How much longer do counters realistically have?
That's a super simple AI system to develop and run on surveillance footage. Does that already exist? I only vulture slots so I'm not up to par on the BJ world. I would guess systems like this would be cheap enough for all casinos to run within a year or two.
On the flip side, AI agents can be run on top of a players hidden camera footage and signal to the player the perfect play and the player could get drunk out of their mind without counting. Modern day version of the Ken Uston computers. Hidden camera embedded in a button on your shirt. Smart phone in your pocket running AI agent to count. Signal via smart watch haptics (vibrations).
My prediction is AI running on top of surveillance will make counting for any length of time extremely difficult in the future, what say you?
Quote: BTLWIIt's pretty easy for an AI agent using surveillance footage to observe the cards and keep a perfect count. Also easy for an AI agent to observe blackjack player betting patterns and learn what is considered average player betting behavior. Also easy for an AI agent to combine count and betting patterns over time to identify deviations from normal (possible counters).
That's a super simple AI system to develop and run on surveillance footage. Does that already exist? I only vulture slots so I'm not up to par on the BJ world. I would guess systems like this would be cheap enough for all casinos to run within a year or two.
On the flip side, AI agents can be run on top of a players hidden camera footage and signal to the player the perfect play and the player could get drunk out of their mind without counting. Modern day version of the Ken Uston computers. Hidden camera embedded in a button on your shirt. Smart phone in your pocket running AI agent to count. Signal via smart watch haptics (vibrations).
My prediction is AI running on top of surveillance will make counting for any length of time extremely difficult in the future, what say you?
link to original post
A few misconceptions here:
1. You can detect card counting with statistical analysis. The tech has existed for years. It is nothing to do with AI.
2. In the modern game humans do not significantly under-perform computer-perfect play.
There is this persistent math undergraduate fantasy about computer-perfect play being able to destroy casinos. Outside of deeply dealt single-deck games it is just not true. You might at best get a tenth of a per cent using a computer in a modern game shoe game. So you might win 0.6% instead of 0.5%. It is not worth it.
The modern excitement around AI is to do with Large Language Models, these are completely useless as a casino application for multiple reasons. They can't do math currently.
I think it's just a matter of time until they bring this into to the brick and mortar casinos. 5 - 10 years at most.
Quote: gooseThey don't need AI for this. Online casinos are already doing it. They have a stipulation on their games like baccarat where they can turn the side bets off at their discretion. I was observing some online baccarat and noticed the bets would appear to be turned off at random points for the shoe - never at a consistent # hands lets say. So I started counting the side bets, turns out they disable the side bets the second the count is positive ev.
I think it's just a matter of time until they bring this into to the brick and mortar casinos. 5 - 10 years at most.
link to original post
The thing is you could have done this in the eighties. There are other reasons why they are not implementing it.
The tech is only so useful. You have to get a reasonable sized data sample. If the player uses cover and plays for short sessions they won't show up as an ap.
Why wouldn't casinos use Ai? Just another tool. If I were them, I would be worried about it, at least until I see it is actually useless. If it is useless? A human would be double-checking.. If your opponent has a weapon, you probably need it also.
I'm out of my depth though, as I don't know enough about this.
neural net to humans 'Your thoughts are not my thoughts"
Quote: Archvaldor1
1. You can detect card counting with statistical analysis. The tech has existed for years. It is nothing to do with AI.
Thank you, I was going to go on a rant how people use buzzwords like "AI" without any clue what they are. You summed it up much better as this doesn't require any AI at all.
Quote: DRichQuote: Archvaldor1
1. You can detect card counting with statistical analysis. The tech has existed for years. It is nothing to do with AI.
Thank you, I was going to go on a rant how people use buzzwords like "AI" without any clue what they are. You summed it up much better as this doesn't require any AI at all.
link to original post
I don't understand just what AI is, but I comprehend that the leading AI ETFs are running amok. Up twenty percent for the year while paying out over thirty percent a year in returns. As we are in the infancy of true A.I., I suspect those type of funds have a tremendous upside.
Quote: billryan
I don't understand just what AI is, but I comprehend that the leading AI ETFs are running amok. Up twenty percent for the year while paying out over thirty percent a year in returns. As we are in the infancy of true A.I., I suspect those type of funds have a tremendous upside.
