REALLY blew out my bankroll

Jean Scott writes about doing this in her book before she moved to Las Vegas.

Teddys,

It takes some guts to talk about the losses, they are so easy to ignore as opposed to the wins.

If it makes you feel any better, I got my face kicked in on a Quick Hits machine yesterday for $310. That amount is waaaayyyy outside of the amount that I will usually play in a single session, but I had hit for $105 ($95 ahead - $5 tip = $90.00 + $10.00 in = $100) on a Video Keno game in a cafe, still down $210 (more than I would normally lose) for the night, though.

This bastard was in such +ER territory it was impossible not to play it. Keep in mind that I think my machines are the ones set to 92.09%, but if the lowest is 88.xx%, I still had positive ER on any $1.50 Quick Hits Platinum machine on Earth.

Using my add the difference method, and Nine QH is almost irrelevant:

Any nine QH symbols pays 2,000 × total bet. Occurs every 2,073,600 games.
Any eight QH symbols pays 650 × total bet. Occurs every 87,617 games.
Any seven QH symbols pays100 × total bet. Occurs every 9,327 games.
Any six QH symbols pays 50 × total bet. Occurs every 1,329 games.
Any five QH symbols pays 10 × total bet . Occurs every 230 games.

Free Games occurs once in 96 plays.

http://www.arcade-history.com/?n=black-and-white-sevens-quick-hit-platinum&page=detail&id=32113

Eight QH was at ($1420 - $975) * 1/87617 = +.00508---+.5%ER
Seven QH was at ($432 - $150) * 1/9327 = .03023---+3.023%ER
Six QH was at ($219 - $75) * 1/1329 = 0.10835214446952596---+10.835%ER
Five QH was at ($23 - $15) * 1/230 = 0.034782608695652174---+3.478%ER

Okay, so you add 17.836% to whatever you want to assume the Base Pay is. The worst case scenario is 88.05%, so that's 105.913% ER, six percent G**D*** advantage on every spin. I think my machines are set at 92.09%, so that's 109.93% for a nearly 10% G**D*** advantage on every spin.

I want you to tell me how you stop playing that machine! I'll tell you when. When you no longer have any money in your wallet and don't carry any plastic!

See those probabilties up there? Forget them.

Free Games occurs zero times in however many spins I took.
Five QuickHits occurs zero times in however many spins I took.
Six QuickHits occurs zero times in however many spins I took.
Seven QuickHits occurs zero times in however many spins I took.
Eight QuickHits occurs zero times in however many spins I took.

Those are the probabilties!!! Okay, not really!

I actually went back this morning and someone (or more than one person) got the 5QH and 6QH, so the game was back to a very egative expectation.

I mean that I got pounded, just pumping $50 after $50 into that machine! It's fine, because my bankroll can handle it after how well last year went for me, but by no means is this something that can happen often!

Quote: boymimbo

The average length therefore of a roll per shooter is about 6.85 rolls/shooter.

I'm pretty sure avg rolls/shooter is about 8.5 but I don't have the math handy. Maybe later.

Quote: sodawater

I suspect that if there were a game where you could bet $1 to win $999 on a truly 1 in 1000 chance, that would be the most popular game in the casino. But it wouldn't show any profit for the house.

I would wager lots of money it wouldn't be as a standalone game. :P

Quote: sodawater

If you bet $10 flat with $10 odds, or bet $10 flat with $1000 odds, your expected loss is exactly the same, to the penny. The key is never to bet more than you have to on the line.

A lot of smart craps players forget this, and it's why you need deep pockets to play 10X or greater.

Quote: MathExtremist

I'm pretty sure avg rolls/shooter is about 8.5 but I don't have the math handy. Maybe later.

Pretty much, Wiz says 8.526 rolls

https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/123/

While I actually came up on this one, I think it was a well-earned faceplant:

I was over at Rincon the other day and noticed that one of the big 4-seat Clue units was up to a 250$ progressive with 3 suspects, 1 murder weapon and 1 location to choose from.

It's like, 8AM on a weekday so I figure I can lowball it playing 80c/spin and hoping it gives me chances to guess. Goes up and down a bit. About half an hour later, down maybe 50$ and no chances to guess yet, somebody sits at the furthest seat, plays minimum, and gets a bonus on their second spin. I, in what seemed like a good idea at the time, hit max bet and hit a bonus on it.

His bonus finishes, and.... he gets a chance to guess... and nails it. I get to watch the progressive drop to 100$ with 6 suspects, 6 potential murder weapons, 6 potential locations as the game informs me that I have a chance to guess. Well. I got to leave 30$ up, at least.

Quote: Venthus

While I actually came up on this one, I think it was a well-earned faceplant:

I was over at Rincon the other day and noticed that one of the big 4-seat Clue units was up to a 250$ progressive with 3 suspects, 1 murder weapon and 1 location to choose from.

It's like, 8AM on a weekday so I figure I can lowball it playing 80c/spin and hoping it gives me chances to guess. Goes up and down a bit. About half an hour later, down maybe 50$ and no chances to guess yet, somebody sits at the furthest seat, plays minimum, and gets a bonus on their second spin. I, in what seemed like a good idea at the time, hit max bet and hit a bonus on it.

His bonus finishes, and.... he gets a chance to guess... and nails it. I get to watch the progressive drop to 100$ with 6 suspects, 6 potential murder weapons, 6 potential locations as the game informs me that I have a chance to guess. Well. I got to leave 30$ up, at least.

wait -- there's a slot machine where you have to guess the Clue murderer?

