Ace up card bust percentage ?

When dealer up card is an Ace, dealer will bust about 11.5% considering that there may be a blackjack involved. But after he peeks and see there is no blackjack how frequently the dealer will bust ? I think he will bust about 34.2%, but I am not sure if I am right ?

Quote: PlayHunter

I think he will bust about 34.2%, but I am not sure if I am right ?

Well, that is a pretty precise figure, so how did you work it out or is that a figure you recall reading about somewhere?

No, I have a chart for all possible totals when dealer shows an Ace up card. (but it is considered before to peek) And I can see 13.1% for drawing to 17, 13.2% for drawing to 18, 13.2% for drawing to 19 and 13.2% for drawing to 20. So I have assumed that should be 13.1% or 13.2% for drawing to 21. -- And that would lead to a 34.2% bust when does not have a blackjack.

I wish it was 34.2%! It's actually 16.6% after the dealer checks for blackjack. It will be higher if the dealer hits soft 17.

Thanks ! (so I was terrible wrong)

Quote: PlayHunter

When dealer up card is an Ace, dealer will bust about 11.5% considering that there may be a blackjack involved. But after he peeks and see there is no blackjack how frequently the dealer will bust ? I think he will bust about 34.2%, but I am not sure if I am right ?

You are wrong the dealer will bust 20% of the time with an ace up card assuming the dealer hits soft 17. If the dealer stays on soft 17 she will bust out 17% of the time.

The info about the chart I was talking it says that dealer with an Ace up card will bust 11.65% ? and can be found here:

http://blackjackdoc.com/blackjack-probabilities.htm

Quote: PlayHunter

The info about the chart I was talking it says that dealer with an Ace up card will bust 11.65% ? and can be found here:

http://blackjackdoc.com/blackjack-probabilities.htm

You are correct. The 11.65% is for S17 BEFORE the dealer checks for blackjack. Cardcounter is also correct. His numbers are for AFTER the dealer checks for blackjack. Assuming shoe games there are 4 different numbers for the dealers breaking percentage with an ace showing. Now, who wants to look up the 4th one? Not I.

These statistics can be fun but they won't help you on a live game. I have a lot of them in my head only because I am a proud graduate of the College of Useless Knowledge.

Quote: 1BB

You are correct. The 11.65% is for S17 BEFORE the dealer checks for blackjack. Cardcounter is also correct. His numbers are for AFTER the dealer checks for blackjack. Assuming shoe games there are 4 different numbers for the dealers breaking percentage with an ace showing. Now, who wants to look up the 4th one? Not I.

Thanks, yes now I am clear. CardCounter meant to say that I was wrong with my 34.2% supposition (which is indeed very true), but my misunderstanding was that I thought he was referring to the 11.5% percent. I guess it was my fault, sorry for that !

Quote: 1BB

These statistics can be fun but they won't help you on a live game. I have a lot of them in my head only because I am a proud graduate of the College of Useless Knowledge.

Well, yes these statistics will not help me while playing against a dealer, but I think there is a chance to make me take the right decision while playing in a blackjack tournament, and specially on the last hand when/if a player versus player situation arise.