I would be very interested in how they define AI too. Quants have been beating the market for years with just good algorithms before anyone used the term AI.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/030516/jim-simons-success-story-net-worth-education-top-quotes.asp#:~:text=Jim%20Simons%20is%20a%20renowned,Technologies%20and%20its%20Medallion%20Fund.
Quote: billryanI don't understand just what AI is, but I comprehend that the leading AI ETFs are running amok. Up twenty percent for the year while paying out over thirty percent a year in returns. As we are in the infancy of true A.I., I suspect those type of funds have a tremendous upside.
link to original post
I've owned Vanguard's etf VGT which focuses on AI tech for many years - see link
it's up about 30% for the year
in 2023 it gained an astonishing 52.65%
and lost much more that the S&P 500 did in 2022 - a big down year
but it's only beating Vanguard's VFIAX which tracks the S&P 500 (which I've also owned for many years) by about 3% ytd
and it's likely if there is a big downturn that high flying tech will lose more
it's very tough to beat the S&P 500 - very few mutual funds do - I think only about 11% - and the ones that beat it last year might lose to it next year
https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/11/21/artificial-general-intelligence-is-coming-1-unstop/#:~:text=The%20Vanguard%20Information%20Technology%20ETF%20(VGT%200.09%25)%20provides%20investors,of%20the%20portfolio%20at%20present.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VGT/performance/
Quote: billryanQuote: DRichQuote: Archvaldor1
1. You can detect card counting with statistical analysis. The tech has existed for years. It is nothing to do with AI.
Thank you, I was going to go on a rant how people use buzzwords like "AI" without any clue what they are. You summed it up much better as this doesn't require any AI at all.
link to original post
I don't understand just what AI is, but I comprehend that the leading AI ETFs are running amok. Up twenty percent for the year while paying out over thirty percent a year in returns. As we are in the infancy of true A.I., I suspect those type of funds have a tremendous upside.
link to original post
AI is a broad term referring to learning computers.
I am using AI video at the moment which means I can create videos of things that don't actually exist. Boats, people etc
Ask the AI to give you an image of a sailboat and it will examine millions of photos of sailboat on the net, understand what a sailboat looks like and give it to you. Usually multiple versions at once for you to pick from.
Feed it your own images of sailboats, even just sketches of futuristic sailboats and it will learn and understand what you want.
They also tend to get confused a lot and not give you what u want. They are learning ahem.
There are AI being used for medicine, art, mechanics, you name it.
But it is a creative (generative is the word) computer so you shouldn't be using it as a research tool. It can find false info and learn from that as well. Which is how a few people have been caught in scandal where the AI gave it false answers.
Quote: darkozWhich is how a few people have been caught in scandal where the AI gave it false answers.
Ai never gives incorrect information, it only returns exactly what the programmer programmed it to do. Bad programmers equal bad code which results in bad answers (but not incorrect as a computer can only do what it is told to do).
If I write a computer program that outputs 1+1=3, the computer gave the correct output given a potentially flawed input.
Quote: DRichQuote: darkozWhich is how a few people have been caught in scandal where the AI gave it false answers.
Ai never gives incorrect information, it only returns exactly what the programmer programmed it to do. Bad programmers equal bad code which results in bad answers (but not incorrect as a computer can only do what it is told to do).
If I write a computer program that outputs 1+1=3, the computer gave the correct output given a potentially flawed input.
link to original post
That's not the way AI works.
It's a learning program. It does work only on what it's programmed to learn but it learns things not programmed.
If it was just a program that did what it was told then nobody would care about defining AI as a such a game changer.
Nobody is that interested in it. One bad slip-and-fall, one large food poisoning incident, one beating from security or one internal sex harassment case per year can cost the casino more than all the counters who grace their tables that year together. In fact just a backoff of a counter is not free, as far as risk is concerned, and there's a nonzero chance that things are going to go bad during that backoff or trespass right on that floor and it's going to cost the store a lot more than if they just let him spread. So a smart businessman would severely limit that amount of that they get involved with. Unfortunately they don't hire many smart businessmen in casinos.
Quote: darkoz
That's not the way AI works.
It's a learning program. It does work only on what it's programmed to learn but it learns things not programmed.
