Is there such a concept of "advantage play" at craps that tells you to avoid cold tables?
Quote: SanchoPanza...The skill is learning as much as possible about the realities of the game, including what to look out for and what to avoid. Including the key move a bettor can make--leaving the table....
Sancho you made a very intriguing comment... about leaving the table.
Did you know that there are a group of video poker players who call themselves "advantage players" because they say they have an edge at the game? They say they have an edge from a combination of a "positive paytable" and associated comps such as cash back, free play, etc. And because of this positive edge they say there is no reason to quit playing video poker. In other words, they have the edge on each and every hand or play and it makes no difference when they leave -- and the only reason to leave is that you are tired or have to eat or go to the restroom or shower.... or whatever. Otherwise they reject all ideas about what we craps players have experienced which include cold streaks, cold tables, quitting when ahead, loss limits.
All of those concepts and I will repeat them here are absolutely poohpoohed by the "advantage video poker" crowd:
quitting when reaching a win goal
quitting when reaching a loss limit
cold tables
cold shooters
unlucky streaks
I think a big part of playing craps is knowing when to press your bets, when to quit after a hot roll, when to leave when the table is cold, and money management. The video poker "APs" will say thats a good idea at craps because it is a negative expectation game... but not when you have an edge at craps.
So let me ask this question: if ever there were a layout that included a positive edge for the player (heck, I don't even know if that is possible) could you adapt the strategy of the video poker advantage players who just keep on playing till they are too tired to play?
Gee , I had to check who posted that? for some reason the name, John Patrick, popped into my head !
Quote: AlanMendelsonSo let me ask this question: if ever there were a layout that included a positive edge for the player (heck, I don't even know if that is possible) could you adapt the strategy of the video poker advantage players who just keep on playing till they are too tired to play?
Yes. Place the bets that give you a positive edge, according to the Kelly criterion, until you get tired.
Quote: AlanMendelsonSo let me ask this question: if ever there were a layout that included a positive edge for the player (heck, I don't even know if that is possible) could you adapt the strategy of the video poker advantage players who just keep on playing till they are too tired to play?
IMO, the only possible way to get an edge would be to be that good in controlling the dice. Or cheat. But if you had the edge, the same principles would apply.
The real trick is knowing when a table will turn hot or cold. Good luck with that one too.
When these occur, just play the don'ts. No need to quit if you really are clairvoyant enough to know when these things are going to happen.Quote: AlanMendelson...cold tables
cold shooters
unlucky streaks...
FYI: As I recall, it is the Santa Ana casino that pays triple for a field on both the 2 and 12, as well as allowing 'buy' bets on the 4 and 10 for free. These are all zero edge bets. On a related note, when you're there, if you buy the 4 or 10, do you say "buy" or "free"? :)
Quote: DJTeddyBearEven if you would earn comps for those bets, I think it would be hard for a craps player to stand there and play only those bets.
There all sorts of things that are possible but not easy, or not worthwhile. Exploring them tells you whether or not they're worth the effort, money or time. Personally I'd be bored making only field bets and buying the 4 and 10, and even with comps the expectation might not be worth it.
But it might be possible.
It's like card counting. It can work in BJ, but it's not worthwhile in Baccarat.
I think a big allure to the game is that when you get really lucky, and you bet according to what you feel is going to happen and you are right about it, you win at the same time that you felt as if you were able to predict what was going to happen.
This doesn't happen for people who just bet a consistent strategy. Those people do get bored and what-not.
But if you try to predict what roll is going to happen, you actually have a very different game in the mind of the player that is more engaging and entertaining.
Many people enjoy trying to predict the future based on the past and patterns of what has happened.
Craps and Baccarat share this component of leveraging the human brain's natural ability to detect and exploit patterns.
Those who don't believe that there are patterns in dice or Baccarat shoes won't find any entertainment value here due to their belief systems.
Everyone else, however, has a more enjoyable experience with their belief system that is considered by the intellectuals as an inferier system of beliefs.
I think the inferior individual could also be defined by how happy the individual is.
Nobody kills themselves for believing they can predict the future. But lots of people do for feelings of hopelessness, unhappiness, loneliness, and so on.
The only legitimate return on investment for a gambling game is entertainment value. If you're not entertained by playing, don't play.
As far as advantage play based on following trends on craps or Baccarat, I don't think there's any reputable information on that subject that I know of.
Quote: AhighI think a big allure to the game is that when you get really lucky, and you bet according to what you feel is going to happen and you are right about it, you win at the same time that you felt as if you were able to predict what was going to happen.
...
