KewlJ, question on your barring at the BJTF
July 16th, 2021 at 7:47:36 PM
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It doesnt matter to me. Covid made me civilized. I no longer have that eye of the tiger to learn another way to play the game.
I will do what I do for the pennies I "work" to get here.
$2 mil in 10 years sounds great. Breaking even or losing sounds horrible. I always thought I had one more good run in me. But maybe not.
I will do what I do for the pennies I "work" to get here.
$2 mil in 10 years sounds great. Breaking even or losing sounds horrible. I always thought I had one more good run in me. But maybe not.
July 17th, 2021 at 7:06:40 AM
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Heads up the average number of dealer cards per round is 2.78.
Average player cards is 2.71
Combined = 5.49
8 deck shoe with 1 deck cutoff = 364 cards played
364/5.49 = 66 rounds heads up
There are MANY MANY MANY places on the LV strip where a $450 bet stays under the radar. You may not comprehend this because you know xxxx all about counting and blackjack, but I assure you it's true. Stay under purple = A-OK.
So a 20k losing shoe at $450 bets is losing 44 units in 66 rounds.
There are some questionable facts in your statement.
In single deck, 12 small cards would have to come out before just 1 large card to warrant a max bet. THAT has never happened. So in 8 decks, 96 would be the equivelant. Thus how did you get 66 max bets out of one shoe?
You lost $20k in 44 hands at $450 per hand (19,800). What happened to the other 22 rounds? Did you push? If so, 20k means you went 0-44 on large bets in the shoe. In spite of all the cuss words. Hard to believe? Most definately.
Average player cards is 2.71
Combined = 5.49
8 deck shoe with 1 deck cutoff = 364 cards played
364/5.49 = 66 rounds heads up
There are MANY MANY MANY places on the LV strip where a $450 bet stays under the radar. You may not comprehend this because you know xxxx all about counting and blackjack, but I assure you it's true. Stay under purple = A-OK.
So a 20k losing shoe at $450 bets is losing 44 units in 66 rounds.
There are some questionable facts in your statement.
In single deck, 12 small cards would have to come out before just 1 large card to warrant a max bet. THAT has never happened. So in 8 decks, 96 would be the equivelant. Thus how did you get 66 max bets out of one shoe?
You lost $20k in 44 hands at $450 per hand (19,800). What happened to the other 22 rounds? Did you push? If so, 20k means you went 0-44 on large bets in the shoe. In spite of all the cuss words. Hard to believe? Most definately.
July 17th, 2021 at 8:59:00 AM
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The attempt to discredit KJ.
Quote from Kewlj Jan. 15 2018 :
was actually a very credible post by KJ IMO.
I see more volatility than necessary. Drop the 2. Count the 5 as 2. This move does not affect your cancel out process. Which is far better than anything I read at BJTF in a recent thread.
The one litle move will identify a deck composition rich in 10,A but also more depletion of 5's. Counting the 2 the same as 5 creates too many high TC's with poor deck compositions.
The rotation of casinos speaks to quality hands without giving up too much in quantity. So the question of your credibility comes into play. You cant answer without exposing yourself.
There is always, always, always a reason to sit down to play and get up a leave. My guess is KJ has this mastered and down to a science.
Problem is it leaves a newbie and his adversaries hanging.
As Mission 146/Sony and Cher put it. The beat goes on. goes on and on and on.
Quote from Kewlj Jan. 15 2018 :
was actually a very credible post by KJ IMO.
I see more volatility than necessary. Drop the 2. Count the 5 as 2. This move does not affect your cancel out process. Which is far better than anything I read at BJTF in a recent thread.
The one litle move will identify a deck composition rich in 10,A but also more depletion of 5's. Counting the 2 the same as 5 creates too many high TC's with poor deck compositions.
The rotation of casinos speaks to quality hands without giving up too much in quantity. So the question of your credibility comes into play. You cant answer without exposing yourself.
There is always, always, always a reason to sit down to play and get up a leave. My guess is KJ has this mastered and down to a science.
Problem is it leaves a newbie and his adversaries hanging.
As Mission 146/Sony and Cher put it. The beat goes on. goes on and on and on.
Last edited by: moses on Jul 17, 2021
July 17th, 2021 at 10:07:06 AM
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Let's DO the math as they say.
KJ has had one $20k shoe in 10 years. He plays 225 days annually average. So this happened once in 2,225 days of playing in a casino.
