Surrender advantage for players playing $3 and getting $2 back

I'm a dealer here in Puerto Rico and one of the tables that I work on is a $3/$100 low limit table. But, you can surrender $3 for $2. What is the advantage that the player has when this is true. Also, should game strategy be accommodated to fit with the $2 for $3 surrender advantage?

Rules:
A. 6 decks, only use 4.5
B. no resplitting aces,
C. Split 4 times,
D. 3/2 BJ pay
E. Dealer stands on all 17's.)

This very topic was brought up in another thread recently, about the same situation at a $5 table:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/8875-profitable-surrender/

It certainly does change things, but the advantage deminishes as the bet size gets bigger, making flat betting the way to go.

Quote: admirepr

Also, should game strategy be accommodated to fit with the $2 for $3 surrender advantage?

Certainly it would change the strategy. Normally the recommended move is to surrender if all possible moves have an expected value of -.50 or less. Now you should surrender if all possible moves (hit, stand, double or split) have an E.V. of -.3333 or less.

It is a little different than the game in the previous thread, that had a minimum of $5 which you can surrender for $2 (surrender on -.400 or less). Also the game in the previous thread only pays 6/5 blackjack.


Look up odds for 6 decks dealer stands on all 17's.
To get the exact odds, you need to know the "double after split" rule for your casino.

For instance double 8's against a dealer 10 would normally be played with a split, but you would surrender with these rules
Dealer, Player, Stand, Hit, Double, Split DAS-No , Split DAS-Yes, Probability
10 8,8 -0.536853 -0.535361 -1.070722 -0.486276 -0.475385 0.00162488

The probabilities are probably low enough that you won't turn the entire game to a player advantage. Even if it was a player advantage, the very low stakes mean that you won't win very much money.

For instance, these are the normal cases where you should surrender
Dealer: Player
9: 9,7 = 16
9: 10,6 = 16

10: 9,6 = 15
10: 10,5 = 15

10: 9,7 = 16
10: 10,6 = 16

A: 9,7 = 16
A: 10,6 = 16


Under the surrender $3 and get back $2 you would surrender all these cases.

Dealer: Player
10 : 4 , 2 = 6

9 : 7 , 5 = 12
9 : 8 , 4 = 12
9 : 9 , 3 = 12
9 : 10 , 2 = 12
10 : 7 , 5 = 12
10 : 8 , 4 = 12
10 : 9 , 3 = 12
10 : 10 , 2 = 12
A : 7 , 5 = 12
A : 8 , 4 = 12
A : 9 , 3 = 12
A : 10 , 2 = 12

8 : 7 , 6 = 13
8 : 8 , 5 = 13
9 : 7 , 6 = 13
9 : 8 , 5 = 13
9 : 9 , 4 = 13
9 : 10 , 3 = 13
10 : 7 , 6 = 13
10 : 8 , 5 = 13
10 : 9 , 4 = 13
10 : 10 , 3 = 13
A : 7 , 6 = 13
A : 8 , 5 = 13
A : 9 , 4 = 13
A : 10 , 3 = 13

8 : 8 , 6 = 14
8 : 9 , 5 = 14
8 : 10 , 4 = 14
9 : 8 , 6 = 14
9 : 9 , 5 = 14
9 : 10 , 4 = 14
10 : 8 , 6 = 14
10 : 9 , 5 = 14
10 : 10 , 4 = 14
A : 8 , 6 = 14
A : 9 , 5 = 14
A : 10 , 4 = 14

7 : 8 , 7 = 15
7 : 9 , 6 = 15
7 : 10 , 5 = 15
8 : 8 , 7 = 15
8 : 9 , 6 = 15
8 : 10 , 5 = 15
9 : 8 , 7 = 15
9 : 9 , 6 = 15
9 : 10 , 5 = 15
10 : 8 , 7 = 15
10 : 9 , 6 = 15
10 : 10 , 5 = 15
A : 8 , 7 = 15
A : 9 , 6 = 15
A : 10 , 5 = 15