Those who don't believe that there are patterns in dice or Baccarat shoes won't find any entertainment value here due to their belief systems.
I, personally, don't think there are genuine patterns in the dice rolls, but I do get entertainment from the game.
I even find some entertainment from the folks who can "feel" the future and call all of their bets down for the next roll after the dice leave the table. I've seen a lot of them save themselves money when that Big Red pops up on that roll. I think it happens something like one time in six, on average.
Quote: DocI, personally, don't think there are genuine patterns in the dice rolls, but I do get entertainment from the game.
I even find some entertainment from the folks who can "feel" the future and call all of their bets down for the next roll after the dice leave the table. I've seen a lot of them save themselves money when that Big Red pops up on that roll. I think it happens something like one time in six, on average.
Doc, as I think you suggest, you don't have to have a firm belief in patterns, just entertaining the belief is enough to use it as a catalyst to enjoy the game more.
I think that the mindset of the typical person on this forum is that there is more entertainment value in mocking people who have these beliefs than there is in entertaining the belief for the purpose of socializing with more run-of-the-mill average people at the table.
Quote: NareedHow about the New Mexico casinos that offer some zero-edge bets? I forget the exact bets, but a zero edge plus comps would seem to be positive to me. Asumming, naturally, that you can play only those bets and doing so will count for comps.
Some casinos offer 3/3 field bets, which have no edge, and to buy the 4/10 for free, resulting in no edge. However, my guess would be that like odds, they don't comp these bets at all, and may or may not allow it to be bet alone. The reason comps can make up for the edge in video poker is that most players don't play perfectly, so on the whole, the house is making their usual multiple of the comps. There's no way to make a "mistake" on a dice wager.
Quote: 24BingoYes. Place the bets that give you a positive edge, according to the Kelly criterion.
Which craps bets carry a "positive edge"?
Biased outcomes are as likely to work against the player as they are for the player.
All dice are biased at a microscopic level. Let's not go into proving it, but they are.
Players slam dice into the mirrors and burn corners to get bias.
It works, and the casinos know about it.
But exploiting it requires you know exactly what the bias you are going to get will be.
Quote: AhighI once made the remark that if you could predict the future, this game would reveal your ability pretty quickly.
Every time I get the dice I predict that my hand will finish with a 7-out. Over the past 13 years -- since I started playing craps -- my prediction has come true all but one time.
The one time it didn't come true was when I took a date to Vegas and we arrived about 2-am and our room wasn't ready yet. So we went to the craps table. She was exhausted from the drive so she sat in a chair, trying to stay awake. I got the dice and went on what could have been the roll of a lifetime. But about 15 minutes into the roll, the night manager came to the table and said "sorry for the delay your room is ready now." And the girlfriend took the dice out of my hands and handed them to the dealer and grabbed my chips out of the rail and said "let's go."
"But my bets on the table!"
"Leave them," she said.
"But I can't." So the dealers quickly colored me up, and we went upstairs. The only time my hand didn't finish with a seven-out. Oh, the passline bet was left "for the dealers."
But I like passing the dice in the middle of a roll.
Quote: DJTeddyBearOn a related note, when you're there, if you buy the 4 or 10, do you say "buy" or "free"? :)
You don't have to say anything.
You: (throws the dealer 2 red chips) Place the 4 & 10 for $5 each, please.
Next roll of Dice: Ten.
Dealer: Slides two $5 Dollar chips to you.
You: Thanks!
The role of the SEVEN plays good guy, bad guy, depending when its rolled.
From my experience and success, the SEVEN is more bad then good, especially when we talk advantage play.
In looking at the issue of why I find DONT Pass more successful:
The DONT crap player has a positive expectation once getting-up against the number 4,5,6,8,9, or 10.
However the disadvantage is trying to get up on one of these numbers.
A 7 ( 1 out 6 ) or 11 (1 out 18) presents a hurdle versus the 2, ( 1 out of 36) 3, ( 1 out 18) which are Winners for the DONT and a push on the 12 (1 out 36).
After that .. the numbers 4,5,6,8,9, and 10 favor the DONT.
Come out ROLL:
Number 7 (16.6 %) loser for the Dont
Number 11 ( 5.5 % ) loser for the Dont
Number 12 ( 2.7 % ) push for the Dont
Number 2 ( 2.7 %) winner for the Dont
Number 3 ( 5.5 %) winner for the Dont
Number 4 or 10 ( 2 to 1 positive expectation for the Dont )
Number 5 or 9 ( 3 to 2 positive expectation for the Dont )
Number 6 or 8 ( 6 to 5 positive expectation for the Dont )
But this is only part of the story, because we know the dice with short term deviations can wreck havoc on any advantage/probability scheme.
