Player's decision influences outcome in BJ?
December 7th, 2009 at 8:47:38 PM
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Hi, I'm a newbie to BJ, and I heard that each player's decision will effect the others. Say I hit when I'm not supposed to, and made everyone else lose their hand because the dealer didn't bust at the end. Or I stand when I'm supposed to hit, so on and so forth. Is this true? How does my decision effect others probability-wise? And how does others effect my outcome?
I also read somewhere that the more players or hands are played at a table of BJ, the better the chances are against the House? Is that true? In other words, I should be playing at a full table all the time?
I also read somewhere that the more players or hands are played at a table of BJ, the better the chances are against the House? Is that true? In other words, I should be playing at a full table all the time?
December 7th, 2009 at 9:13:18 PM
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No, no and no. Ignore all this stuff you 'hear' from random gamblers, and stick to the facts presented by the experts. Your decisions have absolutely no effect on probability of winning of other players.
Exactly which cards are dealt out of the shoe to each player is constantly changed by many factors including the shuffle, the cut, and how players play their hands. But they are still random, and any decision you make is equally likely to help as it is to hurt. You are just shuffling the cards slightly differently than if you had made the other decision.
Think of it like this: Say you were offered the choice of throwing a coin and letting it drop, or having the coin thrown and then flipped over one final time manually after it landed. Does it matter what you choose? Of course not. You will certainly change the outcome, but it is still completely random.
Exactly which cards are dealt out of the shoe to each player is constantly changed by many factors including the shuffle, the cut, and how players play their hands. But they are still random, and any decision you make is equally likely to help as it is to hurt. You are just shuffling the cards slightly differently than if you had made the other decision.
Think of it like this: Say you were offered the choice of throwing a coin and letting it drop, or having the coin thrown and then flipped over one final time manually after it landed. Does it matter what you choose? Of course not. You will certainly change the outcome, but it is still completely random.
December 8th, 2009 at 4:26:56 AM
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I will echo previous poster: you will change the outcome, but it is still completely random.
The problem is that your decision DOES affect the outcome on THIS hand, in a looking-backwards way. That is, once you have played out the hand, the others can tell if you made them lose by your decision. Then they get angry. But they rarely (never?) thank you the other half of the time when your decision secured the win.
In the long-run, it doesn't matter what you do. You will not affect anyone's probability of winning except your own!
The problem is that your decision DOES affect the outcome on THIS hand, in a looking-backwards way. That is, once you have played out the hand, the others can tell if you made them lose by your decision. Then they get angry. But they rarely (never?) thank you the other half of the time when your decision secured the win.
In the long-run, it doesn't matter what you do. You will not affect anyone's probability of winning except your own!
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
December 8th, 2009 at 4:31:40 AM
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As for the question about the full table... more players at the table means less hands per hour for you. Since the house edge applies to every hand, this means less expected loss per hour. But the probability of winning each hand stays the same (ignoring a possible but very subtle cut card effect?!)
So, you could say you should play at a full table, to minimize your expected loss per hour!
So, you could say you should play at a full table, to minimize your expected loss per hour!
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
December 8th, 2009 at 6:05:10 AM
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Your actions do affect everyone else's actions of course. If you draw a card, that card that you take could have been the next player's card, and so on. That's why you will be rebuked at the table for making a bad play, especially if the dealer ends up making a hand because of your wrong play. You will also be rebuked from time to time for the dealer making a hand because of your correct play.
If you are unsure about your play, there are a few things you can do to avoid this.
(1) Take a strategy card with you. You can buy them sometimes in the gift shop or you can download them from wizardofodds.com. They are perfectly legal and will allow you to understand what play you will make, and will save you money.
(2) Avoid playing "third base", the seat immediately before the dealer, as your play will get scrutinized the most.
(3) Don't be afraid to ask for advice, both from the other players (who may not know) or from the dealer (who also may think they know but do not).
Finally, remember that the next card drawn will indeed be random. Your bad play has the same likelihood of helping the table as it does of hurting it. Experienced players know this. Most players like other players who know basic strategy.
If you are unsure about your play, there are a few things you can do to avoid this.
