blackjack Incentives

Background to the question
In downtown Vegas revenue on the same number of blackjack tables has gone from $664 per table day for the year ending October 2007, down to $486 per table day for the most recent year of data. That is roughly twice the $264 per machine day that a Megabucks machine generates. The Vegas strip is roughly three times higher.

The gaming commission posts the win percent of for downtown BJ tables at 12.44% which corresponds to $3907 "drop per table day".

Of course, there is no firm statistic on the average amount of replays on that $3907 drop. If the game has a .5% house average you would have to replay the money a whopping 26-27 times to get 12.44% win percent if all players were playing flawless strategy.

It seems like a closer estimate would be that average player is playing at closer to 3% (combined house edge & player deviation from basic strategy) and is playing through his "drop" 4.34 times to get a casino win percent of 12.44%. Which would be an average of about $17K per day being played on a $3.9K drop.

The exact ratio is somewhere around 3%. Since there is no house average near 3% in blackjack, we can assume that player error is at least 1% of the take, and probably higher.

The play's the thing
Just as important as the "drop" as it is the amount of replay that matters. Last February for Chinese New Year's the baccarat tables had a 17.04% win percentage as Chinese players put in marathon sessions at the tables replaying their winnings. In June the win percent in baccarat dropped to 3.51% as the summer players are not nearly as avid.

A Mid level player
An average of one single green chip player playing 24 hours a day at 80 hands/hour would $48K of play (not drop) per day. Even if he was playing a game with zero house average and had 1% average player error, that would be the same $480 per table day that downtown is now earning. Of course if you had an average of two such players then you would double the player drop and even exceed the pre-recession levels.

The challenge
Could you come up with a game that would protect the house against card counters, and still attract an average of two players an hour playing green chips? Probably the more practical to try and come up with incentives to make them play longer rather than attract hundreds of players (i.e. 12 players per day that would be willing to play 4 hour shifts with green chips). Even if you have a zero house average (or close to one), you could probably count on close to 1% in player error.

General comment: I assume that there is presently a range of players regarding their playing skills. I assume that Downtown as less frilly and less touristy than The Strip gets a fair measure of marathon players, be they professional or simply retirees going through their checks. So my first step would not be to create incentives but to analyze current play to see if this dreaded threat of card counters is overblown or not.

Attract players? Comp rates attracts players. I'd crank up the rewards bestowed on individuals identified as already meeting the Green Chips for Four Hours mark. No rule changes, no house edge worries. Just individualized rewards.

Quote: pacomartin

The challenge
Could you come up with a game that would protect the house against card counters, and still attract an average of two players an hour playing green chips? Probably the more practical to try and come up with incentives to make them play longer rather than attract hundreds of players (i.e. 12 players per day that would be willing to play 4 hour shifts with green chips). Even if you have a zero house average (or close to one), you could probably count on close to 1% in player error.

Yes. Simple time-warp any casino blackjack game from 1975 into the present. Hand-held, single deck, H17 or S17, double on any two, and (GASP!) 3:2 payout on blackjack.

The game would be very popular, and could be easily proofed against counters by simply imposing a $100 table maximum, which 99% of players never exceed anyway. A counter could perhaps whomp the game for $20/hr, but so what? In the meantime, you'd be making 1%-5% from the ploppies. It worked for thirty+ years, not so long ago. The key is that you could show 3/4 of the doofi a basic strategy chart and they'd STILL stand on hard 16 against a 7, because they "have a feeling". (And if the dealer busts ONCE when they do that, they'll mentally pat themselves on the back for being savvy, so they'll repeat that particular blunder until they die or go broke.)

What makes a casino profitable, and what just about all casino management seems to have forgotten, is that most casino profit is made via player stupidity, NOT via the inherent house edge. Therefore, tweaking the rules to gain hundredths of a percent is taking the wrong approach. What is much more worthwhile is attracting optimally dumb clientele.

Quote: mkl654321

The game would be very popular, and could be easily proofed against counters by simply imposing a $100 table minimum, which 99% of players never exceed anyway.

I assume you mean maximum.

It's very simple answer. Instead of "backing off" card counters, you put up a sign that people will be given an ovation and a comp if they are ahead $1K for the night, and an invitation to return the next day.

