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July 22nd, 2021 at 2:44:55 PM permalink
this is blackjack im speaking about

Lets say i knew where i could get a guaranteed table by myself with HALF of the amounts of decks that is normally offered by the casino... so normally they offer 8 decks to people who want to play by themselves... but what i am talking about is being able to play by myself with 4 decks for the same minimums that is normally offered at an 8 deck game...

lets also say that there was only one fix to the "play" and its been "fixed" up already so it doesnt exist any more

is this an advantage?

is it considered an advantage "play"?
unJon
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July 22nd, 2021 at 2:53:44 PM permalink
This is too vague for me.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
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July 22nd, 2021 at 2:56:00 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

This is too vague for me.



i think because its dead simple...

you have one table that has 4 decks offered

and you have another that has 8

...

if i sit at the one that offers 4 decks, am i at a bigger advantage against the casino if i sit at the 8 deck table...?
unJon
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July 22nd, 2021 at 2:58:28 PM permalink
I got that. Didn’t follow the play that was “fixed”.

But sure, 4 decks a bit better than 8 (“less disadvantageous”). But it’s like cars. Quick diminishing marginal returns on MPG once you get out far enough.

ETA: I take that back. I don’t know answer as to where the cut card effect trumps the more decks worse effect. Has to happen somewhere since a CSM is better than 6 decks.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
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July 22nd, 2021 at 3:05:19 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

I got that. Didn’t follow the play that was “fixed”.

But sure, 4 decks a bit better than 8. But it’s like cars. Quick diminishing marginal returns on MPG once you get out far enough.



well this was offered on PokerStars

if you have ever played poker on there, their POKER lobbies AUTOMATICALLY create a new table for every table when someone adds themselves to any table

this is so they never run out of tables to offer and so they can make as much money as possible

----

Now on to the blackjack

what i am speaking about is digital "atlantic city" blackjack

pokerstars pa offered two versions of this game - one was an 8 deck game that one player could play by themselves

the other was a MULTIPLAYER version that was capped at 4 decks

---

the trick was that WHENEVER anyone entered one of these "tables" - a new empty tables was ALWAYS created - and you didnt have to play with the other people at the table

"the fix" was them removing the "lobby" so that you cant see when a new table was created - as well as not being able to chose which table you can sit at - they just randomly plop you into any table that is open and running
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July 23rd, 2021 at 5:45:20 AM permalink
All other thing being equal, a 4 deck game is better than an 8 deck game by 0.083%
A $100 flat bettor would save $8.30 per hundred hands at a 4 decks game.
G Man
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July 23rd, 2021 at 6:55:57 AM permalink
In general the lower number of decks is slightly better for a basic strategy player assuming all other rules are the same.
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unJon
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July 23rd, 2021 at 7:21:44 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

In general the lower number of decks is slightly better for a basic strategy player assuming all other rules are the same.



But, this can’t continue to be true or CSM wouldn’t be better for player then a shoe. In other words, doesn’t that imply that infinite decks is better than a 6 or 8 deck shoe? Or is there something I’m missing?
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July 23rd, 2021 at 8:59:19 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

But, this can’t continue to be true or CSM wouldn’t be better for player then a shoe. In other words, doesn’t that imply that infinite decks is better than a 6 or 8 deck shoe? Or is there something I’m missing?



I think infinite deck is better for the basic strategy player.
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unJon
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July 23rd, 2021 at 11:40:40 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I think infinite deck is better for the basic strategy player.



Anyone know the inflection point where more decks becomes better for the player? Be an interesting graph to see.
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July 23rd, 2021 at 12:06:35 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Anyone know the inflection point where more decks becomes better for the player? Be an interesting graph to see.



An infinite deck is more like one deck just the cards are replaced after each hand.

I don't know for sure but I would think the first hand of a new deck or shoe is always the same no matter how many decks, Discarding any cut card effects as a CSM has no cut card.
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billryan
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July 23rd, 2021 at 2:25:41 PM permalink
For the average player, or even an advanced BS player, the only time they are not at a disadvantage is during the shuffle. CSMs destroy that slight advantage.
Simply put- CSMs result in more hands per hour. Good for the house, bad for the players.
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July 23rd, 2021 at 3:00:13 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

For the average player, or even an advanced BS player, the only time they are not at a disadvantage is during the shuffle. CSMs destroy that slight advantage.
Simply put- CSMs result in more hands per hour. Good for the house, bad for the players.



I get that. Not my question.
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July 23rd, 2021 at 5:58:31 PM permalink
One person apparently looked at 4 vs 8 decks when the shoes are fresh and gave one answer. (0.083%?)