Quote: sodawater

wait -- there's a slot machine where you have to guess the Clue murderer?

http://now.wms.com/products/clue

There's something like seven different bonuses that gradually get unlocked as you meet conditions on the unit (there's a login that saves your progress). The bonuses are all different; one of them gives a few free spins, and symbols get knocked out after every spin, another gives a few free spins and, for the final spin, you get an extra number of wilds equal to the number of wilds that has shown up in the previous few, etc. At the end of each bonus, you have a chance to get to solve the murder, with the chance dependent on bet size. (40c-4.00 here; at max bet, it's guaranteed. But you have to GET a bonus first.) If you solve the murder, you get the small progressive in the image, usually around 100-200#.

Quote: teddys

This is hard for me to write, but I am not the kind of person to hide from big losses and keep them secret:

I am down over five figures playing craps since October 1, 2012. I have no more bankroll to speak of.

I never make a bet more than the table minimum on anything other than a free bet. Therefore, my expected loss over say, 30 hours of play should be close to $200. My actual loss is about 50 times that. I always take max odds on the passline with a couple come bets, also max odds. Usually I end up making a come bet every roll, with max odds.

If you said this was playing optimally you would be correct. However, it was a stupid method for me. I was making bets way out of proportion to my bankroll, and just never saw any upside. I lost just about every session I played. If there are no good or even mediocre shooters, you get cleaned out incredibly quickly.

For someone who always make optimal bets on video poker and any other game, this is incredibly embarrassing as well as psychologically troubling for me. I am beginning to wonder if I can control myself and live a healthy lifestyle here in Las Vegas. To try to repair things a little, I will not be playing for the next 6 to 8 weeks while I pursue other life goals (like passing the bar exam). Financially, I am still solvent, but there's just no room for recreational playing anymore until I get my stuff together.

Sorry for this solipistic rant, but it needed to be said. I've already found it helpful talking with other people on the board about it privately. I still enjoy playing with forum members and meeting people who come to town, but this is going to be on hold for the near future. I will still be doing the Wizard's radio show on Jan. 17th.

Teddy, I'm sorry to hear this.

I think that this comes back to a discussion we were having earlier on another thread (at least, I think it was you). We were discussing "optimal play" and I think that I said that someone who is betting the table minimum without playing odds is playing optimally, and you disagreed, saying that you had to be playing max odds to be playing optimally.

Note that I am in favor of making odds bets in general, but the point that I was trying to make then, and that I've tried to make on other craps threads, is that it's not about "betting optimally" in the general sense, but, rather, "betting optimally" for a specific bet level. After all, "betting optimally" would be to simply not play unless you had an edge. Furthermore, a house could have a promotion where they allowed unlimited odds (or odds capped by an amount that greatly exceeds you bankroll, say, $1,000,000). In this case, you could never take max odds, but it doesn't mean that you wouldn't want to play there.

For craps (or, any -EV game) I think that it makes most sense to find a bet level and variance that you are comfortable with, and then structure your bets in the optimal way within those constraints. In other words, if you are comfortable betting $100 per point, and you are at a $5 table that offers 100x odds, you should bet $5 on the pass with $95 or $100 in odds. I still feel that it's not fair to call this method of betting sub-optimal -- it's the optimal way to achieve what you are trying to achieve (risking about $100 on each point). The fact that you could bet $500 on the odds and have a lower total HE is irrelevant -- it doesn't achieve your goal. Conversely, betting $100 on the pass line with no odds would be an extremely sub-optimal way of achieving that goal.

I don't mean for this to come across as an "I told you so" -- I genuinely like you and hope you win it all back, and then some. I just figured that it would be a good time to drive home the point, complete with an example, hoping that it helps others.

To summarize -- I do not believe that you should always be looking for the lowest house edge. I believe that you should be looking for the lowest house edge available for the stakes at which you wish to play. The difference may seem subtle, but, at a game like craps, it can be significant, particularly if the table minimums are high or the allowable odds multipliers are high.

Hopefully you will be back in the game soon and we can get together in Vegas some time!

deleted

I might just as well weigh in and get more grief as well....... ;-)

I have been trying for a year now to verbalize that PL /w full odds and CB w/Full odds is not the optimal way to play craps, for 90% of the players. But I could never vocalize why, until recently.
However, naturally the math guys are able to pick this apart in seconds, and I walk away licking my wounds each time.

Yet, I keep seeing the evidence come up that supports my position, that PL and continuous CB just doesn't work, even though the math says they should.

While some guys get tired of the repeated discussions and go silent, others will continue to debate the issue. And thanks to them, I think I am getting a handle on what I am observing. While I am still not solid on the whole picture, some pieces are coming into focus.
Note: I cannot acknowledge the people who have helped me, because while I know a couple names off the top of my head, there are many others who have provided great insight too and I do not want to sleight them by forgetting them. I think you all know who you are, and those that have followed my debates know who the players are as well.

1. The first thing that I have been forced to understand is how the buy-in affects the outcome. I use the wrong technical terms, so I'm not even going to try to name this. Suffice it to say, that the amount you buy-in with must support the size of the bet you are going to make. And this is where the free odds fails so many craps players. It is not that the free odds is a bad bet, it is the free odds they take makes their total bet size too large for their buy in. And once you are overbetting your current buy in, the chance of ruin being the result, is increased.
I have spent hours working with WinCraps and what I have learned really opened my eyes. The lower my buy -in the more I manage to lose time after time in simulations. Why? Partly because I bust out, and there is no further chance for recovery. There is much more to this that I cannot explain because I don't understand it yet. But what I have found is, I should be buying in for 4-8x above the amount I currently do.