But it would take a leap of faith. If the tables are currently only making $20/ hour ($485/day) then you would have to hope that the increased bad players would offset the card counters who made $1K and were applauded out of the room.

As I've said before the drop in the strip from $3m a day to $2m a day from blackjack is far worse than the decrease in the other games or slots. Either some very imaginative "new thinking" or some "old thinking" might be able to have a more profitable niche.

Once again, I am not talking about changing all of Vegas, just building a profitable niche.

Quote: pacomartin

As I've said before the drop in the strip from $3m a day to $2m a day from blackjack is far worse than the decrease in the other games or slots. Either some very imaginative "new thinking" or some "old thinking" might be able to have a more profitable niche.

Once again, I am not talking about changing all of Vegas, just building a profitable niche.

Yes, I meant "maximum". Corrected.

I have always thought that the casinos' paranoia about counters was irrational. Not one in a thousand individuals can count and play with enough accuracy to win. It's been proved--the first time being when "Beat the Dealer" was published--that the influx of people who THINK they can beat a blackjack game produces profits that dwarf the losses to those few players who actually CAN beat the game.

At 60 hands/hour and $100 max bet a skilled card counter would be making more like $30-50/hr, which might exceed the casinos' comfort zone. The table might show a net loss if everyone else was betting $5-10, even if they were playing like tourists. Still, I doubt that there would be that many actual skilled counters flocking to such a game, and as I said above, the attraction that the game would have for those who only think they can beat the game could very easily offset that.

Of course, when the ploppies fill up the 6:5 games, that seems to prove that there's no need to offer decent games. The decrease in drop, though, could be a function of people getting sheared at higher than the optimal rate--combine 6:5 with bad play and you get a bleed rate of 5% or more, which like higher taxes or retail prices, actually decreases revenue over the long haul. The casinos need to get back to shearing the sheep instead of slaughtering them.

Quote: mkl654321

Of course, when the ploppies fill up the 6:5 games, that seems to prove that there's no need to offer decent games. The decrease in drop, though, could be a function of people getting sheared at higher than the optimal rate--combine 6:5 with bad play and you get a bleed rate of 5% or more, which like higher taxes or retail prices, actually decreases revenue over the long haul. The casinos need to get back to shearing the sheep instead of slaughtering them.

I vote for the higher taxes analogy. Even at higher house edge, the total take is vastly reduced, even compared to the average reduction overall because of the recession.

My slightly alternative theory is that craps players are more hardcore, and they are reducing their game play by less than slots.

I don't know how to account for roulette, unless it is the increased alcohol sales in Vegas. Drunk people love roulette, because it is as hard as playing Candyland.

Could part of the solution be try and reduce the total costs of providing a BJ game? As well as adding incentives.
I could play for hours at BJ in Colorado when the min/max was $5 and the rules for comps at casino's were varied
asinine. At the Isle they had a rule that comps for meals had to be used the same day. At that time the casino's were


closed 2am-8am. You needed 4 hours at two spots to get breakfast. The buffet stopped serving breakfast at 11
8 hours of play got you a lunch. Lunch was over at 3:30 PM. Meanwhile across the street at the Riviera you sat
down at the $3 table and after 1 to 2 hours ask for a dinner comp and get it. Meanwhile back at the Isle a weekday
they often had hourly drawing for slot players. The player got $500. Only stipulation was you had to be active
2 minutes before the hour. So 5 minutes before that guys would leave the tables to play the machine next to their
wives or girlfriends. With anywhere from 50-100 slot players it had a more positive EV than BJ. It took months for
games manager to convince the powers that are to make the drawing once a hour randomly versus exactly on the
hour.
Even when I carded in and played over 14 hours at $25 minimum BJ table while wife played less than 12 hours of
penny slots, mostly at 30 cents a shot, she got coupons of $30 cash times and 3 comp rooms next month . I know
the Isle is hurting as their 50+ Club Sunday thru Thur only required a player to earn 5 points to get a dinner
buffet for you and a guest. But I thought my play was worth more than a $3 coupon and half-price buffet.
While we are at it can anybody explain how comps in BJ are rated on initial buy in ?

