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100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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October 5th, 2012 at 3:22:58 PM permalink
3/4/5x odds
i play Dark so odds are always 6x my flat bet.
ie: $50 flat/$300 odds

if the point was a 5, i win $250 when a 7 rolls.
The problem are 7's and 11's on the Passline roll. I lose 20% (50/250) when each time.

I had a combination of Six 7's and 11's before the point was established. Basically I just lost an entire bet and then some.

Now i'm thinking of playing $50 Passline instead.
Math says there's neglible difference in the HE.

But why am i thinking it's harder to win this way? and/or requires a bigger bankroll? Agree/disagree? WHY?
(Dark = 5x what I put on the table. $25/150odds = $875 bankroll)
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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October 5th, 2012 at 3:50:59 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Math says there's neglible difference in the HE.

Also EV (expected value) and standard deviation.

Quote: 100xOdds

But why am i thinking it's harder to win this way?

From your empirical data.
Stop thinking and just play.

Quote: 100xOdds

and/or requires a bigger bankroll?
Agree/disagree?
WHY?
(Dark = 5x what I put on the table. $25/150odds = $875 bankroll)

The bigger bankroll is really only for small bankrolls and larger average bets.(Less Bankroll units)
I think this thread has some on it.
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/4661-bankroll-for-dont-pass-vs-passline/


But for hitting win goals (say double over a session or lifetime),
the bankroll units is what really matters.

Take your $875 Bankroll with $25 flat bets
That is a 35 unit bankroll
$1 million sessions simulated
All bets are a single unit
added:(Play until Bankroll is Doubled or Bust out trying)

Player-Pass 345X odds
Avg. Unit bet with Odds = 3.78
Avg. Total amount bet . = 56.89
Avg. amount bet on Odds = 149.04
Bankroll was busted . . = 52.697% of the time ( 526974)
Win goal was met . . . = 47.303% of the time ( 473026)
Avg (mean) end bankroll = 34.17 (change of -0.83)
Std-dev ending bankroll = 36.10
Play until Bankroll is Tripled or Bust out trying
Bankroll was busted . . = 68.639% of the time ( 686390)
Win goal was met . . . = 31.361% of the time ( 313610)

Player-Don't Pass 345X odds
Avg. Unit bet with Odds = 5.00
Avg. Total amount bet . = 58.51
Avg. amount bet on Odds = 211.31
Bankroll was busted . . = 52.352% of the time ( 523521)
Win goal was met . . . = 47.648% of the time ( 476479)
Avg (mean) end bankroll = 34.19 (change of -0.81)
Std-dev ending bankroll = 35.85
Play until Bankroll is Tripled or Bust out trying
Bankroll was busted . . = 68.773% of the time ( 687734)
Win goal was met . . . = 31.227% of the time ( 312266)


The only real difference is how much is bet on the odds,
and we know the Don't player in order to lay max odds must risk more.

End result, about the same.

Summary: with the same starting bankroll and win goals,
the results (from betting Pass or Don't Pass with odds)
are just about the same
unless you do not think they are
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
24Bingo
24Bingo
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October 5th, 2012 at 4:44:48 PM permalink
The difference in the variance is negligible (it's slightly lower on don't), since the results, other than at midnight, are the same with the sign switched, and the means are so close.

Where the difference lies is in the "skew." The don't odds have a negative skew, whereas the pass odds have a positive one (+/- .4115 cubic units; the line bet's is a negligible I-can't-be-arsed-but-it's-close-to-the-EV's-value in both cases), which means that since your losses are bigger on the don't, the cumulative probability of a loss approaches the normal from below, whereas that of a win approaches from above, so after the first few trials, you're more likely to be ahead from don't pass odds than pass odds (not counting the line).

EDIT: ZZZZ...
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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October 5th, 2012 at 5:46:21 PM permalink
the irritation going right bettor becomes all those losing streaks trying to make your point. Losing streaks are likely to be longer, more demoralizing losing streaks than playing the Don't. They are to me anyway, I seem to be able to tune out the fact that darkside you get paid less than even money.