Wait. He rotates 6 casinos per day. So this shoe was once in 13,350 casinos.
Wait. He plays 2 shoes on average per casino. That is one shoe in 26,700. 😲
Forum rhetoric or irrelevant chatter? Take your pick.
KJ has had one $20k shoe in 10 years. He plays 225 days annually average. So this happened once in 2,225 days of playing in a casino.
Wait. He rotates 6 casinos per day. So this shoe was once in 13,350 casinos.
Wait. He plays 2 shoes on average per casino. That is one shoe in 26,700. 😲
Forum rhetoric or irrelevant chatter? Take your pick.
July 17th, 2021 at 10:57:14 AM
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So for the Sally Struthers "save our newbie" foundation. Wont you please play and pay the KJ way?. Here is what it's going to take.
You will need to average $400 to $500 in profits per day to reach 100k annually. For every $2k lost day, you will need no make $2800 to $3,000. Between 200 and 250 days with a spread of $25 to $300.
...before I list my house. It would have to be double these figures each year, for the next 10 straight years, to make it worth my while.
However, legions of AP's are already doing this and more.🤔
In Vegas. No?
You will need to average $400 to $500 in profits per day to reach 100k annually. For every $2k lost day, you will need no make $2800 to $3,000. Between 200 and 250 days with a spread of $25 to $300.
...before I list my house. It would have to be double these figures each year, for the next 10 straight years, to make it worth my while.
However, legions of AP's are already doing this and more.🤔
In Vegas. No?
July 17th, 2021 at 2:58:47 PM
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Im only going based on numbers qouted in that thread. Officiating, if you will. I haven't taken anyones side.
Whether it's 1 deck, 6 decks, or 22 decks. The income remains the same.
Now Takwonda or whatever invited anyone to speak to thread. Since that is not a blackjack forun, most cannot speak to it.
KJ didnt say he makes $100k a year in this thread. I said if that is what someone wants to make that is what they will have to do. Actually Im defending him. Certainly more than his Supremes. The purpose is resolution once and for all. This has gone on for at least 8 years on how many forums?
Whether it's 1 deck, 6 decks, or 22 decks. The income remains the same.
Now Takwonda or whatever invited anyone to speak to thread. Since that is not a blackjack forun, most cannot speak to it.
KJ didnt say he makes $100k a year in this thread. I said if that is what someone wants to make that is what they will have to do. Actually Im defending him. Certainly more than his Supremes. The purpose is resolution once and for all. This has gone on for at least 8 years on how many forums?
July 17th, 2021 at 3:42:05 PM
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Is there another side of a conversation that isn't showing up here?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
July 17th, 2021 at 4:54:20 PM
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Same monkee. Same football. Same result as a kazillion times before.
July 17th, 2021 at 5:57:03 PM
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Redietz. Im right here. Firstly, all Ive done is speak to the numbers listed in that thread. Simple multiplecation or division.
The guy says he lost 44 max at $450 out of 66 in an 8 deck shoe. 44x$450 = $19,800. So Im wondering what happened to the other 22 hands. How did he get to a max bet so quickly? Did he go 0-44? 1-45? 10-54?
In one post KJ says his spread is $25 to $300. Later he says it's $25 to $500. A 1 to 20 spread is bound to get some heat. No? Which is it?
Now if it's my credibilty you want to attack. Im right here. Not hiding from anyone. If it's my blackjack playing ability. Come on up and you be the house.
The guy says he lost 44 max at $450 out of 66 in an 8 deck shoe. 44x$450 = $19,800. So Im wondering what happened to the other 22 hands. How did he get to a max bet so quickly? Did he go 0-44? 1-45? 10-54?
In one post KJ says his spread is $25 to $300. Later he says it's $25 to $500. A 1 to 20 spread is bound to get some heat. No? Which is it?
Now if it's my credibilty you want to attack. Im right here. Not hiding from anyone. If it's my blackjack playing ability. Come on up and you be the house.
Last edited by: moses on Jul 17, 2021
July 17th, 2021 at 6:28:06 PM
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Quote: mosesHeads up the average number of dealer cards per round is 2.78.
Average player cards is 2.71
Combined = 5.49
In single deck, 12 small cards would have to come out before just 1 large card to warrant a max bet.
Moses, I don’t know if you are saying this or if you are quoting someone.
But you need 12 small cards versus 1 big card for a max bet on single deck? That can’t be right
Happy days are here again
July 17th, 2021 at 6:44:53 PM
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Quote: HunterhillMoses, I don’t know if you are saying this or if you are quoting someone.
