KewlJ, question on your barring at the BJTF
Quote: BoSoxOne time TThree and I went back and forth for like four days and Norm got upset with the both of us and gave us each either a five or seven-day suspension to cool down. Now I know that you like to help the newer players out but my goodness just how the hell did you get barred for one hundred and seventy-seven years? It.s' boggling.
I am not really sure what you are referencing with the 177 years, but it sounds like a question better suited for someone else wo might be able to answer. :/
It's been a tough year...but you're still awnry.😄
Look at the bright side KJ. You know how to celebrate your 215th birthday.😊😎
Quote: mosesBosox, Bosox, Bosox. How the heck are you?
It's been a tough year...but you're still awnry.😄
Look at the bright side KJ. You know how to celebrate your 215th birthday.😊😎
Hi moses, it has been a while. I am doing okay, I hope that things are well with you? Right now I am in the process of learning how to cook. I learned how to crack open an egg without breaking the yoke.
Quote: kewljI am not really sure what you are referencing with the 177 years, but it sounds like a question better suited for someone else wo might be able to answer. :/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaW0M6V85j8
That goes for you to Spiderman
Quote: BoSoxHi moses, it has been a while. I am doing okay, I hope that things are well with you? Right now I am in the process of learning how to cook. I learned how to crack open an egg without breaking the yoke.
Good for you. Always good to learn new things. Thats one more thing than I can do.
Maybe you reached your goal of getting the world to play HILO.
Quote: mosesKJ mentioned the other day that no one talks blackjack any more. He is right. Sort of odd because some casinos are as busy as ever. Of course others or dead or gone. I wonder if the same trend will be in Vegas and other places.
Maybe you reached your goal of getting the world to play HILO.
At some point, what is there to talk about? I used to wait thirty days or so when talking about a specific event, to protect my cover even if my bets kept me under the radar except for places like the Big Horn. If somehow I were to stumble on some great conditions or a beatable side bet, I certainly wouldn't discuss it here.
Does anyone really care if I started a hand with one $25 bet but the cards flowed so I ended up with four $50 bets and either won or lost them all.
Loose lips can interfere with The Sacred Flow of the Cads, and that is something none of us want.
Quote: BoSoxhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaW0M6V85j8
That goes for you to Spiderman
That last line was NOT my quote.
Quote: billryanAt some point, what is there to talk about?
Baccarat?
Quote: mcallister3200Baccarat?
Or Dawgs. 🤔 It's got me worried sick.🤕
Quote: mosesHow is the return going KJ and Bosox?
I expect to be starting up again next week since I have had two covid shots now.
Interesting dialog about player(s) making an extremely good living playing blackjack at the expense of these casinos in Vegas.
The math doesnt quite add up. If a person was backed off 5 to 7 times a year in the first few years and then once or twice a year thereafter, where is there left to play? Isnt there about 40 to 45 casinos that offer the game in Vegas?
Suppose another 50 players a year learn and enjoy the same success so effortlessly. Can you see where Im going with this?
That's another $5 million annually.
Rules get worse and pen gets ahortened and heat goes up. and more decks are added while we are expected to believe it helps the player. What is the benefit in telling anyone?
Quote: unJonMoses, why are you having a one sided conversation here rather than going there to respond?
Good question. I think it's worthwhile discussion. Im banned from that "sight" and have no intention of returning. Bosox is a very knowledgeable player.
IF he decides to provide a response. I think you will agree.
Quote: mosesConsider the number of books written, seminars given, and newbie helpers on forums. A conservative number would be 100 players are making $100k annually in Vegas. That's $10 mlllion a year being taken right out from under pit bosses noses. Forum rhetoric suggests it's far more...maybe 1000 players.
Suppose another 50 players a year learn and enjoy the same success so effortlessly. Can you see where Im going with this?
That's another $5 million annually.
Rules get worse and pen gets ahortened and heat goes up. and more decks are added while we are expected to believe it helps the player. What is the benefit in telling anyone?
