Threw 9 hardways in ten rolls
Ahign is obviously ignorant about probabilities !
Quote: buzzpaff" Maybe someone else can answer these questions for you. "
Ahign is obviously ignorant about probabilities !
I was being facetious.
My opinion, Only you see it that way.Quote: AhighThis all sounds very argumentative.
I think you could research and figure this out on your own if you really wanted to know. But it really seems like you're trying to start an argument here.
Maybe someone else can answer these questions for you.
Alan asked some easy questions that only you can answer.
Now you are insulted again?? What really is your problem here?
You push your site and forum and your videos here, you want me to list every post that has this for you?,
and you get paid for people to click on them. I want that action!
What IS your angle?
I know it can not be all math since you have great comedy in your math interpretations for craps house edge calculations.
Again, only my opinion, DVD material.
Maybe you want more power here.
Mission146 became an admin.
Remember his first thread and simulations and math or lack of it?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/9787-cancellation-blackjack/#post146489
I do. He throws around numbers and equations like rain falling from the sky.
Who knows how many errors exist in his work.
an example to show I am just not full of it.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/11043-12-roll-fire-bet/#post174328
Hey, we ALL make mistakes.
But, He impressed someone.
Who do you really want to impress?
Quote: guido111My opinion, Only you see it that way.
Alan asked some easy questions that only you can answer.
Now you are insulted again?? What really is your problem here?
You push your site and forum and your videos here, you want me to list every post that has this for you?,
and you get paid for people to click on them. I want that action!
What IS your angle?
I know it can not be all math since you have great comedy in your math interpretations for craps house edge calculations.
Again, only my opinion, DVD material.
Maybe you want more power here.
Mission146 became an admin.
Remember his first thread and simulations and math or lack of it?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/9787-cancellation-blackjack/#post146489
I do. He throws around numbers and equations like rain falling from the sky.
Who knows how many errors exist in his work.
But, He impressed someone.
Who do you really want to impress?
Alright, then. Let me go back and answer all these questions then. I will do my best to satisfy you guys.
Man, just be your honest self.Quote: AhighAlright, then. Let me go back and answer all these questions then. I will do my best to satisfy you guys.
Someone asks you a question, either say you will not answer it or answer it.
This is a public forum.
You seem to me to have a great fear of something.
Maybe you want to talk about that.
Quote: AlanMendelsonWell Ahigh, now that we know you like to do fun things, and you play at Silverton all the time, but you're not a gambler... what are you?
You have your own table, you invested in all sorts of computer and video equipment, and you have a YouTube account which is enabled to accept advertisements to generate you income with each click/view of the videos, and you have several videos.
Are you trying to establish a school? Are you part of a school? Or is this all part of having fun?
What am I?
http://www.linkedin.com/in/ahigh
I am a game developer.
Am I trying to establish a school?
NO
Am I part of a school?
No.
Is this all part of having fun?
Yes. This is my hobby outside of work. I do this for fun.
Don't lump me in with anybody, alright.
I'm "Ahigh" alright. You want to know who I am? I'm Ahigh. What's up?
And promoting my website? I mean come on. My website is so freaking tiny. Do I promote it? Sure. Do I make money on my website? Absolutely not! My website is a group of buddies. But you know what, my promoting my website is just about making some friends. Just get over it. I get tired of people accusing me of making money off posting on other forums and stuff. It just gets old, alright?
Does that help explain why I get touchy about that? Am I being unreasonable? What's the problem doing this for fun and having a friend or two that I socialize with?
Why is that so hard to understand for everybody?
Quote: guido111Man, just be your honest self.
Someone asks you a question, either say you will not answer it or answer it.
This is a public forum.
You seem to me to have a great fear of something.
Maybe you want to talk about that.
Quote: guido111
Maybe you want more power here.
Mission146 became an admin.
Remember his first thread and simulations and math or lack of it?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/9787-cancellation-blackjack/#post146489
I seriously doubt if that post had anything to do with me becoming an Admin! I also doubt if The Wiz is/was even remotely impressed with my Modified Labouchere as he correctly has always stated, "All betting systems are equally worthless," a statement with which I agree.
Quote:I do. He throws around numbers and equations like rain falling from the sky.
Who knows how many errors exist in his work.
an example to show I am just not full of it.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/11043-12-roll-fire-bet/#post174328
Hey, we ALL make mistakes.
I agree with you completely. I'm not afraid to admit if I make a mathematical mistake, nor am I afraid of making a mathematical mistake. My gambling Math abilities have increased dramatically in the last few months, and the vast majority of people on this website are still VERY significantly better than I am. I am simply seeking to improve, and appreciate it when people correct mistakes that I make. I can promise you that when an equation that I write is demonstrated to be erroneous, I will never argue that my equation is correct.
