question about Conditional probability
December 26th, 2011 at 9:01:40 PM
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I have followed the method about "Pair Splitting Ev" discribed on Theory of blackjack 5th pag 155, which I guess is the same approach that the wizard has described elsewhere on this site.
I can run exaustive dealer-player hands with a subrutine, to get Ev's for standing/hitting/doubling
Now the question is as follows:
- 1 Deck
- Two 8's has been splitted: hand(1) = "8,9,2" ; hand(2) "8" ; versus Dealer up card: 7
- So, cards out of the deck are: "8,8,9,2,7"
- One condition: the card to be deal right now is a non-eight (as Griffin pointed out in his methodology)
At this point, what is the chance for dealer having a "5" underneath ?
the answer is 44/46*4/45
The question how is the conditional probability formula that Griffin uses to get that number.
Any guideline on this I'll appreciate.
I can run exaustive dealer-player hands with a subrutine, to get Ev's for standing/hitting/doubling
Now the question is as follows:
- 1 Deck
- Two 8's has been splitted: hand(1) = "8,9,2" ; hand(2) "8" ; versus Dealer up card: 7
- So, cards out of the deck are: "8,8,9,2,7"
- One condition: the card to be deal right now is a non-eight (as Griffin pointed out in his methodology)
At this point, what is the chance for dealer having a "5" underneath ?
the answer is 44/46*4/45
The question how is the conditional probability formula that Griffin uses to get that number.
Any guideline on this I'll appreciate.
