front.
I'm not sure exactly what you mean by this. I only ever play to one (or zero) resolutions since I only have them up for come out rolls. However, my friend (dark-side player) likes to leave them up. He says "no 4, no 10" and tosses the dealer $100. The dealer puts $50 each on no 4 and no 10, with a lay lammer on it.
Every time a 7 hits, my friend tosses the dealer $2 (commission) and gets $50 back. This is $1 commission for each bet (each bet wins $25). If a 4 or 10 hits, one of the bets loses and my friend tosses the dealer $50 to put the bet back up. He does this until he wants to leave, at which point he takes both bets down (and gets all $100 back).
So, functionally, it is identical to vig on wins only. Every time he wins, he pays vig. He pays nothing up front, either on the first bet or to put a losing bet back up.
So, exactly, what is the difference between "first bet free, vig up front" and "vig on wins only"? It seems to act exactly the same way. Is there one case where they are different?
FWIW, we play mostly at MGM Grand, and sometimes at Aria. Rarely at NYNY.
Bill's Gambling Hall and casino has this same policy.
YMMV and there are ABSOLUTELY places that have no idea what the difference is between "first one is free" and "commission on the win." By this, I am referring to the dealers.
Earlier today, I laid a six point for $130, and when it came time to pay, it took them almost a minute to figure out the pay. The dealers would have paid me $1 less than it should have paid if I accepted the way they chose to do it, but I knew what it should have paid.
Similarly, you may not get a free lay if a dealer doesn't know the difference between "first one is free" and "commission on the win."
But I'm absolutely sure that at at least one of the places that offer the first one free, you can get a free lay if you don't keep it up.
I'm also sure that at at least one of the places, the box AND the dealers will claim there is no difference, yet that doesn't mean they are right.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceEvery casino I've ever played at (mostly MGM properties on the strip) charges vig on the win for no 4 or no 10. I have a friend (dark-side bettor) who likes to make these bets. I will occasionally (rarely) bet them on the come-out roll when betting right-side. I'll pull them down if a point is established.
This is less advantageous for lay bets than it is for buy bets, because lay bets are expected to win more often than they lose, opposite of the buy bets. Buy gets with vig rounded down and collected only on a win are pretty low HA.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Using a shooter qualifier which saves big $ on the bad spells and a big bankroll gives me a good chance.
How big a bankroll do you use at crapless?Quote: dwmIt is really not that difficult to figure, the best bet in the house is the odds bet on all the box numbers on the no craps tables as well as the regular tables.
Getting true odds(0 house edge) on the extreme outside numbers as well as the regular box numbers on the odds bet, but of course it has to be made with the minimal $5 flat bet which has a 1.4% house edge.
The 2 and 12 pay true odds of 6x, and 3 and 11 pay true odds of 3x, this is certainly not a sucker bet as someone suggested.
I am playing with $5 flat and 6x odds which gets the house edge way down below one half of one percent.
Using a shooter qualifier which saves big $ on the bad spells and a big bankroll gives me a good chance.
And the house edge on pass/come at crapless is ~5.38%. You know that right?
373/6930 = 0.053823954 or 5.382%
You are just under 1% (0.897%) with 6x odds
Here is the table for the odds and combined house edge for pass line and come in Crapless Craps
num/denom
odds num denom he HE
0 373 6930 0.053823954 5.382%
1 373 12705 0.02935852 2.936%
2 373 18480 0.020183983 2.018%
3 373 24255 0.015378273 1.538%
4 373 30030 0.012420912 1.242%
5 373 35805 0.010417539 1.042%
6 373 41580 0.008970659 0.897%
7 373 47355 0.007876676 0.788%
8 373 53130 0.007020516 0.702%
9 373 58905 0.00633223 0.633%
10 373 64680 0.005766852 0.577%
added: 10X odds on crapless craps is about equal to 2X or Full 2x odds at regular craps
Quote: dwmIt is really not that difficult to figure, the best bet in the house is the odds bet on all the box numbers on the no craps tables as well as the regular tables. Getting true odds(0 house edge) on the extreme outside numbers as well as the regular box numbers on the odds bet, but of course it has to be made with the minimal $5 flat bet which has a 1.4% house edge. The 2 and 12 pay true odds of 6x, and 3 and 11 pay true odds of 3x, this is certainly not a sucker bet as someone suggested. I am playing with $5 flat and 6x odds which gets the house edge way down below one half of one percent.