Quote:But, He impressed someone.
Again, I seriously doubt if The Wiz is even remotely impressed by my (lack of) mathematical talents.
In reviewing the first, it also seems that you may have been highly suspicious of my motives for posting, perhaps thinking that I was here to sell a betting system. You can see now that is clearly not the case. I'm here because I have a great time. I enjoy all of the people here, I enjoy gambling, math and I got to become an Administrator and have fun managing my football Picks game.
Quote: sodawaterHaha... I do think it's kind of funny that two active posters have green names, and one is the wizard and the other's first post was about a betting system he devised for a negative-EV game. But mission seems to be doing a good job as admin, so it's all good.
Thank you for the compliment, SodaWater!
I think the most amusing part of the whole thing was my thinking that the system might actually work! I ended up in Gambling System Inventors Anonymous support group, I had three Psychologist appointments a week for two months, I was prescribed Risperdal for my delusions of a viable betting system...and after all of this treatment I have realized that two negatives can only multiply/divide into a positive number, but negatives can never be added into a positive number.
I think I am going to be OK.
(All the psycho stuff was a joke, of course!)
Quote: AlanMendelsonYou remind me of Rob Singer. When Rob Singer's video poker system was challenged, he said he would play his system to show it worked, but only if his critics were willing to put up a substantial amount of money.
I said to Rob -- why is the money necessary? If your system works, just get out there and show them that it works. If it works, you'll win plenty of money from the casino, why do you need their "side bet action"? I was ready to show up with my cameraman and to put it on my TV show.
So, I will ask you the same thing. Do you need the side bet action to prove your system/skill works?
If you are willing to step up to a casino craps table at the casino of your choice, I will be there with my cameraman and if you can do what you say (throwing hardways on demand a high percentage of the time) I will record the video, and put it on my TV show.
I'm sure the casino would love the free publicity. Your call.
And in the interest of answering all these questions that seem to insult me at the same time they are asked...
"Do you need the side bet action to prove your system/skill works?"
A) I never said I had any system
B) Given that I never said I had a system, I never said my system "works."
C) I am not promoting any "system"
D) How in the HELL did you come up with comparing me to whoever this "wonderful person" is?
Look, let me sum it up, and this goes WAAAAY back.
I'm saying this: if I can roll a lot of hardways more than it would seem reasonable to be able to do by pure chance, would that make it plausible that the dice can be controlled?
That is what I am proposing.
It is absolutely _not_ a system. It is something that I am curious about, and I wanted to interact with guys on this forum about that point going back almost two years now.
I am _not_ selling ANYTHING for a PROFIT. Alright? Can we stop it with the "what are you selling" line of questions, please? That's my question to you, can you STOP ASKING ME IF I AM SELLING SOMETHING TO MAKE A PROFIT FROM PEOPLE ON THIS WEBSITE? CAN YOU QUIT SUGGESTING THAT I AM THE SAME AS THESE OTHER PEOPLE THAT YOU HAVE SUCH DISDAIN FOR?
And PLEASE answer my question. PUHLEASE.
It's freaking insulting, bro. It's like "hey are you begging for quarters on the street corner?"
Serious.
I think it's hilarious too guys that think they can sell snake oil to degenerate gamblers for a living. I don't know ANYBODY that makes more money doing that than somebody who writes computer software for a living.
I am a computer programmer with over 25 years of experience.
Quote: sodawaterBased on the way you throw the dice, no, it's not plausible. I already answered this pages ago. If it were demonstrated that you can throw more than the expected hardways with the same throw that you use on your video, the plausible explanation is cheating, video editing, luck, cherrypicking, or delusion. It's not plausible that you can control dice by bouncing them like you bounce them.
Thank you for your response, Sodawater. You need to qualify that it's not plausible to you, though. It's not an authoritative answer you're giving, it's your opinion you're giving.
I highly doubt that you are the authority to deny the possibility that the throws I put on video are not "good enough" to demonstrate plausible bias towards hardways.
But I do appreciate your response very much. The guys on the DI sites also agree with you though. They are saying my throws look like they need improvement too.
Quote: sodawaterWhat is YOUR theory on how you are achieving a better rate of hardways given that you are in fact achieving it?
This is in his very first post at WoV
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/big-wins/3665-another-big-craps-win/#post42388
..."I have been playing craps now for about 8 months (since I moved to Vegas in April)
and I am well known at the Silverton.
If anybody from the forum here wants to meet up and
talk and/or practice dice control,
send me a message as I'd be interested to play and have a good time."