Moses, you are right in that this is a good topic for discussion. I have no idea just how many actual blackjack players are making a 100K annually in Vegas but when one person goes all around the internet letting everyone know he is a professional player and what is realistically possible for annual expectations of earnings among blackjack players is in my mind disturbing, to say the least. Moses you and I have been been on the same points of agreement pertaining to this issue for years now. Bottom line is that casinos hate long term winners, when you combine that with some people "including a professional player" talking over the internet about personal successes as well as what amounts of money one could realistically make annually is missing the bigger picture.
Quote: BoSoxI have no idea just how many actual blackjack players are making a 100K annually in Vegas but when one person goes all around the internet letting everyone know he is a professional player and what is realistically possible for annual expectations of earnings among blackjack players is in my mind is disturbing, to say the least. Moses you and I have been been on the same points of agreement pertaining to this issue for years now. Bottom line is that casinos hate winners, when you combine that with some people "including a professional player" talking over the internet about personal successes as well as what amounts of money one could realistically make annually is missing the bigger picture.
Bosox: I respect your opinion but strongly disagree
a few points:
1. this individual has been doing this for many years and I have followed him and according to his journaling the quality of the games he gets has not deteriorated
2. in my mind his journaling is the very best depiction of what a BJ player betting in that range can expect. there is nothing else approaching it in this regard. it is potentially enormously helpful to newbies. many want to help newbies, including you - as you have posted much about the game in various places
3. casino execs are not stupid - they know that for various reasons - that overall, players similar to this will not hurt their bottom line
4. the reasons for this: this old saying carries much truth:........... 𝘢 𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘭𝘦𝘥𝘨𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘢 𝘥𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨
I'm going to oversimplify here - and the figures that I'm quoting are not meant to be exact, but are meant to be representative of what I believe:
for every newbie who comes into the game and makes $100K per year 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘣𝘦 8 𝘸𝘢𝘯𝘯𝘢𝘣𝘦𝘦𝘴 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘦 $20𝘒 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘨𝘢𝘮𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘷𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘰𝘯𝘴
the most common reason being that they start playing while they are undercapitalized
*
Quote: AlanMendelsonI was never a blackjack player but I've noticed that few blackjack tables remain. The blackjack space phad been converted to new table games and to machines.
Interesting observation. The game has not deteriorated?
Other than some guy in the Great NW, there is a reason someone sits down to play and gets up to leave. There is a constant action and reaction during play. Of all the reading, this has never been clearly defined. So, if Im going to do it, these answers should be cemented before I go. No?
Quote: moses
The math doesnt quite add up. If a person was backed off 5 to 7 times a year in the first few years and then once or twice a year thereafter, where is there left to play? Isnt there about 40 to 45 casinos that offer the game in Vegas?
Ive returned from backoffs after 6 months with a completely differrent set of personell. I found myself surrounded in very short order.
As Ron White says, "Im not sure how many it was going take, but Im certain they were going to use the number necessary."
So, in Vegas, all is forgiven if you go back in 3 months and play nice(r)? 🤔 Sounds good to me.🤗
Quote: lilredroosterBosox: I respect your opinion but strongly disagree
a few points:
1. this individual has been doing this for many years and I have followed him and according to his journaling the quality of the games he gets has not deteriorated
2. in my mind his journaling is the very best depiction of what a BJ player betting in that range can expect. there is nothing else approaching it in this regard. it is potentially enormously helpful to newbies. many want to help newbies, including you - as you have posted much about the game in various places
3. casino execs are not stupid - they know that for various reasons - that overall, players similar to this will not hurt their bottom line
4. the reasons for this: this old saying carries much truth:........... 𝘢 𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘭𝘦𝘥𝘨𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘢 𝘥𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨
I'm going to oversimplify here - and the figures that I'm quoting are not meant to be exact, but are meant to be representative of what I believe:
for every newbie who comes into the game and makes $100K per year 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘣𝘦 8 𝘸𝘢𝘯𝘯𝘢𝘣𝘦𝘦𝘴 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘦 $20𝘒 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘨𝘢𝘮𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘷𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘰𝘯𝘴
the most common reason being that they start playing while they are undercapitalized
*
lilredrooster, in reply to your opinions I will give my own thoughts.