(1) Take a strategy card with you. You can buy them sometimes in the gift shop or you can download them from wizardofodds.com. They are perfectly legal and will allow you to understand what play you will make, and will save you money.
(2) Avoid playing "third base", the seat immediately before the dealer, as your play will get scrutinized the most.
(3) Don't be afraid to ask for advice, both from the other players (who may not know) or from the dealer (who also may think they know but do not).
Finally, remember that the next card drawn will indeed be random. Your bad play has the same likelihood of helping the table as it does of hurting it. Experienced players know this. Most players like other players who know basic strategy.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
December 8th, 2009 at 8:24:47 AM
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It's like 20/20 hindsight - with blinders!
If your bad play hurts the table, you will hear about it, and get the blame -- but only after the final results are in showing that your bad play hurt the table.
If your bad play helps the table, you will hear about it, but get none of the credit.
Ask for advice if you want it, but don't ask if you're not going to follow the advice. Asking then doing something else will really get them mad -- regardless of the outcome.
If your bad play hurts the table, you will hear about it, and get the blame -- but only after the final results are in showing that your bad play hurt the table.
If your bad play helps the table, you will hear about it, but get none of the credit.
Ask for advice if you want it, but don't ask if you're not going to follow the advice. Asking then doing something else will really get them mad -- regardless of the outcome.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
December 8th, 2009 at 8:41:48 AM
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Quote: boymimbo
(3) Don't be afraid to ask for advice, both from the other players (who may not know) or from the dealer (who also may think they know but do not).
Asking for advice from the dealer might or might not work. I deal "monte carlo nights" so I get 80%+ players who barely know the game. Even for a "fun" night no one likes advice that makes them lose. So I will say something like:
1. I can tell you what "the book" says to do
2. Well, the guy who said to do it also invented hedge funds and is a billionare so I trust him!
3. Here's the strategy card, I can help you read is. Been tested over a billion hands.
In other words, I present myself as someone who understands, believes, and trusts the math behind it all. Over usual 2 hour sessions I have yet to see more than 1 in 20 players lose all of the 10 units we give them to start if they play basic strategy. (we are set up with about a 1-2% advantage based on Wiz's calcualtors.)
OTOH, we have another dealer, very nice lady. She deals at a real casino also. However, I once spend over half an hour arguing with her that how she plays 3rd base cannot affect the table. (Last time I do that.) So assume you get someone like that and they say to stand on your 12 against a dealer 7 upcard.
Thus I'd say read this and Wiz's main site, get a strategy card, and if you still ask advice, see if they fall into the "math" or "luck" camp. If you are betting on "luck" I'd say simply play a low-stakes game, bet an odd number, then keep the "Kennedy Half" they pay you out with. They flip nicely, which is as good as "luck" advice.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
May 5th, 2011 at 8:50:54 PM
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anyone who tells you that your decision doesnt effect the next players odds is full of it. the truth to the matter is that it in fact does. the thing is that that person doesnt matter to you anyways so forget about them, they are not your problem. if they lose because you hit and they got a bad ten, so what they are gambling! it doesnt effect you at all if they lose or win. worry about your own hand. and its best to play as the last man to act so you get to see the most cards before you make you decision so you can dodge that from other players and hopefully bust the dealer. or play as the first man to act so no one else will effect the outcome of your hand. however they can influence the outcome of the dealers hand and hence make you lose. either way dont listen to the ones who say it doesnt effect others, in fact it does even that cards are random. to answer your question YES!
May 6th, 2011 at 4:25:24 AM
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Quote: ponyboyanyone who tells you that your decision doesnt effect the next players odds is full of it. the truth to the matter is that it in fact does. the thing is that that person doesnt matter to you anyways so forget about them, they are not your problem. if they lose because you hit and they got a bad ten, so what they are gambling! it doesnt effect you at all if they lose or win. worry about your own hand. and its best to play as the last man to act so you get to see the most cards before you make you decision so you can dodge that from other players and hopefully bust the dealer. or play as the first man to act so no one else will effect the outcome of your hand. however they can influence the outcome of the dealers hand and hence make you lose. either way dont listen to the ones who say it doesnt effect others, in fact it does even that cards are random. to answer your question YES!
