Threw 9 hardways in ten rolls

http://youtu.be/ISv-n2DmvBQ

I did this a couple hours ago.

This might be the most number of hardways I have packed into ten rolls.

I have _still_ yet to roll four of the same pair back-to-back though.

Last night, I threw hard 8, hard 8, then I hopped the hard 8 for a dollar and committed to parlay if it hit.

I threw a 6-4 losing my hop, then of course another hard 8. But I hit hard 8 three times in four rolls.

Tonight, I had an easy four after the five consecutive hardways, and then four more hardways after that.

I so wish it was 10 hardways in a row. That would have been nicer, but that darn easy four!

I'm not sure but I think that easy four hit the darn puck!

Quote: Ahigh

I did this a couple hours ago.

This might be the most number of hardways I have packed into ten rolls.

I have _still_ yet to roll four of the same pair back-to-back though.

Last night, I threw hard 8, hard 8, then I hopped the hard 8 for a dollar and committed to parlay if it hit.

I threw a 6-4 losing my hop, then of course another hard 8. But I hit hard 8 three times in four rolls.

Tonight, I had an easy four after the five consecutive hardways, and then four more hardways after that.

I so wish it was 10 hardways in a row. That would have been nicer, but that darn easy four!

Great hand, good to hear. Where did you play?

I had a great night playing Three Card poker at the orleans, of all things.

The hard eights were at the Silverton. Last night was at home.

But I'm not done until I can do the same pair four in a row. The more in a row I can get the same pair the happier I will be.

Quote: Ahigh

I threw a 6-4 losing my hop, then of course another hard 8. But I hit hard 8 three times in four rolls.

Go to jail, go directly to jail, do not pass GO, do not collect $200.

Yeah, the stick at the time who has never seen me roll hard ways gave me the ol' "you're supposed to bet them BEFORE they roll."

I blame the stick man for not winning my $961 from a buck!

Quote: AZDuffman

Go to jail, go directly to jail, do not pass GO, do not collect $200.

I'm glad to see you are back to Craps and posting videos. I've got to say, nine out of ten hard-aways is pretty awesome! Would you like the probability of this occurring?

1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 * 10 = x

0.00000082690858 = x

or

1/0.00000082690858 = 1:1,209,324

Let me know where you are shooting!

Thank you so much for your comments. I really enjoy the game of craps and I appreciate the warm welcome back.

4/36 is 2/18 or 1/9. You're thinking pairs not hardways. What I did is much harder to accomplish than just pairs.

But think it still happens more often than one in 322 million according to what you have. I'm just not enough of a math expert to know the chances of it occurring again just due to randomness.

I think combinatorial mathematics comes into play to figure it out.

Quote: Mission146

I'm glad to see you are back to Craps and posting videos. I've got to say, nine out of ten hard-aways is pretty awesome! Would you like the probability of this occurring?

1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 * 10 = x

0.00000082690858 = x

or

1/0.00000082690858 = 1:1,209,324

Let me know where you are shooting!

Quote: Ahigh

Thank you so much for your comments. I really enjoy the game of craps and I appreciate the warm welcome back.

4/36 is 2/18 or 1/9. You're thinking pairs not hardways. What I did is much harder to accomplish than just pairs.

But think it still happens more often than one in 322 million according to what you have. I'm just not enough of a math expert to know the chances of it occurring again just due to randomness.

You're right, I did do it for all pairs. You can figure it out easily, just use my formula, same principles apply!

You will go 1/9 (nine times, or to the ninth power) * 8/9 (It has to NOT happen once) * 10 (Number of attempts, because order is irrelevant) = x

When you have x, then all you do is go 1/x and the result is your 1:x probability.

I recommend Googling, "Online Scientific Calculator," and the first result is Web 2.0 scientific calculator. It's not the most intricate, but it is EXTREMELY easy to use, and you can type your input here (if you do it the long way) and just copy/paste to that and hit, "Enter."

You're welcome, by the way, glad to have you back!

I'm not sure I want to go down the rest of this road, but it must be noted that the "ten rolls" were counted using the first hardway occurance as a starting point. "Cherrypicking" a sequence of ten rolls is not the same as analyzing your entire session, or even recording the results of ten sequential rolls using a random future starting point.

Of course, the above would not apply if you only rolled the dice a total of 10 times.

I will leave the math to the math experts, but it would be fantastic if someone could provide me with the details of how to calculate the chances of this happening again.

As far as back-to-back hardways or groups of hardways that is my area of focus right now. So I'm also interested if anyone can name specific challenges.