But you need 12 small cards versus 1 big card for a max bet on single deck? That can’t be right
HH. Based on a 48 card count. The 8 is silent. You can assign tag value to each side. But you end up with 24 large and 24 small card. If 12 small come out at the beginning of the deck, there are 67% large remaining and 33% small. Firstly, that never happens. A 67%/33% ratio occurs maybe 1.3%. This would warrant a Max bet.
Now, 8 small come out? Also, very very rare. But your ratio is 60%-40%. But this overall ratio will occur about 6%. This is when you push the bet to casino tolerance and where the game is won.
Strong deck compositions usually do not happen until after the 20th card is dealt.
Last edited by: moses on Jul 17, 2021
July 17th, 2021 at 7:12:34 PM
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Quote: mosesHH. Based on a 48 card count. The 8 is silent. You can assign tag value to each side. But you end up with 24 large and 24 small card. If 12 small come out at the beginning of the deck, there are 67% large remaining and 33% small. Firstly, that never happens. A 67%/33% ratio occurs maybe 1.3%. This would warrant a Max bet.
Now, 8 small come out? Also, very very rare. But your ratio is 60%-40%. But this overall ratio will occur about 6%. This is when you push the bet to casino tolerance and where the game is won.
Strong deck compositions usually do not happen until after the 20th card is dealt.
Moses anyone using a regular counting system not your column count would have their max bet out by a true plus 5 or 6 if using hi low as an example.
Happy days are here again
July 17th, 2021 at 7:24:02 PM
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Quote: HunterhillMoses anyone using a regular counting system not your column count would have their max bet out by a true plus 5 or 6 if using hi low as an example.
Hunter my TC at 67%/33% runs betwen 3.7 and 4. That is quarter deck floored with Exact calculation. 1/2 point box checked.
60% to 65% runs 2.25 to 3.6. 59% is 2 to 2.25 and requires a little more strategy.
July 17th, 2021 at 7:27:42 PM
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So how many hands would it take from the beginning of an 8 deck shoe heada up to get a HiLO TC 5?
July 17th, 2021 at 7:38:57 PM
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I don’t know how many hands it would take but if after one deck had been played you would need a running count of 35 to have a 5 true count.Quote: mosesSo how many hands would it take from the beginning of an 8 deck shoe heada up to get a HiLO TC 5?
Happy days are here again
July 17th, 2021 at 7:59:45 PM
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Quote: HunterhillI don’t know how many hands it would take but if after one deck had been played you would need a running count of 35 to have a 5 true count.
Okay. One deck is removed. According to Jwoo post 66 hands are played over the remain 5 decks? About 13 rounds per deck.
RC 35 seems extreme after 52 cards. So he lost 44 rounds at $450 max bet to get to -19800. That doesnt account for 9 hands and still assumes he went 0-44. Extremely unlikely. No?
Point is, it's an interesting thread IF you eliminate the vulgarity and chest puffing. He totally ripped the guy. If words were fists he'd be up on assualt charges.
Now Ive played more single deck hands than anyone in the last decade. I ran so many sims they call me Phil. Ive studied thousands of charts in those sims. Ive converted a column count to a conventional count which they said couldnt be done.
...And I dont understand his math either.
But if I go 0-44 on max bets. Maybe, just maybe that is a signal ones game needs some work. No?
Last edited by: moses on Jul 17, 2021
July 17th, 2021 at 8:55:50 PM
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Quote: billryanIs there another side of a conversation that isn't showing up here?
KJ writes:
And finally...there is a learning process involved with heat and backoff. My first few years I would get a backoffed off 7-10 times a year. then it dropped to 4-7 or so and now it is 2-3. You just learn to read people and see when your play has crossed over the comfort level before a backoff happens. Again, this is all about short sessions, playing limits that are well tolerated and accepted and not overplaying any casino, and personnel.
Now this is a biggie IMO. Are casinos really that misinformed and lenient in Vegas? A backoff for me was anywhere from a handshake and goodbye to a "get out, you're done" holler from the pit.
If I did go back it never went well. These folks have the memory of an elephant.
Really, they ask you to leave this often? And you go back without conflict or recourse in a few months?
July 18th, 2021 at 10:33:04 AM
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A backoff is often the most humiliating, demeaning, embarrassing, and confusing moment in a blackjack players career.