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/big-wins/3665-another-big-craps-win/2/#post42457
he rolls more pairs (6/36) than most everyone else and has his own method of doing so.
" I hit 5 hard sixes, 4 hard 8's, 3 hard 4's, and 3 hard 10's. I also hit box cars three times, aces twice (none on comeout however). I also rolled 3 easy sixes, 2 easy 8's, 3 5's and 3 9's. No easy 4's or easy 10's. I hit every pair there was and more than half of my rolls were pairs, and more than 1/3 of my rolls were hard ways. I made an easy 8 point, and maybe one other point, so you had to be betting the come or hard ways to really do well from my roll. I was betting neither, but I did win a 5 dollar pass line on an easy 8 with 5 dollar odds, and one other point.
This is all from memory, there were plenty of witnesses.
I did all of this on my first roll and in a very deliberate and verbal way.
If anyone doubts what happened, I invite you to go and ask. Several of the dealers witnessed it and I made it very vocalized that I was trying to hit hard ways and also that I was not betting the hard ways myself. Lots of people made money, but I didn't make much (80 profit never going down more than $8 into my bankroll)."
My opinion,
He is a DI and is in the community of DIs.
Not all DIs like each other.
Frank used to believe that the best DI method was to just kiss the back wall and better yet to just have the dice stop by lightly touching the wall.
Many others do also.
The casinos say stop the short rolls and hit the back wall, so Frank now teaches to hit the back wall and have both dice come back.
This is way more difficult to do.
Ahigh has a better method, to be discovered, since he blows away pairs at statically higher than the expected 1/6 probability.
Most here want some data as proof, not selective memory.
I think he wants to be different from all the other DIs, because from his memory, he IS.
Hey, that is all that matters to him... well he wants to also be believed desperately for some unknown reason other-wise we are all just picking on him, insulting him and really pissing off all the Craps Gods too.
added: when one makes a claim, burden of proof has shifted to the one that made the claim
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/big-wins/3665-another-big-craps-win/2/#post42425
"No I don't really claim anything in particular with regards to being able to control the dice.
I have played long enough to see very unusual things happen that are quite remarkable, however, that's mostly the result of just playing a lot.
But what I really wanted to point out is that it's not complicated to know if you are having an effect on the dice or not if you set specific goals and try to achieve them.
I do generally do better when I take the time to set the dice at hitting pairs"...
I don't get many people saying things about me after having spent the time to put it together where I am coming from.
I really appreciate the time you spent pulling up those points.
Quote: guido111Not all DIs like each other.
After much searching which I started maybe a month ago, I finally have found the expression for this, odium figulinum, translated 'potter's hatred' or 'trade jealousy'.
Basically the phenomenon can be called the enmity of people of the same profession for each other, which takes too many words [g].
I can easily believe DIs would suffer from this.
The DI guys are more suspicious than anybody.
Anyway, the original files from my camcorder are available to anyone for forensic analysis. I believe it should be possible to verify the authenticity of the original footage, although I have no idea how that sort of thing works. A little searching reveals that this kind of thing does have some precedence as often video evidence from digital camcorders is something that prosecutors want to verify was not faked before sending someone to prison for a while.
I posted this on the DI forum's website as well, but I'm making this available to anyone who wants to verify authenticity. This shows the cksum of the original files from the camcorder and they have not been modified since recording. The cksums further verify that that they will not be modified prior to any forensic analysis.
If anybody wants these files, let me know and I will figure out how to get them sent over. I might have space on my website to upload the originals. These were recorded at a high bitrate to get 1080p60 and the audio is in 5.1 surround mode. The format is AVCHD format with an MTS extension.
I am totally in favor of having these analyzed by experts. I am also open to any and all verification of my claims as my character and reputation is at stake and this is all out in the open I am not hiding anything!
I would also like to point out that I would be risking a lot to lie about something like this as it would reflect very poorly not just on me, but my employer.
I do not take these sort of accusations lightly.
