Trying to make a living counting cards and its driving me nuts so far.
Should I consistently play one hand, or start with 2 and stick with it unless the TC dips to -1 or worse?
2) How do you deal with negative/toxic people and have you ever noticed how it seems like negative variance hits when you are feeling negative/angry/nervous/irrritated? Would love to hear your thoughts on this.
3} Would you suggest playing by yourself or with others? From my experience it seems variance is higher when playing by yourself. When the TC is good it seems that the dealer busts more often when they should, but when its just me multi-handing, crazy stuff happens.
4) How much is enough to start a blackjack card counting career? Lets say minimum bet at the table is $15, and blackjacks pay 6 to 5.
I'd play Spanish 21 before I'd play 6:5 BJ, but Spanish 21 may have disappeared from Vegas for some reason, maybe it got deported.
I'm guessing you need a 1000 bet bankroll, and that's if you're flat betting, not doing the crazy betting seen in card counting.
If betting 2 hands, you'd need at least a 1500-2000 bet bankroll, and you'd probably have to bet double the table minimum; so you're $25 bets suddenly turn into two $50 bets. I'm told if you want to bet 3 hands, you might have to bet 5X the table minimum, so you'd need three $125 bets.
I get that card counters like to raise their bets and spread to 2 spots when the count is good, but pit bosses will kick people out in a New York minute for such moves.
Quote: ChumpChangeI'd have to find some way to send my bankroll into the stratosphere from nothing at this point, a years worth of $2,000 a month stimulus checks might help.
I'd play Spanish 21 before I'd play 6:5 BJ, but Spanish 21 may have disappeared from Vegas for some reason, maybe it got deported.
I'm guessing you need a 1000 bet bankroll, and that's if you're flat betting, not doing the crazy betting seen in card counting.
If betting 2 hands, you'd need at least a 1500-2000 bet bankroll, and you'd probably have to bet double the table minimum; so you're $25 bets suddenly turn into two $50 bets. I'm told if you want to bet 3 hands, you might have to bet 5X the table minimum, so you'd need three $125 bets.
I get that card counters like to raise their bets and spread to 2 spots when the count is good, but pit bosses will kick people out in a New York minute for such moves.
I can't tell if you're serious or being sarcastic but you always seem to comment on these card counting threads with advice when you clearly do not understand the subject at hand.
Quote: NimadamusI am an avid blackjack player and have been playing for over 20 years. Just recently I started taking up serious card counting. I have had some good results lately, but just today I dropped about half my bankroll after dropping to -1200, getting it all back and getting up maybe 80 bucks or so, then some weird people at the table starting annoying me and it went downhill. Isnt it amazing how it always seems like if we are feeling down or negative, the luck is sooooo shitty. Anyway, some questions for my fellow blackjacking redditors.
Should I consistently play one hand, or start with 2 and stick with it unless the TC dips to -1 or worse?
2) How do you deal with negative/toxic people and have you ever noticed how it seems like negative variance hits when you are feeling negative/angry/nervous/irrritated? Would love to hear your thoughts on this.
3} Would you suggest playing by yourself or with others? From my experience it seems variance is higher when playing by yourself. When the TC is good it seems that the dealer busts more often when they should, but when its just me multi-handing, crazy stuff happens.
4) How much is enough to start a blackjack card counting career? Lets say minimum bet at the table is $15, and blackjacks pay 6 to 5.
If these are questions you need to ask you are a LONG way away from being able to play blackjack profitably, much less for a living. I don't mean that as an insult, i'm trying to save you money. You have a lot of studying to do and many sims to run before you should "invest" another penny into the game.
One absolute rule is NEVER play 6:5. The biggest benefit you have at the table is a 3:2 blackjack. When counting, a high true count is when you will have the most money out, and it's the time when a blackjack is more likely. Reducing the payout to 6:5 will hurt the most when it REALLY matters.
I would not start with two hands, and in fact almost never play two hands. At a true count of -2 - take a walk. But try to do it after two losses in a row, or make a point of saying that's why you are staying out.
