SACR
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December 19th, 2012 at 11:56:28 PM permalink
Went to Shreveport yesterday morning, arriving at 3:30 am. Buy in at NC craps pit, and shooter to my right sevens out. Dice come to me. My first roll is a hot one, and I fill two racks with chips. When I seven out, I count my chips. I have more than doubled my buy-in, which means I've hit my win goal. However, I've been at the casino for less than an hour, and I didn't drive three hours to turn around and leave after only 45 minutes.

I then spend the next three hours continuing to play, eventually losing $67 back to them.

I colored out still up over double my buy-in, so the negligible loss didn't bother me.

I am curious, though, would you have left the pit after having one big roll? Would you wait until the dice came your way again, to see if you could have another big roll?

I know I'm there to accomplish a goal, but I also like to have some fun and play a little.
sodawater
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December 20th, 2012 at 12:03:52 AM permalink
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SACR
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December 20th, 2012 at 12:09:15 AM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Craps is a negative expectation game, so for me the "goal" would be entertainment, not a monetary win. So I would not have left the casino after the early hot roll. You budgeted a certain amount for craps entertainment, so I would keep playing until you feel you've been entertained or you've exhausted your budget.

It's always nice to take a win, but when playing negative-expectation pit games, I think it's healthier to press bets when winning rather than when losing. So you could have used this as an opportunity to bet more than you normally would have.

Finally, you could have done basically what you did. Put aside your original buy in and some winnings, and play with the rest of the winnings. That's probably the best option in terms of guaranteeing a win and also playing longer.



My problem is that I can never find a pressing strategy that works for me.

I usually just keep making Come bets until I've loaded up the table.

During that roll, I had every number except 3 covered with a Come bet with odds, so I had 8 come bets and the pass line working. Mathematically smart? No. Financially lucrative? Yes.
sodawater
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December 20th, 2012 at 12:11:13 AM permalink
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tringlomane
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December 20th, 2012 at 12:15:32 AM permalink
Considering the drive to the casino, I wouldn't immediately quit. Since I like to book up wins, I probably would bet more conservatively than most after being significantly up. Would I generally recommend that? Probably not.
winmonkeyspit3
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December 20th, 2012 at 12:20:56 AM permalink
It's funny because I ran into this exact same problem yesterday. I had a comped room at the casino and just arrived around 7pm when I hit the craps table. I made almost 300 dollars (bought in for 500) in a matter of 15 minutes and 3 or 4 rolls. Sadly, as I was staying over I continued to play house games against my better judgement until 2am, then again during the next morning/early afternoon. I walked out the door with 100 dollars. I brought 500 to the casino being totally willing to lose it if I caught negative variance. It's the fact that I had 800 dollars in my wallet at one point that makes this one sting. It's not the fact that I lost that is bothering me, it's the fact that I could have left ahead 60% but didn't have the "discipline" to call it quits when ahead, or when I got back to even for that matter. It's tough.
SACR
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December 20th, 2012 at 12:24:40 AM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Well, it's easy. Make come backs and max out the odds. If that's still not enough money on the table for you, increase the size of your come bets.

Also -- I don't know what you are talking about with regard to your come bets. You say you had 8 come bets and every number except 3. The only numbers than can be covered by come bets are 4 5 6 8 9 and 10. So if you have all those and an existing come bet, that's seven. 2, 3, and 12 cannot be covered by come bets.



Go back and read my original post.

NC craps = No Craps craps.

2, 3, 11, and 12 are all possible points in NC craps, so you have 9 possible come bets. If I have a pass line bet and every number except 3, that makes 8 come bets.
winmonkeyspit3
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December 20th, 2012 at 12:30:22 AM permalink
Quote: SACR

Quote: sodawater

Well, it's easy. Make come backs and max out the odds. If that's still not enough money on the table for you, increase the size of your come bets.

