House Edge on Even Money BJ payout

Can anyone tell me what the house edge is on a double deck BJ (pays 3:2) with no count, when the player has BJ and the dealer shows an Ace? How much do you give up by taking even money?? I believe the true edge on insurance - all hands is about 16.7%. Am I right in calculating it is about 4% in this specific situation --- Seems reasonable with a large bet only...

Thanks,
Paul

Since even money is insurance, it's the same as on insurance. Actually higher, since you've already taken a ten.
Out of 104 cards, 3 are known (T+2A), 31 are Ts, 70 are not Ts.
You risk 0.5 and 31 times out of 101 are returned 1.5 (0.5 back+even money on BJ). The return is 3*31/105=-0.92, or 92%, or a HA of 8%.

Also, the edge on insurance is not 16.7%, it's actually 6%-8% depending on shoe size and known hand composition.

Quote: P90

Since even money is insurance, it's the same as on insurance.

I agree that it is very important to realize that "even money" is just insurance in disguise, and it has the same house edge. Don't forget that insurance is a side bet. Assuming an infinite deck the house edge on insurance is 1/13 . The reasoning is that your side bet pays 2:1 if the hole card is a 10, which happens 4/13 fraction of the time. But you lose your side bet 9/13 of the the time. So the edge is 2*4/13 - 9/13 = -1/13 . Since you are not playing infinite number of decks, the actual edge depends on the number of decks and the count.

Insurance is insurance no matter what your cards are, even if you have a blackjack. The house edge is always calculated the same. But when the player has a blackjack you don't have to play any further. So if you win the side bet, you lose the main bet or if you lose the side bet, you win the main bet. Either way it comes out to "even money". But for purposes of calculating the house edge on the side bet (i.e. insurance), it is no different if the player has a blackjack.

It is one of the bag of tricks the casino uses. A huge percentage of players know that insurance is a "sucker" bet (because it is an easy rule to remember), but the overwhelming number of players will accept "even money". They don't realize that it is just an insurance bet in disguise.

Quote: pacomartin

I agree that it is very important to realize that "even money" is just insurance in disguise, and it has the same house edge.

The Wizard covered it in his BJ videos.

Even money is exactly the same as insurance.

Many casinos offer "even money" to disguise it, and also to simply the process for them.

I have played at casinos where you must actually buy insurance instead of taking even money. In this case, you put up the insurance money, and if they dealer has it, your BJ pushes, and your insurance is paid. If not, your insurance bet is taken, and your BJ is still paid 3:2, but it obviously still results in even money.

Either way, it's the exact same thing as insurance.