Regarding #1
The quality of games has indeed changed considerably over the years, and can also be done in subtle ways. Such as changing table minimums that may have been $10 in pits can often be seen at $25. What do you think that does to the new counters many starting out with small bankrolls? Regarding rule change differences you will now often find more H17 tables now that were not in previous years. Possibly the elimination of late surrender. Those two changes in table rules are significant.
#2
Yes I have also been giving the new counters my own advice for years and the best depiction of what new counters can expect in reality I always refer them to the work of Don Schlesinger specifically chapters 9 and 10 that I strongly believe in, along with hard work.
What good does telling a beginner what she/ he can earn annually from a Pro's perspective when a majority of them are not even playing a break-even game at that point in time. I call it false hopes and dreams for new players who are asking all the wrong questions.
Combining #3 and #4
A few counters do not hurt the casino's bottom lines the problem is that their management teams do not believe that true depiction.
Yes, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, that cleans out hundreds of new counters, but the casino's still want to close all the loose ends.
Regarding your last point:
Of course, the failures of the majority will make up more than enough money to cover the few that succeed, however, no logical cost or effort will ever stop the casino's attempts to eliminate that minuscule small percentage
that beat the odds, it's all a matter of principle to them.
So that said, I can't not respond (double negative) to comments about me in a thread with my name. Lol.
So thanks to lilredrooster for his kind comments about my participation. What he described is EXACTLY what I intended my participation and sharing my experiences to be.
When my career began the movie '21' had just come out with visions of hundred k wins in short periods of time and hiding half million in the ceilings of dorm rooms. More recently you have KC's video of high stakes play traveling the country making 4-5 hundred k over 6 months before burning out everywhere.
These high profile, high limit, short term, "burn all bridges" style is not representative of long term professional play which is a grind. So I wanted to share some of my experiences doing just that. And that includes what kind of money is really realistic from card counting with an eye towards longevity.
And I have shared that right down to the bad variance runs of weeks and months at a time...right down to several bad years way below expectation, the most recent last year. No other player has shared so accurately as to paint such an accurate picture and I am proud of that.
I am aware that there are several players like Bosox and I guess Moses that don't appreciate me doing that. Too bad! My sharing some of my journey and experiences effects only me. It is me that is put at any jeopardy. This idea that me sharing what I share worsens conditions is baloney.
Quote: mcallister3200Hi 🙋♀️ Kewlj. Even if your posting would have a very minor effect on conditions, which I don’t believe, Blackjack Apprenticeship would be at least a million times worse as far as that is concerned.
Thanks M3200. Vegas, my home base is a special place. Management and pit folk are well aware of what takes place as it has been going on for decades. Nothing new here. We play the cat and mouse game and I have come to believe and I think I have proven that card counters and casinos can co-exist. The key is finding and playing betting levels and styles of play that are better tolerated. That means short sessions at limits that are tolerated which are less likely to result in those really big wins that pit folks have to answer for. That is what creates problems and those problems are passed down to the player in the form of heat and backoffs. You avoid problems at the start of the chain and there is nothing to pass down. Lol
And yes while I think I have a pretty good handle on Vegas, I love this narrative that I am out of touch with other locations and what players go through. I am currently on an easy coast trip (wizard or OnceDear can verify general location).
There just seems to be folks that don't care for me and want me to be quiet so they come up with nonsense about I am making conditions worse. It really is rediculous.
My point is, it's annoying to listen anyone yammer on and on about their success or failure.
Now KJ, is different. Almost believable. Certainly far more than most. Very knowledgeable. An astute player IMO. Has passion in whatever he does. He's even given me some very good advice recently.