D:\XR550V\interesting_rolls\9-18-2012>ls -l
total 14105276
-rw-rw-rw- 1 Ahigh 0 2125430784 2012-09-18 20:31 00921.MTS
-rw-rw-rw- 1 Ahigh 0 2125725696 2012-09-18 20:44 00922.MTS
-rw-rw-rw- 1 Ahigh 0 2125529088 2012-09-18 20:57 00923.MTS
-rw-rw-rw- 1 Ahigh 0 2125332480 2012-09-18 21:09 00924.MTS
-rw-rw-rw- 1 Ahigh 0 2125430784 2012-09-18 21:22 00925.MTS
-rw-rw-rw- 1 Ahigh 0 1132848 2012-09-18 23:09 00925.MTS.sfk0
-rw-rw-rw- 1 Ahigh 0 3398416 2012-09-18 23:09 00925.MTS.sfk1
-rw-rw-rw- 1 Ahigh 0 801275904 2012-09-18 21:26 00926.MTS
-rw-rw-rw- 1 Ahigh 0 427144 2012-09-18 23:20 00926.MTS.sfk0
-rw-rw-rw- 1 Ahigh 0 1281304 2012-09-18 23:20 00926.MTS.sfk1
-rw-rw-rw- 1 Ahigh 0 78214005 2012-09-21 00:42 edited_hardways.wmv
-rw-rw-rw- 1 Ahigh 0 1925476194 2012-09-19 00:21 pairs_pairs_pairs.mp4
-rw-rw-rw- 1 Ahigh 0 16328 2012-09-19 01:30 pairs_pairs_pairs.vf
-rw-rw-rw- 1 Ahigh 0 1004595285 2012-09-19 01:13 pairs_pairs_pairs.wmv
-rw-rw-rw- 1 Ahigh 0 522845 2012-04-27 09:59 tshirt_black_border.png
D:\XR550V\interesting_rolls\9-18-2012>cksum *.mts
3177928150 2125430784 00921.MTS
2476039518 2125725696 00922.MTS
2499408873 2125529088 00923.MTS
2692295362 2125332480 00924.MTS
1985295497 2125430784 00925.MTS
3405957529 801275904 00926.MTS
D:\XR550V\interesting_rolls\9-18-2012>
Here's the quote from Americraps (re-posted without permission - hope that's okay but feel free to remove if this is against some rule I don't know about):
Quote:
I'm going to call Bullshit here. Bullshit. It's very easy to fake the viewer into thinking those were consecutive rolls, the camera never moves and the bad throws could be edited out. How many throws did it actually take to throw that many hardways? WHo cares. Overdub some continuous audio over your edited video, and it all comes together in a believable piece. I'm not sure why anyone would go to the trouble of doing this, but anyone with a video camera and computer could do it. The odds say this is a one in x million chance of happening, and I'm not buying that the camera just happened to be on during the miracle run. Once again- Bullshit, but nice try.
Quote: WongBoI know that SOOPOO loves to challenge other gamblers to prove their systems in roulette,
Not sure if he does the same for "skilled" dice throwers.
He will be in Vegas next month, maybe he would like to challenge you.
Thank you, Wong! Of course I'm challenging Mr. Hightower! If I am reading correctly (I admit i skimmed many of his posts), he claims to consistently be able to roll hardways. Soooooo..... here is my challenge...... I'm betting he rolls 40 7's before 40 hardways (2-2, 3-3, 4-4, 5-5). I'll be in Vegas Oct 17-21. You pick a venue. You pick a dollar amount to bet. I know 'variance' can do me in, but I'm willing to take that chance! You interested?
If his throws, with their wild bounces and with the dice going in different directions, and with multiple rotations, is actually controlled and deliberate and is exactly what he set out to do when the dice were released from his finger tips (did we see his grip or set?) then he is the master of all master dice controllers and influencers.
Anyone who has ever studied the theory of dice control and dice influencing -- and Sharpshooter's book is the resource for this theory -- knows that the basic idea is to limit the rotation of the dice to a minimal number of on-axis turns, with a light roll and bounce off the center of the back wall.
If Ahigh has a new type of "controlled throw" which mimics a wild, random throw, and therefore can fly under the radar of the casinos -- then he is a genius and we should all follow him to whatever casino he is throwing at because he'll never be detected as a dice influencer.
All I can say is this, Ahigh, if those throws are controlled and deliberate -- my hat is off to you and you could be my next half hour TV special. I already have the title picked out: "Ahigh way of beating the casinos." And in the TV listings, I will have this: "how this dice mechanic flew under the radar and fooled every suit in the place."
If you can prove to us that what you are doing is exactly what you intended, from set to grip to release to bounce to result -- you sir -- will rewrite casino history. And instead of making 43-cents from Google ads on your YouTube videos you'll have the key to riches with a monthly fee for access to your web site and insider secrets.
I just hope it's true and I can be the first one to put you on TV.
40 / .1666666 = 240, which is to say that one should roll 40 Sevens in 240 rolls.
32 / .111111 = 288, which is to say that one should roll 32 Hardways in 288 rolls.
40 / .111111 = 360 which is to say that one should roll 40 Hardways in 360 rolls.
I understand your position, SOOPOO, and any mutually agreed upon bet is a fair bet, by default, but he'd be crazy to take Even Money on your Proposition!
Thanks for all the support guys. I want to reiterate that I generally don't bet on hardways because of the high house edge.
But I have been focusing on rolling hardways as a measure of my ability to control the dice.