I am obviously still on my multi-year quest to get a hardway to come four times back to back. That's 1/9 * 1/36 * 1/36 * 1/36, so I can figure that one out.

This is really just stuff that is happening "along to the way" towards that quest. There are plenty of witnesses for my clumping of hardways when I get in the groove. But I have long strings of sevens like the unlucky chumps out there too! You can see evidence of that happening right before this clump of hardways on the graph on my computer.

Quote: Ayecarumba

I'm not sure I want to go down the rest of this road, but it must be noted that the "ten rolls" were counted using the first hardway occurance as a starting point. "Cherrypicking" a sequence of ten rolls is not the same as analyzing your entire session, or even recording the results of ten sequential rolls using a random future starting point.

Of course, the above would not apply if you only rolled the dice a total of 10 times.

Quote: Ayecarumba

I'm not sure I want to go down the rest of this road, but it must be noted that the "ten rolls" were counted using the first hardway occurance as a starting point. "Cherrypicking" a sequence of ten rolls is not the same as analyzing your entire session, or even recording the results of ten sequential rolls using a random future starting point.

Of course, the above would not apply if you only rolled the dice a total of 10 times.

It doesn't matter, you cherrypick anytime you do a probability calculation of this nature, even if it is theoretical as opposed to actual. Secondly, you can make it 9/11, (Miss before first hit) or 9/12 (Miss before hit, middle Miss, Miss after last hit) instead, it still isn't happening very often.

So one in 344 million? That sounds pretty darn unlikely.

Quote: Mission146

You're right, I did do it for all pairs. You can figure it out easily, just use my formula, same principles apply!

You will go 1/9 (nine times, or to the ninth power) * 8/9 (It has to NOT happen once) * 10 (Number of attempts, because order is irrelevant) = x

When you have x, then all you do is go 1/x and the result is your 1:x probability.

I recommend Googling, "Online Scientific Calculator," and the first result is Web 2.0 scientific calculator. It's not the most intricate, but it is EXTREMELY easy to use, and you can type your input here (if you do it the long way) and just copy/paste to that and hit, "Enter."

You're welcome, by the way, glad to have you back!

Quote: Ahigh

I will leave the math to the math experts, but it would be fantastic if someone could provide me with the details of how to calculate the chances of this happening again.

My friend, I already have! Use my EXACT formula, just replace 1/6 with 1/9 each time and 5/6 with 8/9 for the miss. That's all you have to do!

Quote:

As far as back-to-back hardways or groups of hardways that is my area of focus right now. So I'm also interested if anyone can name specific challenges.

Yes, identify a one-hour time from xx:xx-xx:xx that you will be available, please.

( 8 / ( 9 ^ 10 ) ) * 10
( 8 / ( 3486784401 ) ) * 10
( 80 / 3486784401 ) = 1 / 43584805

Or 1:43,584,805

Is that right?

Quote: Mission146

My friend, I already have! Use my EXACT formula, just replace 1/6 with 1/9 each time and 5/6 with 8/9 for the miss. That's all you have to do!



Yes, identify a one-hour time from xx:xx-xx:xx that you will be available, please.

Here's another video that not as good of quality where I threw 6-2 five times in a row.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3fpx6TGPdQ

That I could figure out as 5/6 for the first non pair. The 1/18 after that or 5 / ( 6 * ( 18 ^ 4) ) = 1 in 125,971

So rolling any non-pair five times in a roll is one in an eighth of a million.

And what I'm trying to do, roll any pair four times in a row is 1 / ( 6 * 36 ^ 3 ) = 1 in 279936.

So I did some less likely in order to try to achieve something more likely.

Yeah, anyway. I still failed. LOL.

Quote: Ahigh

( 8 / ( 9 ^ 10 ) ) * 10
( 8 / ( 3486784401 ) ) * 10
( 80 / 3486784401 ) = 1 / 43584805

Or 1:43,584,805

Is that right?

That's what I got. Not too shabby! LOL

Well, thanks to everyone who voted that I should stick around. I hope to be a worthy contributor and I hope to expand the realm of what people think is possible with respect to the game of craps. This is just the result of my first day or two of not being banned. Hopefully it gets more interesting as we go along with a proper amount of support and encouragement.

As an added bonus, for any additional videos, I promise to wear a shirt. LOL.

Just wanted to add what a former coworker submitted as analysis for how "lucky" this was to accomplish:

Quote:

Given a 1 in 9 of getting a hard way on any given roll, the chance of any 9 randomly selected rolls in a row all being hard ways is 1 in 387 million. (Just 1/9^9). However, thinking of the odds in these terms is not particularly useful. What's more useful is to figure out your odds of hitting 9 in a row given a large sample size of dice rolls. It should be intuitive that your chances of hitting 9 in a row increase the longer you play.