Using a shooter qualifier which saves big $ on the bad spells and a big bankroll gives me a good chance.
Ouch. Nope, even with 5x max odds, your edge is closer to playing Banker on Baccarat than even single odds on a real craps table.
The only good bets on a crapless table with 6x odds or less are buy bets with commission on the win, unless you can take the odds on someone else's line bet.
Quote: TheWizard
In my Ten Commandments of Gambling I advise that you avoid gimmicks, and Crapless Craps is an illustrated example. In this game the player can not lose a pass bet on the come out roll. If any number other than a 7 is rolled on the come out roll itbecomes the point. What you are giving up is the sure winnerof 11 on the come out roll. To the mathematically challengedit may seem a good deal, that you are only giving up 1 surewinner for 3 sure losers. The catch is that the probabilityof hitting a point of 2 or 12 is only 1/7, and theprobability of hitting a point of 3 or 11 is only 1/4. Sothe player is not gaining much on the 2, 3, and 12 sincethey will likely lose anyway, but is giving up a sure winneron 11 for only a 1/4 chance of winning. Overall the houseedge on the pass bet in crapless craps is 373/6930 =~5.382%.
Crapless craps does offer free odds of 6-1 on the 2 and12, and 3-1 on the 3 and 11. The following table shows thecombined house edge by combining the pass line and theodds:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/5/
What's really more interesting to me is the difference between buying the 12 and laying the 12 in terms of average cost per roll. The edge per roll is the same, but the cost per roll is different.
Assuming the point that goat brought up is valid (and I think it is because I've thought about it to without a sound resolution) maybe that's a good topic for a subsequent thread.
If you are going to take a bet that wins most of the time, the only time you want to pay a commission, in my humble opinion, would be to lock up some profit. That's worth paying for (to neutralize a large travelled come bet).
Making lay bets with commission on the win isn't just a bad idea because of the edge, it's also a bad idea because you have to pay the vig more frequently. Similarly, commission up front isn't that much different as the bet pays off frequently enough the difference is more minute.
Is there a measure of how good a bet is that takes this characteristic into account, or am I missing something here?
Many use EV perQuote: AhighIs there a measure of how good a bet is that takes this characteristic into account, or am I missing something here?
From Never Craps (same guy that does WinCraps)
vigs paid on a win
Here is my betting scheme: Start the new shooter with $5 pass and $10 odds. If he rolls two box numbers(4,5,6,8,9,10) after the point is established, then odds bet on the pass goes to $30. Then start come-odds betting at $30 odds and stop at two come-odds bets until get a hit. If get a hit, then continuous come odds bets until get 5 come-odds bets along with the pass-odds until the end of the hand, whether playing at regular tables or crapless.
Having $600 swings up and down during a typical 3-4 hr session thusfar after playing it for about 20 hrs total at the tables, have netted about +$700 thusfar.
Quote: BeardgoatI've played craps probably 100 times so this is a very stupid question... What is the difference between buying the 4 or 10 and placing it? If I understand correctly the buy pays better right? Why would anyone just place the 4 or 10?
The problem is that you need to bet at least $20 on buy bets to get the vig down to 5%, because they will charge you $1 vig even if you bet less than $20.
Some places you can bet $30 and still pay just $1 vig (rounded down), and some places even just collect the vig on wins, which makes it a very attractive bet, but only at that level or higher. If you place the 4/10 for $5, the payoff is $9, an HA of 6.67%.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Quote: DeMangoSo what's the ev if you can bet $35@ on the extremes with only $1 vig on win as is played in Tunica? (not all places)
For 2,12 the house edge is -1/(35*7) = -1/245 = (-0.0040816 *100 = -0.40816%) *$35 for EV = -$0.1428571
standard deviation is 2.43949 * $35 = $85.38215
after 10,000 such bets one would have only about a 55% chance of being in the red.
added: (the long way)
EV = (1/7)*209 + (6/7)*-35 = -0.142857143
HE = EV/35 = -0.0040816
For 3,11 the house edge is -1/(35*4) = -1/140 = (-0.0071429 *100 = -0.71429%) *$35 for EV = -$0.25
standard deviation is 1.71968 * $35 = $60.1888
after 10,000 such bets one would have only about a 65% chance of being in the red.
