PotOdds
PotOdds
Joined: Jun 5, 2022
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June 5th, 2022 at 4:46:42 PM permalink
Recently a friend of mine got me into online blackjack. He showed me his results, churning $3.5 million, he was able to make $25k. Which is about a 0.7% advantage, doing just basic strategy on FanDuel and DraftKings. Given that perfect basic strategy should yield a 0.5% house advantage, with the promos, he's getting a 1.2% edge.

I wanted to know what if other players have churn BJ promos to build a bankroll? Besides FanDuel and DraftKings, would it be a good idea to try BetMGM and Caesar (as well as others)? I believe BetMGM has a $1k bonus match. Casino requirements are to churn 14x to get $10 so 14k hands at $10 bets would unlock $1k bonus after $140,000 is bet. house edge 0.005 x $140k = $700 loss. Theoretically, should net $300 or 2% positive EV.

I'm new to this so plz forgive any mistakes.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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June 6th, 2022 at 1:38:15 AM permalink
Hi and welcome:

I think the calc is closer to about 0.21% net EV (if the the turnover is $140,000 ?).

Note: If wagering from doubles and splits counts towards the requirements, then the basic strategy player would probably earn closer to 0.27% net EV.

I don't think you asked, but there are at least three main ways to consider playing this:


1) "the minimize downside way"
Bet the smallest amount you are comfortable with playing, eg $1 bets would almost make sure that you are earning close to the net EV figure mentioned above, and you only have a small chance of losing all the funds.

Pro(s): Hard to bust out, and it is unlikely to break any "bonus terms and conditions (Ts & Cs)"
Con(s): Average EV is minimized. Will take up to 140,000 hands (so ~140 hours at 1000 hands per hour)


2) "bet up to the table maximum way"
Always bet the largest amount you can, that leaves you with enough funds for correct basic strategy
Eg, if the game lets you split to two hands, and DAS , then bet a maximum of $500 per game, if you currently have $2,000.

Note: Method 2) would have a high EV ($800+) but the cost would be the "high chance of busting" (about 5/6 chance of busting).


3) "Two-tier way", see link here for details.

The pros and cons of 2) and 3) are similar (see below):

Pro(s): Average EV is improved. Will take a shorter time to complete the bonus.
Con(s): Easy to bust out, and it is likely that "bonus terms and conditions (Ts & Cs)" are broken.


Important: Each of the above ways have their "pros and cons", but make sure you are not breaking any Ts & Cs before you attempt them (especially if you try something similar to "2)" or "3)").

Lastly, if allowed by the Ts & Cs, I would probably use the "Two-tier way", otherwise I would bet the maximum bet allowed in the Ts & Cs.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 6, 2022
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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June 6th, 2022 at 2:21:08 AM permalink
Quote: PotOdds

Recently a friend of mine got me into online blackjack. He showed me his results, churning $3.5 million, he was able to make $25k. Which is about a 0.7% advantage, doing just basic strategy on FanDuel and DraftKings. Given that perfect basic strategy should yield a 0.5% house advantage, with the promos, he's getting a 1.2% edge.

I wanted to know what if other players have churn BJ promos to build a bankroll? Besides FanDuel and DraftKings, would it be a good idea to try BetMGM and Caesar (as well as others)? I believe BetMGM has a $1k bonus match. Casino requirements are to churn 14x to get $10 so 14k hands at $10 bets would unlock $1k bonus after $140,000 is bet. house edge 0.005 x $140k = $700 loss. Theoretically, should net $300 or 2% positive EV.

I'm new to this so plz forgive any mistakes.
link to original post


It is possible to exploit some bonuses to get an edge, and I've done so myself. A few others do to. It can be fun, but it's not easy riches and hardly worth too much effort unless you love Blackjack. It's easy to get identified as an unvalued customer and get your account summarily closed. Also, having a small edge doesn't stop you having a high risk of ruin.
Note also that many casinos apply a 10x multiplier of the wagering requirements when played through as BlackJack.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
PotOdds
PotOdds
Joined: Jun 5, 2022
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
June 6th, 2022 at 4:35:45 AM permalink
Thanks ksdjdj. My bad, had decimal place off but the total $ is in the ballpark. Prefer to keep the volatility down plus going through hundred of hands isn't hard when you are lounging at home, watching TV. Will study 3). The positive with playing lots of hands is I will be able to memorize perfect basic strategy. Right now, have one of those plastic cheat cards but it's starting to click.
PotOdds
PotOdds
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June 6th, 2022 at 4:37:33 AM permalink
Thanks OnceDear. Some online casinos like FanDuel will just increase the odds against you rather than ban you. Some promos are pushing like 50x in order to complete which I feel is too much.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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June 6th, 2022 at 6:41:33 PM permalink
Quote: PotOdds

(snip)...playing lots of hands is I will be able to memorize perfect basic strategy. Right now, have one of those plastic cheat cards but it's starting to click.
link to original post


If you want to improve your game "a bit more", you should probably use one of the "basic strategy makers" from the links here or here (unless the "plastic cheat card" happens to be the correct one for the rules you are playing).
Dobrij
Dobrij
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June 6th, 2022 at 9:04:12 PM permalink
In Europe, most online casinos on games such as blackjack do not allow wagering bonuses at all. And the size of the bonus is limited, for example, up to 1000 euros.

If you know a fair casino(who pay the winnings) where wager is x10 or less(on any game, even a slots), please pm me the link to me.
: )
PotOdds
PotOdds
Joined: Jun 5, 2022
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June 7th, 2022 at 3:59:28 AM permalink
Thanks ksdjdj

Yep thanks I use those links. You are right, I had to verify what type of games the online casinos were using. I verified using those links that it was correct.
PotOdds
PotOdds
Joined: Jun 5, 2022
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June 7th, 2022 at 4:03:04 AM permalink
Dobrij,
FanDuel and DK initially had 10x for new users but it's getting scarcer. I wonder if they rank players who play perfect black strategy then restrict them.

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