only1choice
only1choice
Joined: Jul 8, 2010
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December 20th, 2010 at 11:25:33 AM permalink
Only kidding about the fame and fortune. My fellow members I am posting this chain of events for your comments and suggestions. Over the years I have been an AP staying for the most part under the radar utilizing some of the lower advantage playing methods. Tipping dealers, being very conversational and basically doing the opposite of most AP's but fortunately producing a profit most years. The wife and I take full advantage of all the comps which has been considerable. A buddy of mine who like myself goes regularly just uses basic strategy and bets wildly with his normal $10-15,000 bankroll. You know how he does overall.
He will not try to learn advantage playing but is always trying some betting scheme. He asked me one day about progressions, parlays etc., you get the idea. I gave him the bad news that no "betting system can overcome the house edge", AS WE ALL AGREE. Over the years even thou my brain told me it couldn't be done I always wanted to work out a chain of steps, driven by a negative expectation result, that could give you a reasonable chance of profit with the options to try multiple attempts to be successful with a reasonable starting bankroll. (that was some sentence, try saying that fast 10 times) It also had to be completely different then anything I have ever seen before, no martingale, paroli, labouchere etc. It also needed to be set up to allow you to withstand the dreaded hot dealer hand of 6-8 losses in a row which we all know happens more than we would like. Also the method (please note I am calling this a method not a system) needs to, at certain points, only recoup part of your previous losses and get you closer to the goal which is to stay in the first four steps, the 12th step being the final. Again, I cannot overly emphasize I make no wild claims about breaking the bank with this method of play. I have played exclusively six times with this method and have won all six. Please hold the laughter to a low roar, six times, is this a joke ? no. I am in the infancy of this experiment and would like to share it with you, OK? I would rather not get into specifics other than saying that the profit has been considerable. (with a little detective work you could find out the amount) I am going to continue my experiment with house money and see where this all goes.

This may seem a little complicated but I will give footnotes. One final piece of advice get the dealers on your side. Find out what kind of game your contemplating entering or sit down and watch some play. I cannot tell you how many times I have seen players at a table lose hand after hand and stay at the table waiting for it to change. As a side note during one 9 hour AP session (not using this method) I hold the unofficial record as far as I know of playing at 27 tables ( got total from host the following day) some tables, more than once and the last table was the charm recouping all and winning. I slept good that nite.

Well enough of me rambling on I will present you with the basics, then the format and finally footnotes.
1. The goal is to stay in the range of the 1st to 4th hand or step.
2. Every scenario is covered with a next step.
3. When doubling and or splitting if successful the letter(WD) will direct you to the next step.
If not successful the letter (LD) will direct you to the next step.
5. Steps 1&2 are one win bets. Steps 3-12 are parlay bets, the symbol (W) will direct you to the next step.
6. ** If you double or split during steps 3-12 on the (2nd) half of the parlay, the corresponding step after a win or loss is(not) indicated on the step page, and you need to glance at the steps to determine where that places you in the step pattern, two additional steps forward or back usually will suffice, Give me a break you gotta do a little work on your own.
7. I have made 11 separate charts, 10 of which I bring with me. If I sense that it is an even game, in other words if the dealer is busting at a normal rate and only making his/her hands occasionally nothing crazy and we have all seen that, I will progress to a higher starting step chart. However this could be an overly agressive move for some. Stay at your own comfort level.
8. Chart 2 starts at $ 50 bankroll needed $1025 , Chart 1 starts at $25 bankroll $500 for beginners
Chart 3 100 2050
Chart 4 150 3075
Chart 5 200 4100
Chart 6 250 5125
Chart 7 300 6150
Chart 8 350 7175
Chart 9 400 8200
Chart10 450 9225
Chart11 500 10250

9. I would suggest in the beginning start at $50 and wait till your up more then the next steps bankroll to lock in some profits.
10. Exit strategy up to you. If you are up a decent amount you do not have to complete the steps to the end if you feel the game is changing. Lock in some profit and get out of there.
11. On my charts I have 15 steps not reflecting the above totals. I did not list them because I feel at that point you should have left the table for greener pastures. I have only used step 13 once on chart 5 and as you can surmise I did eventually win. Using this is not for the faint of heart. As I am writing this I have changed my strategy slightly for my next visits. If I complete step 8 and the hands have been just ugly I'm going to leave the table and pick up at another table step 9.
12. If anyone decides to give this a try print up the chart on a computer to give it a fresh professional look. Most of the dealers think it is a homemade strategy card.