My experience is that card counting is easy - but only after you have spent a LOT of time practicing, be it at home or at a table in a real casino. Be prepared for losses that have nothing to do with the math but rather with your inexperience in dealing with all the distractions that cause you to lose count. My biggest mistake was in trying to regain the true count and estimating it more in my favor than it actually was. At least that's my excuse for losses that "shouldn't happen" because I was so certain that the count was in my favor. Distractions are part of the environment. The toughest thing to do is to tune them all out while not making it look like it.
The game is on a razor-thin edge in order to get an advantage that you can exploit. Don't expect any large windfalls unless you are willing to "invest" a lot of money in high-limit games ($100 minimum, at least). With that large a spread (1 to 6 units = $100 - $600) you need to bring a lot of money to the business.
Other people and how they play has NOTHING to do with your success or failure. You will see players "take the dealer's bust card" or make other moves that you are certain have effected the outcome, but you will recall the bad results far more often than the good ones, and the other players will act in your favor as many times as they don't - you just won't remember those. Over time players making mistakes will lose more than you will. The math guarantees that, but most poor players are only there "for some fun" and expect to lose.
Negative variance is not cause by "bad vibes" or toxic people. It's all in the cards. As far as I am concerned: oh - there are other people at the table? My play is going to be based on what basic strategy and the count tell me it should be. I prefer playing at third base, so many times players will be upset if my play "effects" the dealer's outcome. Too bad.
I wish you luck. It will not be easy if you want to be successful in counting, and it gets more difficult every day. But in fact, luck has nothing to do with it.
It's confirmation bias or your negative feelings make you play sh*tty. Most likely it's simple confirmation bias.Quote: NimadamusI am an avid blackjack player and have been playing for over 20 years. Just recently I started taking up serious card counting. I have had some good results lately, but just today I dropped about half my bankroll after dropping to -1200, getting it all back and getting up maybe 80 bucks or so, then some weird people at the table starting annoying me and it went downhill. Isnt it amazing how it always seems like if we are feeling down or negative, the luck is sooooo shitty.
P.S. Are you staying hydrated?
Quote: Nimadamusthen some weird people at the table starting annoying me and it went downhill.
2) How do you deal with negative/toxic people and have you ever noticed how it seems like negative variance hits when you are feeling negative/angry/nervous/irrritated? Would love to hear your thoughts on this.
3} Would you suggest playing by yourself or with others? From my experience it seems variance is higher when playing by yourself. When the TC is good it seems that the dealer busts more often when they should, but when its just me multi-handing, crazy stuff happens
Don’t let anyone ever tell you that the same outcomes would have happened with more than just you. People can clearly tell when an outcome would have been beneficial to them when another player sits in and it goes downhill for you and uphill for them.
When the cards come out you can see what your hand would have been had that player not sat at the table and started to say it was rigged or whatever they did to make your mood go south.
I don’t know how to card count but I do know that another player sitting at your table really does effect the outcomes that you will receive.
There was a blackjack algorithm that was used on a digital blackjack machine which gave every person at the “table” their own show of cards because of that same reason. You are effecting the person in front of you and their chances to receive certain cards when you are playing a physical deck of cards.
People are actually coolers when it comes to blackjack I can’t state that enough
Quote: heatmapDon’t let anyone ever tell you that the same outcomes would have happened with more than just you. People can clearly tell when an outcome would have been beneficial to them when another player sits in and it goes downhill for you and uphill for them.
When the cards come out you can see what your hand would have been had that player not sat at the table and started to say it was rigged or whatever they did to make your mood go south.
I don’t know how to card count but I do know that another player sitting at your table really does effect the outcomes that you will receive.
There was a blackjack algorithm that was used on a digital blackjack machine which gave every person at the “table” their own show of cards because of that same reason. You are effecting the person in front of you and their chances to receive certain cards when you are playing a physical deck of cards.
People are actually coolers when it comes to blackjack I can’t state that enough
If you play one on one with the dealer, the dealer will get 50% of the BJs. If you play with three other players, the dealer will now get 20% of the BJs. Absolutely true from a mathematical perspective but utterly meaningless to your bottom line. Just like your entire post.
