BJ Coupon / less doubling chart

Came across this Wiz chart below. I found it in an ask-the-WoO where the questioner aks "What changes should one make to blackjack basic strategy when playing just a single hand when the objective is to maximize the chance of winning that hand (for example when using a match play coupon)?" I gather that the issue mostly is how much to double, since you have more chances to win the hand outright if you can get more than one additional card, which doubling doesnt allow. My question is whether the chart would be additionally modified for a "free ace" coupon, giving you an ace for your first card, which is an even more valuable coupon. It seems especially important to maximize the chances of winning outright with this coupon, and less important to increase the nominal EV by doubling.

I am even thinking of not doubling in any circumstance using the free ace coupon. Your thoughts?

I don't understand this chart. Surely, doubling on 9 vs. 6, while is a good move in terms of EV, does not maximize the probability of winning the hand ...

In general, I tend to agree with your observation - it seems, that if you want to maximize the probability of a win, you should never double at all, as that always decreases your probability.

I don't see why you would use that strategy with a free ace coupon though. I would think you want to maximize your EV weather you are using a coupon or not. Don't see how having a coupon in this case makes EV less important.
I kinda see it with match play (although, still not entirely), because, by winning you kinda turn a coupon into free money ... one could view it that way, I guess ... but I still would not. Unless, this is the only bet you are ever going to make, it does not matter if you are playing with or without a coupon this particular time, you should just play the regular way to maximize the EV.

I can't seem to learn my lesson, doesnt seem coupon questions are going to get much more than puzzlement

however, bumping this just in case

PS: thanks for your input, weasalman

My thoughts: Pretty easy to do your own analysis with the free ace coupon, since there are only a few limited situations that you will find yourself in. (And the most likely result is that you will get a blackjack!)

I would only hestitate to double a soft total like 13-16 against a weak dealer upcard 4-6. Everything else I would play out according to basic strategy (including and especially splitting aces).

It depends on how much of your bankroll you are betting. See 42.08% by James Grosjean and Previn Mankod. Looking at those numbers makes even my head spin.

Quote: miplet

Looking at those numbers makes even my head spin.

No kidding. Thanks,though, still worth looking at, for example this statement:

"Look at the entries for A6 v. 4-6. These hands are special because the restriction to take only
one card on a double down does not change the play of the cards. Even if we do not double, basic
strategy dictates that we will take only one hit card."

Quote: weaselman

I don't understand this chart. Surely, doubling on 9 vs. 6, while is a good move in terms of EV, does not maximize the probability of winning the hand ...

In general, I tend to agree with your observation - it seems, that if you want to maximize the probability of a win, you should never double at all, as that always decreases your probability.

I don't see why you would use that strategy with a free ace coupon though. I would think you want to maximize your EV weather you are using a coupon or not. Don't see how having a coupon in this case makes EV less important.
I kinda see it with match play (although, still not entirely), because, by winning you kinda turn a coupon into free money ... one could view it that way, I guess ... but I still would not. Unless, this is the only bet you are ever going to make, it does not matter if you are playing with or without a coupon this particular time, you should just play the regular way to maximize the EV.

We double 9v3 in regular BJ as the benefits of doubling exceed the costs of not being able to have a second hit card. Because match play doubling is effectively "doubling for less", the increased payout no longer overcomes the reduced win probability. Other doubles, such as 11v6 are so powerful that they are even profitable when done for less.

Quote: kmcd

We double 9v3 in regular BJ as the benefits of doubling exceed the costs of not being able to have a second hit card. Because match play doubling is effectively "doubling for less", the increased payout no longer overcomes the reduced win probability. Other doubles, such as 11v6 are so powerful that they are even profitable when done for less.

most matchplay coupons let you double on your bet and the matchplay coupon portion so if you have a $10 bet and a $10 matchplay coupon you can double for $20.