2. You need to determine how long you desire to play this session, to understand what your buy-in and bet size should be. In other words, what is your session goal?
If my session goal is to double my buy-in, with no session length consideration, I have a few choices. I can play minimum bet for hours and hope to win. - Not likely to happen, since every bet is more money expected to go to the house.
I can make one bet of my whole buy in. Only 2 possible results. I lose everything, or I reach my goal, and double my buy in. BUT, I have to leave after that one bet, or else I am not paying attention to my session goal, and that is a problem.
If your session goal is to play for as long as you can on $20, this is an easy goal to hit. You know going in you are going to lose $20. Oh sure, you might hit that 1 in 10,000 shot, and somehow parlay $20 into $1000 and decide to walk, but it is much more likely that you will play the $20 into $200, and then back to $20 and finally to $0. I KNOW this scenario all too well.

3.) Access to your craps game.
A craps player with access to a local game needs to have goals and self rules that are going to be different than someone who visits a craps table every few months.
As an occasional player, I can take a bit more of a chance and perhaps blow my complete buy in or bankroll. I have 3 months to heal.
A local player cannot afford to take that chance. Their goals and buy-in has to be accurately calculated and adhered to. Failure to comply, is ruin.

Craps is a sneaky game. I would never dream of sitting down at a BJ table, buy in for $1000, and put a $300 bet out there. That would be foolish. Yet I do that exact thing playing craps time and time again. It has a built in way of letting you WAY OVER BET your optimum maximum bet.
For those interested in stock, craps has built in LEVERAGE. Leverage is a great thing, when it is going good, you make a killing. But when it goes bad, the margin calls come in, and before you can blink, you are broke.
I learned about leverage in the 2nd month of my first foray into day trading stocks. Coincidentally, that was also shortly before I had to reload my account. The stock that caused me to go broke (very small play account) dipped below my ability to cover the margin call, and I was stopped out. The very next day, it reversed direction, and instead of being broke, I would have made a bundle. That was a great lesson I got, at a relatively small price.

But, that lesson correlates so closely to the craps game. As I said, the free odds bet is LEVERAGE. When you are winning with it, nothing sweeter. But LEVERAGE has you over betting your bankroll, and when it goes bad, ruin is waiting.

I got so focused on addressing the debate on whether or not PL CB was the problem, that I forgot to address the OP.

teddys,
I am shocked and saddened to read your story. I was really surprised by it, especially considering we played together recently.
However, it is fortunate that you have the ability to recognize the problem, and this thread is a great step towards making sure it doesn't happen again. Life is full of lessons. The smart people learn the lesson, recover, and move on. Those who don't learn the lesson, are doomed to repeat the mistakes, and will never move on. Thirty years later and they are pissed that life dealt them a bad hand. I would be utterly astounded if you turned out to be the latter. I just don't see that happening.

I instead believe you are going to learn this lesson, and will adapt accordingly. Taking a break is definitely a must. I would suggest before you even think about coming back, that you formulate a game plan for how you are going to play, once you do come back. Then stick to that plan. As you alluded to, it may be that you are one of the people who cannot live in Vegas. If you create a reasonable game plan, but then find you cannot stick to the plan, you have to be able to recognize that as a problem. If you recognize the problem, you can address the problem. But if you can't see the problem, you will end back up at this thread a second time, except it may be a 6 figure hole next time.
I wish you the best of luck my friend. May your time away from the game be productive. May you pass the bar on the first try, because we always need another lawyer. :-)

Raleigh, agree with you fully. I think the key to the odds bet is having the bankroll to support it.

Now, as for the wizard's claim that the average number of rolls is determined as follows:

Quote: WOO

First, if the probability of an event is p then the expected number of trials for it to occur is 1/p. Let's call x the expected number of rolls per shooter. The probability that any given round will end in one roll (with a 2, 3, 7, 11, or 12) is 1/3. If the player rolls a 4 or 10 on the come out roll the expected number of additional rolls is 4, because the probability of rolling a 4 or 7 is (6+3)/36 = 1/4. Likewise If the player rolls a 5 or 9 on the come out roll the expected number of additional rolls is 3.6 and for a 6 or 8 is 36/11. Assuming a point was thrown the probability of it being a 4 or 10 is 3/12, a 5 or 9 is 4/12, and a 6 or 8 is 5/12. So the expected number of throws per round is 1+(2/3)*((3/12)*4 + (4/12)*3.6 + (5/12)*(36/11)) = 3.375758. Next, the probability that the player will seven out is (2/3)*((3/12)*(2/3) + (4/12)*(3/5) + (5/12)*(6/11)) = 0.39596. The probability that player will not seven out is 1 - 0.39596 = 0.60404. So...
x = 3.375758 + 0.60404*x
0.39596*x = 3.375758
x = 8.52551

Here's my math:

It will take on average 0.5 rolls to establish a point which is the sum of (1/3)^n as n approaches infinity = 1/2.
A point will take 4.563636 rolls to resolve (1 + 3/12*4 =+ 4/12*3.6 + 5/12*36/11).

The odds of making the point is .0406061. (1/3 * 6/24 + 4/10 * 8/24 + 5/11 * 10/24). The odds of sevening out is 1-.040601 = .593939.

Therefore, the total number of rolls to the first point is 1/2+4.563636 = 5.063636 which happens 59.3939% of the time for 3.007496....
The total number of rolls for two points is 5.063636 * 2 which happens 24.11% of the time ....
and so on

Darn, when I add it up, I get the Wiz's answer, because in my original calculation I didn't take into account the roll to establish the point!!!

I stand corrected. The wizard of course is right. It's 8.52551 rolls per shooter, on average

WOW, a lot of good discussion here. I'll try to respond to some of the points.

Alan M. and supperick: I entirely disagree with you on the free odds bet. I love the free odds bet, and will never make any other bets besides PL/odds. It is just a matter of how I want to scale them. I have to bet less because the max odds right away just crushed me.

It's not that I lost it all in one horrible session. I just lost _every single time_ I went to go play craps over the course of three months. I didn't deviate from my betting level or have a stop-loss/stop-win. I just kept playing and there was no upside at all (besides one slight blip). I had tunnel vision and at no point did I step back and say, "What the hell are you doing?"