Are you traveling? Its going to be challenging to make a living with traveling expenses. Are you staying in one city? You will be detected
I understand now why counters call this a hobby. Because its not their only form of income except for a few
Quote: billryanIf you play one on one with the dealer, the dealer will get 50% of the BJs. If you play with three other players, the dealer will now get 20% of the BJs. Absolutely true from a mathematical perspective but utterly meaningless to your bottom line. Just like your entire post.
You haven’t thought about it enough to understand that when playing heads up, you can more likely take those blackjacks from the dealer because of how the positions of the cards work. In my opinion.
The number of bets at each level was more like 13X, 6X, 3X, 1X when I was at 237 hands.
Quote: SgYou don't know what you are talking about . ... as "POSITIONS OF THE CARD WORKS"
eh - i made a cryptic post about something i called the "parity" problem. you may be able to discern what im trying to say based on that post. i just dont feel like getting into something very theoretical because its really some crazy stuff i may have made up in my head and it may not be real at all
Great video, a must watch.
In many jobs you can survive at a low level of competence. You can earn bonuses based on longevity. You can get incremental pay raises simply by staying in the job. You can get promoted. Your uncle or friend can get you hired and keep you from getting fired. There is sick pay. Vacations. Paid family leave. Health care. Pensions. 401Ks.
It does not work like that where we work.
Keep at this job for forty years and there is no gold watch. You never get an increase in salary. A Senior Card Counter position pays the same as Card Counter Trainee, except that when the trainee makes a mistake, it's deducted from his net pay the moment it happens.
At least the factory will never close down, and you'll never get laid off. Unless, of course, you get too good at it, in which case the layoff is not a pink slip but a tap on the shoulder from an empty suit. Hopefully you work in a town that has more than one factory, and the owners don't exchange the names of former workers who should never be given a chance anywhere else.
Then there are your colleagues, who will give you uniformly horrible advice. There is no union. You will never attend a team meeting, and you won't go to coffee with other workers who will be eager to share with you the ins and outs of the profession. This forum is probably as close as you can get to that, but beware - a lot of the folks here are wearing tinfoil hats. And if you mention any of those folks by name, you'll get tossed out of the break room, permanently. You need to filter out the bad advice and ignore it. But don't make any trouble.
If you can afford the time and energy that it takes to learn the trade, it's very rewarding, even if it's not a living. I feel good about the level of skill I bring to this, and I know people who are even better at it than I am - much better. I chuckle quietly to myself whenever I hear someone, seriously, tell me how to play - and provide advice that I know is batshit crazy. I walk into a casino not "expecting to lose". I am not there "just to have a good time."
I don't need to do this for a living, and I probably could not do it at a level where I could. If that's your goal, good luck, but it will not be easy. I have friends who are very good golfers, but will never even entertain the idea of playing in the PGA. But they can go out as often as they feel like it, and be satisfied with how they do. That's a goal that I think is more realistic.
Quote: Nimadamus
2) How do you deal with negative/toxic people and have you ever noticed how it seems like negative variance hits when you are feeling negative/angry/nervous/irrritated? Would love to hear your thoughts on this.
Quote: heatmapYou haven’t thought about it enough to understand that when playing heads up, you can more likely take those blackjacks from the dealer because of how the positions of the cards work. In my opinion.
Math doesn't care about your opinion.
Quote: Nimadamus(snip)
4) How much is enough to start a blackjack card counting career? Lets say minimum bet at the table is $15, and blackjacks pay 6 to 5.
Short answer, I would want $135,000+ using the strategy below:
For the 6/5 BJ game I would want, as a minimum:
. Single-deck (anything above that and 6/5 is not worth playing as a counter).
. Knowledge of all the cards dealt / all the players' cards are dealt face-up
. Spread 1 or 15 units (see below)
. Bet 1 unit, when the true count is less than +4, and bet 15 units when the true count is +4 (or more).
. Use a "basic high - low" counting strategy
. To see half a deck of cards (or more) per shoe before the cards were shuffled.
