wizardofbuffalo
wizardofbuffalo
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July 6th, 2023 at 10:51:19 PM permalink
I understand that a 6-8 deck shoe rich of tens which you can estimate by the number of 10s+ out vs low cards seen can be beneficial.
I understand the reasoning. The odds of the player getting more tens and aces are higher so it makes sense to increase wagers when you expect more to be coming out. But that is true for the dealers cards as well. Lets assume the table is full and the player can only play one hand against the dealers. Not spread out and play up to 3. If you think more tens are coming out - maybe play 2 hands at half $ but the odds are technically the same. And alas - that is only with a shoe game.

Is there a benefit to even counting when your casino uses the automatic shuffler a. Besides they change up the tempo by switching out dealers every hour to burn a card anyways. Any thoughts before I go in to battle the corrupt seneca indians on their buffalo turf...
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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July 7th, 2023 at 5:07:42 AM permalink
Continuous shuffler machines will stunt the true count to no more than +2 and no less than -3. Automatic shuffler machines let the shoe play out and counts can go higher in either direction. I think a winning player will depend on playing out the shoe with the ASM.
Mental
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rawtuff
July 7th, 2023 at 6:43:41 AM permalink
Quote: wizardofbuffalo

I understand that a 6-8 deck shoe rich of tens which you can estimate by the number of 10s+ out vs low cards seen can be beneficial.
I understand the reasoning. The odds of the player getting more tens and aces are higher so it makes sense to increase wagers when you expect more to be coming out. But that is true for the dealers cards as well. Lets assume the table is full and the player can only play one hand against the dealers. Not spread out and play up to 3. If you think more tens are coming out - maybe play 2 hands at half $ but the odds are technically the same. And alas - that is only with a shoe game.

Is there a benefit to even counting when your casino uses the automatic shuffler a. Besides they change up the tempo by switching out dealers every hour to burn a card anyways. Any thoughts before I go in to battle the corrupt seneca indians on their buffalo turf...
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Imagine a deck where all the low cards were out, leaving only tens and aces. It is true that the dealer would get the same number of blackjacks as you as well as the same number of 2-card totals of 20. When you both get BJ or 20, you push. You will win with BJ vs 20 just as often as you will lose 20 vs BJ, but you gain a half bet the times you are the winner. When you are dealt A-A, you can split. The dealer with A-A has a soft 12 which cannot be split and will be hard-pressed to win against whichever hand you have.

Even though the dealer gets the same enrichment as you with respect to starting cards, the rules favor you in every way.
It does sucks to have EB infiltrate every thread with his grandiose claims.
wizardofbuffalo
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ChumpChange
July 7th, 2023 at 7:48:19 AM permalink
Good intel. The shufflers they use are continuous. At least for the (15/300 and 25/500 tables). I have to be at a 50/1000 to even get a shoe game. At Bflo Creek options for the player are very limited. I could just go up to the falls any time but its an extra hour commute for me each way. But up there the place is 3x as big so if I don't like the feel or players at one table, I can always shop around. But most of those tables are continuous shufflers anyways. And they have no plans of reopening the poker room that was shut down 'because of covid' and never reopened. That is ridiculous. The Seneca's are a joke basically just milking seniors of their losable fixed incomes at slots to keep the lights on - nothing more. Thanks...
wizardofbuffalo
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July 7th, 2023 at 7:59:46 AM permalink
That is a very good way to point it out to me. I see better now. Basically it is based on getting a blackjack at 3-2 vs a bunch of likely pushes and some possible losses to 20 and 21. The odds of a dealer getting a A-A or player getting it for that matter I believe to be roughly 1/60. So answer this for me - if you get to a really high count and think face cards are due out, would you take insurance against a dealer ace knowing they are more likely to have a 10 under with the increased probability? I know insurance is a bad bet but there is nothing wrong with even money to protect a 21 in the case that it could push...
wizardofbuffalo
wizardofbuffalo
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July 7th, 2023 at 8:03:42 AM permalink
Thanks. I got A-A once and split em like anyone should have. My cards on top were A-A. Needless to say splitting As doesn't always work against a 10. But sometimes 12s do win when they bust...
gordonm888
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wizardofbuffalorawtuff
July 7th, 2023 at 10:55:53 AM permalink
When the remaining shoe is Tens-rich, another player advantage originates from the ability of player to Stand with a stiff hand (12-16) when facing a dealer 2-6. Obviously, dealer must always hit hard 12-16 and thus the surplus of Tens in the shoe will punish the dealer and reward the player.

Also, the ability of player to split cards such as A-A, 8-8, 9-9 and 7-7 is worth a bit more when the shoe is rich in Tens; the hapless dealer must hit those hands until H17.