So I employ a rule of not letting the same shooter beat me more than twice.
Which by the way is another advantage we have over the house
We bet what numbers we want to, when we want to, stop or quit any time we want to, bet the DO side or DONT side . and the casino is always there fading the action because they beleive they have the advantage.
One question to remember . is why does the casino let you remove your DONT bet anytime against the number ?
House disadvantage !
There are a couple of opportunities where you get can get advantages or at least a zero house edge in craps.
(1) Piling on someone else's odds (my favorite)
(2) Hedging the fifth and sixth point of a fire bet.
Everything else in craps is running in the casino's favor.
Quote: boymimbothe fifth and sixth point of a fire bet.
How is this an advantage?
If a don't player likes to take his 6s and 8s down, try to get the spot behind him, strike up a conversation, and try to buy them from him. It works better if you are playing the don't too (it can create an "us against them" mentality, making you "friends")
Quote: boymimbo(2) Hedging the fifth and sixth point of a fire bet.
Nope, this is still negative. That bet that's in play has a positive expected value now, but it's already in play. Any hedge you make is a separate bet, and only going to deduct from it.
Look: let's say you've got a dollar on the fire bet, and four points have hit. It's the Wizard's pay table A, so you're guaranteed to have turned that $1 into $25. You have $5 on the pass line, and the come-out roll is a 4, which will make 5 points, so you now have a one in three chance of getting at least $230 more, and a two out of three chance of losing $5. Say, then, you pay to lay $120, commission on win only, so in the two out of three chance it doesn't hit, you'll get $52 dollars, but if it does, you'll only get $110. (Ignore the further potential to win another $750, since that's the same either way.)
$230*(1/3) - $5*(2/3), or $52*(2/3) + $110*(1/3)? You've lost, on average, two dollars, just like any other time you were to bet $120 that way.
Quote: TinhornGambler
So I employ a rule of not letting the same shooter beat me more than twice.
Which by the way is another advantage we have over the house
We bet what numbers we want to, when we want to, stop or quit any time we want to, bet the DO side or DONT side . and the casino is always there fading the action because they beleive they have the advantage.
Do you actually believe that if a shooter has beaten you twice, that your 'rule' of not letting the shooter beat you a third time is 'an advantage' over the house?
The casino doesn't 'believe' they have the advantage, they know it!
There are no advantage play bets to craps.
But craps offers free bets. Combined with the fact that you can throw the dice, and any decent person in the pit will admit this fact:
Casinos have exposure from the craps table
On slot machines and many other table games, there is no such exposure.
But that's different from advantage play.
People can get lucky playing craps even after playing for a really long time because if the majority of the action is on free bets, luck is the only differentiator between winning and losing on the free bets. And that's where the exposure is.
That's my perspective on advantage play: the casino just doesn't have the advantage it normally has is your advantage.
YES, my not getting beaten twice on the Dont rule does not give me an advantage.
Its more of money management strategy .
The advantage I was more elating to refers to the players ability to pick the spots to take on the casino; when and with method, stopping or quitting when we want to.
I can control my DONT losses . while the house losses cannot in the short term.
Beating the casino in my belief is done short term with some guidelines.
The house advantage does not change as you mentioned The casino doesn't 'believe' they have the advantage, they know it!
But more importantly what does . is the deviation from the norm which many plan to take advantage of.
As I mentioned in my original post . Ive been more successful on the DONT
and avoiding those right side streaks greater than twice is just part of my plan.
Long term the difference between the Pass right-side or Dont Pass is minuscule, and the house has its advantage and nothing we do will change that.
However the topic of the thread .. Is there such a concept of "advantage play" at craps that tells you to avoid cold tables?
i say .... why avoid it, take advantage of it.
If there is, it's in a book written by John Patrick.
Quote: TinhornGambler
However the topic of the thread .. Is there such a concept of "advantage play" at craps that tells you to avoid cold tables?
i say .... why avoid it, take advantage of it.
There is no advantage play at a craps table (unless you include comps in your calculations). All bets either favor the house, or, are no net gain or loss (odds bets). So there is nothing to take 'advantage' of. A table may have been cold, but at the moment you start, the 'coldness' or hotness' of the table is yet to be determined. If you believe the previous rolls will make the next rolls more likely to win, then I can't help you.
"If everyone only played minimum Pass/DontPass, with Maximum Allowed Odds; the casino could not offer craps."
I can't believe this is true, because even though it's a fair bet (the odds) it still doesn't say you'll win/lose.