The other kind of analysis (upon which Bill Ryan's reference to a CSM is based) is a simulation of a depleted shoe that also takes into account that lots of low cards coming out is correlated with getting fewer hands dealt to you before the cut card is reached. This effect is unfavorable to the player because he gets less hands dealt when the shoe is favorable. This effect is worse for shoes with more decks, but more and more decks does not extrapolate to the infinite deck solution because infinite deck models miss this effect entirely.

I think BillRyan's objection is well founded. The actual difference between 4 and 8 deck shoes is less than 0.083%.
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unJon
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July 23rd, 2021 at 6:17:53 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

One person apparently looked at 4 vs 8 decks when the shoes are fresh and gave one answer. (0.083%?)


The other kind of analysis (upon which Bill Ryan's reference to a CSM is based) is a simulation of a depleted shoe that also takes into account that lots of low cards coming out is correlated with getting fewer hands dealt to you before the cut card is reached. This effect is unfavorable to the player because he gets less hands dealt when the shoe is favorable. This effect is worse for shoes with more decks, but more and more decks does not extrapolate to the infinite deck solution because infinite deck models miss this effect entirely.

I think BillRyan's objection is well founded. The actual difference between 4 and 8 deck shoes is less than 0.083%.



This is interesting. You say the cut card effect gets worse as decks increase? You think it’s monotonic as decks approach infinity then drops to zero? I have trouble fathoming that. Though also lack the ability to sim it out.
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July 24th, 2021 at 6:48:30 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

...lots of low cards coming out is correlated with getting fewer hands dealt to you before the cut card is reached....

With a cut card one issue comes from having to play later hands in any shoes which had a lot of high cards early in the shoe. When I looked at the EV of various hands within a shoe, what happens is most shoes act normally. However occasionally a shoe has more hands than normal and the hands in those shoes towards the end have a worse EV than average. So for instance you might have a regular EV for hands 1 thru 80, but hands 81-90, being worse, bring the average EV down. It's marginal but detectible through simulations.
100000Challenge
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July 24th, 2021 at 5:21:32 PM permalink
I imagine some grinder has done the math before on this problem.

Supposedly you can make money off of grinding CSM BJ as long as there are other positive factors in your advantage.
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July 24th, 2021 at 5:54:30 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

With a cut card one issue comes from having to play later hands in any shoes which had a lot of high cards early in the shoe. When I looked at the EV of various hands within a shoe, what happens is most shoes act normally. However, occasionally a shoe has more hands than normal and the hands in those shoes towards the end have a worse EV than average.



I strongly disagree with this theory that a shoe that has more hands played than normal that towards the end of those shoes will have a worse EV than average. A shoe could just as easily start off early with the true count rising, "of course with much more low cards played" However, for this same shoe to end with more hands played than normally "as you stated" it is more factual that the true count will be dropping, "and possibly even go negative" at the best time possible, in the later percentages of the shoe. Otherwise, you would not get more hands played in those shoes than normal.

Quote: charliepatrick



So for instance you might have a regular EV for hands 1 thru 80, but hands 81-90, being worse, bring the average EV down. It's marginal but detectible through simulations.



If as in the "for instance" example that you gave in a shoe with more hands played in it than normal that these hands played 1 through 80 came out at regular EV the only logical way to reach more hands played than normal is for the remaining hands played to be excessive in high cards. Obviously good for the player.
Last edited by: BoSox on Jul 24, 2021
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July 25th, 2021 at 12:06:53 AM permalink
On the Wizards rules variation page (https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/rule-variations/) he states that going from 8 decks to 4 decks is worth .06% towards the player. So if the average house edge off the top is near .5%, this would take you to ~.44%. Not much of a difference. Not an "advantage play."
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July 25th, 2021 at 6:56:37 AM permalink
Is there a four deck game in Vegas? I knew of one nearby, in Searchlight, but it went away.
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July 25th, 2021 at 4:49:12 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

This is interesting. You say the cut card effect gets worse as decks increase? You think it’s monotonic as decks approach infinity then drops to zero? I have trouble fathoming that. Though also lack the ability to sim it out.



Well, that's an interesting objection. I'm probably wrong in claiming that the cut card effect is worse as the number of decks in a shoe increases.

I do remember playing single deck at tables where we would usually get a second deal before the reshuffle. Occasionally we would get a first deal where large quantities of low cards came out - and then we would not get a second deal. That was a very severe "cut card" effect, maybe worse than anything you would see with 4,6 or 8 decks.
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