If it was just a program that did what it was told then nobody would care about defining AI as a such a game changer.
First, do you really think you understand computers better than I do? I have been programming computers for the last 45 years, of which 40 years of it I have been paid to do it.
Every computer program whether you call it an algorithm or AI only does exactly what it is told to do. On a side note to that, on a slot machine the software can never malfunction so keep that in mind if they try to claim a slot malfunction and not pay you.
Quote: DRichQuote: darkoz
That's not the way AI works.
It's a learning program. It does work only on what it's programmed to learn but it learns things not programmed.
If it was just a program that did what it was told then nobody would care about defining AI as a such a game changer.
First, do you really think you understand computers better than I do? I have been programming computers for the last 45 years, of which 40 years of it I have been paid to do it.
Every computer program whether you call it an algorithm or AI only does exactly what it is told to do. On a side note to that, on a slot machine the software can never malfunction so keep that in mind if they try to claim a slot malfunction and not pay you.
link to original post
Since you clearly didn't program any AI programs for the last 45 years and since you just described something that isn't correct about AI, the answer is yes I do.
Question? Have you ANY experience coding an AI? Not a regular computer program. An actual AI?
Have you used or even know what a Flux Lora is?
I suspect you have not.
Quote: darkozQuote: DRichQuote: darkoz
That's not the way AI works.
It's a learning program. It does work only on what it's programmed to learn but it learns things not programmed.
If it was just a program that did what it was told then nobody would care about defining AI as a such a game changer.
First, do you really think you understand computers better than I do? I have been programming computers for the last 45 years, of which 40 years of it I have been paid to do it.
Every computer program whether you call it an algorithm or AI only does exactly what it is told to do. On a side note to that, on a slot machine the software can never malfunction so keep that in mind if they try to claim a slot malfunction and not pay you.
link to original post
Since you clearly didn't program any AI programs for the last 45 years and since you just described something that isn't correct about AI, the answer is yes I do.
Question? Have you ANY experience coding an AI? Not a regular computer program. An actual AI?
I suspect you have not.
link to original post
AI is just a computer program and I have done things that could be described as AI since learning the computer programming languages of PROLOG and LISP in the 1980's.
I can't even imagine why you are arguing about something in which you only know the buzzwords.
Quote: DRichQuote: darkozQuote: DRichQuote: darkoz
That's not the way AI works.
It's a learning program. It does work only on what it's programmed to learn but it learns things not programmed.
If it was just a program that did what it was told then nobody would care about defining AI as a such a game changer.
First, do you really think you understand computers better than I do? I have been programming computers for the last 45 years, of which 40 years of it I have been paid to do it.
Every computer program whether you call it an algorithm or AI only does exactly what it is told to do. On a side note to that, on a slot machine the software can never malfunction so keep that in mind if they try to claim a slot malfunction and not pay you.
link to original post
Since you clearly didn't program any AI programs for the last 45 years and since you just described something that isn't correct about AI, the answer is yes I do.
Question? Have you ANY experience coding an AI? Not a regular computer program. An actual AI?
I suspect you have not.
link to original post
AI is just a computer program and I have done things that could be described as AI since learning the computer programming languages of PROLOG and LISP in the 1980's.
I can't even imagine why you are arguing about something in which you only know the buzzwords.
link to original post
"Things that could be described as AI" answers my question. You haven't worked with modern AI, have no idea how it works but because you are an expert in outdated computer systems you now believe y know everything about the new ones.
I suggest you do actual research on the subject.
I work with AI every single day. Not part of my AP. I am working on a major AI project that will probably take about 18 months to complete. So already I have more experience than you on the subject.
Sorry that's just the way it is.
Here let me help educate you on the subject.
Quote: darkoz
I suggest you do actual research on the subject.
I work with AI every single day. Not part of my AP. I am working on a major AI project that will probably take about 18 months to complete. So already I have more experience than you on the subject.
Sorry that's just the way it is.
You say that I don't know modern AI, yet you don't even know what AI is. Please show me the millions of lines of computer code you have written so far for your project. Wait, what? You haven't written any code you are just using someone else's computer program and you don't even know how it works?
By the way, PROLOG was considered by some to be the first AI programming language.