The world's brightest mathematicians are not "full of it". The odds of winning any blackjack hand are slightly over 43%. This will happen whether you are playing with top professionals or the completely clueless. Every game has the house edge over the non-counter. The perfect basic strategy player will lose that house edge percentage over time, while the poor player will lose a higher percentage. The poor player cannot alter the house advantage against another player. I count five questions in the original post by Smirk and the answers are no, it doesn't, they don't, no and no!
We need people to keep believing these myths so that the game of blackjack will remain playable. Superstitious players are always welcome at my table as long as they don't slow down the game too much.
May 6th, 2011 at 4:57:16 AM
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There is some Road Rage over pavement the drivers don't own but act if they did and some Player Rage over cards that they don't own but act as if Destiny had decreed a particular card to be for them.
Do some people play Basic Strategy but still modify whimsically from time to time? Sure. Do they hurt themselves, the other players or the house? Makes little difference. I wonder what happens when a newly arrived player joins the table and gets the card that but for that player's actions Destiny would have meant it for the Dealer! I don't mean that the newly arrived player has opted to hit, I simply mean by his act of sitting down and putting chips in the betting circle, he has taken what would otherwise have been the Dealer's card. Yet no one criticizes him for joining the game, only for playing it in a manner not in accord with someone's beliefs.
Do some people play Basic Strategy but still modify whimsically from time to time? Sure. Do they hurt themselves, the other players or the house? Makes little difference. I wonder what happens when a newly arrived player joins the table and gets the card that but for that player's actions Destiny would have meant it for the Dealer! I don't mean that the newly arrived player has opted to hit, I simply mean by his act of sitting down and putting chips in the betting circle, he has taken what would otherwise have been the Dealer's card. Yet no one criticizes him for joining the game, only for playing it in a manner not in accord with someone's beliefs.
May 6th, 2011 at 5:40:08 AM
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Quote: FleaStiffI wonder what happens when a newly arrived player joins the table and gets the card that but for that player's actions Destiny would have meant it for the Dealer! I don't mean that the newly arrived player has opted to hit, I simply mean by his act of sitting down and putting chips in the betting circle, he has taken what would otherwise have been the Dealer's card. Yet no one criticizes him for joining the game, only for playing it in a manner not in accord with someone's beliefs.
I have, in fact, seen a player become absolutely livid over this situation. A new player joined our table mid-shoe, played one hand, then left. The other player at my table absolutely freaked out. Yelled obscenities at the guy all the way across the casino. Given an opportunity, I think he would've shanked him in the parking lot.
May 6th, 2011 at 5:56:53 AM
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Quote: PapaChubbyA new player joined our table mid-shoe, played one hand, then left.
Clearly the casino sent in this guy to do this as everybody was winning too much money no doubt.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
May 6th, 2011 at 7:34:13 AM
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you taking their card that they needed to have the 43% def effects their odds, especially if the card makes them bust. hence it effected them. sometimes in blackjack you had a 100% chance of losing from the beginning ex busting your 12, and the dealer flipped a blackjack anyways, you couldnt win no matter how hard you tryed.
the house has even an edge over a player who counts cards. no matter what the count is, you cant stop your self from busting, and or if you didnt hit because the count was high, you cant stopp the dealer from standing something better then you.
in effect the game of blackjack is truly unbeatable, yet counting cards does in fact give you better odds then normal.
the house has even an edge over a player who counts cards. no matter what the count is, you cant stop your self from busting, and or if you didnt hit because the count was high, you cant stopp the dealer from standing something better then you.
in effect the game of blackjack is truly unbeatable, yet counting cards does in fact give you better odds then normal.
May 6th, 2011 at 7:41:24 AM
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I haven't read the thread, but the question seems pretty simple.
Card games in general consist of related events. a card given to one player cannot be given to another. So, yes, if I take an unnecessary card in BJ, I'm affecting events further down the table. But I'm also affecting them, albeit in a different way, if I don't take that card.
But it doesn't matter at all, because you dont' know the order of the cards being dealt. So for every instance of an idiot player taking "the dealer's bust card," there must be a like number of instances of an idiot player forcing "a bust card on the dealer." I don't care if you're counting or not, either. A coutner knows the general composition of the remainder of the deck, not the specific composition.
