Learning Card Counting

If I wanted to learn card counting, how accurate should my count be to have an impact on my performance?

Can I miss a few hands and still be confident or does a missed hand (several players in that hand) damage my count?

Does an approximate count have value?

If I'm standing near a table and counting cards before sitting down how accurate does my count have to be?

Thanks.

Quote: AlanMendelson

If I wanted to learn card counting, how accurate should my count be to have an impact on my performance?

Can I miss a few hands and still be confident or does a missed hand (several players in that hand) damage my count?

Does an approximate count have value?

If I'm standing near a table and counting cards before sitting down how accurate does my count have to be?

Thanks.

Individual cards only have a small contribution to the true count, so if you miss one card in ten, it's not a disaster. Missing whole hands would be bad news. Similarly with hi-low or similar, you ESTIMATE cards dealt from the height of the stack Accuracy is a nice to have, but not essential or even expected.

An approximate count has diminished value, but some. E.g, if your true count is -2 but you missed some, it might actually be -1 or -3. Still nominally favourable and since you dont know which extreme, the missed cards might have contributed either way.

If planning to wong in, you don't want to get it too wrong too often. Better to stay out if your count is in error.

If you are serious about learning it, and it is dead easy, look in and practice on the live dealer tables of an online casino. they usually run slower that a Bricks and Mortar gaff and there's no-one watching you or distracting you.

Dont expect to do it for profit though.

Quote: OnceDear

An approximate count has diminished value, but some. E.g, if your true count is -2 but you missed some, it might actually be -1 or -3. Still nominally favourable and since you dont know which extreme, the missed cards might have contributed either way.

This gets to the heart of my question. How much value am I losing here?

I'd like to get a percentage if possible. I think a royal flush in video poker is responsible for 2% of the return. So how much do missed cards in blackjack count?

Is my question valid?

Thanks.

Quote: AlanMendelson

This gets to the heart of my question. How much value am I losing here?

I'd like to get a percentage if possible. I think a royal flush in video poker is responsible for 2% of the return. So how much do missed cards in blackjack count?

Is my question valid?

Thanks.

Alan, you will soon figure that as you practice... Let's work a simple High Low example.

Let's round nearest and simplify
No cards dealt, 6 deck shoe House edge 0.5%
Roughly for every unit count, the house edge swings by 0.5%
So... When True count is 1 house edge is 0%
When TC is 3, player edge is about 2%

So, lets say 52 cards are dealt and at the end of those 52 cards the rolling count is +12. True count is 12/6 (1 of 6 decks seen ) =2
Cool. you have a 0.5% edge. Tiny.
But you missed 5 cards, They may have been rich in tens or aces and you wont know. If 2 of them had been tens, your rolling count would have been over by 2 your true count up by 2/6 = 0.33. so 1.67 is what you really have. That means your advantage that you thought was 0.5% is now more like 0.33%
Or maybe all those missed cards were 2's and 3s or maybe a couple of 2s, 3's an ace and a ten.... Fact is your edge might be bigger or greater than your estimate or maybe gone altogether. Would you feel happy raisnig your hands from $25 to $100? You are just flying a bit blind.
It's really very tight margins here. you could count badly and get lucky or unlucky and might never know why.
It's not so much how many cards you miss, but what those missed cards were.... but they were missed so you wont know.

Thank you for the details.
To sum it up it appears to me that any missed cards can seriously impact any edge you think you might have.
Is that correct?

Quote: OnceDear

It's not so much how many cards you miss, but what those missed cards were.... but they were missed so you wont know.

Now, I'm not advocating this, but if you hit a high count of say TC4 you can sort of forget about counting a bit and just whack out those bigger bets. It would take a few hands for the count to regress towards TC1 so just freewheel on the count for the last few hands.

Quote: AlanMendelson

If I wanted to learn card counting, how accurate should my count be to have an impact on my performance?

Can I miss a few hands and still be confident or does a missed hand (several players in that hand) damage my count?

Does an approximate count have value?

If I'm standing near a table and counting cards before sitting down how accurate does my count have to be?