Also -- I don't know what you are talking about with regard to your come bets. You say you had 8 come bets and every number except 3. The only numbers than can be covered by come bets are 4 5 6 8 9 and 10. So if you have all those and an existing come bet, that's seven. 2, 3, and 12 cannot be covered by come bets.



Go back and read my original post.

NC craps = No Craps craps.

2, 3, 11, and 12 are all possible points in NC craps, so you have 9 possible come bets. If I have a pass line bet and every number except 3, that makes 8 come bets.



Interesting twist. NC Craps carries an over 4% House edge on the passline bets (and thus all of your come bets), so that should have an affect on whether or not you should stick around the table as well.
odiousgambit
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December 20th, 2012 at 12:34:11 AM permalink
Quote: SACR

My problem is that I can never find a pressing strategy that works for me.

I usually just keep making Come bets until I've loaded up the table.



sounds like me. But anymore I want to feel things are going my way before loading it up; in more normal situations I might have one come bet going or not.

Quote: SACR

During that roll, I had every number except 3 covered with a Come bet with odds, so I had 8 come bets and the pass line working. Mathematically smart? No. Financially lucrative? Yes.



[edited out some things]

As far as the math goes, the Wizard has convinced me the strategy does not favor the house as compared to making the same number of bets on the line. Of course, what usually it means is that you are making more bets, and the house likes that. [g]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SACR
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December 20th, 2012 at 12:39:22 AM permalink
Quote: winmonkeyspit3

It's funny because I ran into this exact same problem yesterday. I had a comped room at the casino and just arrived around 7pm when I hit the craps table. I made almost 300 dollars (bought in for 500) in a matter of 15 minutes and 3 or 4 rolls. Sadly, as I was staying over I continued to play house games against my better judgement until 2am, then again during the next morning/early afternoon. I walked out the door with 100 dollars. I brought 500 to the casino being totally willing to lose it if I caught negative variance. It's the fact that I had 800 dollars in my wallet at one point that makes this one sting. It's not the fact that I lost that is bothering me, it's the fact that I could have left ahead 60% but didn't have the "discipline" to call it quits when ahead, or when I got back to even for that matter. It's tough.



By house games, do you mean other casino games? I only play craps, so when I leave the pit, I'm done gambling until my next session.

When I stay overnight, I actually have an easier time leaving the pit when I'm up. I always bring a book to read and my laptop with me, so I have plenty to keep me occupied in the room. That, and football or basketball or baseball games on television, gives me something to do while I relax in the room.
SACR
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December 20th, 2012 at 12:45:51 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

sounds like me. But anymore I want to feel things are going my way before loading it up; in more normal situations I might have one come bet going or not.



[edited out some things]

As far as the math goes, the Wizard has convinced me the strategy does not favor the house as compared to making the same number of bets on the line. Of course, what usually it means is that you are making more bets, and the house likes that. [g]



I definitely hear you there. My normal starting strategy was to bet until I had 4 come bets with odds going, as that gave me 5 total numbers covered (similar to two come bets and pass line gives you half of numbers covered on regular craps), but I have somehow become so accustomed to going all out, that I just keep making come bets. What I have found is that if it is going to be a good, long roll, I have usually hit a point already in the course of setting up my four come bets. That is usually all it takes for me to be convinced everything is in my favor, and loading it all up. When I decide to go conservative, though, I will only stick with four come bets.
winmonkeyspit3
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December 20th, 2012 at 12:47:17 AM permalink
Quote: SACR

Quote: winmonkeyspit3

It's funny because I ran into this exact same problem yesterday. I had a comped room at the casino and just arrived around 7pm when I hit the craps table. I made almost 300 dollars (bought in for 500) in a matter of 15 minutes and 3 or 4 rolls. Sadly, as I was staying over I continued to play house games against my better judgement until 2am, then again during the next morning/early afternoon. I walked out the door with 100 dollars. I brought 500 to the casino being totally willing to lose it if I caught negative variance. It's the fact that I had 800 dollars in my wallet at one point that makes this one sting. It's not the fact that I lost that is bothering me, it's the fact that I could have left ahead 60% but didn't have the "discipline" to call it quits when ahead, or when I got back to even for that matter. It's tough.