Quote: BeardgoatOk so basically if I am wagering under $20 it is better to place it and if I wager $20 or more I should buy it?
Most places it's not "better" to place it ever. They just won't ALLOW a buy until you get to the higher dollar amount.
They make tons of money letting people place the aces for $5 and paying $27. 3/35 = 8.5% edge. If you could buy it with commission on the win at $5, it would be 1/35 or 2.8% edge.
They won't let you buy it until you get to $20 at the two places I know that have commission on the win (Las Vegas Club and the Plaza).
If they would let you buy it for $10, it would already be a decent bet. But they require $20 to get the deal. IE: they are banking you don't truly have the bankroll to give them any threat with pressure. You will just lose.
They are scared of the guy who parlays 6x payday three times for a flat $3 cost though.
It's the exposure of some parlay action that they are fearful of. You can hit them QUICK and CHEAP if you get some repeaters.
Quote: DeMangoSo what's the ev if you can bet $35@ on the extremes with only $1 vig on win as is played in Tunica? (not all places)
I get 0.95% HA, $49.03 SD, 0.71 skew per bet.
For 60 decisions, ev is -$20, SD $379.75, p(break even or better) .479
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Agree. Your values would be for a $35 Buy4 and Buy10. (-1/105 edge)Quote: goatcabinI get 0.95% HA, $49.03 SD, 0.71 skew per bet.
Using the binomial dist in ExcelQuote: goatcabinFor 60 decisions, ev is -$20, SD $379.75, p(break even or better) .479
Cheers,
Alan Shank
0.4396862 probability of a net win of $84 or more
=1- BINOMDIST(20,60,3/9,TRUE)
(can not actually break even at 60 bets)
21 win (*$69) and 39 (*-$35) loss = $84 net
20 win (*$69) and 40 (*-$35) loss = -$20 net
Bankroll swings of $104
still a nice ev/sd ratio
Nice.Quote: dwmI am now using a $1600 day session bankroll for $5 line and $30 odds
Here is my betting scheme:
Start the new shooter with $5 pass and $10 odds.
If he rolls two box numbers(4,5,6,8,9,10) after the point is established, then odds bet on the pass goes to $30.
Then start come-odds betting at $30 odds and stop at two come-odds bets until get a hit.
If get a hit, then continuous come odds bets until get 5 come-odds bets along with the pass-odds until the end of the hand, whether playing at regular tables or crapless.
Having $600 swings up and down during a typical 3-4 hr session thus far after playing it for about 20 hrs total at the tables, have netted about +$700 thusfar.
I bet you kick yourself every now and then after a point is set when the next 2 rolls are like
4,4 or 10,10 and you had no come bet made.
But smile when the 7out is one of those rolls.
That is come betting
Good Luck and Have Fun!
Looks like you are doing both
you can start at my web site crapless-dont.com and follow the links to the pass-line-odds document and to my information page
you can download the demo and play on-line 20 diferent games all played world-wide, including 5 variants on crapless craps
there are 2 additional downloads that are cool, one is called the rollstation, the other is called 3-dd -> 1:38.
i wrote all of the code, i swear it is all safe, and The Wizard has seen it run in person.
your feedback on crapless-dont games is appreciated.
marty
Now waiting to make a come bet has it's advantages and disadvantages too.Quote: dwmHere is my betting scheme: Start the new shooter with $5 pass and $10 odds.
If he rolls two box numbers(4,5,6,8,9,10) after the point is established, then odds bet on the pass goes to $30.
Then start come-odds betting at $30 odds and stop at two come-odds bets until get a hit.
