Improving on bold play at craps

Preview page:
http://www.deepdyve.com/lp/informs/improving-on-bold-play-at-craps-9pRQV0f3HX

Anyone have free access to this article?
Or ifyou read the article, what do you think?


edit:
Abstract
We derive heuristically a strategy we believe to be nearly optimal at craps (in the sense of maximizing the probability of reaching a specified goal). We then prove rigorously (with the aid of a computer) that this strategy is superior to bold play on “don't pass,” regardless of the ratio of one's initial fortune to one's goal.

Quote: 100xOdds

Preview page:
http://www.deepdyve.com/lp/informs/improving-on-bold-play-at-craps-9pRQV0f3HX

Anyone have free access to this article?
Or ifyou read the article, what do you think?

Sorry, no access besides the first page mentioning a huge don't pass bet...

I believe I found it available free here:

http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?sid=1e68d346-4089-4210-8b59-3dda9ab85934%40sessionmgr13&vid=2&hid=9

Quote: RonC

I believe I found it available free here:

http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?sid=1e68d346-4089-4210-8b59-3dda9ab85934%40sessionmgr13&vid=2&hid=9

thanks! Your google-fu is better than mine :)


as for the article... ugg..all that math :(

Quote: 100xOdds

thanks! Your google-fu is better than mine :)


as for the article... ugg..all that math :(

That was my impression, too. The first page was readable but then it was way over my head. I'm here to learn from the math guys not to be one!! :)

Quote: 100xOdds

I've been told optimum bet size for Bold Play (if you hit a bet limit) is 4/9 of your bankroll.
Thus 9/4 * 700 = $1575 Bankroll needed

4/9 (a fraction was just an example)
No.
You misunderstand this thread.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/10943-math-says-same-bet-is-better-than-pressing/#post172360

Quote: 100xOdds

Abstract
We derive heuristically a strategy we believe to be nearly optimal at craps (in the sense of maximizing the probability of reaching a specified goal). We then prove rigorously (with the aid of a computer) that this strategy is superior to bold play on “don't pass,” regardless of the ratio of one's initial fortune to one's goal.

That paper and the conclusions based on assumptions already pointed out to be theoretical in this thread
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/10943-math-says-same-bet-is-better-than-pressing/#post172360

"We should emphasize that our analysis assumes infinitly divisible capital and no betting limits."

The math in that paper shows one is to start out with the known max odds to Lay,
then determine a starting bankroll and the proper flat bet size.
The ratio of the starting bankroll to the target goal is very important to the sizes of allowed wagers.

Along the way there becomes odds bet sizes that can not be made exactly because, for example, one can not bet exactly 1/3 of $100 on the odds bet without rounding to an integer. Rounding, in that paper, is NOT allowed.

Sorry, this does not work in actual casino play.

.492987 to double a $777,000 bankroll flat bet
.496931 to double a $777k bankroll with exact bets NOT avaviable in any casino
For a one time deal - not much a of difference to get worried about.

Conclusion for practical play: Useless
reality Bold Play
Just bet it all on an even money bet.
(Baccarat Banker bet does slightly better than craps odds when you can only make bets allowed by a casino)

That paper (good math BTW) was done because partly they were paid to do it.
S Etheir's Doctrine and Chances book 2010 does an even better job of showing the math for 3 casino types of Bold Play.

My simulations shows Bold Play with odds is no better, most times worse, than just bet it all when you have to make wagers only allowed in a casino.
A positive integer wager.

The bottom line.
If you want the best chance or close to the best chance to hit any win goal, do not bet the table minimum.
The more bets needed, the chances of success are lower.
This is easy to understand

Bet what it takes to hit the goal in the shortest amount of time, and when you are successful, pat yourself on the back.

Bold play, greedy programming algorithms, etc. often make very good choices.
There is always an advantage to bold action.
If that guy with the massive amount on the line wins, he gets congratulated.
I believe he came back a few years later, lost the bet and blew his brains out though.

Ashley Revell made that big bet on Roulette Red at the Plaza in 2004 and won (Red7)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashley_Revell

Then put the money into his own online poker.

he has yet to blow his brains out.

Quote: 7craps

My simulations shows Bold Play with odds is no better, most times worse, than just bet it all when you have to make wagers only allowed in a casino.
A positive integer wager.

I'd like to see these simulations, or better yet, math to the same effect. It seems very counterintuitive that it should be better to stunt your own edge that much, even if you are getting rid of the case of no point coming up.