The benefits of this strategy would be that:
. It gives an EV of about 0.81 units per 100 hands
. It gives an average return on all money invested/wagered of 0.280...%
The cons/potential cons of this strategy would be that:
. You probably would need to have very short sessions, as using a strategy like the one above would (very likely) get you flagged by the casino pretty quickly.
. You would need a large "bank-roll", otherwise you would probably have an unacceptable Risk of Ruin (RoR), see below:
1) 1000 unit bank, if you were happy to have a RoR ~ 59.5%
2) 2000 unit bank, ... to have a RoR of ~ 35.4%
3) 5000 unit bank, ... to have a RoR of ~ 7.4%
4) 9000 unit bank, ... to have a RoR of ~ 0.9%
5) 10000 unit bank, ... to have a RoR of ~0.55%
Note: I don't know how to work out RoR myself, so I plugged 55.793 as the Standard deviation per 100 hands and the win rate as 0.808 units per 100 hands into a program (it would be great if someone could prove or disprove this for me, thanks).
Questions you need to ask:
1) Can I find any investment streams out there that have a better "risk to return on investment" profile?
2) For a $135,000 investment, is ~ $12.13 in EV per 100 hands worth all this work?
3) Have I done enough counting practice to minimize mistakes?
Note: I would personally have answered no to question 3) when using this strategy (because you would have to be as close to a perfect counter and BJ player as humanly possible, for such a low edge, IMO)
4) As someone else pointed out, 6/5 BJ is terrible (around 1.2% house edge for a "good" 6/5 game, for the basic strategy player), so are there any good 3/2 games near me?
5 a) When using something like the above strategy, how much cover play will I need (this is hard to answer yourself, you will need to ask around)?
5 b) Will the costs (if any) of the cover play(s) that I plan to use turn my core +EV strategy into a -EV one, overall?
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Update (~435 pm, Pac Time):
I forgot to mention these important rules that I used were: dealer hits on soft 17, split to 4 hands, no double after split , and you can only double down on 10 or 11,
Assuming that you could find such a game:
6:5
Single deck
50 % penetration
H17
Double down only on 10 and 11
No DAS
No surrender (assumed, not mentioned above)
No RSA (assumed, not mentioned above)
Spread of 1 - 15 @ $10 game: $10-$150
Spread of 1 - 15 @ $25 game: $25-$375
Maybe don't bring so much after all. Assuming there is such a game, somewhere, how long would you last before getting a tap on the shoulder with such a spread?
Then again, how often does a 50% pen game, single deck, get to a +4 count?
There ought to be a warning on responses like this. At least "your mileage will probably be less." Much less.
If there are? I'm a spectator.Quote: billryanThere are other players at the table? I've never noticed.
What do you do when someone else sits down at a table where you are playing by yourself?
Quote: fantomThe point was that other players are irrelevant. They deserve no consideration in deciding how you play and have absolutely no impact on your overall success. If you are never going to play unless you are one-on-one with the dealer, you certainly are going to be a spectator for a lot of the time.
What do you do when someone else sits down at a table where you are playing by yourself?
I watch. Usually they lose all their money and leave in a very short amount of time. If not? I go find another game.
I've seen players ask to raise the minimum at a table so as to chase other folks away, but as a rule I am forced to take what I can get. I prefer heads-up play, but that doesn't happen often.
If I'm in a good place in the shoe, I don't like other people coming it to dilute the positive "karma", but there's nothing I can do about it, and I'm not going to give up an advantage such that I move somewhere else and have to reset to zero.
IF you are going to play with more than one other person, then you should jump to double deck. Otherwise, with two people, you are spending most of your time watching the dealer shuffle.
Quality over quantity. CV Data is essential.
I thought we were talking about single deck. Of course 6 decks would be different.
Definately a question one should ask themselves before they ever play their first hand.
For instance, KJ writes about his success/losses in the game. 21forme is a grinder from what I gather. It must be worth it to them. But it wouldn't be for me. And vice versa.
First it should be noted that Moses plays only single deck. He lives and plays one of the few places left that has decent single deck BJ (and from the sounds of things that may have changed a bit or started to change in the post covid era). And as we have learned in the past few days, only plays heads up. Apparently a session that he is playing where someone else joins the game is an "interruptted session", a term and concept several of us that play the game regularly were not familiar with. But in fairness to him, many of us (other players) don't have access to or play the single deck games that he does.