Proper comps are not are the only answer but Ameristar now has 33% of the Blackhawk market. Several years ago
they had a female casino manager who's name escapes me. But she had started out as a clerk in corporate in the
comp's department. I met her on her first visit to the dimly lit, usually empty 6 poker table room. Lighting was so
dim there was tape on the felt to indicate exact placement of the community cards for the eye in the sky.
My complaint to her was my only food comp was a $3 chit for the grill. The only thing under $3 was Chilicheese
Fries. Not exactly perfect finger food for cards, let alone driving down icy mountains roads to Denver.
That poker room now has 18 tables and Friday at 7 pm when I was there the electronic waiting list show over 40
players waiting for a seat. Ran into several friends who now save their comps for the Steak House.

Plus at some BJ pits they hold your player cards until you leave the tables Sure feels good after deciding you have
lost enough and are ready to play slots to just stand there till somebody has time to bring you card back to the
table. This could be solved by having some way to electronically card in, but that would require an expenditure.
It appear BJ is to be allowed to die a slow and painful death. The King is dead, Long live the KING

Quote: buzzpaff

It appear BJ is to be allowed to die a slow and painful death. The King is dead, Long live the KING

Well it certainly is no longer King of the Games on the strip for the past year and a half. Baccarat and it's junior cousin , mini baccarat bring in over 40% of the table game revenue on the strip, and have now left blackjack clearly behind at 25%. But it still handily beats any other game.

But for Nevada outside of the strip (which is mostly slots), the table game business is still worth $542 million a year. Baccarat and mini-baccarat are a tiny 3.4%, and blackjack still rules at 47%.

I remember reading an article about the Cannery Casino in North Las Vegas running a game that had a small negative expected value. It may have been a short time. They simply were making money on player error, or they viewed the game as a promotion tool. Sometimes casinos offer bonuses that give the player an advantage if used correctly. There was one being tracked on this site at Terrible's Casino.

Perhaps the funeral is premature. But even the Wiz remarked about the graying of BJ. Under the heading of perception is reality, on Poker after Dark Howard Lederman was talking about BJ in Europe. He refused to play because he would lose both bets after splitting to a dealer BJ. Kept saying he refused to play an unfair game. That rules cost 0.11%. Dealer hitting soft 17 costs twice that. Still talking about a game that has house edge of about 00.6%.
And attracting new players is becoming very difficult due to High table minimums. If I give my son-in-law $40 he can play penny slots for an hour or so. He can buy into a $1-3 Poker game and play that long easily or even longer in a poker tournament.
Paco is the math wiz. Wonder what the expected average player survival is on a 8 deck $10 tabl with $40. Let alone a $10 6-5 game.
One thing all carnival table games have is various payouts. and jackpots. BJ has only one hand that pays more than even money. I can remember in late 50's my dad getting a speeding ticket enroute to Bowie Race Track. Was not so mad at the ticket as missing the Daily Double. The only exotic bet back then. Now the great majority of the handle is exactas quinnelas trifectas etc.
Betters used to moan the takeout was too high on flat bets at 14%. Now exotics are at 24-28 percent.

Quote: buzzpaff

Perhaps the funeral is premature. But even the Wiz remarked about the graying of BJ.

But it looks the glow is fading off from baccarat. It is not surprising since a lot of the earnings were based on the Venetian flying in the Asian gambler to Vegas where the taxes are lower. Now they have Singapore Marina which is within a few thousand miles of all of the Asian cities.

Last February 2010 baccarat earned a record breaking $205 million on the strip for Chinese New Year's.
In October 2010 baccarat reached a record break $100 million average for the previous 12 months.

NGC should release the Feb 2011 numbers in a two weeks.
I predict :
(1) Baccarat will be good, but nowhere near last year's number
(2) The statewide yearly running average (i.e. 12 months through latest month) may set a new 40 month low
(3) The Vegas strip won't set a new low, but the 4th month of negative percentage year over year will cause some concern

Without the business fleet of the Venetian Vegas flying in Asian gamblers, there should be new lamenting that the domestic blackjack players have been lost.