"Prolog is a logic programming language that has its origins in artificial intelligence, automated theorem proving and computational linguistics"
If you want to continue this, we can also discuss movie making because I probably know more about that than you do about this subject.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: billryanI don't understand just what AI is, but I comprehend that the leading AI ETFs are running amok. Up twenty percent for the year while paying out over thirty percent a year in returns. As we are in the infancy of true A.I., I suspect those type of funds have a tremendous upside.
link to original post
I've owned Vanguard's etf VGT which focuses on AI tech for many years - see link
it's up about 30% for the year
in 2023 it gained an astonishing 52.65%
and lost much more that the S&P 500 did in 2022 - a big down year
but it's only beating Vanguard's VFIAX which tracks the S&P 500 (which I've also owned for many years) by about 3% ytd
and it's likely if there is a big downturn that high flying tech will lose more
it's very tough to beat the S&P 500 - very few mutual funds do - I think only about 11% - and the ones that beat it last year might lose to it next year
https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/11/21/artificial-general-intelligence-is-coming-1-unstop/#:~:text=The%20Vanguard%20Information%20Technology%20ETF%20(VGT%200.09%25)%20provides%20investors,of%20the%20portfolio%20at%20present.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VGT/performance/
link to original post
You keep bringing up that statistic. I'm not sure why. The S&P will outperform my stocks this year, but I'll pull out more money than if i'd invested in it and just sold stock
Quote: DRichQuote: darkoz
I suggest you do actual research on the subject.
I work with AI every single day. Not part of my AP. I am working on a major AI project that will probably take about 18 months to complete. So already I have more experience than you on the subject.
Sorry that's just the way it is.
You say that I don't know modern AI, yet you don't even know what AI is. Please show me the millions of lines of computer code you have written so far for your project. Wait, what? You haven't written any code you are just using someone else's computer program and you don't even know how it works?
By the way, PROLOG was considered by some to be the first AI programming language.
"Prolog is a logic programming language that has its origins in artificial intelligence, automated theorem proving and computational linguistics"
link to original post
So you have written zero code for modern AI. You wrote something for some outdated mode of AI and now think you know it all. Yet you describe things completely wrong about modern AI
Got it
Quote: darkoz
So you have written zero code for modern AI. You wrote something for some outdated mode of AI and now think you know it all. Yet you describe things completely wrong about modern AI
Got it
I feel very sad for you, you don't know what you are talking about.
I will end it here and just say that I guess we disagree.
Quote: DRichQuote: darkoz
So you have written zero code for modern AI. You wrote something for some outdated mode of AI and now think you know it all. Yet you describe things completely wrong about modern AI
Got it
I feel very sad for you, you don't know what you are talking about.
I will end it here and just say that I guess we disagree.
link to original post
And I feel very sad for you too.
For the same reasons.
He was twenty-six. RIP
Quote: billryanSucir Balaji, the engineer who trained the systems behind ChatGPT has died at his own hands. His first project at OPenAl was WebGPT, which formed the basis for ChatGPT. Mr. Balaji claimed the final product violated multiple copywriting principles.
He was twenty-six. RIP
link to original post
If I am not mistaken he committed suicide. I wonder if it was from reading DarkOz's posts about AI.
Quote: DRichQuote: billryanSucir Balaji, the engineer who trained the systems behind ChatGPT has died at his own hands. His first project at OPenAl was WebGPT, which formed the basis for ChatGPT. Mr. Balaji claimed the final product violated multiple copywriting principles.
He was twenty-six. RIP
link to original post
If I am not mistaken he committed suicide. I wonder if it was from reading DarkOz's posts about AI.
link to original post
It's probably because the AI took in new data and created problems not created by the original programmer and when he realized he was the original programmer and wasn't responsible for what misinformation the AI learned he decided to kill himself after speaking to old timers who thought they knew better.
Quote: DRichQuote: darkoz
So you have written zero code for modern AI. You wrote something for some outdated mode of AI and now think you know it all. Yet you describe things completely wrong about modern AI
Got it
I feel very sad for you, you don't know what you are talking about.
I will end it here and just say that I guess we disagree.
link to original post
Most D.Oz debates end like this followed by a D.Oz post along the lines of “so you’re admitting I’m right.”
Of course a wise man admits that he doesn’t know everything.