The perception of others is that you are just shy of being a criminal. And for what? We used our brain and broke some unwritten rules.
I think it was after my 3rd backoff, that I knew my game had to change. My choices were to play within the confines of casino tolerances or find something else to do and somewhere else to live.
This is when I sought out and found Norm's products. August 2013.
Now KJ was backed off too many times to count. And yet went back and still plays today. I would've been tared and feathered.
The perception of others is that you are just shy of being a criminal. And for what? We used our brain and broke some unwritten rules.
I think it was after my 3rd backoff, that I knew my game had to change. My choices were to play within the confines of casino tolerances or find something else to do and somewhere else to live.
This is when I sought out and found Norm's products. August 2013.
Now KJ was backed off too many times to count. And yet went back and still plays today. I would've been tared and feathered.
July 18th, 2021 at 10:39:29 AM
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The $450 max bet x 44 hands post was by someone other than KJ. Unless that was a puppet.
No my purpose isnt to "hammer" KJ. I only used the numbers provided in that thread. It has nothing to do with what I did in Reno.
It has everything to do with listing my house and moving to Vegas.
No my purpose isnt to "hammer" KJ. I only used the numbers provided in that thread. It has nothing to do with what I did in Reno.
It has everything to do with listing my house and moving to Vegas.
July 18th, 2021 at 10:55:10 AM
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KJ writes;
There are other things he says (even yesterday) that are bonkers like winning 60% of his max bets. But I really don't want to get into all that again.
It's really very simple. But one would need to dig deep into CV Data which you clearly have never done. Now, it's possible to win 60% of large bets and have a volatile game not worthwhile.
But no, you will never achieve that or anything close with HILO.
All I know to say is "come on up and you be the house." Ive done my homework.
As for rules. Im not aware of any rules Im breaking at WOV? I havent used profanity. Only ask questions. I thought this was a forum with several blackjack players.
Have I done something worse than MDawg?. Sorry, I didnt read those posts. But KJ was all fired up about it.
There are at least two forums with threads dedicated to WOV concerns. Boy lemme tell ya, they are whoppers. WOV did an extensive interview with KJ back in the day.
There are other things he says (even yesterday) that are bonkers like winning 60% of his max bets. But I really don't want to get into all that again.
It's really very simple. But one would need to dig deep into CV Data which you clearly have never done. Now, it's possible to win 60% of large bets and have a volatile game not worthwhile.
But no, you will never achieve that or anything close with HILO.
All I know to say is "come on up and you be the house." Ive done my homework.
As for rules. Im not aware of any rules Im breaking at WOV? I havent used profanity. Only ask questions. I thought this was a forum with several blackjack players.
Have I done something worse than MDawg?. Sorry, I didnt read those posts. But KJ was all fired up about it.
There are at least two forums with threads dedicated to WOV concerns. Boy lemme tell ya, they are whoppers. WOV did an extensive interview with KJ back in the day.
Last edited by: moses on Jul 18, 2021
July 18th, 2021 at 11:29:17 AM
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KJ. Please Go back and read post 10. By jdoewoo. He invited anyone on that forum to a challenge. Well, that isnt a blackjack forum.
I ask legit questions based on figures posted in that thread. Every thread there turns into a profanity laced chest puffing contest. It's like watching a game that never ends and no score is posted.
Then you have DanDuff who treats it like MMA but gets all offended when a fight breaks out.
I ask legit questions based on figures posted in that thread. Every thread there turns into a profanity laced chest puffing contest. It's like watching a game that never ends and no score is posted.
Then you have DanDuff who treats it like MMA but gets all offended when a fight breaks out.
July 18th, 2021 at 1:05:27 PM
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KJ writes: And now I am going to respond directly to Moses. I don't know what you are doing in reno, or how you have survived, but do not sell your house and move to Vegas. Anything you might be doing that works will NOT translate to Las vegas and Vegas will eat you alive.
It would be like Rocky III. I would have to change. Reno isnt about how hard you can swat as it is about how well you can duck.
I would come in with a very simple Level 2 count. There is always a reason to sit down to play and a reason to get up and leave. Once that is determined then Norm's products combined with hard work will prepare me for whatever comes next.
Believe it or not there was a time I was a very aggressive player. But the swings bothered the opposition far more than me.
It would be like Rocky III. I would have to change. Reno isnt about how hard you can swat as it is about how well you can duck.
