justin5689
Joined: May 5, 2012
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August 22nd, 2012 at 7:05:59 PM permalink
What are the odds of hitting a fire bet with the first 12 rolls of the dice? Does anybody know of this ever happening or what the record is for quickest fire bet?
Mission146

Joined: May 15, 2012
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August 22nd, 2012 at 8:10:33 PM permalink
I don't know the record.

Ready for the odds, easier than it seems.

1.) Point must be made directly after establishment.

2.) Order of points is irrelevant, so we'll go in numerical order.

24/36 * 3/36 * 21/36 * 4/36 * 17/36 * 5/36 * 12/36 * 5/36 * 7/36 * 4/36 * 3/36 * 3/36 =

0.00000000164041 or 1/0.00000000164041 = 1:609,603,696.64
Vultures can't be choosers.
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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August 22nd, 2012 at 10:00:27 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

2.) Order of points is irrelevant, so we'll go in numerical order.

24/36 * 3/36 * 21/36 * 4/36 * 17/36 * 5/36 * 12/36 * 5/36 * 7/36 * 4/36 * 3/36 * 3/36 =

0.00000000164041 or 1/0.00000000164041 = 1:609,603,696.64

I think the order of points is relevant.
What about this sequence.
24/36 * 5/36 * 19/36 * 5/36 * 14/36 * 4/36 * 10/36 * 4/36 * 6/36 * 3/36 * 3/36 * 3/36
8.73048E-10
1 in 1,145,413,045.13

This sequence is even easier
24/36 * 3/36 * 21/36 * 3/36 * 18/36 * 4/36 * 14/36 * 4/36 * 10/36 * 5/36 * 5/36 * 5/36
4.82474E-09
1 in 207,265,217.69

Looks like we need a matrix for all the possible orders, maybe just combinations *2, then add them all up.
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Mission146

Joined: May 15, 2012
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August 22nd, 2012 at 10:30:25 PM permalink
Therein lies the importance of actually verifying a statement, especially when it is easy to verify, before making it.

I wonder if we took the mean of all combinations, if it would equal my line?
Vultures can't be choosers.
CrapsForever
Joined: Mar 6, 2012
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August 22nd, 2012 at 11:07:47 PM permalink
Quote: justin5689

What are the odds of hitting a fire bet with the first 12 rolls of the dice? Does anybody know of this ever happening or what the record is for quickest fire bet?

I was on a Craps table where a gentleman hit the 5 Point Firebet in 10 rolls in a Casino in the midwest last year.

Best \$2 investment of my life...
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
chefphydeaux
Joined: Feb 22, 2012
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August 22nd, 2012 at 11:51:31 PM permalink
We have the "Sharp Shooter" bet out here in my area. I got to 6 points in 15 rolls, 50-1 payout I believe. Hit the 7th in 4 more rolls. spent the next 20 minutes banging away at inside numbers, with a point of 4. Never made it. Bitch of the thing was I usually bet 1 for me, 1 for the crew on it but screwed up and made a 5 and 1 bet! Cleaned up on the inside numbers and with 10x odd available did fine on the line. The 500 payout from the shooter bet was gravy.
It was and odd roll. Never threw a craps, one come out YO, and only one 7. Pure numbers, and lotta hard ways. 8 players on the table, I had smallest shooter bet out, and the crew all at at least a buck bet from everyone. Was a big payout for everyone !
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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August 23rd, 2012 at 5:01:07 AM permalink
I got 1 in 507,799,783.34

Start by assuming that you're gonna throw them in a specific sequence. For example: 4, 4, 10, 10, 5, 5, 9, 9, 6, 6, 8, 8.

x = ( 3/36 ) ^ 4 * ( 4/36 ) ^ 4 * ( 5/36 ) ^ 4 = 0.0000000000027351 or 1 in 365,615,844,006.30

Then multiply by the number of ways you can sequence the six numbers: 6! = 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 720.

x * 720 = 0.0000000019692801 or 1 in 507,799,783.34
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁 Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition. 🤗
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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August 23rd, 2012 at 8:38:38 AM permalink
In Excel one can list all 720 possible sequences.

There are 12 terms in each sequence but 7 of them are constants and only 5 are variables.
Every sequence has the constant: (3/36)^2*(4/36)^2*(5/36)^2*(24/36)

This point sequence: 4,5,6,8,9,10 results in the 5 roll variables of
21/36*17/36*12/36*7/36*3/36
then we multiply by the constant
(*(3/36)^2*(4/36)^2*(5/36)^2*(24/36))

The next sequence: 4,5,6,8,10,9 results in the 5 roll variables of
21/36*17/36*12/36*7/36*4/36
(*(3/36)^2*(4/36)^2*(5/36)^2*(24/36))

again, not all sequences are equiprobable

My answer being the sum of 720 possible sequences
1.6983E-06 or better
1 in 588,825.28
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