Quote: MDawgQuote: DRichQuote: darkoz
So you have written zero code for modern AI. You wrote something for some outdated mode of AI and now think you know it all. Yet you describe things completely wrong about modern AI
Got it
I feel very sad for you, you don't know what you are talking about.
I will end it here and just say that I guess we disagree.
link to original post
Most D.Oz debates end like this followed by a D.Oz post along the lines of “so you’re admitting I’m right.”
Of course a wise man admits that he doesn’t know everything.
link to original post
I don't know everything.
But what I do know I know and I am not going to say I don't for the sake of it.
The actually sad part is this is how I get away with being such a successful AP. The casinos are dead certain I don't know a thing about how they operate and I know more than they do
I was just surrounded this past weekend at a casino where the head security guy told me how I managed to get my Freeplay on the cards. And got it all wrong. And smirked when I told him he got it wrong
So many people with knowledge get things wrong fully believing they got it right that it just becomes really easy to walk all over them.
Quote: Archvaldor1Quote: gooseThey don't need AI for this. Online casinos are already doing it. They have a stipulation on their games like baccarat where they can turn the side bets off at their discretion. I was observing some online baccarat and noticed the bets would appear to be turned off at random points for the shoe - never at a consistent # hands lets say. So I started counting the side bets, turns out they disable the side bets the second the count is positive ev.
I think it's just a matter of time until they bring this into to the brick and mortar casinos. 5 - 10 years at most.
link to original post
The thing is you could have done this in the eighties. There are other reasons why they are not implementing it.
The tech is only so useful. You have to get a reasonable sized data sample. If the player uses cover and plays for short sessions they won't show up as an ap.
link to original post
Goose is not suggesting a program to spot counters. He’s suggesting a program that just spots when the side bets are +EV and turns them off. Then the casino doesn’t care about counters.
Quote: billryanQuote: DRichQuote: Archvaldor1
1. You can detect card counting with statistical analysis. The tech has existed for years. It is nothing to do with AI.
Thank you, I was going to go on a rant how people use buzzwords like "AI" without any clue what they are. You summed it up much better as this doesn't require any AI at all.
link to original post
I don't understand just what AI is, but I comprehend that the leading AI ETFs are running amok. Up twenty percent for the year while paying out over thirty percent a year in returns. As we are in the infancy of true A.I., I suspect those type of funds have a tremendous upside.
link to original post
Er...maybe. From what I can tell those firms aren't talking. So we don't know what they are doing. Attempts to create computer-based trading systems had a long history of failure until quite recently. Historically adding complexity to a system just makes it worse-simple but accurate analysis of a relatively limited number of variables outperforms.
There are some alternative possibilities:
1. They are running scams and using AI to cover it up. This sort of thing has happened a lot in the past. Basically when someone gets curious about your outsize return you use a populist buzzword and suddenly everyone starts talking about AI's with super powers, and ignores the looming fraud elephant in the room.
2. They are using humans/simple computer algorithms and are using the "AI" buzzword to misdirect people.
3. They are using social arb trading imo a more replicable method with a proven record of success and calling it ai again as misdirection.
4. They got very lucky.
5. Some combination of the above.
I used to subscribe to the soft form of the random walk hypothesis. Since I actually started investing: well, I'm not even sure I'd call the market semi-efficient. My first major trade was in Tesla. I though "hm company reinvests in its own infrastrucre avoiding tax like amazon did". It has gone up a lot since. You don't need AI for that.
If you look back through the election thread you'll see I predicted the recent US election correctly. Again this wasn't brain science. I just noticed the pollsters overestimate vote share of centrist parties. There's nothing especially clever about that, it is obvious if you look at historical data. But the market didn't bother to do that. That alone would get you a significant edge over the market. I don't bet crypto but you could have made a fortune from that if you just knew how pollsters mess up.
Chris Cornell of "Dumb Money" made an absolute fortune out of this stuff. He's really persuasive. Example: Michelle Obama wears a new dress on TV. Cornell stated he worked out who made the dress and who is going to profit. It is very easy to see wall st guys are not going to do that.
The point here is that beating the market has very little to do with super intelligent AI. You just have to know something either other people don't know or more likely don't give a crap about.
This is all just my worthless opinion and bullshit anecdotal evidence, but here is something that is not: commercially available AI is not even remotely close to being capable of beating the market and has very publicly failed to do so in several recent studies. So any AI beating the market is propietary and using techniques we don't know about.