I would come in with a very simple Level 2 count. There is always a reason to sit down to play and a reason to get up and leave. Once that is determined then Norm's products combined with hard work will prepare me for whatever comes next.
Believe it or not there was a time I was a very aggressive player. But the swings bothered the opposition far more than me.
July 18th, 2021 at 6:26:04 PM
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Quote: mosesAnd now I am going to respond directly to Moses.
July 18th, 2021 at 6:44:07 PM
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Quote: heatmap
Post of the year
July 19th, 2021 at 10:04:38 AM
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Easily amused. I bet you pee your pants in a comedy club.😲Quote: tyler498Post of the year
Anyway Bosox. Im only speaking to the figures posted in that thread. You stated losing 30 to 40 max bets in a 6 deck shoe.
Yes, a wee bit hard to fathom. Does Tarzan lose that many max bets?
Also, KJ states he likes it when a shoe starts early with max bets. I prefer later in single deck . And it usually comes after card 20 most of the time. Logic being, the card cant hurt you if it no longer exists.
If Im going to lug around $20k? Id better get a wardrobe with lots of pockets....and a club.😉
Good to see you posting. I now know you're okay.
July 19th, 2021 at 10:20:14 AM
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Moses is apparently importing drama from another forum. Which is impermissible. He is also importing what a suspended member has to say, which some of my supporters have been threatened with suspension for doing that allegedly during periods when I was suspended. Moses has been a member long enough to know not to do that.
In any case, Moses, where the whole story falls apart is that if someone is trying to play under the radar anonymously and refusing to identify himself he cannot be buying in over 10K at the table, which means that such a player must be either playing for peanuts or never buying in over 10K / 24 hours.
Or, if such a player is trying to cash in or out with repeated smaller transactions under 10K, including spreading the play out over various tables or casinos (or days), to avoid reporting requirements, he is potentially guilty of structuring and possibly committing a federal crime daily.
In any case, Moses, where the whole story falls apart is that if someone is trying to play under the radar anonymously and refusing to identify himself he cannot be buying in over 10K at the table, which means that such a player must be either playing for peanuts or never buying in over 10K / 24 hours.
Or, if such a player is trying to cash in or out with repeated smaller transactions under 10K, including spreading the play out over various tables or casinos (or days), to avoid reporting requirements, he is potentially guilty of structuring and possibly committing a federal crime daily.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
July 19th, 2021 at 10:28:30 AM
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Quote: MDawgMoses is apparently importing drama from another forum. Which is impermissible. He is also importing what a suspended member has to say, which some of my supporters have been threatened with suspension for doing that allegedly during periods when I was suspended. Moses has been a member long enough to know not to do that.
In any case, Moses, where the whole story falls apart is that if someone is trying to play under the radar anonymously and refusing to identify himself he cannot be buying in over 10K at the table, which means that such a player must be either playing for peanuts or never buying in over 10K / 24 hours.
Sorry Mdawg. I didnt know I was breaking any rules. I thought you were the rule breaker.😉
The thread is a about blackjack. But one must sift through all the profanity and chest puffing in order to make sense of it.
I didnt know anyone was suspended. I thought KJ simply doesnt want to post here. I could be wrong? Others write about me who are perfectly capable of addressing me here. I dont know why they dont. I guess you'd have to ask them.😊
July 19th, 2021 at 12:22:59 PM
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MDawg raises an interesting point. This thread was started way back in March, about 3 months before KJ's suspension.Quote: MDawgMoses is apparently importing drama from another forum. Which is impermissible. He is also importing what a suspended member has to say, which some of my supporters have been threatened with suspension for doing that allegedly during periods when I was suspended. Moses has been a member long enough to know not to do that.
I'd never seen any issue with the thread, and I don't really see an issue now. I'll remind Moses that KJ isn't currently in a position to reply here and it looks like the thread has moved in a new direction, discussing structuring.
So, let's tidy up, by closing this thread, which has served its purpose. No penalty to anyone.
I'll move some posts to a new thread about structuring.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
July 19th, 2021 at 12:28:15 PM
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Quote: OnceDearMDawg raises an interesting point. This thread was started way back in March, about 3 months before KJ's suspension.
I'd never seen any issue with the thread, and I don't really see an issue now. I'll remind Moses that KJ isn't currently in a position to reply here and it looks like the thread has moved in a new direction, discussing structuring.
So, let's tidy up, by closing this thread, which has served its purpose. No penalty to anyone.
I'll move some posts to a new thread about structuring.
Fair enough. My bad.