7craps: You are right and I've seen people who bet the max odds on every roll wins absolute shitloads of $$$. Of course, the variance goes both ways...

RaleighCraps: You are right, something about the game just encourages overbetting. You should see me at a blackjack game where I sweat a $100 max bet. But I have no problem putting $300 out on the table on one roll? You also want to try to get your money back when you are losing. Not that that doesn't happen in other games, but it's significantly more pronounced in craps.

100xOdds: A $1650 bankroll wasn't even _close_ to what I needed. I recall one day where I lost $500, then $600, then $900, all at separate casinos. I had a couple days like that. This was at $3 tables with 10x odds.

Quote: Boz

So now that you know what you did wrong from a bet size to bankroll standpoint, do you think you will try it again with what you have learned?

Yes. I am trying new approaches to the game. I realize I don't have the self-control to play responsibly; something about losing at the game drives me nuts and I want to recoup it immediately. That's bad news in any negative E.V. game.

I hung around and played with AHigh the other day at Cosmo and Bellagio and had some fun just throwing out a couple bets here and there, mostly watching the rolls, and just bullshitting. I even won a little bit. This is going to be my road to recovery :) The majority of my play will be on +E.V. games in the future, like it was before.

But like I said, I'm not playing at all for the time being. New life goals.

Quote: teddys

I had tunnel vision and at no point did I step back and say, "What the hell are you doing?"
.

Thats kinda frightening. It sounds like my wife when
she plays the slots. As long as she has money, she
has no ability to consider where she is. She always
thinks she'll win and she seldom seldom does.

Unlike your wife, when I gamble I *hope* I'll win: I never *think* I will.

Helps keep it in perspective.

Quote:

I realize I don't have the self-control to play responsibly; something about losing at the game drives me nuts and I want to recoup it immediately. That's bad news in any negative E.V. game.

It's a less than ideal solution, but I found my solution to that by letting somebody else, with more control than me, manage my bankroll. It's galling at times, particularly when you "know" things will turn around... but more often than not, I'm thankful that somebody else can clobber me over the head and tell me I'm being ridiculous.

Quote:

You are right, something about the game just encourages overbetting. You should see me at a blackjack game where I sweat a $100 max bet. But I have no problem putting $300 out on the table on one roll?

I think that's one of the expensive lessons that every craps player learns at some point. It's just so easy to have piles of chips out on the table, especially if you fall into the trap of pressing and thinking of only the chips in your rack as 'your money'. That stack that was pressed four times? That's 'your money' too, if you want to take it!

Also, I really, really hope you weren't that guy across from me at Rincon a few days ago; I hit him for over 10k in 6 throws on a 5$ minimum table.

Quote: Venthus

Also, I really, really hope you weren't that guy across from me at Rincon a few days ago; I hit him for over 10k in 6 throws on a 5$ minimum table.

No, but you'll see everything in this town. AHigh just popped a guy for $20K on the don'ts at the Mirage the other nights. I saw a guy at Caesars just peeling off hundreds and hundreds from a huge roll and JUST hopping the 9 and 10 every roll. It was insane. I swear I see the dumbest high limit play at Caesars.

I really enjoy watching the game on the Strip more than playing.

Quote: teddys

I really enjoy watching the game on the Strip more than playing.

True dat.

That is a main attraction for me as well: watching the people and the action that I just don't see at my regular tribal haunts in Oregon.

And those hot young women on Friday and Saturday night all dressed up in their short cocktail dresses and F-me heels ...

*sigh*

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

With all due respect, but the optimal bet for craps passline is ZERO since it is a negative expectatiin bet.

Sorry, no. You are paying for entertainment.

Quote: MrV

True dat.

That is a main attraction for me as well: watching the people and the action

*sigh*

What always kills me about Vegas is the people who
have $22 worth of clothes on and an $8000 BR that
they go thru like it was meaningless. And dealers
reaction is they're almost asleep. Pull that kind of
action in a local casino and the pit will be on the
phone and the dealer will be sweating bullets.

Quote: Venthus

It's a less than ideal solution, but I found my solution to that by letting somebody else, with more control than me, manage my bankroll. It's galling at times, particularly when you "know" things will turn around... but more often than not, I'm thankful that somebody else can clobber me over the head and tell me I'm being ridiculous.

I've handed my g/f a few hundred a couple of times this past year to hold on to and may be doing it again in Tunica this weekend with its 99.96% VP temptation. My mother is like Even Bob's wife with slots, and I inherited a nice "loss-chasing" habit.

It's usually the worst when I am playing ~100% video poker (and only for quarters!). If I hit a bad patch, I feed more and more into the machine and get more and more irritated. D'oh. No way I could be an AP even if I wanted to.

Quote: teddys

No, but you'll see everything in this town. AHigh just popped a guy for $20K on the don'ts at the Mirage the other nights. I saw a guy at Caesars just peeling off hundreds and hundreds from a huge roll and JUST hopping the 9 and 10 every roll. It was insane. I swear I see the dumbest high limit play at Caesars.

I really enjoy watching the game on the Strip more than playing.

Well, the "fun" part was that he was placing the 6/8 on come out and I threw 7-7-7-7-5-7. I haven't even seen 1000$ chips in action at Rincon before. I get the impression I've probably played with some of you guys up in Vegas without knowing it. Feel free to say hi if you see a young Asian guy in glasses (...yeah, that'll sure narrow it down...) and a brown Binion's jacket doing 5$ P/DP. (And if you're the type to take max odds, feel free to ask if you can take my leftovers.)