By house games, do you mean other casino games? I only play craps, so when I leave the pit, I'm done gambling until my next session.

When I stay overnight, I actually have an easier time leaving the pit when I'm up. I always bring a book to read and my laptop with me, so I have plenty to keep me occupied in the room. That, and football or basketball or baseball games on television, gives me something to do while I relax in the room.



Yes, primarily blackjack. I've only been able to get to the casino about once a month (or less) for the past year, so I tend to go on marathon sessions when I do get there. They generally end badly, yet it's tough to travel all that way and play short sessions.
tringlomane
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December 20th, 2012 at 12:51:52 AM permalink
Just my opinion, but I think it's pretty dumb if you don't gamble at your destination for at least the round-trip travel time it took to get there.
SACR
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December 20th, 2012 at 1:11:23 AM permalink
Quote: winmonkeyspit3

Quote: SACR

Quote: winmonkeyspit3

It's funny because I ran into this exact same problem yesterday. I had a comped room at the casino and just arrived around 7pm when I hit the craps table. I made almost 300 dollars (bought in for 500) in a matter of 15 minutes and 3 or 4 rolls. Sadly, as I was staying over I continued to play house games against my better judgement until 2am, then again during the next morning/early afternoon. I walked out the door with 100 dollars. I brought 500 to the casino being totally willing to lose it if I caught negative variance. It's the fact that I had 800 dollars in my wallet at one point that makes this one sting. It's not the fact that I lost that is bothering me, it's the fact that I could have left ahead 60% but didn't have the "discipline" to call it quits when ahead, or when I got back to even for that matter. It's tough.



By house games, do you mean other casino games? I only play craps, so when I leave the pit, I'm done gambling until my next session.

When I stay overnight, I actually have an easier time leaving the pit when I'm up. I always bring a book to read and my laptop with me, so I have plenty to keep me occupied in the room. That, and football or basketball or baseball games on television, gives me something to do while I relax in the room.



Yes, primarily blackjack. I've only been able to get to the casino about once a month (or less) for the past year, so I tend to go on marathon sessions when I do get there. They generally end badly, yet it's tough to travel all that way and play short sessions.



I find blackjack boring, so I don't play it. I understand what you mean about having a hard time playing short sessions, but I like to leave after making money. Better to leave wondering if you could have won more than to be angry later because you lost what you had already won.
sodawater
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December 20th, 2012 at 2:07:37 AM permalink
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SACR
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December 20th, 2012 at 2:42:31 AM permalink
yes, there is

I only play it if the NC pit is closed.
RaleighCraps
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December 20th, 2012 at 5:49:58 AM permalink
Quote:

Craps is a negative expectation game...



I have started to hate this quote, and it is my new pet peeve, along with people saying they crapped out shooting at the point, instead of 7 out.
When I go to play craps, I have positive expectations . I expect to win. Otherwise, why play?

I understand the house has the edge, and the math says over time, I am going to lose. But, every time I step up to the table, craps is a positive expectation game for me. I positively expect to win.

Now to the thread topic.

Having a win goal is great, but as you discovered, you also have to have an exit strategy. AND, you have to make sure your win goal, and your desired length of play, also mesh together. Otherwise, you are faced making a last second decision while you are standing at the craps table, and if you are like me, your decision will always be to stay, which you may later regret.