So you can easily change one set of frustrations for another ... which is not to say either side can't be exhilarating when things go right!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
ahiromu
ahiromu
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October 5th, 2012 at 7:24:38 PM permalink
My biggest issue with the dark side is if you hit a serious bad round of variance (4-5 points in a row) it's a really difficult and long journey to get back to even.

With the light side, you can lose four points in a row then get back to even after three wins.

This is a sample size of one kind of situation, you need to remember the big picture and the way you like to play. We all have bad sessions and bad nights, just remember what happened when you win a couple thousand the next.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
100xOdds
100xOdds
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October 6th, 2012 at 5:56:01 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

the irritation going right bettor becomes all those losing streaks trying to make your point. Losing streaks are likely to be longer, more demoralizing losing streaks than playing the Don't. They are to me anyway, I seem to be able to tune out the fact that darkside you get paid less than even money.

So you can easily change one set of frustrations for another ... which is not to say either side can't be exhilarating when things go right!


ahh.. longer losing streaks.
For the rightSide you must hope that specific number rolls again. whereas the darkSide all you need the is the most numberous #, the 7.

in the long run, based on 7craps calcs, it's the same. but in the shortrun, i can see how it can be demoralizing when you walk out of the casino losing your whole bankroll multiple times w/o a winning session.

i can see enjoying myself more at small wins at Darkside and w/less chances of losing bankroll vs huge sessions (4x bankroll) but more consistantly walk out w/o my bankroll.

For me, i dont think the feeling of Huge sessions wins will make up for the greater frequency of walking out broke.
it's all about the enjoyment/entertainment value i guess.


Quote: ahiromu

My biggest issue with the dark side is if you hit a serious bad round of variance (4-5 points in a row) it's a really difficult and long journey to get back to even.

With the light side, you can lose four points in a row then get back to even after three wins.

This is a sample size of one kind of situation, you need to remember the big picture and the way you like to play. We all have bad sessions and bad nights, just remember what happened when you win a couple thousand the next.



rightSide: 2 wins makes up for 3 losses
Dark: 4wins needed to make up for 3 losses
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
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October 6th, 2012 at 9:17:01 AM permalink
I have never been able to play the dark side for more than a few rolls. Typically happens on tables where no one has been able to make a point, or more than one point, for a while.
I do think the dark side probably has the best chance of coming out ahead each session. Especially if one was to play, EGADS, a progressive bet size on the DP line. I just don't have the discipline to sit there and wait for the 7, with no other real action in play.

The one problem with the dark side, is when the table does have a 3 or 4 point roll, everyone is whooping it up, except for the DP players, who just took a beating. It puts you out of synch socially with the majority of the other players.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
100xOdds
100xOdds
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October 6th, 2012 at 11:14:01 AM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

I have never been able to play the dark side for more than a few rolls. Typically happens on tables where no one has been able to make a point, or more than one point, for a while.
I do think the dark side probably has the best chance of coming out ahead each session. Especially if one was to play, EGADS, a progressive bet size on the DP line. I just don't have the discipline to sit there and wait for the 7, with no other real action in play.

The one problem with the dark side, is when the table does have a 3 or 4 point roll, everyone is whooping it up, except for the DP players, who just took a beating. It puts you out of synch socially with the majority of the other players.



more info on egads betting system pls
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
sodawater
sodawater
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October 6th, 2012 at 2:43:11 PM permalink
deleted
Last edited by: sodawater on Oct 1, 2018
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
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October 6th, 2012 at 5:33:21 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

When I have played from the don't I've also use continual DC bets to get more money in play... Best feeling in the world when you have 4 or 5 points with max odds and the 7 hits and you just stack and stack and stack winnings.



I will go with $25 DP , and then put 2 $25 DC bets out, rarely with odds. But my timing is never that good. I always seem to lose a DC to the 7 out roll.

Part of my problem with the dark side is I am all over the map with my bets. If I would stick to a certain bet pattern, like I mostly do from the Right side, I would probably do better from the Dark. My heart is just not into the Dark side, I guess.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!

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