Quote: tringlomane

I've handed my g/f a few hundred a couple of times this past year to hold on to and may be doing it again in Tunica this weekend with its 99.96% VP temptation. My mother is like Even Bob's wife with slots, and I inherited a nice "loss-chasing" habit.

It's usually the worst when I am playing ~100% video poker (and only for quarters!). If I hit a bad patch, I feed more and more into the machine and get more and more irritated. D'oh. No way I could be an AP even if I wanted to.

Yep. I have the desire to chase too. Thankfully, I run a small enough per-session bankroll that I have to think long and hard if I want a 10-minute session by chasing, or see if I can recoup it slowly with smaller bets. Usually, the cooler side of the head prevails since I enjoy playing, and would rather lose slowly than quickly.

...Just how much can you really chase in VP?

On a side thought, what's the biggest VP people's seen? It's not my game of choice so I don't watch it much, but I noticed a 100$/credit JoB at Rincon and a 50-hand 10$/credit something at one of the other places in Temecula recently.

Quote: Venthus

...Just how much can you really chase in VP?

Eh, more like I'm apt to quit when I am ahead or even, but I could play all night if I get into a big enough hole. Being more stuck makes me want to keep playing. I had this issue in online poker as well. I was close to even in online cash games before Black Friday, but about 65% of my sessions were winning I think. Which means, in the 35% losing sessions...some of those losses were massive. One weekend I blew $5k playing over my roll. :-\

I don't really look hard for high denom unless I am looking around for VPFree, but I have seen a $25 credit machine before.

I am also sorry to hear about teddys circumstances, but admire him for being honest.

When I was in college I went to Vegas for a spring break on a $104RT flight from the east coast and slept 5 in a room at Circus Circus for $20/night. I sat at the $50 double deck blackjack table with a $150 bankroll and grew it to over $700. Five days later, I had lived like a king (by collegiate standards) and had about $850 in my pocket with 8 hours to go until my flight home... then I started playing craps. As expected, I ended up having to borrow money from my girlfriend at the airport to pay for our parking.

I love craps even more today, but take a totally different perspective. Although, I could afford higher stakes, but I usually play $3 craps at Vegas/AC places with good drink service. I bet the minimum and only take $5 worth of odds on me and my friends, usually only 1-3 other people. I make a dealer bet on pass on my first throw of every orbit and try to drink my way in +EV territory, tipping the waitresses, of course.

I thought that craps was the most fun went I had the rush of winning meaningful sums of money, but, for me, it's now the most fun when the money doesn't matter and I a free to drink, cheer, high five strangers, and crack some jokes.

Quote: RaleighCraps

I have been trying for a year now to verbalize that PL /w full odds and CB w/Full odds is not the optimal way to play craps, for 90% of the players. But I could never vocalize why, until recently.

Good post, R-Craps. You seem to be a straight shooter and when you say you have been winning lately, I believe you. We need to hear more from some Craps winners!

Quote: RaleighCraps

However, naturally the math guys are able to pick this apart in seconds ...

Yet, I keep seeing the evidence come up that supports my position, that PL and continuous CB just doesn't work

The latter part of this statement seems indisputable. But let's really ask ourselves what the math guys are saying. In ask-the-W when the Wizard is confronted with the statement "the free odds do not help you win more money" he does not dispute it. Yet the evidence seems to be that players are piling on the free odds trying to win more money all the time, and this I think is the ruin involved that we keep seeing posted. Players are looking at the low HE and thinking, that's got to be where I want to be. Problem is, adding the free odds to your bets can be a nonsensical action. I'd say it is revealed when someone says they are uncomfortable with a $100 bet in BJ and not necessarily Craps. Knowing they play 10x odds, that says to me they are playing out the fallacy that the Wizard himself does not dispute.

I too "have been trying for a year now to verbalize" something to little seeming effect. And that is, the free odds only make sense when you limit your total action. If it makes you increase your total action, you are falling into the fallacy, which basically revolves around the fact the odds can lower the HE but not the EV, meanwhile skyrocketing variance and chance of ruin. If a player doesnt say to himself that the free odds mean he has to make fewer bets overall, we are just going to keep hearing disaster stories. Less action on the Line while getting action in the odds is the only way the odds can also lower the EV.

Quote: teddys

Alan M. and supperick: I entirely disagree with you on the free odds bet. I love the free odds bet, and will never make any other bets besides PL/odds. It is just a matter of how I want to scale them. I have to bet less because the max odds right away just crushed me.

It's not that I lost it all in one horrible session. I just lost _every single time_ I went to go play craps over the course of three months. I didn't deviate from my betting level or have a stop-loss/stop-win. I just kept playing and there was no upside at all (besides one slight blip). I had tunnel vision and at no point did I step back and say, "What the hell are you doing?"

You love it and it wiped out you. Wonderful.

What ever happened to the idea of starting bets at craps with low amounts and adding odds and pressing bets as "hot hands" appear, therefore limiting your liability to all of those short rolls, and the proverbial point-sevens that seem to dominate sessions?

Why do "odds bettors" have to jump on with full odds? Where is there a rule that says you must bet gung-ho on each and every shooter?
The craps tables have icy cold water, do you have to dive in all the time, or can you dip a toe and ease in?

I'm not a fan nor an advocate of the "five count" system -- NOR DO I USE IT -- but I can understand how it can save you from losing a lot of money. I also seem to see players who start with only place bets on the 6 and 8 lose less when the dice are not cooperating.

Quote: Venthus

Well, the "fun" part was that he was placing the 6/8 on come out and I threw 7-7-7-7-5-7. I haven't even seen 1000$ chips in action at Rincon before.

This is an interesting choice of words, Venthus, since Rincon is a card craps casino and the two dice you throw choose two random cards.

How many see some assets here?

A good e-book on Adventures in Vegas on a Shoe String subtitled No Fixed Abode.

