Which is most likely to happen?
Assign probabilities to winning and losing such as 0.49 and 0.51 while ignoring pushes for this rough model. Next work out the bell curve distribution over infinite trials. You are interested in discovering and measuring those portions of the distribution which are five or more steps away from the zero mean.
Quote: pwcrabbRough figures can be useful.
Assign probabilities to winning and losing such as 0.49 and 0.51 while ignoring pushes for this rough model. Next work out the bell curve distribution over infinite trials. You are interested in discovering and measuring those portions of the distribution which are five or more steps away from the zero mean.
Yes that's what I'm getting at, just not got enough math brains for that to work it out myself!
Quote: pepperedterrorTrue, I would allow for potentially losing extra units as required in order to play perfect strategy. I usually only play one seat though so wouldn't ever need 8 units in one round
It's rare but it does happen.
Finger in the air for a low edge game...Oncedear's rule of thumbQuote: pepperedterrorHi there, new member here. When playing blackjack, I like to play short sessions flat betting until I am either up or down 5 stake units. Assuming perfect strategy, is there a way to calculate the % chance of either event occurring first (being up 5 units or down 5 units)? I guess this likely depends on rule variations which affect how likely you are to win or lose a single hand. But just looking for a rough figure if anyone can help!
Blackjack rules mess you up a bit in that you will struggle to eliminate the chance that your final hand needs a split or double or is a blackjack. If you face the inability to play basic strategy, you increase the house edge.
I like to do something similar, taking 400 to the table with the objective of leaving with zero or 450.... I make my 50 profit roughly 400/450=88% of the time. When I fail, I don't mention it $:o)
Only reporting when I succeed
As an easy example.... let’s say you are up 4.5 units..... are you allowed now to just bet 1/2 a unit?
If you are up 4 units and have an 11 versus a 7, under normal circumstances you would obviously double. But NOT if your goal is +5 and +6 is the ‘same’ as plus 5.
But.... with ‘regular’ rules, I’d guess you make it to plus 5 47% of the time and -5 53%. Not that there is any real relevance to the accurate answer.
Quote: pepperedterrorTrue, I would allow for potentially losing extra units as required in order to play perfect strategy. I usually only play one seat though so wouldn't ever need 8 units in one round
1seat 1hand split to 4 double each =8
(i) https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/variance/
(ii) https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/blackjack/probability/
Quote: SOOPOOIf you want an exact answer you need to let us know exactly what the rules of the game you are playing. And if you are allowed to vary your bet at all. Is winning 5.5 units the same as winning 5 units? Etc.....
As an easy example.... let’s say you are up 4.5 units..... are you allowed now to just bet 1/2 a unit?
If you are up 4 units and have an 11 versus a 7, under normal circumstances you would obviously double. But NOT if your goal is +5 and +6 is the ‘same’ as plus 5.
But.... with ‘regular’ rules, I’d guess you make it to plus 5 47% of the time and -5 53%. Not that there is any real relevance to the accurate answer.
Hi thanks for replying.
If up 4.5 units I may just bet a half unit to give myself an extra shot at reaching +5.
If I had a double down / split situation I would still follow the correct strategy though. So I would consider +6 or -6 the same in those situations.
Thanks for the estimate of 47%/53%; that's the kind of answer I was looking for.
Quote: rainman1seat 1hand split to 4 double each =8
Hi I most often play online with rules of no resplitting and sometimes no double after split