7 : 9 , 7 = 16
7 : 10 , 6 = 16
8 : 9 , 7 = 16
8 : 10 , 6 = 16
9 : 9 , 7 = 16
9 : 10 , 6 = 16
10 : 9 , 7 = 16
10 : 10 , 6 = 16
A : 9 , 7 = 16
A : 10 , 6 = 16

8 : 9 , 8 = 17
8 : 10 , 7 = 17
9 : 9 , 8 = 17
9 : 10 , 7 = 17
10 : 9 , 8 = 17
10 : 10 , 7 = 17
A : 9 , 8 = 17
A : 10 , 7 = 17

PAIRS

10 : 3 , 3 = 6

9 : 6 , 6 = 12
10 : 6 , 6 = 12
A : 6 , 6 = 12

8 : 7 , 7 = 14
9 : 7 , 7 = 14
10 : 7 , 7 = 14
A : 7 , 7 = 14

9 : 8 , 8 = 16
10 : 8 , 8 = 16
A : 8 , 8 = 16

It's kind of pointless, isn't it? If you're playing $3 blackjack, the swing in EV from knowing the exact strategy for this round-up variation is going to net you...a few cents here and there.

I guess it's an interesting math exercise, I'm just not interested in it from that point of view.

Quote: AcesAndEights

It's kind of pointless, isn't it? If you're playing $3 blackjack, the swing in EV from knowing the exact strategy for this round-up variation is going to net you...a few cents here and there.

I guess it's an interesting math exercise, I'm just not interested in it from that point of view.

Well, by your reasoning $3 blackjack is pretty pointless.

But if surrendering a dollar every time the dealer shows a 9,10 or ace (except if you have 18-20) makes the house edge nearly zero, a flea might be able to sit and drink for free all night.

Quote: pacomartin

But if surrendering a dollar every time the dealer shows a 9,10 or ace (except if you have 18-20) makes the house edge nearly zero, a flea might be able to sit and drink for free all night.

No, not zero. It actually gives you a pretty substantial advantage.

I think that there would be a substantial edge. The casinos are willing to pay a dealer and a percentage of a floor supervisor's salary to have this $3 table. Shift that advantage to the player, it may be a dollar or two an hour. If you love to play, this can turn long term profits. Also, free drinks and potentially comps if enough hours are played would be nice.

The edge I am getting (with infinite decks) is about 1.8%. If you play 100 hands per hour, you'd be making about $5.40 on average. Not a huge profit, but still beats playing at a disadvantage.
As for the strategy, I am getting that you want to surrender all 12-17 (including 7,7 and 6,6) hands against 9-A, 14-17 against 8, 15-16 against 7. Also, surrender a 6 (yes, six, including 3,3) and a pair of 8s against a 10.

Also, betting at such low limits you aren't very likely to bust your bankroll. If I could chill in Puerto Rico and make $40.00 a day playing blackjack I'd do it in a minute.

I wonder if you could play 2 spots at $3 each and make double....

This is good advantage play.

It sure is, most supervisors aren't complete idiots though and will ask questions if they see you surrendering constantly.

yeah that makes sense. You can play 2 hands at a time.

Quote: admirepr

yeah that makes sense. You can play 2 hands at a time.

In general yes, but they must have discretion if they see what you are doing.

Quote: weaselman

The edge I am getting (with infinite decks) is about 1.8%. If you play 100 hands per hour, you'd be making about $5.40 on average. Not a huge profit, but still beats playing at a disadvantage.
As for the strategy, I am getting that you want to surrender all 12-17 (including 7,7 and 6,6) hands against 9-A, 14-17 against 8, 15-16 against 7. Also, surrender a 6 (yes, six, including 3,3) and a pair of 8s against a 10.

I used the actual tables and not the infinite deck approximation. The strategy was only slightly different.

I had
* all 12-17 (including 7,7 and 6,6) hands against 9-A (same)
* a pair of 8s against a 9,10, and an Ace. {include as part of above}
* 13-17 against 8 {include 13}
* 15-16 against 7 (same)
* 6 (yes, six, including 3,3) (same)

I would think you would give up the last two so that your play is a little bit camouflaged.