Thanks.

if you do decide to do this your goal should be to play perfectly with no errors and missing nothing

your count should be 100% accurate

it would be a mistake to think you will have a good experience if you don't do these things

you can miss counting some cards because you started back counting after the first few deal outs

but not because you're not paying attention

don't want to be overly critical but it seems like you're trying to make something easy that is not easy

no reason to sacrifice anything to inattention



.

A card you don't see is no different than a card you have yet to see.

Quote: billryan

A card you don't see is no different than a card you have yet to see.

it is different because it means you will have seen a lesser % of all of the cards

the count you keep will be more accurate if you have seen and tabulated all of the cards that you could have seen


.

Quote: lilredrooster

it is different because it means you will have seen a lesser % of all of the cards

the count you keep will be more accurate if you have seen and tabulated all of the cards that you could have seen


.

Absolutely, but the card has been missed and you have to do something about it. Ideally, you count every card but when you miss one, the best thing I know to do is to just think of it as being back in the deck.

Quote: billryan

Absolutely, but the card has been missed and you have to do something about it. Ideally, you count every card but when you miss one, the best thing I know to do is to just think of it as being back in the deck.

You talk of missing ONE and I reckon that sums it up. Missing one is not an issue. Missing more is careless, unless you are maybe counting 2 tables and wonging in where the count is HUGE.

Quote: OnceDear

You talk of missing ONE and I reckon that sums it up. Missing one is not an issue. Missing more is careless, unless you are maybe counting 2 tables and wonging in where the count is HUGE.

Not sure how this happened but everything above is OD's quote, below is my response.[Edit Fixed by mod}

It's not something an experienced counter would do, but that isn't who asked the question. Every new counter will miss cards and should be prepared for when it happens. It's not the end of the world and there is no reason to break your stride. All counting does is give you the approximate ratio of good cards remaining to bad cards.
When I started, I 'd count every hand on the table. Before long I was canceling out most hands so it was much easier to do. That will come after dozens or hundreds of hours of practice. I started counting in March and made my first counting trip to a casino in the end of October. Spent ten days at the El Cortez playing their $2 and $3 tables, spreading 1-4 and worrying about getting that tap on the shoulder. I had more winning sessions than losing and made my room costs most days. It was my first trip to Vegas and I never left Fremont Street and gambled only at the E.C.

billryan, it was merely a missing bracket “]” after the marker of the end of OD’s quote “…HUGE. [/q”. Easy to remove without noticing by backspacing past your added content. Just an FYI…

Quote: AlanMendelson

If I wanted to learn card counting, how accurate should my count be to have an impact on my performance?

Can I miss a few hands and still be confident or does a missed hand (several players in that hand) damage my count?

Does an approximate count have value?

If I'm standing near a table and counting cards before sitting down how accurate does my count have to be?

Thanks.

We all know you have no desire to learn how to count cards. You're asking this question for other reasons. But whatever.

Every card you miss just increases the effective penetration. If you miss 26 cards on a table with 1 deck of 6 cutoff then it's like you counted down a game with 1.5 decks/6 cutoff. It impacts your return but it certainly wouldn't drive the game negative like you seem to think it would. Your count is still accurate as long as you account for the approximate number of cards you've missed, so that your true count conversion is accurate.

Quote: sabre

We all know you have no desire to learn how to count cards. You're asking this question for other reasons. But whatever.

Every card you miss just increases the effective penetration. If you miss 26 cards on a table with 1 deck of 6 cutoff then it's like you counted down a game with 1.5 decks/6 cutoff. It impacts your return but it certainly wouldn't drive the game negative like you seem to think it would. Your count is still accurate as long as you account for the approximate number of cards you've missed, so that your true count conversion is accurate.

Thanks. I'm glad you know what I'm thinking. I'm also thinking about enrolling in a dealer's school here in Vegas. I thought it would be a fun way to spend my time as a retiree.

I want you to be up to date on my thoughts.

I'm also looking for recommendations. I see some deals for $499 for three games.

Quote: sabre

We all know you have no desire to learn how to count cards. You're asking this question for other reasons.

^^^^^ this

Quote: OnceDear

Alan, you will soon figure that as you practice... Let's work a simple High Low example.