I have decided on the following strategy. It is not the most profitable, but it works for giving me lots of play, most of the time.
First my win goal basically becomes break even. I finally decided I am happy anytime I can come back home with what I took to the casino.
This frees me up to try and accomplish my second goal, the BIG win.
So I am always swinging for the home run. Some trips it costs me my profit, some trips end up losing when I was up, but it has also led to my biggest booked win, and on the last trip, I was up the highest amount I have ever been up, before I had a brain meltdown.
One of these trips I am going to connect with my home run swing, and book a nice 10K win. :-)
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
DeMango
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December 20th, 2012 at 7:33:23 AM permalink
I thought the edge on the pass line/come bet at crapless was -5.66% no? If so then making come bets is a terrible idea. Why do you play crapless? For the extremes right? So buy them at $25@. Then, if you must, buy every number after it hits (place 6 or 8), to mimic the come action. Then all those numbers can be increased upon hitting if you so desire.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
midwestgb
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December 20th, 2012 at 7:48:16 AM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

I have started to hate this quote, and it is my new pet peeve, along with people saying they crapped out shooting at the point, instead of 7 out.
When I go to play craps, I have positive expectations . I expect to win. Otherwise, why play?

I understand the house has the edge, and the math says over time, I am going to lose. But, every time I step up to the table, craps is a positive expectation game for me. I positively expect to win.

...

One of these trips I am going to connect with my home run swing, and book a nice 10K win. :-)



You just hit a Walk-off Homer with these thoughts my friend... ;-)
TIMSPEED
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December 20th, 2012 at 8:28:47 AM permalink
Personally, if I'm driving that far to a casino...I'm staying the night. (ie: Reno is 3 hours away; I always at least stay one night)
I HAVE drove to a casino, hit $100 within like the first two minutes, went and had the buffet, then went home...(it was 1½ hours each way; the $100 paid for buffet and gas)
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
mwalz9
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December 20th, 2012 at 8:46:48 AM permalink
I also play craps for fun. My strategy is to usually take a $200 buy in and play at a $5 table. It's 1 1/2 hours to my nearest casino so I would not want to go shoot once and leave. If what happened to the Op happened to me, I would have put my $200 buy in in my pocket and played a bit longer with the winnings. When I hit the casino I like to play for 2-3 hours. If I break even, I'm happy as can be that I just got 2-3 hours of free entertainment. If I win, thats all just icing on the cake.
sodawater
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December 20th, 2012 at 12:53:45 PM permalink
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SACR
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December 20th, 2012 at 3:04:59 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

well this is crazy if your goal is to make money. because regular craps gives you a way better chance to double your money than crapless craps. so sounds like you just enjoy the crapless game more - hence, entertainment



For whatever reason, I find I shoot better on the NC pit b/c it is longer than a regular pit, which is why I prefer to play it. I do like the larger payouts associated with the 2 and 12, so yes, there is a big factor of entertainment with me, although I can also watch or play regular craps for hours on end.

After a winning session on NC craps, I will often color out and go watch the regular pit to see how everyone is doing.

I also disagree that regular craps gives you a better chance to double your money. Because of the higher payouts associated with NC craps, you have a better chance of doubling your money in a session. I know what the math says, but we're not talking about a lifetime of rolls here, we're talking about somewhere between 30 minutes to a few hours.
dfens
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December 20th, 2012 at 3:29:32 PM permalink
After a monster roll I'll always play at least two more shooters. But if nothing is hitting I'll either leave, slow down my bets to either passline or just bet a single don't come. I wouldn't wait for the dice to come back especially if the table is full.

If I really want to kill time I'll head over to a video poker machine. If they have 9/6 JOB at quarters I'll play it slowly.

Lastly, I don't mind sitting at a lounge or bar if they have one to kill time when I'm way up and my friends still want to gamble. The satisfaction of locking in a big win overrides my need for gambling entertainment.
FleaStiff
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December 20th, 2012 at 4:53:29 PM permalink
Your time effort and expectations have too much value for you to simply turn on your heel and walk out after having so promptly met your goal.

YOu did fairly well considering it Crapless Craps.

I'd "press' by increasing bets next time even if its only a rather modest press.
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