To work out how your chances increase, I believe we can calculate it as follows (note I'm not a probability expert, so I may be doing something wrong, feel free to correct me):

Let x be the probability of getting 9 hard ways in a row (starting on the next turn).
Let y be the probability of NOT getting 9 hard ways in a row (starting on the next turn).

x = (1/9)^9
y = 1 - x

Let z be the probability of NOT getting 9 hard ways in a row over 10,000 rolls (I am just picking a number that might be reasonable to assume for someone who plays a lot of craps over the course of a year or so):

z = y^10000

Now just take 1-z to get the final probability of getting 9 in a row over 10,000 rolls. It turns out to be about 1 in 38743. Significantly better odds, but still pretty unlikely!

So if you roll 10,000 times per year playing craps, you can expect to hit your 9 in a row streak about once in every 38743 years. :) Looks like you got pretty lucky!

<then a few minutes later>

I just realized that the calculation of z should probably be z = y^(10000-8), since it's impossible to get 9 in a row after the 9992nd roll of we're limiting ourselves to 10,000 rolls. Doesn't change the result much though.

The person who submitted this analysis was Sam McGrath. Sam helped start a company I worked with while at Red 5 Studios called Offset that was later bought by Intel.

http://www.joystiq.com/2008/02/25/intel-buys-up-offset-software-project-offset-still-going-stron/

Sam, I think, misunderstood that it wasn't 9 in a row, but I still felt that his analysis would be worthy of inspection from other math guys around here. Sam is a very smart guy.

Sam is also a very good Poker Player, and also wrote a game called "Lane Splitter" for iOS that beat out Doodle Jump and is one of the most popular games on mobile phones.

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Quote: sodawater

Lol so OP got a hold of some tops (misspotted dice)?

Nope. Sorry to correct you, but it's for real with 100% fair dice.

Did you watch the video? If you watch the video in 1080P you can clearly see the detail of the pips.

Click full screen on the video, then click the little setup icon and choose 1080P HD.

If there is anyone who wants to take evidence from my video camera who doubts this really happened, feel free to contact me.

I have absolutely nothing to hide and nothing to gain from making false claims as far as that goes.

But this absolutely really happened. No tops (no misspotted dice), not unbalanced (no loaded dice), no burned corners (removed material), no funny business. I can set the dice used aside if anyone is interested to see them or thinks it's worth further digging, I'm all up and open to anything to try to figure out what could cause this unlikely event to occur.

But I do not find humor in your accusation, tongue in cheek, joke, or otherwise. Not funny or appreciated one bit.

- OP

Well, you may have been using "fair dice" but you had nothing that resembed "fair casino conditions."

There were no chips on the table, no wear spots, no hard lumps, or depressions, no smoke blowing, no noise making, no sticky spots from wine or been stains to contend with.

You also didn't have anything which resembled an attempt at a "controlled throw" and your dice certainly were not exhibiting anything that would indicate they were anything but a random throw.

So... you got lucky... in a practice session.

But nice table. I wish I had one like that.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Well, you may have been using "fair dice" but you had nothing that resembed "fair casino conditions."

There were no chips on the table, no wear spots, no hard lumps, or depressions, no smoke blowing, no noise making, no sticky spots from wine or been stains to contend with.

You also didn't have anything which resembled an attempt at a "controlled throw" and your dice certainly were not exhibiting anything that would indicate they were anything but a random throw.

So... you got lucky... in a practice session.

But nice table. I wish I had one like that.

About fair casino conditions: I play every single day at the Silverton casino. Nine out of ten times, I shoot from the same spot, and NOBODY else is at the table when I shoot. Feel free to verify by calling the casino and asking them who Aaron Hightower is and when he comes in every day. You can ask for Wayne, or anybody in the pit crew at 12:00pm Pacific time. Everyone at the casino knows who I am.

So you are wrong on that point.

My table is EXACTLY like the table at the Silverton. The exact same everything except my logo says Sunset Station and their logo says Silverton.

So you're wrong on that point.

When I am there, the dealers are very polite. Nobody is smoking. No spots on the table or other things you describe.

If I got lucky, it was really lucky. And if you ask around, and even if you look at my posts on this forum from years ago, you will find that I roll hardways, and I am known to roll hardways back to back frequently. More than one player is up five figures each on my rolls for the year (not that I am sure they haven't lost more elsewhere mind you).

I absolutely agree that I have a nice table, and I thank you for the one positive comment that you added. Feel free to verify my corrections, but just like the previous poster, I have to correct you on your suggestions as they are not accurate.