Let's round nearest and simplify
No cards dealt, 6 deck shoe House edge 0.5%
Roughly for every unit count, the house edge swings by 0.5%
So... When True count is 1 house edge is 0%
When TC is 3, player edge is about 2%

Correction OnceDear when the TC is +3 the player edge is about 1%.

Quote: BoSox

Correction OnceDear when the TC is +3 the player edge is about 1%.

Thanks, I stand corrected. TC+3 swings the edge by 1.5% from -0.5% gives +1%

I was just simplifying for Alan, and I screwed up the simplest mental arithmetic.

I'm not active as a card counter, as you probably guessed. I used to try it for added amusement only. I did research it for a technical attack on an online game.

As to Alan.... I wonder why he started this thread. I suspect it's to settle a disagreement elsewhere.
Am I close, Alan?

Quote: OnceDear

Thanks, I'm not disagreeing. I was just simplifying for Alan, with count of one worth approx 0.5%

I'm not active as a card counter, as you probably guessed. I used to try it for added amusement only. I did research it for a technical attack on an online game.

As to Alan.... I wonder why he started this thread. I suspect it's to settle a disagreement elsewhere.
Am I close, Alan?

No.

As I mentioned I'm going to enroll in a dealers school. Broadening my horizons.

I know that's not what you all want to read. You want something more juicey.

Sorry.

Quote: AlanMendelson

No.

As I mentioned I'm going to enroll in a dealers school. Broadening my horizons.

I know that's not what you all want to read. You want something more juicey.

Sorry.

I'm sorry too. I don't want or expect anything juicy.
I don't believe in coinkydinks.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Thanks. I'm glad you know what I'm thinking. I'm also thinking about enrolling in a dealer's school here in Vegas. I thought it would be a fun way to spend my time as a retiree.

I want you to be up to date on my thoughts.

I'm also looking for recommendations. I see some deals for $499 for three games.

so, if you become a dealer - you want to know more about card counting - why ? - to be able to identify APs?
I doubt you're going to tell them that their count is off

so is it to win brownie points by informing the PB?

I'm sorry I took the time to answer your question as best as I could



.

Quote: lilredrooster

so, if you become a dealer - you want to know more about card counting - why ? - to be able to identify APs?
I doubt you're going to tell them that their count is off

so is it to win brownie points by informing the PB?

I'm sorry I took the time to answer your question as best as I could



.

Is it really difficult to accept that I'm interested in learning for learning's sake?

I'm 69 years old. For many decades I had a career built on asking questions. I continue to ask questions.

Will knowing about card counting help me in dealers school? I dont know. But when I put my mind to doing something I go all in.

By the way, I need to choose three courses. Craps will be fairly easy for me but I admit I'll need to learn payoffs and procedures for the darkside.

Blackjack is a standard course, so I must take it.

Roulette is the third.

Poker would be a good choice for me because I know all about creating side pots. There were many times at Commerce or The Bike or Hollywood Park when we'd get a rookie dealer in a tournament who just took too long creating side pots and in a tournament you want to play as many hands as possible before rebuys were over so we players arranged the side pots to keep the games going. There is an upcharge for poker and I'll pay it.

Anyway... as a retiree it's a good way to spend my time. I actually thought about it before the Covid lockdowns.

And the $499 advertised tuition is less than one buyin at craps.

There are several schools nearby. The local college also has courses.

It also might make for an article. I still do freelancing as well as some TV Infomercials from time to time. They make nice supplements to my pension (SAG-AFTRA since 1972) and Social Security.

And would I actually work as a dealer? No. Rarely have I met a dealer who loved their work.

Duplicate

Quote: AlanMendelson

Is it really difficult to accept that I'm interested in learning for learning's sake?

I'm 69 years old. For many decades I had a career built on asking questions. I continue to ask questions.

Will knowing about card counting help me in dealers school? I dont know. But when I put my mind to doing something I go all in.

All of this does not make any sense, starting off with you are asking all the wrong questions. You becoming actually knowledgeable about card counting would I believe put you in the top echelon of dealers but would not help you in dealer school, as they are two completely separate topics.

Quote: AlanMendelson

And would I actually work as a dealer? No. Rarely have I met a dealer who loved their work.