Quote: unJonQuote: Archvaldor1Quote: gooseThey don't need AI for this. Online casinos are already doing it. They have a stipulation on their games like baccarat where they can turn the side bets off at their discretion. I was observing some online baccarat and noticed the bets would appear to be turned off at random points for the shoe - never at a consistent # hands lets say. So I started counting the side bets, turns out they disable the side bets the second the count is positive ev.
I think it's just a matter of time until they bring this into to the brick and mortar casinos. 5 - 10 years at most.
link to original post
The thing is you could have done this in the eighties. There are other reasons why they are not implementing it.
The tech is only so useful. You have to get a reasonable sized data sample. If the player uses cover and plays for short sessions they won't show up as an ap.
link to original post
Goose is not suggesting a program to spot counters. He’s suggesting a program that just spots when the side bets are +EV and turns them off. Then the casino doesn’t care about counters.
link to original post
That is even more egregious than maximum aggregate payout caps.
Quote: unJonQuote: Archvaldor1Quote: gooseThey don't need AI for this. Online casinos are already doing it. They have a stipulation on their games like baccarat where they can turn the side bets off at their discretion. I was observing some online baccarat and noticed the bets would appear to be turned off at random points for the shoe - never at a consistent # hands lets say. So I started counting the side bets, turns out they disable the side bets the second the count is positive ev.
I think it's just a matter of time until they bring this into to the brick and mortar casinos. 5 - 10 years at most.
link to original post
The thing is you could have done this in the eighties. There are other reasons why they are not implementing it.
The tech is only so useful. You have to get a reasonable sized data sample. If the player uses cover and plays for short sessions they won't show up as an ap.
link to original post
Goose is not suggesting a program to spot counters. He’s suggesting a program that just spots when the side bets are +EV and turns them off. Then the casino doesn’t care about counters.
link to original post
They tried that with some software I think called I-play or something like that. It would identify when a deck was positive in blackjack and reshuffle.
There was a lawsuit that this caused the changing of the overall return of the game to change and essentially it was cheating for the casino to use an electronic device to rob players of positive EV situations inherent to the game.
You’ll never find more than a single mention on the internet
Quote: heatmapBloodhound from shuffle master
You’ll never find more than a single mention on the internet
link to original post
I believe it's usually referred to as "BJ Survey Voice".
Quote: DieterQuote: heatmapBloodhound from shuffle master
You’ll never find more than a single mention on the internet
link to original post
I believe it's usually referred to as "BJ Survey Voice".
link to original post
I don’t think bloodhound and BJ survey voice are the same thing. Not sure though. I have alot of experience with survey voice I have used it for hundreds of hours. It definitely had ways in which it could be fooled not sure if it’s been updated to correct those issues.
Quote: HunterhillQuote: DieterQuote: heatmapBloodhound from shuffle master
You’ll never find more than a single mention on the internet
link to original post
I believe it's usually referred to as "BJ Survey Voice".
link to original post
I don’t think bloodhound and BJ survey voice are the same thing. Not sure though. I have alot of experience with survey voice I have used it for hundreds of hours. It definitely had ways in which it could be fooled not sure if it’s been updated to correct those issues.
link to original post
I could be misunderstanding.
This is a screenshot from an article https://euroasiacasino.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Article-Blackjack-Counters_Call-the-Bloodhound1.pdf
Quote: darkozQuote: unJonQuote: Archvaldor1Quote: gooseThey don't need AI for this. Online casinos are already doing it. They have a stipulation on their games like baccarat where they can turn the side bets off at their discretion. I was observing some online baccarat and noticed the bets would appear to be turned off at random points for the shoe - never at a consistent # hands lets say. So I started counting the side bets, turns out they disable the side bets the second the count is positive ev.
I think it's just a matter of time until they bring this into to the brick and mortar casinos. 5 - 10 years at most.
link to original post
The thing is you could have done this in the eighties. There are other reasons why they are not implementing it.
The tech is only so useful. You have to get a reasonable sized data sample. If the player uses cover and plays for short sessions they won't show up as an ap.
link to original post
Goose is not suggesting a program to spot counters. He’s suggesting a program that just spots when the side bets are +EV and turns them off. Then the casino doesn’t care about counters.
link to original post
They tried that with some software I think called I-play or something like that. It would identify when a deck was positive in blackjack and reshuffle.