To that notion, I invite anyone and everyone to go into the Silverton Casino and ask around who I am. I don't hide anything. They all know I run GoodShooter.com. They know everything about me and I hide nothing. I am a diamond player, and I get plenty of comps and high roller treatment. In general I am very good friends with the casino, and in general my play does not hurt the bottom line for the casino. I love the game and I'm not about taking. I am about giving.

But if you think that this is luck, you are talking about some very extreme luck! I don't even make claims that it is not luck, as I have no way of knowing. But it seems pretty implausible that I could be that lucky. Is it plausible to you that I could be that lucky?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reductio_ad_absurdum

That's about as close as I could get to proving that it wasn't luck. It's potentially absurd that I could be that lucky.

Would you agree that it wasn't luck if I won six figures in cash and took photos of the cash on my craps table at home before depositing it in the bank?

If that's what it takes, I could make it a point to attempt to both win the money, photograph the money, and intentionally "give" the money back to the casino just to make the point.

I have had enough money in the bank to live on the interest. That was a low point in my life. Let me assure you of that. Just because what I am doing doesn't fit into your world doesn't mean it isn't really happening.

One other point: it's almost as hard to give money back the casino if you only make smart (low edge) bets. To give money back with low edge bets requires as much skill as it does to win it. Even if you increase your bets until you lose (reverse martingale) you have to deal with house limits on the _other_ side. Silverton's limit are $1000 and $2000 max odds.

Of course you can bet the boxcars every roll to give it back .. or hop everything!! But that's just _too_ easy, and I would consider that cheating!!!

Quote: AlanMendelson

You also didn't have anything which resembled an attempt at a "controlled throw" and your dice certainly were not exhibiting anything that would indicate they were anything but a random throw.

I forgot to address this. I have not taken anyone's classes nor am I a student of anyone else's way of playing the game. If you think my rolls look like dog crap, you're not the only one.

I've told several people I'm not interested in advice for how to throw the dice.

One of the things that I did recently was I recorded 300 rolls in August, and they looked beautiful on the histogram. So much so that it really just looked plain contrived.

Well, one of the things I did recently was to make a routine in my software to do a transform from the die set I am using to all other 575 die sets, and re-apply strategies for all the different possible ways that you could arrange the dice to find out what set works best with the throw that was recorded.

For those 300 throws, there was not a better die set that could be found. I honestly thought it was a bug. Now that's just a 1 in 576 chance that I am using the perfect die set for those 300 throws (the strategies were for $5 line and 10x odds for 1 through 6 points covered). That's not 43 million to one. But it caught me off guard to the point that I thought for sure I had bugs until I verified with certainty that the code was working for other roll data and/or other strategies.

But I'm my own guy, and I've been doing this for years now. Generally speaking I am doing my own thing. And I'm starting from scratch on all of it. I do learn things on the internet a little bit, but I don't have nor have I ever had any kind of "coach" telling me how to do things.

And I will say that most of the time I do shoot pretty average. I am not continuously able to just roll anything that I want to roll. It just happens sometimes. So you could in fact be right that it's just luck. It is possible. But more and more these days, luck seems harder and harder to accept as the explanation for what is happening with me. Regardless of how frequent it happens, there are some extremely remarkable things that occur when I am shooting. So you could be right about the luck part. And maybe my rolls are sufficiently "bad" enough to be "totally random" and therefore "obviously just lucky."

You could absolutely have a chance that you're right about that.

But will you also admit that there's a possibility that I am going to be able to prove that I can demonstrate skill at shooting the dice? Or are you denying that I may possibly be able to do that some day. That I simply cannot do that because it is not possible?

Or stated another way, what would it take to convince you that I am demonstrating skill at shooting? How would I go about proving that, even?

Even if I could roll, let's just say, boxcars 100 times in a row given 10,000 rolls for the total attempt, would you say "that looks random, it's just luck!" Or would you say "I have no idea how, but you are really good at rolling boxcars over and over! That is _not_ just luck, you're good!"

If 100 is enough (and I hope that it is!), where is your personal threshold where you would say "that's luck!" Still sticking with I am throwing the dice 10,000 times, and we're only counting back-to-back aces.

If I got boxcars 4 times in a row on 10,000 throws would that demonstrate any skill? (one in 16 million chance to get 4 boxcars in a row).
No? How about 5 times in a row? (1 in 60 million)
No? How about 6 times in a row? (1 in 2 billion)
No? How about 7 times in a row? (1 in 78 billion)
No? How about 8 times in a row? (1 in 2.8 trillion)
No? Then how many, please tell me.