If you are just interested in learning just for hobby sake for spending time I recommend that you choose the dealer school and forget all about card counting altogether. Why? Since as you say that when you put your mind to something that you go all in, the dealer school knowledge will never ever hurt you period especially since you do not intend to actually become a dealer. Regarding the other topic card counting, the old saying a small amount of knowledge about a topic can make people falsely believe that they are experts on the topic. Possibly giving you some wrong ideas. Besides you are not really interested in learning card counting because asking a few stray questions about a subject on a gaming board is not as you say going all in.

At your age, I'd suggest you concentrate on games where you deal seated. Your late 60s is not a good time to start a new career that will have you standing in one place for eight hours.

"Don't expect to do it for a profit"..hahahhaha that is funny where is the joke forum..

Quote: neverquitwhenup

"Don't expect to do it for a profit"..hahahhaha that is funny where is the joke forum..

if you knew the OP you might know why I said that 🙂

I could never shuffle cards so I would be happy with a shufflemaster around. Do they have those in Dealer's Schools? It could be fun to go to Dealer's School to try out if the $500 tuition doesn't mean more than $25 to the people who ask you if you want fries with that. I would not expect card counting would be part of the course material. I could be wrong. They could teach you all kinds of ways to be dumb and rat players out.
The math could be agonizing, and the way they want you to move chips around could be counter to everything you know about moving chips around as a player. At roulette, you've got times tables to memorize, 35 times X = 35X. People be betting 1 to 25 chips straight-up. And dealers still have to tell players to get away from the table if they use their phone.

I was just watching this video from a dealer school last hour.
6&8 UNIT PRESS ($5 & $15 Limit Table) - Short - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6bDVyV2JHg

Quote: AlanMendelson

If I wanted to learn card counting, how accurate should my count be to have an impact on my performance?

Can I miss a few hands and still be confident or does a missed hand (several players in that hand) damage my count?

Does an approximate count have value?

Thanks.

This is the second thread started by Alan during my hiatus, that is about my experiences as again it is in reference to a discussion only the day before Alan started this thread, about tracking a second table, which I sometimes do when conditions are just right. THAT is where the “missed cards” discussion came from. I have also had this discussion before with Alan and know he is skeptical of the technique, so I am not surprised he brought this topic up again.

To fully explain, I have to get into a bit about how I track a second table. For a player that plays very short sessions as I do with specific exit triggers that guarantee a short session, one way or another, as soon as you reach one of those exit triggers and exit, you are off looking for the next game and opportunity. So the natural progression is to start looking for that opportunity even before you exit the first one.

So if conditions are right and that usually has to do with where I am seated at my table and the players at the second table seated or not seated so as to provide a line of vision, then I am able to track a second table. That is not as complicated as it sounds. Unlike the primary count at my primary table which should be as accurate as possible, the count at a second table need not be perfect. You can miss a few cards here and there. Those cards just get added to the other unseen cards, essentially resulting in reduced penetration (cards actually seen). Standford Wong did fairly extensive work on this.

So like I said, I can miss a few cards and my count at that second table need not be perfect, just good enough to know that it is a better opportunity than the table I am currently playing. Here is an example: My primary table the count is hovering around zero or slightly negative. Not negative enough for my exit trigger, but those rounds are being played at a negative expectation. So the game at the second table starts, and after a few rounds, I have a running count of +13 which equates to a TC of +3. This is an advantage of 1 to 1.5 %, much more favorable than the game I am currently playing at negative expectation.

So what if my count at that second table is off slightly because of a couple missed cards and the count is +11 instead of +13. Still much more favorable than the game I am playing. Plus, it is almost as likely that the count is +15 than +13, even more favorable due to those missed cards. So do you see, count at that second table need not be perfect, just good enough to know it is a better, more favorable situation than the game you are currently playing.

One more thing I want to touch on. This technique is neither as complicated as it seems, nor as unusual. When I started doing it, I thought yeah, aren’t I so clever? But after discussion with other players, I came to learn that they were a number of experienced, pretty well known card counters that employed this technique, when conditions were right, including Don Schlesinger, Munchkin and a well know longtime member of this forum (occasionally) who prefers I not mention him by name/handle. So it isn’t as complicated, nor as rare as people tend to think. But it is a huge advantage. You are seeing roughly twice the good counts within the same number of rounds played. BIG advantage.