The challenge is not something that anyone should feel that I will easily win. I absolutely prefer to take a fair bet for more pairs than red.
And even if the pay was appropriately more, I don't want to bet I can roll more hardways than sevens.
Pairs is just fine.
Quote: Mission146Rolling a Seven is 1.5x more likely than rolling a Hardway. Mr. Hightower has stated that he can roll an inordinate amount of hardways, but not that he can roll Hardways with the frequency of Sevens! If you lay 5:4, or alternatively, make it 32 Hardways prior to rolling 40 Sevens, you'd still have the mathematical advantage by a not insignificant margin.
40 / .1666666 = 240, which is to say that one should roll 40 Sevens in 240 rolls.
32 / .111111 = 288, which is to say that one should roll 32 Hardways in 288 rolls.
40 / .111111 = 360 which is to say that one should roll 40 Hardways in 360 rolls.
I understand your position, SOOPOO, and any mutually agreed upon bet is a fair bet, by default, but he'd be crazy to take Even Money on your Proposition!
As I said, I skimmed some of AHigh's posts, and it seemed to me that he would claim to be BETTER than what I am asking him to do. We'll leave it to AHigh to see if he accepts.
Quote: Mission146Rolling a Seven is 1.5x more likely than rolling a Hardway. Mr. Hightower has stated that he can roll an inordinate amount of hardways, but not that he can roll Hardways with the frequency of Sevens! If you lay 5:4, or alternatively, make it 32 Hardways prior to rolling 40 Sevens, you'd still have the mathematical advantage by a not insignificant margin.
40 / .1666666 = 240, which is to say that one should roll 40 Sevens in 240 rolls.
32 / .111111 = 288, which is to say that one should roll 32 Hardways in 288 rolls.
40 / .111111 = 360 which is to say that one should roll 40 Hardways in 360 rolls.
I understand your position, SOOPOO, and any mutually agreed upon bet is a fair bet, by default, but he'd be crazy to take Even Money on your Proposition!
Ahigh has an advocate!
I think SOOPOO is entitled to make a proposition that is favorable, and it is up to the other side to counter with what he thinks will be a good bet. No reason, though, for it to be a fair bet since it is an answer to the claim that Ahigh does better than random.
What is the expression? Put up or Shut up?
Quote: AhighI'm okay with just going for pairs, and I think that's what he was implying.
Thanks for all the support guys. I want to reiterate that I generally don't bet on hardways because of the high house edge.
But I have been focusing on rolling hardways as a measure of my ability to control the dice.
The challenge is not something that anyone should feel that I will easily win. I absolutely prefer to take a fair bet for more pairs than red.
And even if the pay was appropriately more, I don't want to bet I can roll more hardways than sevens.
Pairs is just fine.
PAIRS!!!????
#$^*(^$$#&( Pairs?
You're equally likely to roll a pair as you are a Seven, so that's just a coin toss. Any gambling man accepts a coin toss at Even Money, especially if he gets to flip! You would only have to exert actual control over one toss (and then have everything else go as it probabilistically should) to be at an advantage with that one.
Quote: AlanMendelsonAhigh, just ignore all the people who said your video was edited and is fake. Just put on another demonstration that we are all invited to watch. Better yet, just let me know what casino to meet you at with my cameraman. I'll make the casino an offer for free publicity that they can't refuse and I'll record your throws. Heck, I might even bring two cameramen and I might pick up the third camera so that we can see your set and grip, your throw from the opposite end of the table, and one camera following the dice as they hit your landing zone. (You do have a landing zone?)
That sounds awesome. I love the whole idea. The Silverton is absolutely the casino I pick. I would recommend you start by calling and asking for Wayne in the pit and pitch him the idea. If you convince Wayne, that's probably all you'd have to convince. If you don't convince Wayne, somebody will have to convince Wayne for you ultimately anyway. If the Silverton is unwilling to do the event, I will need some time to locate the next bet place. But let's try to make that work first. If it's something that will benefit the casino there and especially if it leads to tips for the dealers, I really want it to be at the Silverton.
Quote: AlanMendelsonAhigh, just so I am clear: when I show up with my cameraman, what "performance" am I expecting to see? (I want to make sure it justifies what I have to pay the camera guys.)
I like AHigh, very much, I think he's a really good dude. He's also very intelligent. But, I hope to God his answer to this question is not that he will roll as many Pairs as he does Sevens.
Quote: DeMangoTo what purpose does this all serve? So we can all end up shooting dice from a dixie cup?? There may be great intelligence on this board, a lot of intelligent fools.
That's what I got from Rappin' Captain. Your question implies you believe in being able to influence the dice.