At some point it seems reasonable that a reasonable demonstration of skill is the explanation. But I just want to know what is your personal threshold for that?

The chances of rolling 6-6 100 times in a row in 10,000 attempts -- well, I'll leave that to the math experts on this forum. However, suffice it to say if you ever observe anyone rolling 100 consecutive 6-6s there is a far greater chance that you hallucinated it and youre really in a padded room somewhere than it actually happening. It just can't happen.

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Quote: sodawater

Actually let me add to that. If you ever see someone roll 100 boxcars in a row there is a 100 percent chance the dice have 6 pips on every face or there is a giant electromagnet involved.

I thought it was sufficiently obvious to be a rhetorical question.

The implication of the question is that there is some number where it is reasonable that luck is not sufficient to explain what is happening.

I agree that 100 in a row, if it were possible to do that with fair dice, it would be a robot doing it not a human.

But back to reality, I just want to know .. and everyone can give me their personal answer, what is the number of consecutive boxcars in a 10,000 roll attempt where you'd say that is _not_ luck it's something else.

Even if you suggest that it's not skill, you're rejecting luck as in nobody gets _that_ lucky.

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Quote: sodawater

Well I watched your video and I agree with the other poster -- your throws don't look controlled at all. They just bounce off the wall like any other throw you see on a craps table.

So to answer your question, no results could convince me it is your skill as a dice shooter. There would always be a more likely explanation: cherrypicking, trick photography, video editing, loaded dice, misspotted dice, magnetic dice, luck, delusion....

That wasn't my question. My question wasn't how many rolls to convince you that it was skill.

The question was how many rolls to convince you it wasn't luck.

Quote: sodawater

unrelated: why does a picture of what appears to be a buffalo's hindquarters flash on your macbook screen every time you roll the dice?

It's just a default background I selected. I am using gnuplot, and imagemagick to create the charts and put them together into one image. The software is written in perl, and it runs Xee to show the image. The perl script does a killall xee ; xee $image type thing .. and between the killall and the showing the next image, you get to see the desktop background image.

I do want to thank all you guys for your interest. And definitely know that I'm not pulling tricks. This is interesting stuff to me, and this is the stuff that I like to do.

I'm not selling classes or snake oil or anything else. I just have a genuine interest and passion in this stuff.

Very few people understand why I'm so passionate about this stuff, and it's pretty unusual.

But whatever the reason, please understand I appreciate the feedback. I'm putting everything out on the table, and I'm sure it would be plenty easy to take pop shots at me. But all that I am revealing about myself in this process, please realize that I'm most interested in other people with similar interest to help me on my quest.

I've heard from plenty of people for many years now about the futility aspects of what I'm doing. But most of those people have had to change their perspectives along the way as I demonstrate more and more various things.

My real interest is just in expanding things a little bit and challenging what people believe about the game.

I'm not trying to sell anything. Not even a belief. But I do want to try to discover new things that aren't already known.

So hopefully that's helpful to understand. I'm not looking to start fights. I really want to challenge you guys that think the whole idea of influence is ridiculous to re-examine your beliefs and contemplate what if there is something there, what would that mean and how you could you demonstrate it. What would it take?

Is it money in the casino versus practice session at home. That could still be luck, right?

Is it demonstrating a throw that has obvious control? As in you can see the dice behaving in what is an obviously controlled way?

Do you need to see two independent throws that look that same to consider that influence is the reasonable explanation?

These are the things I am curious about.

Also, if there are other researchers or technical people who want to take my data for analysis, I am 100% open to making everything available to anyone.

I'm working towards getting more gear to do more analysis. Most people think it's crazy, but I'm looking to invest somewhere in the neighborhood of $20,000 into my rig (most of that cost is cameras). But if anybody has slow motion cameras or is in the film industry and just wants to get involved, I am very much interested to get some 1080p240 or faster HFR cameras in here. Especially if anyone has access to a phantom, I would love to try to get some rolls in super HFR.

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Quote: Ahigh

About fair casino conditions: I play every single day at the Silverton casino. Nine out of ten times, I shoot from the same spot, and NOBODY else is at the table when I shoot. Feel free to verify by calling the casino and asking them who Aaron Hightower is and when he comes in every day. You can ask for Wayne, or anybody in the pit crew at 12:00pm Pacific time. Everyone at the casino knows who I am...My table is EXACTLY like the table at the Silverton. The exact same everything except my logo says Sunset Station and their logo says Silverton.

hey, this is a gambling site! If OP can do this, why not put some money on it?

Says he plays all the time at the Silverton.

