only1choice
only1choice
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April 29th, 2012 at 4:51:46 AM permalink
I couldn't find the answer to this question, will my astute comrades please break down the percentages for me. Last nite was difficult but was able to come back after about 5 hours. Throughout the night everytime I doubled on 11 I pulled an ace, 7 times in a row unbelievable!. Howevever I was winning a high percentage of the regular hands which included doubling on ten versus ten 7 of ten times. This is the first time I ever doubled on that combination. Please give me analysis of this play.
As always thanks in advance.
IF YOU PLAY "PLAY TO WIN"
WongBo
WongBo
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April 29th, 2012 at 7:07:05 AM permalink
not sure of the percentages if that is what you are after,
i can look it up when i get home.
but when counting, the general rule for most games
is to only double 10 vs. 10 when the count is over +4.
if playing basic strategy you are better off to hit instead.
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief. - Proverb.
only1choice
only1choice
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April 29th, 2012 at 7:39:02 AM permalink
Thanks
IF YOU PLAY "PLAY TO WIN"
weaselman
weaselman
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April 29th, 2012 at 7:41:46 AM permalink
Doubling 10 vs 10 is -0.00866 EV as opposed to hitting at +0.0253.
Basically, you give up about 3.5 cents of every dollar bet every time you do that.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
1BB
1BB
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April 29th, 2012 at 11:02:03 AM permalink
The index for doubling 10 vs A is also +4. Both plays are profitable at that point. Non counters should never double these hands.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
CrapsForever
CrapsForever
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April 29th, 2012 at 12:10:38 PM permalink
Quote: only1choice

I couldn't find the answer to this question, will my astute comrades please break down the percentages for me. Last nite was difficult but was able to come back after about 5 hours. Throughout the night everytime I doubled on 11 I pulled an ace, 7 times in a row unbelievable!. Howevever I was winning a high percentage of the regular hands which included doubling on ten versus ten 7 of ten times. This is the first time I ever doubled on that combination. Please give me analysis of this play.
As always thanks in advance.



Finally!!! This is an Anomaly!

Sorry about your loss but I share with your pain. Last year...I went through a streak in 2 days of pulling an ACE after Doubling on 11 (11 times in a row) Nobody that I told believed me. They said I was having "selective memory". I am happy someone can have a similar story to tell.

I also lost 20 hands in a row; 4 separate times in ONE week last year. This included changing shoes, different dealers, different casinos. What's the probablity of that?
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
winmonkeyspit3
winmonkeyspit3
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April 29th, 2012 at 9:36:40 PM permalink
Please do not double 10 v 10. I see people do it all the time and it kills me, as someone previously said, you are giving up 3 cents on a dollar. If you don't know basic strategy, learn it. Your money will last a lot longer. As someone on here said, if you really want to "take a gamble" so to speak, hit 13 v. 2 as this is a very marginal play but can "change the cards" or whatever people say to justify their decisions.
teddys
teddys
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April 29th, 2012 at 11:08:18 PM permalink
Quote: winmonkeyspit3

Please do not double 10 v 10. I see people do it all the time and it kills me, as someone previously said, you are giving up 3 cents on a dollar.

Yes, plus it's a very common situation and you will lose a lot of your expected return.

Was playing with a bunch of people who were surrendering everything tonight. It got so bad I was thinking of buying the surrenders from them.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
winmonkeyspit3
winmonkeyspit3
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April 30th, 2012 at 12:59:33 AM permalink
Quote: teddys

Yes, plus it's a very common situation and you will lose a lot of your expected return.

Was playing with a bunch of people who were surrendering everything tonight. It got so bad I was thinking of buying the surrenders from them.



And this is why comps are rated at 1% (or higher) HE on blackjack even if the edge on the game is very low. Throw in playing at full tables, taking breaks, finding a slower or talkative dealer, sidebets that other players are betting, and a kid like myself can be gambling for free or better with the comps I get, even when I'm not trying to count.
weaselman
weaselman
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April 30th, 2012 at 4:39:34 AM permalink
Quote: winmonkeyspit3

if you really want to "take a gamble" so to speak, hit 13 v. 2 as this is a very marginal play but can "change the cards" or whatever people say to justify their decisions.


It is not that marginal. - 0.3086 vs. -0.2865, so, you are giving up about 2 cents on a dollar. A little better than doubling a ten, but not by much.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
winmonkeyspit3
winmonkeyspit3
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April 30th, 2012 at 9:42:49 AM permalink
Quote: weaselman

It is not that marginal. - 0.3086 vs. -0.2865, so, you are giving up about 2 cents on a dollar. A little better than doubling a ten, but not by much.



I'm not a math guy, but very good to know. Do you have these EV's in a chart somewhere or are you calculating them manually (hope not). If you do have some sort of document that shows EV's at an even count I would be very curious to see it.
weaselman
weaselman
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April 30th, 2012 at 11:17:05 AM permalink
I have a little program I wrote that computes these things for various rule variations.
There is a chart on the Wizard's site, that looks like what you are looking for. (You may notice that the values I gave you before are a bit different from those in the chart - that is because I was doing them for the H17 variation, and Wizard's chart is for S17).
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
winmonkeyspit3
winmonkeyspit3
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April 30th, 2012 at 11:40:14 AM permalink
Quote: weaselman

I have a little program I wrote that computes these things for various rule variations.
There is a chart on the Wizard's site, that looks like what you are looking for. (You may notice that the values I gave you before are a bit different from those in the chart - that is because I was doing them for the H17 variation, and Wizard's chart is for S17).



Ahh thank you! This is very useful information!
Boney526
Boney526
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April 30th, 2012 at 10:28:51 PM permalink
If you are counting, there are times to double a 10v10, and hit 13v2. Although doubling 10v10 is more important, and assuming you have a large enough bankroll and are't betting full kelly, I wouldn't leave that play out.

If you are not counting, don't double 10v10. I'm pretty sure 10v10 is slightly positive if you hit, and slightly negative if you double.
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