A good gambler who has now realized he has to learn some self control and not get swept up in the emotional aspects as the dice are rolling.

I agree... no need for Full Odds... most gamblers gripe about not having 100x odds but only go to 2x anyway.

I think it was Rick Jax who passed the bar but then set up in Vegas as a media type and wrote three books about his adventures amongst the Vegas netherworld.

Quote: FleaStiff

How many see some assets here?

A good e-book on Adventures in Vegas on a Shoe String subtitled No Fixed Abode.

I think it would make a great movie... but we just reached the midpoint of the movie and now the character and plot make the "big turn" which can be a great comeback at the table perhaps linked with finding the girl of his dreams (a cocktail waitress at a casino who warns him that he can lose it all again) who makes him put aside his devotion to craps even as he is raking in big money. The gal's influence works and he becomes a family man and devoted teacher and coach to underpriviliged high school students who were considering "easy ways out" such as crime. And his lessons as a gambler who won and lost helps guide them. And the movie ends with the birth of his own son and the decision to move out of Vegas.

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Wasn't the point I was making. And I'll say it again, gambling is not entertainment to me. You have "fun" losing money at craps in a casino and I'll have "fun" playing it at home for free.

But it is to most people, including myself.

I for one NEVER approach casino gambling as a way to make a living, or to earn a profit: I fully understand the implications of playing casino games which favor the house.

My usual game is craps, and since I do not believe in the efficacy of dice influencing I believe that the casino always has the edge against us all in this game.

Which is fine.

I guess I like to play Don Quixote to the casino's windmill.

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Quote: AlanMendelson

This is an interesting choice of words, Venthus, since Rincon is a card craps casino and the two dice you throw choose two random cards.

I don't make any attempts to manipulate what numbers come up, so the abstraction layer between the pips and the actual numbers are largely irrelevant to me. To me, I may as well be throwing spades/clubs/hearts/diamonds/circles/squares and seeing what numbers they map to. Given that the dice I'm throwing do directly influence the numbers that are used, I think it's fair to hold "ownership" over the results, as much as any random shooter can. The guy also asked to see the other cards, to see that it wasn't rigged. Just awful luck, for him.

At least it has a more authentic feel than Pechanga, where a dealer pulls two cards out of a CSM-like unit or Pala, where a dice determine whether the left or the right card, drawn from a 36-card shoe is picked. (Though I actually win at Pala, so maybe that DOES work better for me...)

I wanted to make a quick correction and several comments.

The quick correction: the $20,000 loss from the don't player was another player's hot roll that I wasn't betting on at all. The don't player wasn't being obnoxious and was just minding his own business. There was no drama related to his losses. But I don't see that kind of action much. That's the only time I've seen someone lost that much money without making much noise before leaving the table. I broke even (well I won $5 or so).

Comments related to losing your bankroll:

I had one losing session where I lost $6 lately, and that was at the Gold Coast. I've won all my sessions for the last 12-14 trips.

I even won money on Teddy the other night, although it was a chase fest after he rolled craps into $50 coming, then $75 coming. I chased and got lucky on him with a big stack on the come that traveled to the nine. I didn't count it, but it was at least $300.

Teddy was able to get a new perspective watching people make absolutely stupid bets (including my $300+ coming after he popped me for $125 worth of crap in the come) and observing their character as they proceeded that night. He described it as an "it was like an out of body experience."

Even my bets on Teddy were absolutely stupid. I grind up a couple bucks with tiny bets for a couple months and risk a third of what I made on ten rolls for Teddy.

I also did this when I first met Teddy and lost $600 instead of making a couple of bucks and initiated the timeline of my downward spiral to my losing my bankroll.

This time I didn't get as unlucky as last time chasing.

I'm up to $1800 from what was $10 about 4-5 weeks ago. I'm visiting the Cosmopolitan instead of the Joker's Wild.

Everyone knows I had a similar thread a while back about blowing out my bankroll.

Back then, I think plenty of people assumed my bankroll got decimated from my inability to shoot. That was absolutely not my perspective on things at all.

My mistake, much like Teddy, was a gambling issue, not an edge problem or a lack of edge problem.

It is absolutely fun to gamble. And just like Teddy, I will take absolutely HUGE risks every now and then just for kicks that COMPLETELY override the relevance of progress from advantage play. Changing your bet sizes by an order of magnitude or more no matter what the reasoning is for doing it is just gambling. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. And doing this (increasing your bets) makes the relevance of the house edge on previous bets instantly go into the noise level. It's suddenly all about luck and the past is just leading up to the opportunity you are hoping to exploit in the present.

After I blew out my bankroll on craps, I took a huge investment (you could call it a gamble too on the short timeline it processed) on the stock market and I bought over $100,000 of stock, and I made about five figures in profit in 7 days.

The point of this is that you have to be careful associating what your bankroll is doing with your success, and just be able to realize when you are LUCKY and be able to stop at the high points and enjoy how lucky you are.

That's what I did after I had a mountain of luck after losing a couple thousand on craps, I gained tens of thousands outside of gambling. So I made the decision to just play Santa Clause. I bought iPad retinas for the whole family, and I'm still buying cameras and other fun stuff.

I could have taken out loans on my gains and went to the craps table and wrecked my life getting more greedy just assuming the luck would continue.

But I decided instead to ENJOY my good fortune instead of parlaying it. And part of deciding that was based on my experiences of having more hubris from my gains in playing the game of craps. It's very easy to make a step in the wrong direction, and then let emotion lead you into ruin.

Teddy is VERY familiar with my betting style. And much of my betting style lately is just WAITING and trying to snipe in a victory against the grain.

The last come is a winner, and you don't look like an ass for doing it until people notice that you always win when they lose.