There was a lawsuit that this caused the changing of the overall return of the game to change and essentially it was cheating for the casino to use an electronic device to rob players of positive EV situations inherent to the game.
link to original post
You do realize that the casinos were able to change that wording of the law in both Vegas and PA in order to exclude themselves from the law. The wording was too broad. They added wording to the laws in each state that changed it from everyone including the casino to just players. The shufflers have the ability to store the deck information and they didn’t want the fact that the casinos already had the ability to do what they weren’t supposed to be doing to not be able to do it any more.
They wrote themselves into not having the ability to use (AI bluff card 6 game where AI bluffs you as the player)
Follow this thread ive made about it a long time ago... https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/poker/33851-dealer-bluff-six-card-poker/
i have a letter saved from the lawyers of shuffle master showing that shuffle master was able to sway the wording of the law because of their devices and the wording of the laws being too broad... which falls in line with the timeline of when the archived report i have at the end of this post came out.
i also have an archived report that shows the progression and why the laws were changed if anyone disbelieves me
https://web.archive.org/web/20190319091033/https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/10678382.pdf (download this because im telling you whoever does PR for casinos goes through my posts and deletes actual archived documents)
Quote: heatmapThis is kind of what I was talking about not being able to find a single mention. I should be more verbose but the information … seemingly for most casino “facts” always seem to have multiple “understandings” of each fact and most are all true either way it just causes confusion and I think that’s by design.
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Mentions a-plenty we've got.
Solid information, not so much.
I can't see Shufflemaster Scientific Gaming LnW dropping such an offering from their encyclopaedic portfolio, so maybe there are advertising materials someone can dig up.
Quote: Archvaldor1Quote: billryanQuote: DRichQuote: Archvaldor1
1. You can detect card counting with statistical analysis. The tech has existed for years. It is nothing to do with AI.
Thank you, I was going to go on a rant how people use buzzwords like "AI" without any clue what they are. You summed it up much better as this doesn't require any AI at all.
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I don't understand just what AI is, but I comprehend that the leading AI ETFs are running amok. Up twenty percent for the year while paying out over thirty percent a year in returns. As we are in the infancy of true A.I., I suspect those type of funds have a tremendous upside.
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Er...maybe. From what I can tell those firms aren't talking. So we don't know what they are doing. Attempts to create computer-based trading systems had a long history of failure until quite recently. Historically adding complexity to a system just makes it worse-simple but accurate analysis of a relatively limited number of variables outperforms.
There are some alternative possibilities:
1. They are running scams and using AI to cover it up. This sort of thing has happened a lot in the past. Basically when someone gets curious about your outsize return you use a populist buzzword and suddenly everyone starts talking about AI's with super powers, and ignores the looming fraud elephant in the room.
2. They are using humans/simple computer algorithms and are using the "AI" buzzword to misdirect people.
3. They are using social arb trading imo a more replicable method with a proven record of success and calling it ai again as misdirection.
4. They got very lucky.
5. Some combination of the above.
I used to subscribe to the soft form of the random walk hypothesis. Since I actually started investing: well, I'm not even sure I'd call the market semi-efficient. My first major trade was in Tesla. I though "hm company reinvests in its own infrastrucre avoiding tax like amazon did". It has gone up a lot since. You don't need AI for that.
If you look back through the election thread you'll see I predicted the recent US election correctly. Again this wasn't brain science. I just noticed the pollsters overestimate vote share of centrist parties. There's nothing especially clever about that, it is obvious if you look at historical data. But the market didn't bother to do that. That alone would get you a significant edge over the market. I don't bet crypto but you could have made a fortune from that if you just knew how pollsters mess up.
Chris Cornell of "Dumb Money" made an absolute fortune out of this stuff. He's really persuasive. Example: Michelle Obama wears a new dress on TV. Cornell stated he worked out who made the dress and who is going to profit. It is very easy to see wall st guys are not going to do that.
The point here is that beating the market has very little to do with super intelligent AI. You just have to know something either other people don't know or more likely don't give a crap about.