I think many people are confused and thinking I'm claiming that DI exists because I'm so amazing.
That's not the case. The truth is, and nobody can deny this:
MANY PEOPLE BELIEVE THAT YOU CAN INFLUENCE THE DICE.
Not just a few. MANY.
I believe that it is possible, but I don't know if it can be done or not. I have been trying to roll more hardways than chance would allow in order to help form an opinion.
But how we got from that to ridiculously high edge sucker bets and TV shows that attempt to make me look ridiculous is sort of something that fits into the mold of this website.
The rules say you can't call somebody a name, so everyone just comes up with creative ways of making someone out to look bad.
I think I'm done for a while with this whole thing.
I was excited for a moment that others were curious.
But I don't think it's curiosity. I think it's something much less altruistic and more selfish that is at play.
I don't know. Deceptive, I guess is the word.
I'm just going to random roll from now on.
Happy? The universe is whole again.
Screw it. What a waste of time the last couple of years. I am done. You convinced me.
Thanks for freeing my time to do other more pleasant things.
I'm done.
Quote: Mission146I like AHigh, very much, I think he's a really good dude. He's also very intelligent. But, I hope to God his answer to this question is not that he will roll as many Pairs as he does Sevens.
Really? Yeah, if there were no edge because everything is random, that would be fair.
But you guys have made me very unhappy the last few days putting me through all this stuff.
I mean, I am really really really really unhappy.
Seriously.
I hope that was the goal, because THAT is what you got. Alright?
Great!
Quote: AhighI mean _REALLY_ unhappy.
I hope that was the goal, because THAT is what you got. Alright?
Great!
I don't know what to say. This would be the goal of some, sure. Me myself, I was getting in to this thread and was hoping you would be willing to bet. You even had an advocate to make sure you had a good bet vis a vis your claim.
What to compare this to? Say you compete at long jumps. Somebody says he is better than most everybody at long jumps. What do you do, of course you want him to prove it.
At Craps, I think you want him to "put up or shut up".
At this sort of thing, making someone welcome here, or quietly accepting claims, ain't what it is about.
Make the bet. Come up with a proposition and bet it. The person who takes the bet can be advised he is trying to beat someone at his own game. That guy is supposed to be someone you should be wary of, take it from Damon Runyon:
Quote: Guys n' DollsOne of these days in your travels, a guy is going to come up to you and show you a nice brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken, and this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the Jack of Spades jump out of the deck and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not bet this man, for as sure as you are standing there, you are going to end up with an earful of cider.
You, Mr. Hightower, are the guy saying the Jack of Spades is going to spit cider. Come up with a proposition, sir.
We've seen it all and heard it all.
And so far NO ONE has proven with any consistency that they can influence, control, or otherwise do anything but roll the dice and get random results. Oh, no one except for "the Captain" who no one has met except for those who share the secret handshake.
Look, I've been thrown out of three casinos because the pit critters thought I was a dice controller: MGM, NYNY and Bellagio all told me to "leave," and the truth is, I only went through the motions of what a DI does and just got lucky on a few rolls. But that was enough for them to come down hard on me.
I have seen and played with two shooters who certainly have a talent for "controlled throws" but there wasn't enough of a sample (i.e. enough sessions) to prove that they weren't just lucky as well.
Theoretically, yes, dice control is possible. And as I've often said there is only one Tiger Woods, one Sandy Koufax, one Dan Marino who can do magical things with a ball and their skill. Theoretically, someone can do it with dice too. It's just that we haven't seen it.
Even the guys who have been featured in the books and magazines and on the web and on TV are not consistent. And that's why we are all so skeptical. Because if someone really had the skill of controlling dice, they would be consistent at it.
Tiger Woods can consistently hit long drives. Sandy Koufax could consistenty throw curves. Dan Marino could consistently throw long passes that hit Jimmy Cefalo. Not one of the so called DI/DC experts has ever demonstrated any kind of consistency.
Then along comes you with a claim of throwing 9 hardways in ten rolls. Well, that's about the biggest claim of consistency anyone has heard. And when we look at your video there is NO consistency in how you roll the dice. So we are back to being skeptical. If you had a consistent delivery of the dice, then maybe a claim of consistent results would make sense.
If you want to prove that you can do what you can do, then you'll just have to do it.
Quote: AhighReally? Yeah, if there were no edge because everything is random, that would be fair.