And the player ability to Double Down on Hard 10, 11 is worth more with a Tens-rich shoe.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
ChumpChange
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July 7th, 2023 at 11:48:57 AM permalink
I'd check on the Canadian side of the falls. Seems like ridiculous table limits on the US side. A $15 CAN table would be a $10 USD table. I don't know who I'm kidding if I expect to find a $15 CAN table anywhere. But maybe they have shoes instead of CSMs.
Back in the day, I would expect the US limits to be $3-$300 and $5-$500.
Limits near me be like $10/$15-$1,000 or $25-$2,000.
I've read before that Niagara Falls casinos are hyper-vigilant for card counting and their low table maxes are meant to identity higher limit players. Playing another game like craps or baccarat would be a way to stay out of their Blackjack trap.
wizardofbuffalo
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July 10th, 2023 at 11:40:45 PM permalink
Thanks. I got the boot for a misconduct 3 weeks ago where they overserved me and said I am not allowed on Seneca property for a month anyways. Its funny this occurred after I finished up a 4hr session at Spanish 21. The table paid out well. Two guys left up a couple of grand. I stayed too long but only blew $170. After about 8 mixed drinks and tipping the dealer and waitresses heavily so my entertainment was well paid for. They other players and the dealer were kind of coaching me how to play by the book. Hitting on 12 and 13s always was new to me but I liked the options with late doubling and player 21 getting paid right away without worrying about pushes. I got 3 7s but they weren't suited and the dealer didn't have one up.

Besides I'm not allowed on the Canadian side - two DWI's gets you a misconduct from visiting Canada to drink their beer...

So on the US side, at Buffalo Creek, the smallest tables are always 15/300. Ultimate Hold-em you only have to bet 10 but on the ante, blind, and trips makes it 30 anyways. I've never tried a bigger table than the 100/2K. But on July 7th when I got my miscoduct they didn't even have the 25/500 house money table open or a 50/1K. They only had like 5 blackjack options thatFriday afternoon. The options were 15/300 (house money or pair square) or 15/300 spanish21. So I tried 21 because I didn't want to jump right up to a 50/1K or 100/2K with my planned $200 small buy-in. Kinda ridiculous. Seneca Niagara is 3x as big and they have more available but I'm not allowed up there either. They would have at least had multiple 25/500 tables open. Yet - the Senecas are managed by indian givers. The main entrance is under construction - its amazing the place is even allowed to operate with only two customer entrances and egress exits.

I do like Craps and have cashed in good a few times but I'll take a month off before jumping back in the pool. Or I'll just go to Presque Isle or Turning Stone...

Have a great day...
ChumpChange
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July 11th, 2023 at 5:59:04 AM permalink
Wow, Presque Isle is in a little strip of PA next to Lake Erie. I was thinking of going to a casino in Erie, Ohio but I guess this is in Erie, PA. I didn't really want to mess with Ohio.

Typical trip advisor review of Presque Isle: They have their machines set to rip off people. The payouts are few and far between. Very disappointing and stressful experience. You will be chasing your money back the entire visit.
Others go to Seneca Allegany Resort & Casino they say.

My local casino was taken over by Churchill Downs recently, so I'll have to keep in mind the slots may have been tightened to intolerable, but I don't play slots to speak of so I don't know. I know I've seen lower table minimums occasionally, like $10 instead of $15 for craps or MS Stud, but it's still mostly $25 BJ & $50/$100 Baccarat. I think the Syracuse area casinos might have $10/$15 BJ & craps. It's going to be hot today so I might take a trip today. I'll be looking for $5 Spanish 21, but I'll likely find that doesn't exist unless the place is dead and I ask. I'm pretty sure Turning Stone will have $10 BJ if Syracuse doesn't.

It was115 degrees in my car so I just went to fill the tank, drive around to get it down to 100 degrees, went shopping, brought the groceries in and I'm not feeling good about being outside in 90 degree heat again.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jul 11, 2023
SOOPOO
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July 11th, 2023 at 2:28:32 PM permalink
Quote: wizardofbuffalo

Thanks. I got the boot for a misconduct 3 weeks ago where they overserved me and said I am not allowed on Seneca property for a month anyways. Its funny this occurred after I finished up a 4hr session at Spanish 21. The table paid out well. Two guys left up a couple of grand. I stayed too long but only blew $170. After about 8 mixed drinks and tipping the dealer and waitresses heavily so my entertainment was well paid for. They other players and the dealer were kind of coaching me how to play by the book. Hitting on 12 and 13s always was new to me but I liked the options with late doubling and player 21 getting paid right away without worrying about pushes. I got 3 7s but they weren't suited and the dealer didn't have one up.

Besides I'm not allowed on the Canadian side - two DWI's gets you a misconduct from visiting Canada to drink their beer...

So on the US side, at Buffalo Creek, the smallest tables are always 15/300. Ultimate Hold-em you only have to bet 10 but on the ante, blind, and trips makes it 30 anyways. I've never tried a bigger table than the 100/2K. But on July 7th when I got my miscoduct they didn't even have the 25/500 house money table open or a 50/1K. They only had like 5 blackjack options thatFriday afternoon. The options were 15/300 (house money or pair square) or 15/300 spanish21. So I tried 21 because I didn't want to jump right up to a 50/1K or 100/2K with my planned $200 small buy-in. Kinda ridiculous. Seneca Niagara is 3x as big and they have more available but I'm not allowed up there either. They would have at least had multiple 25/500 tables open. Yet - the Senecas are managed by indian givers. The main entrance is under construction - its amazing the place is even allowed to operate with only two customer entrances and egress exits.