I have explained all this to Alan before so I am sure this explanation won’t stop his skepticism and that is fine. Happy days Alan. And good luck with learning card counting or dealer school.

Quote: kewlj

This is the second thread started by Alan during my hiatus, that is about my experiences as again it is in reference to a discussion only the day before Alan started this thread, about tracking a second table, which I sometimes do when conditions are just right.

KewlJ,
I cannot prove it, but I concur that there is linkage between what Alan posted in those threads and what you had posted of your experience.
You've got it off your chest now. You've exercised the privilege* that is free speech on this forum.
Now, as I recently said in another thread, "Let's keep it far, far more than civil, gentlemanly, and so far within the rules that there is no doubt.

Goes for everyone."

*Yup. "Privilege"

Quote: OnceDear

KewlJ,
I cannot prove it, but I concur that there is linkage between what Alan posted in those threads and what you had posted of your experience.
You've got it off your chest now. You've exercised the privilege* that is free speech on this forum.
Now, as I recently said in another thread, "Let's keep it far, far more than civil, gentlemanly, and so far within the rules that there is no doubt.

Goes for everyone."

*Yup. "Privilege"

Oncedear, these 2 posts on two topics that Alan started aboiut me, where in no way meant to be uncivil, or trolling. I like Alan and have had both these discussions with him before and he admits he doesn't play or understand much about blackjack, much less card counting. Since he brought these topics up again and they are really in reference to me and my experiences, I simply wanted to correct some misconceptions Alan relayed, and a very wrong conclusion, that a card counter losing $6000 in one day lost (120) small wagers. A card counters loses for the day are really about his Large or max wagers.

Not meant to be confrontational at all, but reather contributing to the discussion and correcting a couple false statement.

Quote: kewlj

Oncedear, these 2 posts on two topics that Alan started aboiut me, where in no way meant to be uncivil, or trolling. I like Alan and have had both these discussions with him before and he admits he doesn't play or understand much about blackjack, much less card counting. Since he brought these topics up again and they are really in reference to me and my experiences, I simply wanted to correct some misconceptions Alan relayed, and a very wrong conclusion, that a card counter losing $6000 in one day lost (120) small wagers. A card counters loses for the day are really about his Large or max wagers.

Not meant to be confrontational at all, but reather contributing to the discussion and correcting a couple false statement.

No problem KJ.

I think it was possibly disingenuous of him to make those two posts as he did. The coincidences are off the scale. I see that.

Let's be generous and say maybe he forgot where he'd seen those 'articles'

If you read other replies he's received, he has been put straight on the misconceptions that he put forward.

Quote: OnceDear

No problem KJ.

I think it was possibly disingenuous of him to make those two posts as he did. The coincidences are off the scale. I see that.

Let's be generous and say maybe he forgot where he'd seen those 'articles'

If you read other replies he's received, he has been put straight on the misconceptions that he put forward.

None of that really matters to me. I am familiar with how Alan operates. lol.

I am fine with him wanting to question two topics that were discussed the day before his posts and am fine with him questioning and expressing his skeptisism. I just wanted the opportunity to respond and join the discussion and unfortunately that had to wait a couple weeks. :/

Anything that Alan wants to add, I am happy to try to help him understand anything about either situation that he has questions about.

Quote: OnceDear

If you read other replies he's received, he has been put straight on the misconceptions that he put forward.

And by the way some responsed did just that, but some didn't in large part because the respondants didn't understand that Alan was talking about missed cards at a second table. That is crutial to the discussion.

Alan just said something like is it all right for a card counter to miss cards? The answer is of course not. You want your count to be as accurate as possible for best results. BUT in the case of tracking a second table, a player will miss a couple cards here and there and that is acceptable in the case of tracking a second table because the advantage of doing so is so huge And approximate count is absoluetely fine. Again, Stanford Wong proved this.

Now if I am only counting one table, my primary table and am missing cards right and left, then yes, I have a problem.