Yeah, but he doesn't need a camera crew to record someone rolling as many Sevens as Pairs. I'm not actually going to carry out the bet at a Live casino Craps Table given the $5.00 minimum bets, but if someone wants to give me Even Money at a Craps Table with no other bets that I will roll as many (or more) Pairs than Sevens in 500 rolls, I'll take it! The thing about that is, not only am I not a DI, I don't even roll the dice particularly well. I just scoot them along the surface rolling end over end and bouncing all over the place because I'm too embarassed by throwing one off of the Table to risk doing that again with any frequency! If they want to go the opposite route, and I have to roll as many (or more) Sevens than I do Pairs, I'll take that too!
If you believe that you have influence over the dice, then Even Money that you will roll as many Pairs as Sevens isn't a bet, from your perspective, it should be a hustle! I would have liked to have seen Even Money at 32 Hardways vs. 40 Sevens because Variance gives you a perfectly reasonable chance of pulling it off even if you don't influence the dice, of course, a win would also slightly back up your assertion that you exercise some inflluence over the dice and can hit Hardways.
"I enjoy the attention, but I know from example that if all I wanted was attention, drama is key to garnering more eyeballs.
Ultimately, as I stated before, I want to become the best craps shooter in the world."
Here is what Lyle Stuart wrote in "Winning at Casino Gambling"; "If you want to get rich, get rich in the dark"
It speaks for its self
I guess if you were the only King things would be different.
Set up 36 rolls 36 times
1,296 total dice rolls.
You can also call out when a pair will roll. That can be a separate statistic like predicting sports bet winners.
EV is 216
SD is 13.4
IF we had about 18 million people in the world throw this many times, we would find on average about 18 would have thrown 283 or more pairs
(1 in 1,172,623.5)
This is 5 standard deviations more than expectation. A PRR of 4.580
Play with the math and the numbers and come up with a bet. I can be in Vegas in 4 hours on short notice.
this would be the Craps event of the century.
Not the same as Grandma 154 that Frank and Co. had at one of their get-togethers
This would be no even money bet also.
You can call your own shots.
You have a good guy in Alan M who is a SoCal TV guy. I watched him many times.
He is good.
You win, you are a Craps God.
You lose, for whatever reason, you ate too much candy for example,
you gave many great entertainment.
Looks to me to be a win win for you.
Alan, that is going way back.Quote: AlanMendelsonSandy Koufax could consistenty throw curves.
I saw Sandy pitch many times at Dodger Stadium. His curve made his fastball even better.
But AHigh might have a cutter.
The first DI in known history with one.
Maybe his video skills can not show this but can be shown by someone with better video skills.
I see he just wants to run and hide.
He really needs to talk this out.
He goes into orbit on a photo link showing -1ass and thinks he is being called names.
I just saw Sally's latest post.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/info/rules/3853-discussion-about-the-suspension-list/81/#post182502
This is still such great comedy.
EV 100 and SD 9.1Quote: SOOPOOThis is a particularly frustrating thread! I usually can at least figure out what the charlatan dice influencer is claiming to be able to do! In this case it seems Ahigh has backed off and is now claiming to be able to match what a random thrower could achieve! Ok, it seems like Ahigh claims to be good at throwing 'pairs'.
A random thrower will average 100 pairs in 600 rolls.
That sets you at about a 1.8% chance of losing.
What odds are given? I bet $1 Ahigh is doing the math on this as the morning is still young.
I got a feeling, a feeling deep inside, oh yeah, that Ahigh will come and knock all of our socks off.
He wants to be the best and this is his Johnny Carson moment.
I want to be there. I do not fear betting all the pairs, some places they all pay 30 to 1 on the hop.
That is exactly the short term variance I like to win big or go home trying.
And AlanM there to film it all!
I would then give all the credit to Ahigh for my ending fortune.
The Craps Event of the Century
anyone remember Laura Nyro?
I loved her more than Karen Carpenter
I even verbalize this in the video that everything was normal except we had more hard tens.
I think maybe some people were not paying attention to the entire video since it's about 15 minutes long and I don't get into the statistics until the end.
From a probability distribution of pairs versus sevens, this is not a big deal. I never claimed that it was. But for those who are curious of the data here it is. All this data that was recorded is on film, not just the last leg of the segment uploaded to you tube.
