monodactyl
monodactyl
Joined: Jun 12, 2023
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August 17th, 2023 at 10:12:59 AM permalink
I'm not mathematically gifted, so I'm hoping someone can explain to me in simple terms a few things.

1. How is the house edge of a particular BJ ruleset calculated? Is it via simulation and reviewing the results? Or is there some deterministic way to calculate it?

Main question:

2. I follow a Paroli betting pattern purely to cap my loss speed at 1 unit per hand. (Double wins up to 2x, 4x, until finally 8x initial bet, any loss resets my back to 1x unit). This originally was for bankroll management reasons and I get excited with long streaks. Occasionally, I'm at a positive EV spot on my 8x bet, like a double-down or a good split. In this case, I'll be taking additional money from the stack above the 1 unit per hand rate to maximize this situation. There are times when I split and double the splits and have up to 48 units bet out (8-unit starting bet split to max 3 hands, then all doubled).

I'm wondering if this bet-size variability could have a similar effect to like when one is counting and putting more money on in situations in your favor even though the average equal-weight instance is negative EV. It FEELS like I'm getting to put big money in positive EV spots like doubles. I would only ever get 48 units out on a positive EV bet. My worst starting deal would be 8 units as a result of letting it ride, but there would be no doubles or splits in most of these scenarios.

By feeling, it seems like I can pile disproportionately large bets on good spots vs not. But I also have it hammered into me that there are no betting systems that can improve edge. Can someone explain what I'm missing?

I'm just getting curious because I've been I've recorded about 110 hours of sessions and I'm running pretty well. I initially chalked it up to good variance - but I'm getting to a 93 percentile outcome and I'm starting to wonder if I'm really that lucky. I'm up 300 units after about 6000 hands. At this point I really expected house edge to have really ground me down.

Edit. I tried enumerating all possible outcomes for a 2 hand game calculating the payouts and EVs for flat betting, flat betting with doubles, paroli flat bet, and paroli with doubles. paroli actually has the worst EV. I suppose it's because it's making my average bet much more than 2 units.
Last edited by: monodactyl on Aug 17, 2023
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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August 17th, 2023 at 12:11:37 PM permalink
A lot of your Paroli system comes down to streaks. I'll put up a chart of a sample session of mine where streaks are noted.
In this session 87% of the bets placed never won up to and including the 4th bet, and the dealer was the same. I don't know if pushes count in this chart, they probably do but I see no item for 0 wins.
Splits may not win you much more than regular plays, but this software never mentions how splits fare. Double downs and BJ's are where the money is made and normal hands are the biggest losers that a 6:5 BJ table has a much harder time counteracting. Surrenders lose money always, but I think non-surrenders would be worse.



I just played a 6 hand session with a $300 base bet and had some luck. My bets went from $300, then $600, then $1200 with a double down, then $2400 with a BJ, then $2400, then a $2400 loss.
The streaks chart shows I won 5 hands with a $9300 profit, but I lost the last hand and ended up only $6900 ahead for the sequence.


My 2nd try at this was $300 push then a win, $600 win, $1200 win, then come the $2400 bets. The 1st one was a split with a double down on each that was a win/loss on each so a push. The 2nd one was a split with a double down on one and they both lost, so I lost $7200 on that last hand.
The streaks chart doesn't add up.


I tried a full 400 hand session just now and I like it! Winning at max bet is what pulls you ahead.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/36376-chump-change-software-sessions/#post896428
*************************************************************************************************************************************
I tried another session where I just doubled the double down wins, but that only affected 2 or 3 hands and was inconsequential to the totally bad losing streak this game perpetrated on me! ONLY ONE WINNING 4 in a row to be had out of 172 hands and ONLY ONE MAX BET WON OUT OF 7! I keep saying these computer games build me up with a winning streak only to tear me down the next time and this was the very next session! I'm hardly winning 28.5% of my hands, that has to be a near record low on this game for me for a session!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/36376-chump-change-software-sessions/#post896436
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Aug 17, 2023
heatmap
heatmap
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
  • Threads: 236
  • Posts: 2044
August 17th, 2023 at 3:54:30 PM permalink
im pretty sure a spirit has taken over chump changes body this reply is on topic oddly... sorry chump lol
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4189
August 17th, 2023 at 4:41:02 PM permalink
Quote: monodactyl

I'm not mathematically gifted, so I'm hoping someone can explain to me in simple terms a few things.

1. How is the house edge of a particular BJ ruleset calculated? Is it via simulation and reviewing the results? Or is there some deterministic way to calculate it?

Main question:

2. I follow a Paroli betting pattern purely to cap my loss speed at 1 unit per hand. (Double wins up to 2x, 4x, until finally 8x initial bet, any loss resets my back to 1x unit). This originally was for bankroll management reasons and I get excited with long streaks. Occasionally, I'm at a positive EV spot on my 8x bet, like a double-down or a good split. In this case, I'll be taking additional money from the stack above the 1 unit per hand rate to maximize this situation. There are times when I split and double the splits and have up to 48 units bet out (8-unit starting bet split to max 3 hands, then all doubled).

I'm wondering if this bet-size variability could have a similar effect to like when one is counting and putting more money on in situations in your favor even though the average equal-weight instance is negative EV. It FEELS like I'm getting to put big money in positive EV spots like doubles. I would only ever get 48 units out on a positive EV bet. My worst starting deal would be 8 units as a result of letting it ride, but there would be no doubles or splits in most of these scenarios.

By feeling, it seems like I can pile disproportionately large bets on good spots vs not. But I also have it hammered into me that there are no betting systems that can improve edge. Can someone explain what I'm missing?

I'm just getting curious because I've been I've recorded about 110 hours of sessions and I'm running pretty well. I initially chalked it up to good variance - but I'm getting to a 93 percentile outcome and I'm starting to wonder if I'm really that lucky. I'm up 300 units after about 6000 hands. At this point I really expected house edge to have really ground me down.

Edit. I tried enumerating all possible outcomes for a 2 hand game calculating the payouts and EVs for flat betting, flat betting with doubles, paroli flat bet, and paroli with doubles. paroli actually has the worst EV. I suppose it's because it's making my average bet much more than 2 units.
link to original post



Very roughly speaking you lose more when low cards come out and then win more after those low cards are out. Conversely you win more when 10s and As come out and then lose more after they are out. So (again very roughly speaking) you are going to be more likely to have a big bet out during a +EV situation if you are increasing bets after losses not wins.
Last edited by: unJon on Aug 17, 2023
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
monodactyl
monodactyl
Joined: Jun 12, 2023
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August 17th, 2023 at 5:37:01 PM permalink
Oh. Itís actually 6 deck continuous shuffle machine.
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 14
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August 17th, 2023 at 5:42:09 PM permalink
Quote: monodactyl

Oh. Itís actually 6 deck continuous shuffle machine.
link to original post



Then it wonít matter either way except slightly depending on the dealer keeping cards in the discard tray.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

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