" Without the business fleet of the Venetian Vegas flying in Asian gamblers, there should be new lamenting that the domestic blackjack players have been lost. "


The focus appears to be on replacing "classic" blackjack with another form or using side bets to increase
revenues. Switch introduced 2 new blackjack games in Vegas while putting 14 Switch tables in Colorado. The list of side bets on
the Wiz's other site gets longer and longer. No attempts appear to be made to cut costs, just raise the inherent house edge.
In 1991 I was on a count team in a small casino. Hard drop consisted of emptying drop buckets into a machine that counted the coins before wrapping them. We had no change girl so all the wrapped coins went into the cashier cage. Now slots only require soft
count, the changes girls are gone, and so are the lines with people wanting to trade thier "buckets " of coins for tokens for folding money.
Ticket systems allow quicker play as well as letting a machine cash a player out. If you see a BJ player in line at the player's club it is to cash out the handful of chips he left the table with after coloring up. The current method of replenishing the dealer's chips at BJ is an unfunny joke. Don't you just love it when a dealers fiddles with thew chips because the boss is gonna take inventory. Some female dealers want everything to be so neat. After a chat and counting a boss a helper go away. But return 15 minutes later, tell all to pull back their bets, and go about counting out all, assuming a sleepy security guard has given them the right stacks. ( Happened twice in one day to me ) Then finally you can play BY again. Wonder how many hands are missed in a casino due to this ??
I know gaming requires a systematic refill and paperwork and signatures but the current method only
reminds me of Red Skelton's coin changer in " The Good Humor Man " There has o be a better way !

As for incentives, slots regularly off 2x points or 5X points. Whereas all I ever see for BJ is some early weekday hours
7-7-7 for 21 pays 2 to 1. And you will have to ignore basic strategy against 2 thru 7 to go for the third seven versus
splitting. WOW !!! what an incentive

It seems to me that those Shufflemaster Blackjack machines could be programmed to have the option at playing full pay.

Right now, I think they deal 2/3 way through 6 decks and they have some minor limitations (no surrender, split to four ways, there may be doubling restrictions, etc), but they pay 3:2. In exchange for playing through $1000 as remembered by the loyalty card, all play after that point is with single deck, etc.

David Lopez, the said chief operating officer for the company commented on the issue. “The transition from electronic to a live market has been a very positive one for ShuffleMaster. The addition of live tables in these two markets has been notable accretive to our earnings, even as some e-Table seats have come out of the market,” he said.

ShuffleMaster has plans of expanding gaming operations into Mexico and Latin America, where the company will market its electronic tables.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, September 15th, 2010 at 5:37 pm

I don't understand that quote, as I don't understand the context. I know that Shufflemaster sells equipment that functions as stand alone devices, and they also sell things to make live gaming with real dealers more efficient.

Quote: pacomartin

[

The challenge
Could you come up with a game that would protect the house against card counters, and still attract an average of two players an hour playing green chips? Probably the more practical to try and come up with incentives to make them play longer rather than attract hundreds of players (i.e. 12 players per day that would be willing to play 4 hour shifts with green chips). Even if you have a zero house average (or close to one), you could probably count on close to 1% in player error.

I will accept that challenge conditionally. I am about 30 days away from being patent pending on a BJ game. I believe I have solved how to do some things never done before. Having said that, those facts do not insure that players will want to play the game. When I feel I am protected I will post the game all it's rules here. Actually the rules are those known by all BJ players today.
I believe I can offer jackpots of $100 and $10,000 on a $5 minimum BJ tables, fully protected from counters. I believe 2 players can bet the same amount on a hand and once will face a house edge of 00.6% and the other 01.2%. Same rules for both players. And this is a SD game with liberal rules not seen for decades in a casino. Off course this is fueled by BJ playing even money. But for a smart player the house edge is only 00.6 %.
All I ask in return is your honest opinion of the game attracting players. Hopefully some of the Math experts here will also accept the challenge and prove me wrong. I also believe I can pay the $10,000 jackpot without any IRS withholding !
Just looking for constructive criticism. Who is ready for a real challenge ??????

"Come, Watson, come! The game is afoot. Not a word! Into your clothes and come!"

Anyone up to a challenge ??

no one ?

Quote: buzzpaff

Anyone up to a challenge ??

You said you would post the details of your game when you are sufficiently protected. That seems reasonable and I await your post. Then you ask for opinions, but this presumably can only happen after you post the details.

So I am uncertain as to what you are "challenging" in the mean time? I took your post as a reply to the original challenge???

Let's put this to sleep, hopefully for less than 30 days. Thanks in advance