Card games in general consist of related events. a card given to one player cannot be given to another. So, yes, if I take an unnecessary card in BJ, I'm affecting events further down the table. But I'm also affecting them, albeit in a different way, if I don't take that card.
But it doesn't matter at all, because you dont' know the order of the cards being dealt. So for every instance of an idiot player taking "the dealer's bust card," there must be a like number of instances of an idiot player forcing "a bust card on the dealer." I don't care if you're counting or not, either. A coutner knows the general composition of the remainder of the deck, not the specific composition.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
May 6th, 2011 at 8:00:05 AM
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Quote: ponyboy
the house has even an edge over a player who counts cards. no matter what the count is, you cant stop your self from busting, and or if you didnt hit because the count was high, you cant stopp the dealer from standing something better then you.
in effect the game of blackjack is truly unbeatable, yet counting cards does in fact give you better odds then normal.
This is just terrifyingly naive and incorrect. You need to stop trying to design casino games and focus on something you understand better.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
May 6th, 2011 at 8:03:04 AM
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lol your smoked.
i was making various side bets not casino games.
no matter what the count is, you cant stop yourself from getting a 16 your afraid to hit because you think a ten is comming, and have the dealer get a blackjack or stand a 17 that you couldnt get past a 16 with because you would have gotten a ten and lost either way. what if someone got up or sat down during you PERFECT count and system? it would push the cards either 1 up or pull them 1 down for you, messing you up. counting cards is effective, but not a guarantee. come count cards at my house, i'll still rob you in the long run.
i was making various side bets not casino games.
no matter what the count is, you cant stop yourself from getting a 16 your afraid to hit because you think a ten is comming, and have the dealer get a blackjack or stand a 17 that you couldnt get past a 16 with because you would have gotten a ten and lost either way. what if someone got up or sat down during you PERFECT count and system? it would push the cards either 1 up or pull them 1 down for you, messing you up. counting cards is effective, but not a guarantee. come count cards at my house, i'll still rob you in the long run.
May 6th, 2011 at 8:12:52 AM
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otherwise tell me how you stop "that' from happening by counting cards?? lol you cant!
May 6th, 2011 at 8:17:23 AM
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yes, counting cards does give you a good idea of what MIGHT happen, but it wont stop the cards from doing what they where destined to do.
May 6th, 2011 at 8:17:28 AM
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Quote: ponyboycome count cards at my house, i'll still rob you in the long run.
It'd depend on the other rules of the game, but generally no. No you wouldn't. Counting cards isn't about one hand, it's about the average return over dozens of hours of play. I'm not counting because I want to know for sure that I won't bust the 16 in your example, that's just silly. Very very silly.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
May 6th, 2011 at 8:24:47 AM
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and in those dozens of hours of play the cards would be shuffled scores of times. and even over dozens of hours of play and high counts, you cant stop from getting in a pickle like that over and over, and losing high rolling bets.
May 6th, 2011 at 8:31:00 AM
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Quote: ponyboyand in those dozens of hours of play the cards would be shuffled scores of times. and even over dozens of hours of play and high counts, you cant stop from getting in a pickle like that over and over, and losing high rolling bets.
Sure. And winning slightly more than I lose. And that is the whole point. when the goal is to win 50.1% of the time, I do have to lose 49.9% of the time (ignoring ties).
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
May 6th, 2011 at 8:36:34 AM
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yeah, you can sure make a goal to win 50.1% of the time, but like i said you cant stop a deck of cards from guaranteeing that you will lose 100% by locking you in the pickle over and over. ive counted cards just like you are supposed to, and have still lost my money because i got locked in a rut like that. if i hit or stood i lost because i couldnt hit without busting or get past the dealers stand.
May 6th, 2011 at 8:38:28 AM
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Quote: ponyboyand in those dozens of hours of play the cards would be shuffled scores of times. and even over dozens of hours of play and high counts, you cant stop from getting in a pickle like that over and over, and losing high rolling bets.