I do like Craps and have cashed in good a few times but I'll take a month off before jumping back in the pool. Or I'll just go to Presque Isle or Turning Stone...

Have a great day...
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I donít know if you smoke, but if you donít Del Lago is 1.5 hour drive and very nice. Is your Ďbootí due to advantage play or generally bad behavior? Iíve been there (Seneca Niagara) a few hundred times and have never seen them boot anyone. Granted, Iím usually playing Pai Gow which is generally not an AP opportunity.
wizardofbuffalo
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July 11th, 2023 at 8:45:27 PM permalink
Yes Presque Isle is about 75min West of Buffalo right off the I-90 thruway once ya cross into PA. Probably an hour before Cleveland, OH. I"ve never been in but driven by it many times. They have table games if I'm in a pinch for a fix. The way I see it is all casinos have their slots fixed to rip off people. That is why you mainly see retired people on fixed incomes and a shit ton of seniors there looking for a good hoorah ! Because they have nothing better to do before they die.

Seneca Alleghany I have yet to go to but it is right around Ellicottville, NY down south on the 219 from Buffalo in Amish / mainly rural country by the PA border. You'll find tons of hicks down there. And yes more seneca rigged slots...

I doubt you will find $5 spanish 21. Thats what I was putting on the match the dealer (that pays 4-1 for a pair and 9-1 suited) But again a $200 buy in lasted me a good 4hrs of free drinks on the house. Maybe for the last time because they are indian givers...
wizardofbuffalo
wizardofbuffalo
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July 11th, 2023 at 8:52:28 PM permalink
It certainly wasn't because of how I play. I'm a heavy drinker and will order a mixed drink every time a waitress comes by. Sometimes I get a little loud and people look at my table funny. Cause I earned the advantage card by blowing too much last year all my drinks are free. I just tip $1-$5 a piece. Which is roughly every 20min or half hour at the table games. I usually get shut off but they just snip me for 24hrs and let me come back in when I sober up. Thats the fun of going for me and drinking while playing 4-8hrs. I also point out when dealers make mistakes and they don't really like that. I'm not trying to get the dealers in trouble - I like to keep the game fair...
I have heard Del Lago mentioned but never checked it out. I don't drive anymore so I'd have to find a buddy to get there. Carry on...
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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July 12th, 2023 at 6:00:28 AM permalink
I usually get a couple ice-filled Sprites when I enter the casino and a couple more when I leave.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jul 12, 2023
wizardofbuffalo
wizardofbuffalo
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July 12th, 2023 at 11:37:55 PM permalink
Sprites are good. But I add Stolichnaya Raz to mine. Actually the Senecas serve 3 olives or smirnoff. But I do like the raz effect.
At Seneca they don't let you leave with ice filled drinks. They are sticklers like that... Maybe they fear the contaminated ice probably laced with fentanyl and plastic leaving the facility will get them shut down if they don't clean up the parking lot that has been under construction for 3 months. While the main entrance isn't even open. Just a single entrance to the parking garage and one more entrance for all the people inside to leave if some punk pulls the fire alarm. I hope the wizard will adapt and put a spanish 21 free trainer on his site. That would be awesomely helpful... Cause without the 10s - counting gets shifted over a tad... At least how to interpret the count at a spanish table vs regular bj table...
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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July 12th, 2023 at 11:43:03 PM permalink
I'd hope to be lucky enough to win the $1K or $5K bonus for the triple suited 7s plus the dealer 7 in Spanish 21.
wizardofbuffalo
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July 13th, 2023 at 12:39:19 AM permalink
For the wizards intimate knowledge - I would like to add this to my bj card counting / spanish 21 post.

I know side bets are bad odds. But with 48 card decks, 6-8 decks, and a continuous shuffler:

I think with a table that has match the dealer, odds of matching the dealer up card are 1/12 roughly and odds of a suited match with the dealer are probably 1/56. If the table plays 4-1 on a match and 9-1 on a suited match what are the odds of hitting the side bet? I saw lots of matches over my 4hr stretch. And a pair that matches the dealer up card - it pays both...

Like I said previously I suspect the guys that won big at the table and left well up - were counting and adjusting bet size by their instincts. They would change bet size (what seemed to me like randomly at the time) and occasionally up their main and side bet action to win up to table max on the side bets. Or maybe it was just coincidental. Or maybe thats why I got scratched for a month because they were witnessing other people counting and thought I was in the club.

The way I see it is a deck without 10s - the odds are slightly better to match the dealer than a regular blackjack pair square table. But if you can sense them coming - that can be another clear advantage to trying spanish 21 to get out of the regular blackjack rut in my opinion.

Any thoughts on this - I'm not totally drunk but am always looking for advice on making improvements to my playing...

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