But there are still numerous holes in your claims. Im not saying it isnt true. Im saying I dont understand how it could be.
Moses you and anyone can believe or not believe what you like. I am fine with that. We are all free to find anyone and what they say credible or not.
And in my case if you think there are "holes" or something you don't understand or would like an answer to.... You can always ask me and I will answer if I can. I like to think I am accessible that way. People know where to find me. Maybe a little less accessible to you due to circumstances of this being our one common forum at the moment.
I walk thru on a weekday, I see an empty shoe game with the cards halfway gone. Or some people are playing. Or a new shoe just beginning. My time is maybe 5 minutes to view before things get awkward. I mean what else does a pit boss have to do on a slow day other than watch me watch them.
Obviously your directive is to improve your position. You are very good at it. Better than most. No? So what signifies to you sitting down to play vs moving on?
A rotation of 6 casinos per day is a full day. The concern is always staying too long means missing a good game somewhere else. A tricky thing.
Quote: moses...and then, when do you leave a table. At a certain negative count? When X amount of players sit down? Combination of the two?
A rotation of 6 casinos per day is a full day. The concern is always staying too long means missing a good game somewhere else. A tricky thing.
I believe in prior posts KJ said that he leaves the table at the end of a shoe where he has exposed his max bet.
Definately a prudent move for longevity.Quote: DRichI believe in prior posts KJ said that he leaves the table at the end of a shoe where he has exposed his max bet.
1. At the shuffle after showing my spread and top wager.
2. Aggressively exit negative count. Somewhere around -1.5 true count. If late in the shoe, and only a couple rounds to shuffle I may stretch to -2 t.c. Reasoning: would rather play a fresh, off the top shoe than continue @ tc -1.5.
3. If neither occurs. About an hour. Usually about 4 shoes. Reason: even if you haven't shown whole spread, you are showing betting patterns even in the lower amounts. Best not to show too much in one sitting.
#1 is the single biggest tell of a card counter. Retreating back from your max bet to a smaller bet at the shuffle. Exiting at this point eliminates that single biggest 'tell', greatly increasing longevity.
#1 and #2 combined almost guarantees a short session and that makes it much less likely to record the really big wins that draw so much attention. Instead you will have many more wins of smaller and moderate sizes just because of the shorter sessions. Smaller number of rounds per session.
Please note the specifity of "las Vegas shoe games". If I am playing double deck some things change for that circumstances. If I am playing out of town (as I currently am) things change for that lack of immediate new game close by.
If you want to know how things might change to accommodate those specific circumstances, I could expand into that but would rather wait until I am home in a few days and have more time (and don't have to post on phone).
Quote: kewljLas Vegas shoe game. Exit triggers.
1. At the shuffle after showing my spread and top wager.
2. Aggressively exit negative count. Somewhere around -1.5 true count. If late in the shoe, and only a couple rounds to shuffle I may stretch to -2 t.c. Reasoning: would rather play a fresh, off the top shoe than continue @ tc -1.5.
3. If neither occurs. About an hour. Usually about 4 shoes. Reason: even if you haven't shown whole spread, you are showing betting patterns even in the lower amounts. Best not to show too much in one sitting.
#1 is the single biggest tell of a card counter. Retreating back from your max bet to a smaller bet at the shuffle. Exiting at this point eliminates that single biggest 'tell', greatly increasing longevity.
#1 and #2 combined almost guarantees a short session and that makes it much less likely to record the really big wins that draw so much attention. Instead you will have many more wins of smaller and moderate sizes just because of the shorter sessions. Smaller number of rounds per session.
Please note the specifity of "las Vegas shoe games". If I am playing double deck some things change for that circumstances. If I am playing out of town (as I currently am) things change for that lack of immediate new game close by.
If you want to know how things might change to accommodate those specific circumstances, I could expand into that but would rather wait until I am home in a few days and have more time (and don't have to post on phone).