If get a hit, then continuous come odds bets until get 5 come-odds bets along with the pass-odds until the end of the hand, whether playing at regular tables or crapless.
You wait for 2 box#s then start to bet the come. Then stop and wait for a hit before you continue (qualifying the shooter)
It would be interesting to see, per shooter, how many wins you do get compared to just betting the next two rolls.
Sim data shows, per shooter, when betting max 2 come bets right after the point is established
Event: Probability
Seven out with a Pass only: 20%
Seven out with a Pass and one Come: 13.1%
Seven out immediately after establishing a Pass and 2 Comes: 5.8%
Seven out at some point after establishing a Pass and 2 Comes but no repeats: 5.6%
Seven out with no hits, overall: 44.5%
Seven out after at least one hit: 55.5%
expanded
at least 2 hits: 0.34635
at least 3 hits: 0.21558
at least 4 hits: 0.13554
at least 5 hits: 0.08585
at least 6 hits: 0.05471
at least 7 hits: 0.03424
at least 8 hits: 0.02188
at least 9 hits: 0.01384
at least 10 hits: 0.00858
a "hit" being an odds win
(natural wins were not counted in this group)
Well, the math does say, as does actual dice roll distributions,
the roll that has the highest probability for a shooter to 7out on is roll #3 (includes the come out roll)
A shooter can not 7out on the first roll. But could go home... or pass the dice on a crap out.
The top 5 7out rolls are in order
Roll #
3
2
4
5
6
50.28% of shooters 7out by the 6th roll.
Looks to be the median at 6 rolls
And almost a coin toss it is that the next shooter will last longer than 6 rolls
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/gambling/1886-world-records-in-craps/4/#post154846
Quote: 7crapsUnderstandable.
Well, the math does say, as does actual dice roll distributions,
the roll that has the highest probability for a shooter to 7out on is roll #3 (includes the come out roll)
A shooter can not 7out on the first roll. But could go home... or pass the dice on a crap out.
The top 5 7out rolls are in order
Roll #
3
2
4
5
6
50.28% of shooters 7out by the 6th roll.
Looks to be the median at 6 rolls
And almost a coin toss it is that the next shooter will last longer than 6 rolls
This is a must read, and makes me want to cry, all at the same time..........
do not cry, just know what to expect.
Live not by superstitions or false hopes...
Take Ahigh's latest 174 rolls.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/12600-dice-control/21/#post211378
20 hands.
Here is a list of the length of each hand
9
6
4
10
4
16
3
4
2
2
36
19
4
13
2
7
7
2
14
10
looks like this
can one make money from these hands?? Hope so.
math says a 50% probability a shooter will 7out by the 6th roll
count them.
How many did not get past 6 rolls??
10.
Just a coincidence.
math says 68% of shooters do not get past nine rolls before a 7out (about 1 in 3 do) so EV: 6.4
how many got past 9?
count them
7
Just another coincidence
OK...
1 in 10 hands get past 17 rolls
enough, Just another coincidence
His 36 roller happens on average 1 in 60 shooters (or hands)
F**k the math
do not forget about variance
random results (distribution) from random events
cor = come out roll.
Example: hand#1 cor 5 (1st roll set 5 as the point), next roll was a 4 etc.
