Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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September 19th, 2012 at 1:52:31 AM permalink
http://youtu.be/ISv-n2DmvBQ

I did this a couple hours ago.

This might be the most number of hardways I have packed into ten rolls.

I have _still_ yet to roll four of the same pair back-to-back though.

Last night, I threw hard 8, hard 8, then I hopped the hard 8 for a dollar and committed to parlay if it hit.

I threw a 6-4 losing my hop, then of course another hard 8. But I hit hard 8 three times in four rolls.

Tonight, I had an easy four after the five consecutive hardways, and then four more hardways after that.

I so wish it was 10 hardways in a row. That would have been nicer, but that darn easy four!

I'm not sure but I think that easy four hit the darn puck!
Paigowdan
Paigowdan
Joined: Apr 28, 2010
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September 19th, 2012 at 2:33:39 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

I did this a couple hours ago.

This might be the most number of hardways I have packed into ten rolls.

I have _still_ yet to roll four of the same pair back-to-back though.

Last night, I threw hard 8, hard 8, then I hopped the hard 8 for a dollar and committed to parlay if it hit.

I threw a 6-4 losing my hop, then of course another hard 8. But I hit hard 8 three times in four rolls.

Tonight, I had an easy four after the five consecutive hardways, and then four more hardways after that.

I so wish it was 10 hardways in a row. That would have been nicer, but that darn easy four!


Great hand, good to hear. Where did you play?

I had a great night playing Three Card poker at the orleans, of all things.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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September 19th, 2012 at 7:01:51 AM permalink
The hard eights were at the Silverton. Last night was at home.

But I'm not done until I can do the same pair four in a row. The more in a row I can get the same pair the happier I will be.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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September 19th, 2012 at 7:04:01 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh



I threw a 6-4 losing my hop, then of course another hard 8. But I hit hard 8 three times in four rolls.



Go to jail, go directly to jail, do not pass GO, do not collect $200.
Tolerance is the virtue of believing in nothing
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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September 19th, 2012 at 7:58:07 AM permalink
Yeah, the stick at the time who has never seen me roll hard ways gave me the ol' "you're supposed to bet them BEFORE they roll."

I blame the stick man for not winning my $961 from a buck!

Quote: AZDuffman

Go to jail, go directly to jail, do not pass GO, do not collect $200.

Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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September 19th, 2012 at 9:37:31 AM permalink
I'm glad to see you are back to Craps and posting videos. I've got to say, nine out of ten hard-aways is pretty awesome! Would you like the probability of this occurring?

1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 * 10 = x

0.00000082690858 = x

or

1/0.00000082690858 = 1:1,209,324

Let me know where you are shooting!
Vultures can't be choosers.
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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September 19th, 2012 at 9:58:12 AM permalink
Thank you so much for your comments. I really enjoy the game of craps and I appreciate the warm welcome back.

4/36 is 2/18 or 1/9. You're thinking pairs not hardways. What I did is much harder to accomplish than just pairs.

But think it still happens more often than one in 322 million according to what you have. I'm just not enough of a math expert to know the chances of it occurring again just due to randomness.

I think combinatorial mathematics comes into play to figure it out.

Quote: Mission146

I'm glad to see you are back to Craps and posting videos. I've got to say, nine out of ten hard-aways is pretty awesome! Would you like the probability of this occurring?

1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 * 10 = x

0.00000082690858 = x

or

1/0.00000082690858 = 1:1,209,324

Let me know where you are shooting!

Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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September 19th, 2012 at 10:12:59 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Thank you so much for your comments. I really enjoy the game of craps and I appreciate the warm welcome back.

4/36 is 2/18 or 1/9. You're thinking pairs not hardways. What I did is much harder to accomplish than just pairs.

But think it still happens more often than one in 322 million according to what you have. I'm just not enough of a math expert to know the chances of it occurring again just due to randomness.



You're right, I did do it for all pairs. You can figure it out easily, just use my formula, same principles apply!

You will go 1/9 (nine times, or to the ninth power) * 8/9 (It has to NOT happen once) * 10 (Number of attempts, because order is irrelevant) = x

When you have x, then all you do is go 1/x and the result is your 1:x probability.

I recommend Googling, "Online Scientific Calculator," and the first result is Web 2.0 scientific calculator. It's not the most intricate, but it is EXTREMELY easy to use, and you can type your input here (if you do it the long way) and just copy/paste to that and hit, "Enter."

You're welcome, by the way, glad to have you back!
Vultures can't be choosers.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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September 19th, 2012 at 10:27:18 AM permalink
I'm not sure I want to go down the rest of this road, but it must be noted that the "ten rolls" were counted using the first hardway occurance as a starting point. "Cherrypicking" a sequence of ten rolls is not the same as analyzing your entire session, or even recording the results of ten sequential rolls using a random future starting point.

Of course, the above would not apply if you only rolled the dice a total of 10 times.
When I die, I want everyone who ever worked with me on a group project to lower me into my grave so they can let me down one last time.
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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September 19th, 2012 at 10:36:08 AM permalink
I will leave the math to the math experts, but it would be fantastic if someone could provide me with the details of how to calculate the chances of this happening again.

As far as back-to-back hardways or groups of hardways that is my area of focus right now. So I'm also interested if anyone can name specific challenges.

I am obviously still on my multi-year quest to get a hardway to come four times back to back. That's 1/9 * 1/36 * 1/36 * 1/36, so I can figure that one out.

This is really just stuff that is happening "along to the way" towards that quest. There are plenty of witnesses for my clumping of hardways when I get in the groove. But I have long strings of sevens like the unlucky chumps out there too! You can see evidence of that happening right before this clump of hardways on the graph on my computer.

Quote: Ayecarumba

I'm not sure I want to go down the rest of this road, but it must be noted that the "ten rolls" were counted using the first hardway occurance as a starting point. "Cherrypicking" a sequence of ten rolls is not the same as analyzing your entire session, or even recording the results of ten sequential rolls using a random future starting point.

Of course, the above would not apply if you only rolled the dice a total of 10 times.


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