Question Moses: Does Reno not have NMSE for single deck? This would eliminate your "interrupted sessions". Many places in Vegas have it for double deck, I would think they should have it for single deck as well. It is not unreasonable to expect a new player joining to wait 3, or 4 rounds for the next shuffle. (Except those players trying to wong into a positive count.....they find it unreasonable. lol)
Next, Moses's experience aside, blackjack card counting, the way most of us play and the games we have access to is a game that involves significant variance. That would be swings in both directions that can last weeks, even months for a player that plays frequently. I have had 5 (five) different losing periods that lasted 4 months or longer and 30K or more.
Now that is not losing every single day. It usually consists of a significant short losing period and then slow climb back to where you were. That is what card counting is to most players playing double deck and 6 deck games....a grind. But that shows the kind of bankroll needed for most players (playing the more common 6 deck and double deck games) to sustain the variance associated with blackjack card counting. I guess the idea of substantial variance is as foreign to moses as some of his are to us.
So much has changed Pre and Post covid. I would say NMSE is standard for the single deck game. However, some dealers let players in and others don't. It seems there is a common courtesy amongst experienced players to wait or at least ask.
Variance. Normally, playing green chip, getting down $1000 one week and making it back the next is a bad variance experience for me. Last January and February my profits were offset by my tips. Yikes.
But 5 wins 23 losses (ties, interruptions not included) is perfect example of why my approach must be defensive. Suppose I go 23-5 over the next two months. I'd be even. Yippee! I'd also be banned. ugh!
Quote: moses
But 5 wins 23 losses (ties, interruptions not included) is perfect example of why my approach must be defensive. Suppose I go 23-5 over the next two months. I'd be even. Yippee! I'd also be banned. ugh!
Yet another thing I am confused about. Are your sessions all the same amount?
For me, it is not about sessions won or lost, it is about money, or units if you like won or lost. Because I and other counters that play double deck and shoe games use a much bigger spread than a single deck player might use, again, our variance is greater.
I might lose many small sessions where the count doesn't move much (neutral) and I am playing smaller wagers, and maybe lose a few more smaller wagers than I win for many small losses. And then I get that really good strong positive count and win a number of max bets, that would be 10, 12, 16 times my smaller bets and that one session can offset 10 smaller losing sessions, AND VICE VERSA. One big losing sessions losing a number of Max bets and particular double downs at max bet can easily wipe out 10, 12 smaller winning sessions.
This seems to be a big difference in what you experience, where sessions are not going to be so dramatically different because of the small spread between different wagers, All comes back to variance which all comes back to the difference in spread size.
I'd say most APs are more like 15%. No?
From what Ive read, you hold your own in a negative shoe. Typically, I'm on reset every 6 rounds which probably reduces variance as well.
Quote: mosesAlso variance is determined by the frequency of a large bet. About 6% is about the best I can do without drawing heat and to minimize variance.
I'd say most APs are more like 15%. No?
No, no. You really have this backwards. The less decks, the higher the true count frequency. Let's say I place my top wager at TC of +4, hi-lo, which I know you do not play, but I am going to use as my example because I do.
So at a 6 deck game, average 75% pen, if I am playing all rounds, I will see a Maxbet situation about 5% of the time (slightly over)
At a double deck game, average pen about 60% it would be just over 11%
I don't have access to single deck numbers without running a sim (because I don't play) but it should be even higher.
And I know this doesn't involve you but for an 8 deck game, again 75% pen it would drop to roughly 3.5% See how much worse 8 deck is than 6 deck? A lot of players don't realize that because they feel similar but it is the true count frequencies that differ greatly.
Also within each game the number also fluctuation fairly significantly by the penetration of the game. A deeper pen game can have 25-33% higher max bet opportunities than the same game at average pen.
Anyway, back to the discussion involving you. If you are only putting your top wager out 6% of the time playing a single deck game, you must be putting it out at a higher true count with less frequency.