I talked to a dealer awhile back about shoes. She said they will reshuffle a shoe if the table is empty at the request of a new player. But if one exited shortly after because the count went too deep in negative, wouldn't that be a tell?
Do you always start playing or wonging from a fresh shoe? How long can you stand behind a table before jumping in or moving on? I will watch a new dealer to pick up on tendancies. But it's very awkward. 5 minutes feel like an hour. It's rare I see someone standing behind a table.
What is your over/under in terms of other players at the table?
The second time I back count is when I am playing one table while counting a second table. Not exactly backcounting but essentially the same thing.
Number of players. We all know the advantages of heads up play but I actually prefer 1 other player reason being that heads up when you exit aggressively on negative counts if you are heads up the game stops with all eyes on you as you exit. With 1 other player the game goes on as you exit drawing less attention.
Quote: kewljI generally don't back count. I think it looks too unnatural. 1. My usual method is to play off the top of a new shuffle.
2. There are two exception. One would be if I happen to walk by a table and see many small cards on the felt. Stanford. Wong did some work that tells us any cards played prior that we did not see is basically the same as more cards behind the cut card, essentially lower penetration. So you can have an advantage just from the round you see, making it worth joining or at least worth checking out another round.
3. Number of players. We all know the advantages of heads up play but I actually prefer 1 other player reason being that heads up when you exit aggressively on negative counts if you are heads up the game stops with all eyes on you as you exit. With 1 other player the game goes on as you exit drawing less attention.
Very well laid out.
1. Suppose you walk up to an empty table and shoe is 1/2 played. Do you ask for a shuffle? Is this common? Or do you move on to the next table or casino?
2.) Is it fair to assume this method only works early in the shoe?
3.) Now I know why some players want me to stay. I leave. They leave. I come back. They come back.
On average, how many casinos to you visit per day.? Sessions?
Hands per year?
Anyway, where does your first bet increase begin? How much do you spread between that point of intervals and your max bet?
Do you spread to two hands?
For instance, I spread to $100 for two hands at 59% or about 2.17 TC.. $150 at 60% or 2.5 TC. $200 at 67% TC. I get 6% increased bets and 94% min. bets. But a new idea I picked up from you and Bosox allow me to increase to 8% without giving up quality deck composition.
I am not going to post my actual spread again. I think that might be too identifying. I have done so in the past, you can probably find it of you want. Doesn't really matter. I max bet at +4 t.c (Hilo). The intervals don't even matter exactly what you bet. Just get at least half max bet out by +2 or +3 and you are good.
Quote: kewlj
Please note the specifity of "las Vegas shoe games". If I am playing double deck some things change for that circumstances. If I am playing out of town (as I currently am) things change for that lack of immediate new game close by.
If you want to know how things might change to accommodate those specific circumstances, I could expand into that but would rather wait until I am home in a few days and have more time (and don't have to post on phone).
Moses, I know I promised to expand on this once I returned home and had more time, but I have decided not to. I just completed a very successful 10 day trip in which my brother and I surprising drew very little heat and the last thing I want to do is go into detail about how we played.
As a matter of fact I have probably gone into too much detail in the last week answering some of your questions. I trust that was sincere on your part, and hope you found some of my answers useful.
peace
KJ
So Im at peace with peanuts. 😄
He knows the game. His approach is consistent . He lives in a place that offers several playing opportunities.
312 cards creates so mamy variables. The 2 in HILO speaks to the volatility. The workload wouldnt leave time to debate on a forum. Id be exhausted at the end of the day. That's alot of walking. I wouldnt give a crap about helping a newbie. I wouldnt tell friends or family of my income. Let alone strangers on a forum.
If he were playing two decks, using a count more weighted to the 5. Getting at least 60% pen and 2 hands on large bets at least 6% of the time. Low heat. Then the income is doable with patience, discipline, a reasonable spread allowance, and a strong work ethic.
If I bought his package? Id be heading that way.