But you don't have to be a don't better to win when others are losing. And that's one of the games that I like to play. I can stay at the table and win while how many other people come up and lose and walk away.

The other thing that has happened to me is that I'm probably going to lose my Diamond status at the Silverton. It really doesn't mean anything except that I'm not making my typical-sized bets over there. But going for comps by betting bigger is only awesome when you're winning. I'm ahead plenty on my play, I can do without whatever I am missing between Platinum and Diamond.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I think it would make a great movie... but we just reached the midpoint of the movie and now the character and plot make the "big turn" which can be a great comeback at the table perhaps linked with finding the girl of his dreams (a cocktail waitress at a casino who warns him that he can lose it all again) who makes him put aside his devotion to craps even as he is raking in big money. The gal's influence works and he becomes a family man and devoted teacher and coach to underpriviliged high school students who were considering "easy ways out" such as crime. And his lessons as a gambler who won and lost helps guide them. And the movie ends with the birth of his own son and the decision to move out of Vegas.

Read this blog https://wizardofvegas.com/member/teddys/blog/8/

And rethink the movie ending. He has to become a lawyer and win a big criminal case for his defendant. Most law school graduates are guys born on 3rd base, who think they hit a triple. Just from reading his blog, he is the kind of lawyer I would want defending me.

It's obvious he would do more than just take my retainer and go thru the motions. No guarantee I would beat the rap, but I can guarantee Teddys would make the cops prove their case.

Quote: Buzzard

Just from reading his blog, he is the kind of lawyer I would want defending me. It's obvious he would do more than just take my retainer and go thru the motions. No guarantee I would beat the rap, but I can guarantee Teddys would make the cops prove their case.

Uh ... no ...

Teddys is, if I understand it, a newly-minted attorney fresh out of law school, which is fine: we all have to start somewhere.

You do NOT want to retain a green lawyer for a criminal case: his mind is filled with law school mush and has not yet been tempered by the reality of the law.

No doubt he would try his best, but his best wouldn't hold a candle to what an experienced, savvy lawyer can do.

It's a game, and to get good at it you have to play it for awhile.

Good criminal lawyers often learn the ropes by working initially for the prosecutor's office or public defender, then go into private practice once they know how to effectively practice criminal law.

Quote: teddys

I never make a bet more than the table minimum on anything other than a free bet.
Therefore, my expected loss over say, 30 hours of play should be close to $200.
My actual loss is about 50 times that. I always take max odds on the passline with a couple come bets, also max odds.
Usually I end up making a come bet every roll, with max odds.

If you said this was playing optimally you would be correct.
However, it was a stupid method for me.
I was making bets way out of proportion to my bankroll, and just never saw any upside. I lost just about every session I played. If there are no good or even mediocre shooters, you get cleaned out incredibly quickly.

Technically the don't pass/don't come is ...

You had asked me awhile back to simulate your avg playing session
$1k buy-in
$5/10X odds pass/come every roll
bust or 1k rolls max.
I had run 2 sims but had misplaced the files and just never got back to it.
I thought I read somewhere you kind of knew what to expect.
Maybe you did, maybe you did not.
I found the files since this thread reminded me of that.

I did with and without odds working on the co roll.

Odds NOT working on the cor
(most come bettors do this)
10,000 sessions (~5.4million total dice rolls)
30.02% won
69.95% lost
50.70% busted out
Of the 6,995 that LOST
5,070 (72.48%) busted
6,788 (97.04%) ended up losing $500 or more

mean -$35.92
SD $1649.46

My comment here:
so a EV + 2*SD bankroll (for a 1 in 20 session bust rate)
$3336
Way Underfunded at $1000
Those that push the lowest house edge and max odds, lots of variance,
also forget to mention how important the proper bankroll is and what kind of bankroll should be used.


The always working odds sessions
10,000 sessions
28.53% won
71.45% lost
50.59% busted out
Of the 7,145 that LOST
5,059 (70.78%)busted
6,939 (97.09%) ended up losing $500 or more
mean -$25.72
SD $1741.78

I also remember you had a big with at Shoot to Win Craps at the El Cortez.
Not a surprise that most of your sessions were losing ones.
The simulations show the same thing when being very underfunded.

Below is what a 1000 bet session could look like underfunded.
Not picking on anyone, just stating why a propr bankroll can easily take away session busts and keep the player in action... for more fun

A typical $100 buy-in with $10 pass and $12 Place6&8 (a 10 unit bankroll)
Not even by the 100th bet a draw-down busted that 10 unit bankroll and look what would have happened with just a 15 unit bankroll.
Missed a few nice runs into positive territory.
of course, there are and will be many ups and downs on average along the way


Good Luck in your future sessions

" No doubt he would try his best, but his best wouldn't hold a candle to what an experienced, savvy lawyer can do."

Been there, done that. Probably is experienced savy lawyers all too often required big retainers and try and plea way too often.

It's not rocket science anyway.. I will agree the big name lawyer has the means to get your case scheduled before the right judge.

I am not saying you need to pay a huge retainer to a big name lawyer to get effective representation; only that you'll get more bang for your buck by hiring someone with experience.

Look at it this way: who would you want to perform brain surgery: a surgeon with 20+ years experience or some gal fresh out of medical school?

Lawyers *used to* learn the ropes by being an associate in a large law firm: the work was fed to them by the partners until they were deemed ready to do it on their own.

But the model has changed: the norm now is for new lawyers to strike out on their own as solo practitioners.

Tough to learn the ropes without a mentor / mentors.

Hey, it's a movie plot. Let's not confuse the issue with reality. LOL

Quote: RaleighCraps

I have been trying for a year now to verbalize that PL /w full odds and CB w/Full odds is not the optimal way to play craps, for 90% of the players. But I could never vocalize why, until recently.
However, naturally the math guys are able to pick this apart in seconds, and I walk away licking my wounds each time.