hand# 1
cor 5 4 8h 3 8 6 9 3 7 out
hand# 1 9 rolls
hand# 2
cor 9 10 5 9 win
cor 4h 7 out
hand# 2 6 rolls
hand# 3
cor 9 11 5 7 out
hand# 3 4 rolls
hand# 4
cor 8 9 4h 10 6 4h 9 6 6h 7 out
hand# 4 10 rolls
hand# 5
cor 9 8 6h 7 out
hand# 5 4 rolls
hand# 6
cor 10 3 11 11 8 8 5 4h 11 8 8 9 6 8 4h 7 out
hand# 6 16 rolls
hand# 7
cor 6h 11 7 out
hand# 7 3 rolls
hand# 8
cor 8h 6h 5 7 out
hand# 8 4 rolls
hand# 9
cor 8 7 out
hand# 9 2 rolls
hand# 10
cor 5 7 out
hand# 10 2 rolls
hand# 11
cor 9 11 4 8 5 9 win
cor 11 win
cor 5 9 8 5 win
cor 7 win
cor 9 5 5 8 11 9 win
cor 9 8 11 5 3 12 4 8 4 4h 9 win
cor 3 crap out
cor 3 crap out
cor 7 win
cor 8 5 10h 7 out
hand# 11 36 rolls
hand# 12
cor 7 win
cor 8 6 9 9 9 3 6 8 win
cor 6 12 5 9 5 8h 5 6 win
cor 8h 7 out
hand# 12 19 rolls
hand# 13
cor 9 9 win
cor 5 7 out
hand# 13 4 rolls
hand# 14
cor 10 5 6 9 8 5 9 5 10h win
cor 3 crap out
cor 6 12 7 out
hand# 14 13 rolls
hand# 15
cor 6 7 out
hand# 15 2 rolls
hand# 16
cor 5 8 5 win
cor 7 win
cor 9 4h 7 out
hand# 16 7 rolls
hand# 17
cor 3 crap out
cor 8h 9 6 8 win
cor 5 7 out
hand# 17 7 rolls
hand# 18
cor 8 7 out
hand# 18 2 rolls
hand# 19
cor 7 win
cor 8 6 6 3 8 win
cor 7 win
cor 5 5 win
cor 12 crap out
cor 8 8 win
cor 10 7 out
hand# 19 14 rolls
hand# 20
cor 7 win
cor 6 9 8 8 6 win
cor 7 win
cor 9 10h 7 out
hand# 20 10 rolls
Quote: 7crapsAgree. Your values would be for a $35 Buy4 and Buy10. (-1/105 edge)
Using the binomial dist in Excel
0.4396862 probability of a net win of $84 or more
=1- BINOMDIST(20,60,3/9,TRUE)
(can not actually break even at 60 bets)
21 win (*$69) and 39 (*-$35) loss = $84 net
20 win (*$69) and 40 (*-$35) loss = -$20 net
Bankroll swings of $104
still a nice ev/sd ratio
Very true. My figures were just calculated based on ev and SD. Of course, they are theoretical and approximate, not based on a sim or binom. For situations like this, where the outcomes are few and have a large range, using the binom is definitely superior. I ran a couple of sims of 50,000 sessions each using different initial seeds; one came out -.0093 HA, the other -.0102, around 45% winning sessions.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Quote: 7crapsHis 36 roller happens on average 1 in 60 shooters
F**k the math
do not forget about variance
7craps, thanks for taking the time to analyze these rolls. It's pretty cool to see this graph.
You should think about using gnuplot for your graphs if you are willing to come up to speed on it and I can automate them into my software.
If you're willing and interested to do this, maybe we could even collaborate a bit.
All my code is actually in perl, but I spit out gnuplot files and create graphs and then I use imagemagick to turn the multiple images into a single image and then throw it up on the screen. This happens in real time as I am playing and entering in roll data from a bluetooth keyboard on the rail.
It would be awesome to have charts like this chart for further analysis in my software if you can convert it to gnu plot.
My software runs on MacOS and on Windows 7. That's why I chose gnuplot to make it portable. It's also possible (though not super easy) to get gnuplot to work on iOS devices some time in the future.
But that's an awesome chart. If nothing else, I like how you gave such a great visual demonstration for him.
Yes, as you know, many will just be stuck on the house edge and never move on from there, not even considering variance or the standard deviation of the house edge from N such bets made.Quote: goatcabinVery true.
My figures were just calculated based on ev and SD.
Of course, they are theoretical and approximate, not based on a sim or binom.