Quote: PacoMartin

Under the surrender $3 and get back $2 you would surrender all these cases.
Dealer: Player
10 : 4 , 2 = 6

9 : 7 , 5 = 12
9 : 8 , 4 = 12
9 : 9 , 3 = 12
9 : 10 , 2 = 12
10 : 7 , 5 = 12
10 : 8 , 4 = 12
10 : 9 , 3 = 12
10 : 10 , 2 = 12
A : 7 , 5 = 12
A : 8 , 4 = 12
A : 9 , 3 = 12
A : 10 , 2 = 12

8 : 7 , 6 = 13
8 : 8 , 5 = 13
9 : 7 , 6 = 13
9 : 8 , 5 = 13
9 : 9 , 4 = 13
9 : 10 , 3 = 13
10 : 7 , 6 = 13
10 : 8 , 5 = 13
10 : 9 , 4 = 13
10 : 10 , 3 = 13
A : 7 , 6 = 13
A : 8 , 5 = 13
A : 9 , 4 = 13
A : 10 , 3 = 13

8 : 8 , 6 = 14
8 : 9 , 5 = 14
8 : 10 , 4 = 14
9 : 8 , 6 = 14
9 : 9 , 5 = 14
9 : 10 , 4 = 14
10 : 8 , 6 = 14
10 : 9 , 5 = 14
10 : 10 , 4 = 14
A : 8 , 6 = 14
A : 9 , 5 = 14
A : 10 , 4 = 14

7 : 8 , 7 = 15
7 : 9 , 6 = 15
7 : 10 , 5 = 15
8 : 8 , 7 = 15
8 : 9 , 6 = 15
8 : 10 , 5 = 15
9 : 8 , 7 = 15
9 : 9 , 6 = 15
9 : 10 , 5 = 15
10 : 8 , 7 = 15
10 : 9 , 6 = 15
10 : 10 , 5 = 15
A : 8 , 7 = 15
A : 9 , 6 = 15
A : 10 , 5 = 15

7 : 9 , 7 = 16
7 : 10 , 6 = 16
8 : 9 , 7 = 16
8 : 10 , 6 = 16
9 : 9 , 7 = 16
9 : 10 , 6 = 16
10 : 9 , 7 = 16
10 : 10 , 6 = 16
A : 9 , 7 = 16
A : 10 , 6 = 16

8 : 9 , 8 = 17
8 : 10 , 7 = 17
9 : 9 , 8 = 17
9 : 10 , 7 = 17
10 : 9 , 8 = 17
10 : 10 , 7 = 17
A : 9 , 8 = 17
A : 10 , 7 = 17

PAIRS

10 : 3 , 3 = 6

9 : 6 , 6 = 12
10 : 6 , 6 = 12
A : 6 , 6 = 12

8 : 7 , 7 = 14
9 : 7 , 7 = 14
10 : 7 , 7 = 14
A : 7 , 7 = 14

9 : 8 , 8 = 16
10 : 8 , 8 = 16
A : 8 , 8 = 16

Quote: pacomartin

Well, by your reasoning $3 blackjack is pretty pointless.

But if surrendering a dollar every time the dealer shows a 9,10 or ace (except if you have 18-20) makes the house edge nearly zero, a flea might be able to sit and drink for free all night.

Point. As someone who enjoys the occasional adult beverage, I can definitely see the appeal of this game.

And as to playing 2 hands, if I were working in the pit and saw a player with 2 hands of $3 each, I would make them give up $3 total every time they surrendered both hands, which would happen fairly often given the correct strategy for this game.

Quote: AcesAndEights

Point. As someone who enjoys the occasional adult beverage, I can definitely see the appeal of this game.

And as to playing 2 hands, if I were working in the pit and saw a player with 2 hands of $3 each, I would make them give up $3 total every time they surrendered both hands, which would happen fairly often given the correct strategy for this game.

Particularly if you surrendered two hands with a each hand having a sum of 6. You would have a hard time explaining that by acting drunk. Oops, did I surrender a 4,2 and a pair of 3's again! How many times have I done that tonight.

It just doesn't seem like a loophole you can exploit to make money. But it is a nice way to hang out in Puerto Rico and kill time and drink for free.