Anyway, the more often you can get your max bet out the lower variance should be in the longterm. You will have enough trials to smooth it out. BUT conversely you might encounter more variance short term as you have a bad run (especially shoe game) where you lose a bunch of max bets in one bad shoe.
The bottom line is the more decks, the worse the game (SCORE), fewer max bet opportunities, larger spread needed to overcome all those negative and neutral counts and higher variance. The less decks each of these things gets better. Should be more maxbet opportunities if you are comparing apples to apples using same max bet TC, you should have a higher SCORE, be able to play with smaller spread and less variance.
Fewer the decks the better game, but also the more closely watched for that reason.
Quote: HokusPokusThis kind of work just seems too risky for me. What happens when your luck runs bad and you have to pay your bills for the month? Does anyone support a family by card counting???
You need a big bankroll so that you don't fret the variance too much. And even when you are properly funded it takes going through the worse swings a few times and coming out the other side to sort of get used to it and even then, I don't know that you EVER really get used to it. Last year when casinos reopened and I lost 30k in about 3-4 weeks at 1 single casino, my mind immediately jumped to "cheating" when it was just variance, even stronger variance than normal that I myself created by playing higher stakes. I just hadn't gotten used to that yet.
Anyway few of us start out properly funded with a bankroll needed. Most successful card counters around actually have a very similar story. They started out very underfunded (my case was $4300), playing very low stakes (my case $5 and $10 tables) making expectation less than a minimum wage job. Most just very slowly grind their way, very slowly growing Bankroll, maybe hit some good variance as I did my 3rd year, allowing you to bump up a little and it just keeps going from there until you ARE properly funded.
If this is your journey as it was so many of us, you have to really want it. Almost be more passionate about making money from blackjack than how much you are making in the beginning. I have always said it works best for someone young, with minimal expenses and responsibilities. That means no family and kids at that point. Another good time to jump into BJ advantage play is later in life when someone retires, kids are grown and through college, you have some retirement income to pay you basic expenses and just want to supplement.
Now that said, once you get going, get past those early years of skimping by and building a bankroll, and settle into a more normal life, there are some middle aged guys that have kids, raising a family. Not going to speak for him but one guy that posts here raised his family and put his kids through college as a longtime AP, at least some of it card counting.
I myself am now getting into my late 30's (uggh). Don't have a traditional family, no kids. My younger brother co-owns and shares my condo. he is my family right now (along with Mom who lives in a nearby 55+ community). But I am pretty middle class. I COULD support a family and kids at this point of my career. (this will be year 18, if and when I get going after covid vaccine)
A max bet is when 67% high cards remain and 33% low remain.
If only 6 rounds are dealt? The alot of quality deck compositions get shuffled away.
For the post covid, I'm beat hand after hand and rarely get to a large bet opportunity.
Makes me wonder just how many started out that way and never made it, tapping out early or somewhere along the way. I'll bet for every one that made it there is many, many times than number that didn't.
Quote: HokusPokusThis kind of work just seems too risky for me. What happens when your luck runs bad and you have to pay your bills for the month? Does anyone support a family by card counting???
Knowledge reduces risk. For me, the two most valuable products are Casino Verite and CV Data. But one can't buy them as dust collectors. You have to WORK.
No. I couldn't have supported my family with only blackjack income. Not even close. But it has provided ample pre covid income to take care of myself.
Quote: kewljYou need a big bankroll so that you don't fret the variance too much. And even when you are properly funded it takes going through the worse swings a few times and coming out the other side to sort of get used to it and even then, I don't know that you EVER really get used to it. Last year when casinos reopened and I lost 30k in about 3-4 weeks at 1 single casino, my mind immediately jumped to "cheating" when it was just variance, even stronger variance than normal that I myself created by playing higher stakes. I just hadn't gotten used to that yet.
Anyway few of us start out properly funded with a bankroll needed. Most successful card counters around actually have a very similar story. They started out very underfunded (my case was $4300), playing very low stakes (my case $5 and $10 tables) making expectation less than a minimum wage job. Most just very slowly grind their way, very slowly growing Bankroll, maybe hit some good variance as I did my 3rd year, allowing you to bump up a little and it just keeps going from there until you ARE properly funded.