IMHO, another way the casino is limiting their exposure on craps; is by having a relatively low table max (at least the places I play; where the max payout is $7000)
If a table got really hot and there were a couple decent sized betters (black action) they could get on some payouts that paid $10k per shot and really do damage to the casino (if a small joint lost $100k in one night on the crap table, it'd be really hurting)
Quote: TIMSPEEDI once heard:
"If everyone only played minimum Pass/DontPass, with Maximum Allowed Odds; the casino could not offer craps."
I can't believe this is true, because even though it's a fair bet (the odds) it still doesn't say you'll win/lose.
I believe it. If everyone bets $5 Pass/DP and odds and nothing else, the casino wouldn't be able to keep the lights on. And if they raised the minimum too much, they'd lose a lot of players. It just couldn't work for them.
A point gets resolved every 2.709091 rolls. Assume that the box is aggressive and everyone is only playing point and odds. Assume a full 14 spots are being taken and everyone is betting that pass with full odds bet. Well odds don't matter, because the expected value is zero.
Because there is no middle action and no other action, the dice get thrown and returned to the player. Say that it would take about 30 seconds to pay a resolved bet and to setup a new bet. If the bet is not resolved, it would take say 15 seconds to do a roll. At that rate, the casino would pull off a blistering 175 rolls per hour with approximately 64 bets resolved. We'll say 65.
The expected value of the pass line is 1.414%. So, the take on each pass line bet is $.01414 for every dollar bet. Over an hour that adds up to $.91 per dollar bet. To make that money, the table would have to be betting an average of $50.04 on the passline (collectively) to pay the employees. A full table at $5 accomplishes that, earning $64.34/hour.
That's assuming a full table, playing only the pass line.
Quote: jc2286I believe it. If everyone bets $5 Pass/DP and odds and nothing else, the casino wouldn't be able to keep the lights on. And if they raised the minimum too much, they'd lose a lot of players. It just couldn't work for them.
Well, at JANugget in Reno...I would say the crap table is $2 minimum and maybe has action for a total of 10 hours on the weekend (5 hours each weekend night fri/sat) but is staffed 24/7 (sometimes even 3 dealers, rather than just two...never "tubbed" with just one dealer)
So...tell me...how are they "keeping the lights on" with that crap table?
Quote: boymimboConsider that you are paying 3 stick and a box minimum wage of $8.25/hour, and even if the crap table could get away with a three person table, you're still looking at payroll costs alone of $24.75/hour. But let's say for argument a full table and therefore 4 person staff: $33/hour. Add to that a pit boss who is probably spending 1/6th of their time overlooking that table and surveillance who is is spending 1/6th of their time looking at that table. So, add another $8 / hour. And there are some benefits as well, say 10% of payroll, so you're looking at $46/hour.
A point gets resolved every 2.709091 rolls. Assume that the box is aggressive and everyone is only playing point and odds. Assume a full 14 spots are being taken and everyone is betting that pass with full odds bet. Well odds don't matter, because the expected value is zero.
Because there is no middle action and no other action, the dice get thrown and returned to the player. Say that it would take about 30 seconds to pay a resolved bet and to setup a new bet. If the bet is not resolved, it would take say 15 seconds to do a roll. At that rate, the casino would pull off a blistering 175 rolls per hour with approximately 64 bets resolved. We'll say 65.
The expected value of the pass line is 1.414%. So, the take on each pass line bet is $.01414 for every dollar bet. Over an hour that adds up to $.91 per dollar bet. To make that money, the table would have to be betting an average of $50.04 on the passline (collectively) to pay the employees. A full table at $5 accomplishes that, earning $64.34/hour.
That's assuming a full table, playing only the pass line.
Ok, but there is a ton more to overhead than employee payroll.
Quote: boymimboThe expected value of the pass line is 1.414%. So, the take on each pass line bet is $.01414 for every dollar bet. Over an hour that adds up to $.91 per dollar bet. To make that money, the table would have to be betting an average of $50.04 on the passline (collectively) to pay the employees. A full table at $5 accomplishes that, earning $64.34/hour.
That's assuming a full table, playing only the pass line.
OK, I agree with you ideas...but how would a casino, then, LOSE money on a crap table, consistently...and continue? Just stupidity?
Quote: TIMSPEEDWell, at JANugget in Reno...I would say the crap table is $2 minimum and maybe has action for a total of 10 hours on the weekend (5 hours each weekend night fri/sat) but is staffed 24/7 (sometimes even 3 dealers, rather than just two...never "tubbed" with just one dealer)
So...tell me...how are they "keeping the lights on" with that crap table?
