AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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August 4th, 2021 at 2:14:18 PM permalink
If I wanted to learn card counting, how accurate should my count be to have an impact on my performance?

Can I miss a few hands and still be confident or does a missed hand (several players in that hand) damage my count?

Does an approximate count have value?

If I'm standing near a table and counting cards before sitting down how accurate does my count have to be?

Thanks.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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August 4th, 2021 at 2:42:59 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

If I wanted to learn card counting, how accurate should my count be to have an impact on my performance?

Can I miss a few hands and still be confident or does a missed hand (several players in that hand) damage my count?

Does an approximate count have value?

If I'm standing near a table and counting cards before sitting down how accurate does my count have to be?

Thanks.

Individual cards only have a small contribution to the true count, so if you miss one card in ten, it's not a disaster. Missing whole hands would be bad news. Similarly with hi-low or similar, you ESTIMATE cards dealt from the height of the stack Accuracy is a nice to have, but not essential or even expected.

An approximate count has diminished value, but some. E.g, if your true count is -2 but you missed some, it might actually be -1 or -3. Still nominally favourable and since you dont know which extreme, the missed cards might have contributed either way.

If planning to wong in, you don't want to get it too wrong too often. Better to stay out if your count is in error.

If you are serious about learning it, and it is dead easy, look in and practice on the live dealer tables of an online casino. they usually run slower that a Bricks and Mortar gaff and there's no-one watching you or distracting you.

Dont expect to do it for profit though.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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August 4th, 2021 at 2:53:34 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

An approximate count has diminished value, but some. E.g, if your true count is -2 but you missed some, it might actually be -1 or -3. Still nominally favourable and since you dont know which extreme, the missed cards might have contributed either way.



This gets to the heart of my question. How much value am I losing here?

I'd like to get a percentage if possible. I think a royal flush in video poker is responsible for 2% of the return. So how much do missed cards in blackjack count?

Is my question valid?

Thanks.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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August 4th, 2021 at 3:22:56 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

This gets to the heart of my question. How much value am I losing here?

I'd like to get a percentage if possible. I think a royal flush in video poker is responsible for 2% of the return. So how much do missed cards in blackjack count?

Is my question valid?

Thanks.

Alan, you will soon figure that as you practice... Let's work a simple High Low example.

Let's round nearest and simplify
No cards dealt, 6 deck shoe House edge 0.5%
Roughly for every unit count, the house edge swings by 0.5%
So... When True count is 1 house edge is 0%
When TC is 3, player edge is about 2%

So, lets say 52 cards are dealt and at the end of those 52 cards the rolling count is +12. True count is 12/6 (1 of 6 decks seen ) =2
Cool. you have a 0.5% edge. Tiny.
But you missed 5 cards, They may have been rich in tens or aces and you wont know. If 2 of them had been tens, your rolling count would have been over by 2 your true count up by 2/6 = 0.33. so 1.67 is what you really have. That means your advantage that you thought was 0.5% is now more like 0.33%
Or maybe all those missed cards were 2's and 3s or maybe a couple of 2s, 3's an ace and a ten.... Fact is your edge might be bigger or greater than your estimate or maybe gone altogether. Would you feel happy raisnig your hands from $25 to $100? You are just flying a bit blind.
It's really very tight margins here. you could count badly and get lucky or unlucky and might never know why.
It's not so much how many cards you miss, but what those missed cards were.... but they were missed so you wont know.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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August 4th, 2021 at 3:33:34 PM permalink
Thank you for the details.
To sum it up it appears to me that any missed cards can seriously impact any edge you think you might have.
Is that correct?
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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August 4th, 2021 at 3:34:36 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear


It's not so much how many cards you miss, but what those missed cards were.... but they were missed so you wont know.

Now, I'm not advocating this, but if you hit a high count of say TC4 you can sort of forget about counting a bit and just whack out those bigger bets. It would take a few hands for the count to regress towards TC1 so just freewheel on the count for the last few hands.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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August 4th, 2021 at 3:44:10 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

If I wanted to learn card counting, how accurate should my count be to have an impact on my performance?

Can I miss a few hands and still be confident or does a missed hand (several players in that hand) damage my count?

Does an approximate count have value?

If I'm standing near a table and counting cards before sitting down how accurate does my count have to be?

Thanks.




if you do decide to do this your goal should be to play perfectly with no errors and missing nothing

your count should be 100% accurate

it would be a mistake to think you will have a good experience if you don't do these things

you can miss counting some cards because you started back counting after the first few deal outs

but not because you're not paying attention

don't want to be overly critical but it seems like you're trying to make something easy that is not easy

no reason to sacrifice anything to inattention



.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
billryan
billryan
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August 4th, 2021 at 3:46:48 PM permalink
A card you don't see is no different than a card you have yet to see.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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August 4th, 2021 at 3:50:58 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

A card you don't see is no different than a card you have yet to see.




it is different because it means you will have seen a lesser % of all of the cards

the count you keep will be more accurate if you have seen and tabulated all of the cards that you could have seen


.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
billryan
billryan
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August 4th, 2021 at 3:55:50 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

it is different because it means you will have seen a lesser % of all of the cards

the count you keep will be more accurate if you have seen and tabulated all of the cards that you could have seen


.



Absolutely, but the card has been missed and you have to do something about it. Ideally, you count every card but when you miss one, the best thing I know to do is to just think of it as being back in the deck.

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