This is all just my worthless opinion and bullshit anecdotal evidence, but here is something that is not: commercially available AI is not even remotely close to being capable of beating the market and has very publicly failed to do so in several recent studies. So any AI beating the market is propietary and using techniques we don't know about.
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It doesn't matter what Ai can or can't do. All I'm concerned with is what the public thinks. In short, the public jumps on any stock or ETF they think is AI-driven. If Pepsi hinted that Ai created their next-generation sodas, people would both invest in the stock and create buzz about the product.
Long term investments require solid foundations. Short term investments you should go with rumours.
Quote: darkoz
I was just surrounded this past weekend at a casino where the head security guy told me how I managed to get my Freeplay on the cards. And got it all wrong. And smirked when I told him he got it wrong
Don't tell them they are wrong. Let them believe that they have it all figured out.
Quote: darkoz
They tried that with some software I think called I-play or something like that. It would identify when a deck was positive in blackjack and reshuffle.
There was a lawsuit that this caused the changing of the overall return of the game to change and essentially it was cheating for the casino to use an electronic device to rob players of positive EV situations inherent to the game.
I believe it was called Mindplay which was bought by Bally. It was only around for about four years because it was too expensive and had many technical problems that required constant servicing.
Quote: DRichQuote: darkoz
They tried that with some software I think called I-play or something like that. It would identify when a deck was positive in blackjack and reshuffle.
There was a lawsuit that this caused the changing of the overall return of the game to change and essentially it was cheating for the casino to use an electronic device to rob players of positive EV situations inherent to the game.
I believe it was called Mindplay which was bought by Bally. It was only around for about four years because it was too expensive and had many technical problems that required constant servicing.
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I thought Mindplay was a table based system that identified counters.
I didn't realize there was a preferential shuffle component.
Please tell me this isn't at a regulated online casino in the USA? I'm under the impression that if they are using a computer to change the odds that would be illegal in many jurisdictions.Quote: gooseThey don't need AI for this. Online casinos are already doing it. They have a stipulation on their games like baccarat where they can turn the side bets off at their discretion. I was observing some online baccarat and noticed the bets would appear to be turned off at random points for the shoe - never at a consistent # hands lets say. So I started counting the side bets, turns out they disable the side bets the second the count is positive ev.
I think it's just a matter of time until they bring this into to the brick and mortar casinos. 5 - 10 years at most.
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Quote: DRichQuote: darkoz
I was just surrounded this past weekend at a casino where the head security guy told me how I managed to get my Freeplay on the cards. And got it all wrong. And smirked when I told him he got it wrong
Don't tell them they are wrong. Let them believe that they have it all figured out.
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I certainly didn't tell them how I operate but they had a gaming officer with them and it was clear they believed I had a confederate inside the casino printing duplicate cards, . most likely changing pins and I was the accomplice who was gambling other unsuspecting players Freeplay for a split of the proceeds.
So I basically said they got it wrong and if they intend to arrest me for that they better have all the proof lined up or I sue for false arrest.
There was a ten minutes long standoff where they demanded ID for their investigation and I refused. I knew they didn't have anything because one, I don't do what they accused me of and two, they so would have arrested me already instead of just demanding ID.
I walked out of there without showing ID. They kept me just before what would probably be the false imprisonment time limit required for a lawsuit.
They trespassed me of course.
They named the cards I was using and I figured they would flag the thousands in vouchers in my pocket I had just made off the cards so I would be forced to go to the cashier and get arrested for trespassing at the very least but these guys are dumb rocks. Three days later I had one of my people go to the redemption machines and cash out all the money.
Quote: MDawgThe end doesn't come with a bang but a whimper.
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Definitely not my end, lol.
Already prepping test cards for other people to handle the operation.
Quote: billryan
It doesn't matter what Ai can or can't do. All I'm concerned with is what the public thinks. In short, the public jumps on any stock or ETF they think is AI-driven. If Pepsi hinted that Ai created their next-generation sodas, people would both invest in the stock and create buzz about the product.
Long term investments require solid foundations. Short term investments you should go with rumours.
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That doesn't really work. You are trying to predict the actions of people who don't know shit about something. Good luck with that. Other people will have faster data feeds than you, better sources of information, you can't just look at the news cycle and jump on something and expect to beat the vig. Everyone would be doing it if it were that easy.