Just what Benny Binion thought when taking Ken Uston's action. LOL
May 6th, 2011 at 8:40:14 AM
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lol what are you smoking? i want some.
May 6th, 2011 at 8:41:04 AM
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Quote: ponyboyive counted cards just like you are supposed to, and have still lost my money because i got locked in a rut like that.
Based on what you're saying here, I'd say there's a 0.0001% chance that you counted cards correctly. And I'm being generous.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
May 6th, 2011 at 8:41:41 AM
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Look in your top dresser drawer.
May 6th, 2011 at 8:42:48 AM
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2-6 +1 789 0 10's and aces -1.
like i said it doesnt matter what the count is, it wont stoop the cards from doing that.
like i said it doesnt matter what the count is, it wont stoop the cards from doing that.
May 6th, 2011 at 8:44:03 AM
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how about instead of you guys being ignorant, how about you prove your points like i am?
May 6th, 2011 at 8:46:38 AM
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im not here to argue like little kids, im always going to think the way i do, i really want to learn how to beat that.
May 6th, 2011 at 8:48:44 AM
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personally i think its not possible. im here to learn. i really wish to know how counting cards will change that from happening?
May 6th, 2011 at 8:50:45 AM
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Quote: ponyboypersonally i think its not possible. im here to learn. i really wish to know how counting cards will change that from happening?
Do you happen to have a relative who bought half of a restaurant by playing a roulette system in Milwaukee?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
May 6th, 2011 at 8:59:04 AM
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Quote: rdw4potusDo you happen to have a relative who bought half of a restaurant by playing a roulette system in Milwaukee?
again, im not here to be ignorant or argue, im here to learn.
May 6th, 2011 at 9:01:30 AM
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the inability to prove me wrong only reinforces my point.
May 6th, 2011 at 9:01:47 AM
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Quote: ponyboyagain, im not here to be ignorant or argue, im here to learn.
Go learn...
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
May 6th, 2011 at 9:03:12 AM
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May 6th, 2011 at 3:47:11 PM
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Quote: ponyboyQuote: rdw4potus
yet again, my point is proven.
The only point you've proven is that you don't know much about blackjack and that's okay because we've all been there. What's not clear is your desire and motives. If you truly want to learn as you claim you do, click on the link that was provided, open your mind and start reading. Be willing to accept the fact that experts a lot smarter than you and me have analyzed every aspect of the game and agree that the strategies presented are sound.
Once you realize that some of your ideas may not be accurate and that doing the same things over and over won't make them correct you'll have some questions. The members of this forum will be happy to answer them and will go out of their way to research them for you if they can't get an immediate answer.
April 21st, 2012 at 7:36:29 PM
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Quote: buzzpaffJust what Benny Binion thought when taking Ken Uston's action. LOL
Love this!!!
April 21st, 2012 at 8:12:31 PM
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I believe Ken's daughter is selling George, the greatest counter in the world.
Fits inside your shoe
Fits inside your shoe
April 21st, 2012 at 8:17:59 PM
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Quote: buzzpaffI believe Ken's daughter is selling George, the greatest counter in the world.
Fits inside your shoe
Too hot for me to handle-I'll pass
April 23rd, 2012 at 3:42:01 AM
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Quote: PapaChubbyI have, in fact, seen a player become absolutely livid over this situation. A new player joined our table mid-shoe, played one hand, then left. The other player at my table absolutely freaked out. Yelled obscenities at the guy all the way across the casino. Given an opportunity, I think he would've shanked him in the parking lot.
I always get a kick out of players that get mad at players jumping in and out of the shoe. Actually it annoys me more than anything. But if I play BJ, which is rare, I always press my bet by a unit after a win. If I've won several hands in a row I don't want someone to jump in, cause I'd rather lose with nothing changing than to lose after someone jumping in. It's purely psychological.
I've also noticed that you can't convince people that their stupidstitions are meaningless or that their logic is flawed.
My advice to OP is NEVER take advice from ANYONE in the casino, at least not right then and there. Do some research on their answer first. Chances are, they're wrong. In general advice to BRAND NEW players is good, it's a few specific situation they get wrong, like taking even money on BJ with a dealer Ace showing.
