MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
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August 19th, 2022 at 9:43:50 PM permalink
The article says he lost $13,000 in 2-3 hours with an average bet size of $721.

https://news.yahoo.com/former-fbi-agent-sentenced-gambling-025840260.html

$721 x 100 rounds/hr. x 0.5% house edge x 3 hours = $1081.50 in expected loss, quite far from $13,000.

So at least one of these must be true:

(1) He's bad at blackjack.
(2) He's a generous tipper.
(3) He was super unlucky.*
(4) The numbers in the article were wrong.

*EDIT: As per the discussion below, just unlucky, not "super" unlucky.
Last edited by: MichaelBluejay on Aug 20, 2022
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AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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August 19th, 2022 at 9:58:33 PM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay



So at least one of these must be true:

(1) He's bad at blackjack.
(2) He's a generous tipper.
(3) He was super unlucky.
(4) The numbers in the article were wrong.
link to original post



(5) Theoretical results can be way different than actual results.
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
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August 19th, 2022 at 10:14:09 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

(5) Theoretical results can be way different than actual results.

That's a re-stating of #3.
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ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
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August 19th, 2022 at 10:58:09 PM permalink
To get an average bet of $721, they must have rerolled that beautiful bean footage and counted each hand and each bet.
Ace2
Ace2
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August 19th, 2022 at 11:21:46 PM permalink
Ever hear of variance?

If he made 200 bets then his expectation, assuming 0.5% edge, was -1 +/- 16. Applying $721 gives $-721 +/- $11,536 so losing $13,000 would be easy

Id guess his edge was more like 2%, making a $13k loss within one standard deviation of $2884 expected loss
Its all about making that GTA
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
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August 19th, 2022 at 11:31:41 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Ever hear of variance?...Id guess his edge was more like 2%, making a $13k loss within one standard deviation of $2884 expected loss
link to original post

Yes, that would be #1 and #3.
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Ace2
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MichaelBluejay
August 19th, 2022 at 11:40:45 PM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay

Quote: Ace2

Ever hear of variance?...Id guess his edge was more like 2%, making a $13k loss within one standard deviation of $2884 expected loss
link to original post

Yes, that would be #1 and #3.
link to original post

$13k is normal variance regardless of his skills. Losing/winning that amount wouldnt be super unlucky/lucky
Its all about making that GTA
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
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August 20th, 2022 at 12:20:53 AM permalink
It seems like you said that your 1SD calc was based on a 2% edge, which would suggest poor skill.

I do realize that I erred by considering only flat betting. Certainly if he often bet a lot more than average, then variance would be a lot higher.

I'm also remembering from my counting days that spreading $25-$150 resulted in about ±$1000/hr, and $100-600 was about ±$4000/hr. So yeah, if $100-600 could yield -$12,000, then $721 certainly could certainly yield about that result. (Not an exact comparison, b/c -$4000/hr. for one hour is a lot less likely than -$12,000 for three hours, because we'd have to be in the bad range for a one-hour return three times in a row, much less likely than doing so just once.)
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Deucekies
Deucekies
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August 20th, 2022 at 2:36:40 AM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay



$721 x 100 rounds/hr.



100 rounds an hour? That seems awfully slow for blackjack, unless he was on a full table. I've never played blackjack in a high limit room. Is it really that much slower?
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mcallister3200
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August 20th, 2022 at 2:42:13 AM permalink
Ive counted (either very overweight, very old or Bellagio, ok I didnt have to add Bellagio if already mentioning old) dealers dealing blackjack as slow as 30 hands an hour and I think 60 is more of a common average nowadays than 100 on a fullish main floor table with all the sidebet nonsense.

Depends on whos at your table in high limit but imo those games actually move faster due mainly to lack of side bets and less full tables, fewer inexperienced/indecisive players.
odiousgambit
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August 20th, 2022 at 2:58:26 AM permalink
[edit ... made comments before reading article]

I'll go with number 4.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Gundy
Gundy
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August 20th, 2022 at 4:40:56 AM permalink
FBI agents are ploppies. 100% of them.

Everyone knows this. It's common knowledge among the law enforcement community.
UP84
UP84
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August 20th, 2022 at 6:47:21 AM permalink
Quote: Gundy

FBI agents are ploppies. 100% of them.

Everyone knows this. It's common knowledge among the law enforcement community.
link to original post

Definitely not true. A few years back it came out that an FBI agent Dale Cooper (working under the alias D. Jones) used his AP skills as a slot player to clean out a Las Vegas casino of $425,000. He was working on a related operation and the winnings nearly blew his cover.
TigerWu
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Dieter
August 20th, 2022 at 8:13:39 AM permalink
That's an average 18 unit loss in 2-3 hours, and that was his entire bankroll. He's just guilty of poor money management. And stealing, obviously.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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MichaelBluejay
August 20th, 2022 at 12:19:14 PM permalink
Yeah he lost... but look at the free play offers he'll be getting....
Seedvalue
Seedvalue
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August 20th, 2022 at 1:01:40 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Yeah he lost... but look at the free play offers he'll be getting....
link to original post



There seems to be many of these special agents around gambling cities. Blending in losing government money. Its the only logical conclusion after watching guys lose tens of thousands a week for months on end. They also seem to ask to many questions about Ap, pretend to be APs,, but never win. I wonder

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