Fair bet on rolling a hardways is well known. A bet not available normally, but OK between players, would be "roll any hardways before a 7" or "roll any hardways, one roll bet".

1] 4 ways to roll a traditional hardways of 4,6,8, or 10, 6 ways to roll a 7, fair odds are 7:4 Easy ways don't count.

[double check known odds casino hardways 8: one way to roll it, 6 ways to lose on 7s, 4 ways to lose on easy 8s, 10:1 is fair bet? Yes! according to chart, so I should be doing this right]

2] 4 ways to roll one, 32 ways to lose, 8:1 is fair bet.

Others here should confirm these are fair bets.


Possible propositions:

1] Ahigh gets paid 3:2.
2] Ahigh gets paid 7:1

At an empty table, you can be next to each other and Hightower places his bet in the tray next to you when he feels it coming on, and you place your money there if you want the bet. I'm not traveling to make these bets, but if I lived there I would be happy to.

No one else?

Hey that sounds like fun. I would love to get some fair money hardways.

And of course if somebody wins off me, the spoils of posting "in yo face Ahigh" would be worth more than the cash!

LOL.

Here's an edited version of the hardways that cuts the fat out and does some slo-mo at the end.

http://youtu.be/vj_OJBYx81I

And thinking about fair money bets from people on the board, all of a sudden those slow motion videos are really looking random to me all of the sudden. I mean just look at them bouncing randomly and everything when I slow them down like that! Surely you can make money from me!

Ahigh, I don't mean to offend you but the reality is there are no two craps tables or practice rigs or any surfaces used to throw dice that are exactly alike.

Any correlation between what you do at the Silverton and what you also do at home -- and any correlation of results that any dice thrower can have at Casino X and Casino Y, or what they have at Casino X and their home practice rig or table -- is great luck at best.

This is my #1 criticism of those who sell practice rigs or even bother to practice on a "casino like table" at home.

The "like conditions" of a practice rig and of any two craps tables or rigs ends with the first bounce of the dice. If you are going to practice your throws and releases you can do it facing your bed.

Like you I would like to see "dice control" proven. I think it is possible. I think some people have the talent and I have seen two players who had "controlled throws" that gently bounced and rolled to the wall. But there was no appearance of any control whatsoever in what you were doing. In fact, in one of your throws, one die bounced off the table. I looked for the spots where your dice hit the table, where they bounced and where they finally came to rest -- and there was no "repeat" in any of your throws. I would have a hard time trying to convince myself that you had any influence or control over the dice.

By the way, do you also play video poker? Notice any patterns or fifth card flipovers we should be aware of?

I know that SOOPOO loves to challenge other gamblers to prove their systems in roulette,
Not sure if he does the same for "skilled" dice throwers.
He will be in Vegas next month, maybe he would like to challenge you.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Ahigh, I don't mean to offend you but the reality is there are no two craps tables or practice rigs or any surfaces used to throw dice that are exactly alike.

Any correlation between what you do at the Silverton and what you also do at home -- and any correlation of results that any dice thrower can have at Casino X and Casino Y, or what they have at Casino X and their home practice rig or table -- is great luck at best.

This is my #1 criticism of those who sell practice rigs or even bother to practice on a "casino like table" at home.

The "like conditions" of a practice rig and of any two craps tables or rigs ends with the first bounce of the dice. If you are going to practice your throws and releases you can do it facing your bed.

Like you I would like to see "dice control" proven. I think it is possible. I think some people have the talent and I have seen two players who had "controlled throws" that gently bounced and rolled to the wall. But there was no appearance of any control whatsoever in what you were doing. In fact, in one of your throws, one die bounced off the table. I looked for the spots where your dice hit the table, where they bounced and where they finally came to rest -- and there was no "repeat" in any of your throws. I would have a hard time trying to convince myself that you had any influence or control over the dice.

By the way, do you also play video poker? Notice any patterns or fifth card flipovers we should be aware of?

Hey, you've not offended me. You are correct that they are not exactly alike. Mine has more dust on it, the wood is different. Etc. But they are as much alike as two craps tables generally get.

I disagree with your second assertion that any correlation of results that any thrower can have at Casino X and their home is purely luck. Part of the results are where the dice land, as you seem to hone in on. But there are other correlations in the results that are not luck, and this absolutely includes any bias that you can consistently achieve towards a given outcome with your throw. If you're argument is that it can't be done because it hasn't been done, that's not a sufficient argument to hold water. Dice that bounce an infinite number of times are random. I have had dice wedge into the corner of the table and stick on a pair without bouncing at all. If I can accomplish this particular throw ten times in 100 throws, would you continue to hold your position? Is this type of throw a random throw or a skill throw? You understand, right? That sometimes the dice don't even bounce. How many of this type of throw would make your argument invalid? If you're saying this type of throw only happens due to "great luck" then explain how many times a random shake 'em up and shoot 'em gets lucky enough to have this happen to them compared to my throws when I am trying to get this type of result.