I wouldn't think that they could, if that were the only game running and people were betting close to the minimum on only "good" bets... which is what this hypothetical is about - people betting only minimum amount on pass/don't. In reality people play higher and make much worse bets.
Quote: jc2286I wouldn't think that they could, if that were the only game running and people were betting close to the minimum on only "good" bets.
No, they have BJ, 3CP and PGP...so are you saying those other games "carry" the crap table...and they just leave it open in HOPES to garner more money? (Because like I said, a good 80% of the time it has ZERO action, and the other 20% is just white and some red action)
Quote: TIMSPEEDNo, they have BJ, 3CP and PGP...so are you saying those other games "carry" the crap table...and they just leave it open in HOPES to garner more money? (Because like I said, a good 80% of the time it has ZERO action, and the other 20% is just white and some red action)
I edited my post to add more. But, if a craps table played out like in this hypothetical, it could possibly act as a loss leader, yeah... that is how poker is in a lot of venues.
Quote: jc2286I edited my post to add more. But, if a craps table played out like in this hypothetical, it could possibly act as a loss leader, yeah... that is how poker is in a lot of venues.
I saw the edit...I would imagine it is a loss leader...but a few people basically come and "carry" the table ($1000 in the field LOSS, $1000 Iron Cross LOSS) so their losses make up for the rest of the time...
EDIT: I just ran the numbers, and it LOOKS like if the daily drop on the table is $706, they're in the clear...but what covers it, is the MONTHLY drop, of $19776....I routinely watch a guy play through $10k just making FIELD bets probably 2x a month...so there's the employee costs...any other money they get to drop is just pure profit.
Wow, and come to think of it...a friend of mine won $16k a few weeks ago...that puts a SERIOUS hurtin' on their monthly profit sheet...
when you start to add in place bets, come bets, etc, things get quite complex and the rolls per hour go down, but the HA goes up as well.
Quote: boymimboConsider that you are paying 3 stick and a box minimum wage of $8.25/hour, and even if the crap table could get away with a three person table, you're still looking at payroll costs alone of $24.75/hour. But let's say for argument a full table and therefore 4 person staff: $33/hour. Add to that a pit boss who is probably spending 1/6th of their time overlooking that table and surveillance who is is spending 1/6th of their time looking at that table. So, add another $8 / hour. And there are some benefits as well, say 10% of payroll, so you're looking at $46/hour.
A point gets resolved every 2.709091 rolls. Assume that the box is aggressive and everyone is only playing point and odds. Assume a full 14 spots are being taken and everyone is betting that pass with full odds bet. Well odds don't matter, because the expected value is zero.
Because there is no middle action and no other action, the dice get thrown and returned to the player. Say that it would take about 30 seconds to pay a resolved bet and to setup a new bet. If the bet is not resolved, it would take say 15 seconds to do a roll. At that rate, the casino would pull off a blistering 175 rolls per hour with approximately 64 bets resolved. We'll say 65.
The expected value of the pass line is 1.414%. So, the take on each pass line bet is $.01414 for every dollar bet. Over an hour that adds up to $.91 per dollar bet. To make that money, the table would have to be betting an average of $50.04 on the passline (collectively) to pay the employees. A full table at $5 accomplishes that, earning $64.34/hour.
That's assuming a full table, playing only the pass line.
No free drinks? Your casino sucks :)
Quote: Axiom of Choice
Welcome to Canada, where the casino workers are unionized and the drinks are not free, but the facilities are smoke-free.----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
From your posts I sense that you have a dim view that Craps can be beaten, no matter what.
I guess it is just my imagination that I see players WINNING.
The house advantage did this how can that be.
I believe you views are negative toward craps, and are expressed in terms that highlight the casinos advantage over the reality of the game where you do have a chance to WIN short term regardless of the house advantage toll.
If Im going into a game and the dealer says its been cold or its dumping, I do not fight the issue. I rather rationalize that the momentum will continue.
Its better than your scenario quote " So there is nothing to take 'advantage' of. A table may have been cold, but at the moment you start, the 'coldness' or hotness' of the table is yet to be determined. If you believe the previous rolls will make the next rolls more likely to win, then I can't help.
WOW . You cant help me because playing without some sort of direction is like I coulda, maybe I shoulda yeah if I only woulda.
Either you bet with the dice, against the dice. or sit on the side lines and dont play.
The long term math indicates craps has some of the best bets in the casino, you can look at the negatives, but Im looking at the positives.
Quote: TinhornGamblerI rather rationalize that the momentum will continue.
I understand that you may feel that. I just don't see how you can rationalize it.
You are correct that a player has a chance to win in the short term. That just does not mean at all that a player has an advantage.
