Card Count Modified Basic Strategy

I could not find any details about this on the Wizard of Odds site so ended up here submitting a question about it...
I want to know what modifying basic strategy up to real counts of +6 to -6 for a 6 deck game, S17, DAS. Or even better, what would this add to the players advantage (or reduce their disadvantage). Based on the answer to this it will state whether it is worth learning.

If anyone also can advise which are the most important variations in strategy to focus upon (ie something like the table used on the Simple Basic Strategy variations shown on the Wizard of Odds site in the appendix)

All you really need to know is the "Illustrious 18" index for the hi-lo count. There is extensive coverage about it on the internet but the Wizard's write up is particularly good.

The illustrious 18 gains about 90 percent of the advantage of the full index of strategy exceptions while obviously being far easier to memorize.

Please note these index numbers alone while flat betting an entire shoe will not gain you an advantage over the house, rather it will simply reduce the house edge. Furthermore, what reduction in the house edge you gain will very much vary based on deck penetration. True counts such as +3 and +4 often only happen quite deep in to the shoe. If penetration is poor you will be playing few or no hands at this advantage.

Also, the index numbers do not do too much for very negative counts which will occur with equal frequency as the positive ones. If you are not using any spread, you should pull your bet back in this situation. Obviously you do not have to worry about cover if flat betting so you can do this as often as you wish. By doing this, you may be playing quite close to an 'even' game with the house if penetration is good enough. Still not quite there though.

Interestingly taking insurance at true counts greater than or equal to +3 is the most powerful strategy deviation. It makes up roughly one-third of the benefits of the Illustrious 18.

OK thanks for pointing me to that part of the site. I did think that subject would have had a separate section title actually but i can see that it belongs under card counting of course.

I checked out the pages but still did not find the exact answer I was looking for which is what the percentage benefit is of doing the modification to strategy based on count. I see that I get one third of the advantage by just using the insurance rule, and also that I can get eighty percent or so of the benefit available simply by following the rules cited. But I do not see where the figure for the overall percentage benefit is. I can deduce from what you say that it is not enough to give me an advantage over the house so it must be quite small, like less than half a percent.

Also, I use the HI Opt I system that is described in the Greatest Blackjack Book as it is titled. The reason I went for this was to keep the count work to a minium and obtain the maximum impact, which is what is explained in the book. So would these rules work with that system also?

Peter

All I can say is that the index numbers will be a bit different for hi-opt 1. This count does have a higher playing efficiency so technically will be more powerful for your purposes, but I do not know the index numbers. Perhaps someone here knows them or has a link to them.

With regard to your overall expected value using your strategy, nearly all numbers in this regard are calculated using a bet spread tied to specific counts. It is rarely broken down like you are looking for because it is not a common counting activity to flat bet, and the change in advantages are relatively small. Again perhaps someone can chime in with more info, but I could not find a link to the information you requested on any of the common card-counting resource sites.

There are lots of figures available on the house/player advantage at each count, which is the same regardless of bet size. However, you do not know what counts will appear in the shoe, and with flat betting, the advantages perfectly even themselves out to equal the house edge. Introducing basic strategy changes does alter things, and you need to know what advantage that brings you overall, not per hand at a specific count. But as I said the publicly available figures on overall advantage are always calculated as the advantage with a specified bet spread. There is also far less information on hi-opt 1.

Your best bet would be to purchase casino verite and run a simulation.

OK thanks again Pocketaces, thanks for looking. Seems like you know a lot in this field and at least it appears I did not ask such a dumb question apart from the fact that I should also use bet ranges of course!

I just find that bet ranging can give some upsets to the bank roll over the short term which can be quite significant and with starting bets being around my level of comfort that makes such casino play hard for me to engage in.

I am from the UK and the only place I have seen shoes where you can count is in Poland...and they wiped me out quicker than any CSM I have come across at the rest of the casinos I have been to in Europe (I have a theory about that one!). You can count a little in Germany as they tend to deal a pack or so without feeding back into the CSM as a house rule, but I know this is not much deck penetration so counted numbers are likely to be small.

I have tended to just set a target of winning say four betting units out of ten and then quitting when I have reached this. If I lose the ten then I walk away.

Are there any free simulators out there or are they all just for sale?

Peter

There are a few casinos I have seen around my Area with shoe-dealt blackjack games.

In particular, one casino has a £2-£20 shoe-dealt game on friday and saturday nights and smallest regular shoe-game is £5 minimum.

Another one I visit had shoes operating on their £25 and up tables but I haven't seen this recently so assume they jumped on the CSM bandwagon.

The Grosvenor casinos use CSM's in my experience for all limits so if counting is your plan, avoid the "G"