My throws I wasn't trying to land them in the same place. My goal wasn't to demonstrate trajectories that proved I could control the initial conditions within a visible tolerance. My goal was to demonstrate that I can perform throws with consistent final outcomes.

I do not agree that controlling initial conditions to all be the same is the singular key to having favorable outcomes. I throw the dice in such a way that whatever the effect is on the cubes, the effect is similar on the two dice that I throw on that throw. So it's relative left-die to right-die conditions that I am concerned about not roll-to-roll conditions.

Compare the easy four to all the other rolls. The easy four hits the puck.

Luck was involved in every single throw. If there was no luck involved, I could in fact roll the same outcome with each and every toss.

I think you understand that I am not suggesting that I didn't get lucky. I _think_.

My argument is that I got LESS lucky than someone who throws the dice by shaking them up randomly and releasing them without any regard for how the dice are thrown.

Even if I demonstrated 0.01% skill and 99.9% luck.

Your argument is that I have 0.00% skill and 100.0% luck.

I don't play video poker. Even in video poker, there is skill in how you select the cards. All the experts can agree on that.

I find it rather interesting that the amount of skill determined to exist in craps is 0.00000000% by people such as yourself. That's pretty hard for me to believe as much as some of the things I am suggesting are for others to believe.

Even including your point about going off the table. You actually have to have some skill to get a valid roll. So skill is required. But the assertion that the skill doesn't make any difference at all is what I have a difficult time believing. Especially with everything that I have seen at the craps table.

I will agree that the amount of influence that most people exert over the dice still isn't enough to consistently win. Statistics prove that out as the house makes money on the game of craps.

But extrapolating that fact to "it isn't possible" is quite a stretch.

Anybody in the pit will tell you there's a reason you have to hit the back wall. I'm surprised you didn't mention the back wall. I'm also surprised you didn't mention how many times my dice touched the diamond part of the alligators. Do you take notice of that at all? And not the flat part above the diamonds, but the diamonds.

And Alan, are you interested in some fair bets with me?

Quote: WongBo

I know that SOOPOO loves to challenge other gamblers to prove their systems in roulette,
Not sure if he does the same for "skilled" dice throwers.
He will be in Vegas next month, maybe he would like to challenge you.

Sounds like fun. Obviously the outcome won't prove anything to anyone, but I love challenges and games!!!

Hi Ahigh,

Please let me know if I have these facts straight;

- You play at the Silverton every day, or at least enough that you are well known to the dealers.
- You feel you throw more hardways than what a normal random distribution would dictate.
- You feel you throw more back to back hardways (same number) than random distribution would dictate.

- You are interested in studying why this happens, but you are not really interested in using this ability to take the casino for all of their money at the craps table?

Based on your previous posts, I believe the four above statements are accurate.

Where I am confused is you also agree with people who say that based on your video, you are not a controlled dice shooter. If you are not controlling the dice, then what is leading to your increased number of hardways? Do you believe it is in the way you set the dice?

Quote: Ahigh

And Alan, are you interested in some fair bets with me?

You remind me of Rob Singer. When Rob Singer's video poker system was challenged, he said he would play his system to show it worked, but only if his critics were willing to put up a substantial amount of money.

I said to Rob -- why is the money necessary? If your system works, just get out there and show them that it works. If it works, you'll win plenty of money from the casino, why do you need their "side bet action"? I was ready to show up with my cameraman and to put it on my TV show.

So, I will ask you the same thing. Do you need the side bet action to prove your system/skill works?

If you are willing to step up to a casino craps table at the casino of your choice, I will be there with my cameraman and if you can do what you say (throwing hardways on demand a high percentage of the time) I will record the video, and put it on my TV show.

I'm sure the casino would love the free publicity. Your call.

Quote: RaleighCraps

Hi Ahigh,

Please let me know if I have these facts straight;

- You play at the Silverton every day, or at least enough that you are well known to the dealers.
- You feel you throw more hardways than what a normal random distribution would dictate.
- You feel you throw more back to back hardways (same number) than random distribution would dictate.
- You are interested in studying why this happens, but you are not really interested in using this ability to take the casino for all of their money at the craps table?

Based on your previous posts, I believe the four above statements are accurate.