The excerpt at the beginning on the you tube video is "44`22`55`55`22`31`33`44`55`55"
43`51`21`42`41`32`65`61`61`21`63`36`35`14`42`51`36`63`44`34`21`51`24`61`43`41`21`32`33`34
13`54`33`53`62`55`64`15`52`31`31`36`21`62`26`15`31`51`35`25`52`61`41`62`61`53`33`54`53`36
66`54`21`44`32`45`52`43`54`64`64`12`11`55`16`65`26`64`64`21`64`16`63`53`61`13`53`42`23`52
62`43`43`32`66`65`66`21`23`65`43`55`61`21`53`64`65`45`43`32`64`32`56`41`56`64`31`41`66`22
36`66`65`35`21`16`43`53`51`33`61`54`43`52`31`55`23`65`41`56`53`55`66`41`52`53`41`21`11`52
42`21`43`42`52`32`61`11`11`31`62`51`62`44`22`55`55`22`31`33`44`55`55`21`54`41`62`21`65`63
21`23`55`22`41`52`52`21`21`43`42`41`62`11`61`54`22`62`42`53`53`54`31`52
Total rolls: 204
1) 71 17.40% - 16.67 = (+0.74)----------------------------------------------------- 1
2) 70 17.16% - 16.67 = (+0.49)---------------------------------------------------- 2
3) 67 16.42% - 16.67 = (-0.25)-------------------------------------------------- 3
4) 60 14.71% - 16.67 = (-1.96)--------------------------------------------- 4
5) 75 18.38% - 16.67 = (+1.72)-------------------------------------------------------- 5
6) 65 15.93% - 16.67 = (-0.74)------------------------------------------------ 6
11: ---------- 2
21: ------------------ 3
22: ---------- 4
31: ---------- 4
32: ----------- 5
41: ------------ 5
33: ---------- 6
42: -------- 6
51: -------- 6
61: ------------- 7
52: ------------ 7
43: ------------- 7
53: -------------- 8
44: -------- 8
62: ----------- 8
63: --------- 9
54: ---------- 9
55: -------------------- 10
64: --------- 10
65: ----------- 11
66: ------------ 12
2) 5 2.45% - 2.78% = -0.33% (-0.67)-------- 2
3) 18 8.82% - 5.56% = 3.27% (+6.67)--------------------------- 3
4) 15 7.35% - 8.33% = -0.98% (-2.00)----------------------- 4
5) 23 11.27% - 11.11% = 0.16% (+0.33)---------------------------------- 5
6) 21 10.29% - 13.89% = -3.59% (-7.33)------------------------------- 6
7) 38 18.63% - 16.67% = 1.96% (+4.00)-------------------------------------------------------- 7
8) 29 14.22% - 13.89% = 0.33% (+0.67)------------------------------------------- 8
9) 19 9.31% - 11.11% = -1.80% (-3.67)---------------------------- 9
10) 19 9.31% - 8.33% = 0.98% (+2.00)----------------------------10
11) 11 5.39% - 5.56% = -0.16% (-0.33)-----------------11
12) 6 2.94% - 2.78% = 0.16% (+0.33)---------12
sum total/comeout
H2 5/2 ( 2.45% - 2.78% = -0.67)
H4 5/2 ( 2.45% - 2.78% = -0.67)
H6 5/2 ( 2.45% - 2.78% = -0.67)
H8 4/1 ( 1.96% - 2.78% = -1.67)
H10 10/2 ( 4.90% - 2.78% = +4.33)
H12 6/1 ( 2.94% - 2.78% = +0.33)
I think you can infer from this data that the bet you are proposing would not be a good one, and it would essentially be a sucker bet for me.
I don't bet on pairs in general for a reason: the edge.
With you wanting an even bigger edge on an even less likely event, why would I want to take that bet?
I'm not sure what the approach is, but calling me a charlatan isn't all that persuasive.
I think there is a real big misunderstanding about what I am claiming to have done.
I claim to have done what is on video.
I do not claim that I always roll a significantly higher ratio of pairs to sevens.
For this particular recording session, I had 35 pairs in 204 rolls. That's only one more pair than average for that number of rolls.
And I had 38 sevens. So even for the recorded session I would have lost your bet. So no, I don't think that I want that bet.
But thanks. And thanks for grouping me in with the charlatans. Very open minded of you.
Quote: SOOPOOThis is a particularly frustrating thread! I usually can at least figure out what the charlatan dice influencer is claiming to be able to do! In this case it seems Ahigh has backed off and is now claiming to be able to match what a random thrower could achieve! Ok, it seems like Ahigh claims to be good at throwing 'pairs'. A random thrower will average 100 pairs in 600 rolls. Can you, Ahigh, change just TWENTY of the 500 non pairs to pairs? Meaning, get the expected 100 plus 20 more for 120 out of 600? I'll bet you cannot, as stated before, at your casino, at the time of your choosing, for the amount of money you would like to bet, or even just for dinner and drinks? I make a challenge like this to all who claim to be able to 'influnce dice'. I know variance might cause me to lose the bet, but it's a chance I'm willing to take.
No I can't do it. As I said, I am resigning. You guys win. Everything is random the end. I just got really damn lucky and it just happened to be what I was trying to do, and it just happened to occur when I filmed, etc etc etc. But it doesn't prove anything. And I am stupid. And all you guys are smart. And on and on.