For situations like this, where the outcomes are few and have a large range, using the binom is definitely superior.
that -1/105 edge (0.00952 or 0.952%) has a
standard deviation of the HE
of 18.0835384% at 60 bets so the HE range is 0.952% +/- 54.25061522%
a whopper!! (for 3SD)
added:
standard deviation of the HE =
unitSD/square root of N
1.400744862/7.745966692
or
total$SD/total $action
($379.7543/$2,100.00)
one can easily calculate the standard error for any simulation sample size,Quote: goatcabinI ran a couple of sims of 50,000 sessions each using different initial seeds; one came out -.0093 HA, the other -.0102, around 45% winning sessions.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
unitSD/square root of N = standard error
(your 50k sessions for example)
1.400744862/223.6067977 = 0.006264321
If you did 50k in WinCraps, it has a % won or lost HA data page
and shows the var and sd, you may know already. others might not.
or the simulation sample size (minimum) needed to get the standard error to a certain value.
(unitSD/SE)^2 = N
How about a .001 standard error?
Should be larger than a 50k session sim.
Exercise left up to the reader.
YW. Took a minute.Quote: Ahigh7craps, thanks for taking the time to analyze these rolls. It's pretty cool to see this graph.
You should think about using gnuplot for your graphs if you are willing to come up to speed on it and I can automate them into my software.
Thanks.
I look into your suggestion.
I first do it for me so I can "see" the data and if it looks OK, I normally post it.
WinCraps and Excel is what I use in WinXP,
but I now find the free R stats program to be even easier and much faster to use to crunch numbers and more fun at times.
But I have everything I do in Excel and it does some neat graphs and charts, and can be used live,
with just a few clicks of the mouse, but not as much with WinCraps.
Sometimes, A picture is worth a thousand words, but only after you see it first
Quote: 7craps
one can easily calculate the standard error for any simulation sample size,
unitSD/square root of N = standard error
(your 50k sessions for example)
1.400744862/223.6067977 = 0.006264321
If you did 50k in WinCraps, it has a % won or lost HA data page
and shows the var and sd, you may know already. others might not.
Where did 1.4007etc. come from?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Quote: goatcabinWhere did 1.4007etc. come from?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
unitsd = (x+1)*Sqrt(p*(1-p))
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/1213-variance-in-craps/#post8029
In my Excel
= ((69/35)+1)*SQRT((3/9)*(1-(3/9)))
The Wizard also shows how to do this but I did not save the link.
Quote: 7crapsunitsd = (x+1)*Sqrt(p*(1-p))
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/1213-variance-in-craps/#post8029
In my Excel
= ((69/35)+1)*SQRT((3/9)*(1-(3/9)))
The Wizard also shows how to do this but I did not save the link.
OK, that's the SD relative to the bet amount, so my $49.03 is 1.408 * $35. I just wasn't seeing what that actually represents.
The standard deviation of the mean formula is a basic one in math books.
Using it for the house edge is not really done by many but it really hits home, I think, better than ev and sd, sometimes.
The example I did for the -1/105 edge
that -1/105 edge (0.00952 or 0.952%) has a
standard deviation of the HE
of 18.0835384% at 60 bets so the HE range is 0.952% +/- 54.25061522%
(for 3SD)
I have always used just (for N bets)
total$SD/total $action
($379.7543/$2,100.00)
I always have those values along with EV for N wagers.
===========================================
Take a pass line with no odds example.
almost everyone will think you will lose "about or close to" 1.41% of the total wagered on the pass line.
Even after many bets. Right?? Sounds reasonable.
How about 3000 bets.
You do not have to calculate the ev here. We know the HE
We know 1.41% is that magic value.
So what is the standard deviation of the house edge from 3000 pass line bets say at $10 each? $30k action.
It should be, using 1st method,
unit$SD/sqrt 3000 is the answer
0.999900005203561 ( or 1) / 54.77225575 = 0.018255593
Wow! 1.8256%. Higher than the 1.41% we know and love
or using 2nd method
1*$10*54.77225575 = 547.72 SD for 3k bets
total action = $10 * 3,000 = $30,000
547.72/$30,000 = same
Just goes to show there is variance almost everywhere.
and we really can end up spread out away from that magical HE value
Quote: 7craps
The example I did for the -1/105 edge
that -1/105 edge (0.00952 or 0.952%) has a
standard deviation of the HE
of 18.0835384% at 60 bets so the HE range is 0.952% +/- 54.25061522%
(for 3SD)
I
How do you get that one?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