Where I am confused is you also agree with people who say that based on your video, you are not a controlled dice shooter. If you are not controlling the dice, then what is leading to your increased number of hardways? Do you believe it is in the way you set the dice?

You understand everything pretty clearly of what I'm saying.

I'll have to think a while to give you a good response though. But you're are at least understanding what I'm saying.

Quote: AlanMendelson

You remind me of Rob Singer. When Rob Singer's video poker system was challenged, he said he would play his system to show it worked, but only if his critics were willing to put up a substantial amount of money.

I said to Rob -- why is the money necessary? If your system works, just get out there and show them that it works. If it works, you'll win plenty of money from the casino, why do you need their "side bet action"? I was ready to show up with my cameraman and to put it on my TV show.

So, I will ask you the same thing. Do you need the side bet action to prove your system/skill works?

If you are willing to step up to a casino craps table at the casino of your choice, I will be there with my cameraman and if you can do what you say (throwing hardways on demand a high percentage of the time) I will record the video, and put it on my TV show.

I'm sure the casino would love the free publicity. Your call.

I like doing fun things. Someone else had the idea to do the bets. It sounded fun, but that's not really my idea.

The TV show thing would be loads of fun, but I'm not ready for that today. If you want to talk about this idea further, I am interested.

But I'm not ready to go on TV right now.

If you want to meet and talk about these things, I am definitely up for that.

deleted

Quote: sodawater

Ahigh -- I will say this about your endeavor:

You have a really nice craps setup at home, and a really nice camera setup. I wish I had both of those.

You're free to use your time and setup any way you like, but since you're posting on a gambling/odds forum, I can tell you you are wasting your time trying to prove to yourself and others that you have some sort of magical ability to influence the dice.

Most experts are already skeptical of the Frank Scoblete school of dice control that used to be advocated by Stanford Wong (since retracted) -- and that at least has a semi-plausible explanation, that minimizing the dice's turning to a single axis and minimizing bounce will influence the numbers rolled.

You're just throwing the dice against the wall and they bounce all over the place! So what is the plausible explanation for rolling more hardways? It's magical thinking at best.

Thanks. I don't have a million dollar bankroll as the result of winning from the game.

I'm not going to defend my throw or my methods. I am presenting results.

But your description of my throws sounds like you are making an argument rather than an observation. Of course you may not be looking at or for the same things that I am.

Quote: Ahigh

I like doing fun things. Someone else had the idea to do the bets. It sounded fun, but that's not really my idea

Meh. If you are not a gambler, just what are you about?

BTW, I wouldnt be looking for a fair bet as per expectations with random dice, should I hop in to your town, but a chance for you to clean up on my proposition bets, which would seek to win instead should you only be producing random throws. "Randies" I believe they are called.

Quote: odiousgambit

Meh. If you are not a gambler, just what are you about?

BTW, I wouldnt be looking for a fair bet as per expectations with random dice, should I hop in to your town, but a chance for you to clean up on my proposition bets, which would seek to win instead should you only be producing random throws. "Randies" I believe they are called.

I love to gamble. Consider the context. I was pointing out to the guy that this was your idea to gamble, not part of my trying to prove anything.

I just wanted to make the point that I'm not trying to prove anything by suggesting that people gamble against me.

But it does sound like fun.

The only reason I gamble is for fun. But I absolutely love to win!!

Well Ahigh, now that we know you like to do fun things, and you play at Silverton all the time, but you're not a gambler... what are you?

You have your own table, you invested in all sorts of computer and video equipment, and you have a YouTube account which is enabled to accept advertisements to generate you income with each click/view of the videos, and you have several videos.

Are you trying to establish a school? Are you part of a school? Or is this all part of having fun?

Quote: AlanMendelson

Well Ahigh, now that we know you like to do fun things, and you play at Silverton all the time, but you're not a gambler... what are you?

You have your own table, you invested in all sorts of computer and video equipment, and you have a YouTube account which is enabled to accept advertisements to generate you income with each click/view of the videos, and you have several videos.

Are you trying to establish a school? Are you part of a school? Or is this all part of having fun?

This all sounds very argumentative.

I think you could research and figure this out on your own if you really wanted to know. But it really seems like you're trying to start an argument here.

Maybe someone else can answer these questions for you.

Since it is misleading people like you, I will turn off ads on my You Tube Channel.

Your comments are absolutely a kill joy. I mean if I am trying to have fun, you and people like you who make comments like this really take the fun out of everything.

Look! I made $0.43. And even that was on a video just showing my GoPro Camera. But rest assured I will turn all that off just so people like you don't think I'm getting rich.