And now to it:

win double-----WD-----WD-----WD-----WD-----WD-----WD-----WD-----WD-----WD-----WD-----WD
--------------------1--------2---------2-------3---------3-------5--------6--------7--------8--------8-------10
win hand--------W1------W1-----W1------W3-----W2-----W3------W5-----W5-----W6-----W6------W8
bet----------50--75------(50)----(75)----(50)----(75)-----(75)----(75)---(100)--(100)---(150)--(150)
step---------1----2---------3--------4--------5--------6--------7--------8--------9-------10------11-------12
lose dble--LD--LD------LD-------LD------LD------LD-------LD------LD------LD-------LD----end------end
---------------3----5--------5---------7--------7--------8---------9-------10-----11-------12-----end------end

Recap:
Steps 3-12 are parlays.
Start bet 50, only progress forward upon a loss
bet 50 lose go to step 2, lose step 3 a 50 parlay lose go to step 4 and so on
win step,go to listed Win hand step.example step 5 $50 parlay win, let ride $100,win go to W3 step 3
step 6 $75 parlay double down lose go to LD8 step 8
step 6 $75 parlay double down win go to WD3 step3
step 6 $75 parlay double down win go to WD3 step 3

My thanks to Mr. Benbakdoff for his kind words and advice.

P.S. I welcome any comments, suggestions questions and especially any analysis.
IF YOU PLAY "PLAY TO WIN"
dm
dm
Joined: Apr 29, 2010
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December 20th, 2010 at 3:19:53 PM permalink
So, all of us agree except you?
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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December 20th, 2010 at 3:23:28 PM permalink
To be fair, "reasonable chance of profit" is different than "positive EV system". It's all in how you shape the distribution. There's a lot to be said for crafting a betting system that hits your desired outcome/session/trip distribution. For starters, it implies you know what that desired distribution is. That's something most people don't consciously consider.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
only1choice
only1choice
Joined: Jul 8, 2010
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December 21st, 2010 at 1:15:13 PM permalink
I agree also. But I am just having some fun with something that is working right now.
IF YOU PLAY "PLAY TO WIN"
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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December 26th, 2010 at 5:58:19 AM permalink
Went back and looked again at your chart. Still can't figure it out except that it is some sort of negative progression. I do not like parlays or double wins. The former kills you on the chop, the latter reduces you to just spinning your wheels on a chop. Anyway I hope you can clean up the typing and explain it a bit better.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
only1choice
only1choice
Joined: Jul 8, 2010
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December 26th, 2010 at 7:21:56 AM permalink
The wiz was kind enough to tell me know that no one has any interest in ths type of thread. Unlike some members I will just let the thread die.

P.S. I sent you a pm.
IF YOU PLAY "PLAY TO WIN"
aceofhearts
aceofhearts
Joined: Dec 23, 2010
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December 26th, 2010 at 8:10:17 AM permalink
It still amazes me that here we are in the 21 st century and we are still discussing systems designed to defeat mathematically airtight games. Yes, you can win and you can attribute those wins to a system until you start losing again, then so much for that system. I've won money with no system just betting on my hunches or what the heck I felt like betting at the time. At the same time I have seen my bankroll go south using some sort of system that I read about or devised myself. I think its mostly psychological...giving a feeling of being in control of statistically absolute but at the same time statistically chaotic games.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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December 26th, 2010 at 10:14:51 AM permalink
Quote: aceofhearts

giving a feeling of being in control of statistically absolute but at the same time statistically chaotic games.


Correction: random, not chaotic. Chaotic systems require dependence on prior conditions, while casino games are wholly independent random trials. The exception is some card games, but those don't exhibit chaotic behavior either -- both baccarat and blackjack have reasonably straightforward transitions between one hand and another.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
aceofhearts
aceofhearts
Joined: Dec 23, 2010
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December 26th, 2010 at 12:10:46 PM permalink
Random would be correct, however chaotic sequences have statistical properties without being precisely predictable.
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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December 26th, 2010 at 2:52:44 PM permalink
Quote: aceofhearts

It still amazes me that here we are in the 21 st century and we are still discussing systems designed to defeat mathematically airtight games.



The trick is not to defeat the game, the trick is to find a system that stays close to or at even all the time. Then when you get a few units ahead, which is inevitable, you quit playing for the day. You will get a few units behind also, but just keep playing till you get back to even. Its a balancing act.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal

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