Yet, I keep seeing the evidence come up that supports my position, that PL and continuous CB just doesn't work,
even though the math says they should.

Nice post, but...
The reason why it "does not work" is the players fault. almost 100%
Too small a bankroll! Yep, you got it right.

They are underfunded. BIG TIME and it ain't no funny...

Most do not show proper bankroll needed to play different methods in Craps.
Math or simulation data.
The Wizard does not. Not even a simple RoR table available.
A few have, like Sally, but the waves have washed them all out to sea.
To show the math just goes over most people's heads.

see this post
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/12558-really-blew-out-my-bankroll/9/#post208658

Sally has some sim data a bit different (pass/10xOdds and max 2 come/10x odds)
would be very simple to duplicate
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/377-how-big-a-bankroll/3/#post152895

Quote: RaleighCraps

1. The first thing that I have been forced to understand is how the buy-in affects the outcome.

I use the wrong technical terms, so I'm not even going to try to name this.
Suffice it to say, that the amount you buy-in with must support the size of the bet you are going to make.
And this is where the free odds fails so many craps players. It is not that the free odds is a bad bet, it is the free odds they take makes their total bet size too large for their buy in. And once you are overbetting your current buy in, the chance of ruin being the result, is increased.
I have spent hours working with WinCraps and what I have learned really opened my eyes. The lower my buy -in the more I manage to lose time after time in simulations. Why? Partly because I bust out, and there is no further chance for recovery. There is much more to this that I cannot explain because I don't understand it yet. But what I have found is, I should be buying in for 4-8x above the amount I currently do.

As you understand bankroll requirements, many do not.
Look how many BJ card counters fall by the way side complaining they just do not win and they lose too much during sessions.
problem: Too small bankroll and not understanding the possible bankroll swings that can and do happen.

The other problem is Craps players have won and sometimes BIG with over-betting small bankrolls.
Now they just think it should continue because they are great Craps players.

Crap

FACT: Only a very few gamblers will ever play with the proper bankroll for their selected bet sizes.
The others will just bitch and moan and blame all the math gurus for their misfortune, that they mostly brought onto themselves.

Good Luck to all, with a proper bankroll,
and the rest you need lots of Good Luck.

Quote: RaleighCraps

3.) Access to your craps game.
A craps player with access to a local game needs to have goals and self rules that are going to be different than someone who visits a craps table every few months.

This is a big one for me. I try to limit my high-action craps play to Vegas, as there are several tribal casinos within about a 40 minute drive for me. I recently made the drive to the closest one and managed to lose $1200 in few hours (when I should have been packing up my old place, to boot!). And I was only betting $5 or $10 on the line, plus odds... (although I do have to confess I threw in a few $1 horn bets).

I'm going to try to severely limit that impulse. Nothing wrong with a few trips here and there, but the comps are nearly worthless for me (don't need a hotel, guess I could see about a free buffet here and there), and I could see it turning into a weekly or monthly trip where I continue to lose money trying to chase the losses.

In any case, save the green-chip action for Vegas where I can drink for free and take in the atmosphere. That's the other major problem: I have to drive to these casinos, and drinks are NOT free (or even that cheap really). That's a big part of my craps experience in Vegas, getting shit faced for $1/drink...

I keep seeing the phrase "free odds bets" in this thread and elsewhere, but increasing variance is not costless. As noted, gamblers don't have an infinite bankroll, but the casino does.

For me, it is helpful to think of it like a financial problem. In finance, you shouldn't care about return, you should only care about risk-adjusted return. Risk is not free, rational investors demand to be compensated for taking on additional risk. Odds bets increase risk with an EV neutral bet.

Personally, the utility that I derive from super low roller odds bets that is greater than the cost of the variance, but I believe that I am the unique case.

Teddy: I too have played pass-odds and continuous come-odds bets for over 100 day trips and it definitely had it highs and lows. It CAN win over many sessions, personally had a small net win average of about $40 per session over about 100 sessions. I had extended winning AND losing streaks, but the net win, even this small net win average, did honestly happen. I did quit playing it after a losing streak at the end, but overall it was a net winner, and will be returning to it as it still beats any place betting scheme.

I played with a 10 shooter session bankroll based on my max dollar exposure for 6 bets, meaning if playing $5 flat and $10 odds then session bankroll was $900 and did play at higher $ levels. The bankroll is critical, most players are underfunded and trying to compete with the unlimited house bankroll is indeed difficult. Craps is a tough game to beat as you know and patience and discipline, a proper bankroll, and lowest house edge bets, gives us a chance.

One more thing, continuous come-odds bets works well on crapsless(no craps) tables. Not losing the flat bets on crap numbers often helps IF get some repeaters on the extreme outside.

Quote: rdw4potus

Well I'm intrigued...Super Bowl? Valentines Day? President's Day?

February 10 is Chinese New Year 4711, Year of the Snake.

Be that Jake the Snake ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g97pMR6JeRg

Quote: Buzzard

Be that Jake the Snake ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g97pMR6JeRg

More like greedy Gweilo that think they see an opportunity.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snake_(zodiac)#THE_SNAKE_ON_VACATION

Quote: Buzzard

Be that Jake the Snake ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g97pMR6JeRg

Jake the Snake?

Excuse me, but how do you have a simulation that runs a negative expectation game to show anything but a loss??

And with a bigger bankroll, doesn't that simply mean a bigger loss on a negative expectation game?

Quote: AlanMendelson

Excuse me, but how do you have a simulation that runs a negative expectation game to show anything but a loss??

And with a bigger bankroll, doesn't that simply mean a bigger loss on a negative expectation game?

Is this actually a serious question? Do you not understand what an -expectation- means?