If this is your journey as it was so many of us, you have to really want it. Almost be more passionate about making money from blackjack than how much you are making in the beginning. I have always said it works best for someone young, with minimal expenses and responsibilities. That means no family and kids at that point. Another good time to jump into BJ advantage play is later in life when someone retires, kids are grown and through college, you have some retirement income to pay you basic expenses and just want to supplement.
Now that said, once you get going, get past those early years of skimping by and building a bankroll, and settle into a more normal life, there are some middle aged guys that have kids, raising a family. Not going to speak for him but one guy that posts here raised his family and put his kids through college as a longtime AP, at least some of it card counting.
I myself am now getting into my late 30's (uggh). Don't have a traditional family, no kids. My younger brother co-owns and shares my condo. he is my family right now (along with Mom who lives in a nearby 55+ community). But I am pretty middle class. I COULD support a family and kids at this point of my career. (this will be year 18, if and when I get going after covid vaccine)
Oh my, thank you so much for sharing. That sounds like a struggle, just freaking out about the possibility of getting cheated scares me, & I'm sure it's happened before. You have to have big kahunas to do what you're doing. So do you like games with fewer decks to reduce the variance?
Quote: mosesThis is where we probably have a breakdown in terminology. My first large bet is when 60% of high value cards remain vs 40% low cards. The TC varies depending on how one sets up the sim. For me, it comes down to the tag values I assign to the cards. Since this involves 1/2 point tags, my TC begins around 2.25. But, I think for HiLo, the TC equivalent is 4.5 because the tag is all 1 or -1.
A max bet is when 67% high cards remain and 33% low remain.
If only 6 rounds are dealt? The alot of quality deck compositions get shuffled away.
For the post covid, I'm beat hand after hand and rarely get to a large bet opportunity.
If you are counting high cards as the traditional 10, J, Q, K, A, that 67% remaining is a total flip when the neutral deck of 38% right off the top. I don't even know how to figure what TC and advantage that might be but I am guessing pretty high. A player could only do this with a specialty count, which I know is what you claim AND playing single deck (possible double deck). For your sake, I hope your Single deck game remains as it has been.
I now understand what you are talking about with your 60%, 40% split numbers. Quite frankly, this made no sense to me and others I spoke too about you, because that is not how traditional card counting works. We are talking about + and - counts and 1, 2, 3, 4% advantages while you are talking about hi/low card ratios, Again, I hope it continues for you, because if Reno pulls the plug on single decks at some point, I think you are going to have a hard time adjusting to 6 decks, higher variance and other people at your table. lol.
Unfortunately Nevada seems to be slow rolling that out, still on the 70 years old plus, to be followed at some point by 65-69 and then my group, 16-64 with higher risks. At this point I am figuring that I probably won't be back at the tables until May. So I am enjoying a little blackjack discussion, which we don't get a lot of around here.
My blackjack playing days are coming to an end. But it's been one helluva ride. lol
Quote: mosesDon S must have started somewhere. Who taught Don? A tremendous mind. But few understand the work ethic it must have taken to do what he did and get where he got.
I believe Don was heavily influenced by Lawrence Revere as Norm was. Norm was literally taught by Revere. I don't know if Don was actually a student of Revere, but he was heavily influenced by Revere's 'Playing blackjack as a business'. That is why both Don and Norm played Reveres level 2 Revere point count, not to be confused with the later (RAPC). Both basically play that count even today I believe. Don says "why change now" still using hundreds of index play although he now admits most add little or diminishing value. And Norm, has his Felt count, which is very similar, I don't even know what the slight difference is to the RPC he initially learned.
That is when I stumbled onto Wong's book, and the hi-lo, which is very similar to hi-opt 1 except it DOES count the most important card, the ace. And that is what I have played for 17 years now, except that 18 month period that I tried RPC. I learned RPC and played it and just didn't think it offered much improvement for the shoe games I played, so I went back to hi-lo. And I believe that was the best decision of my career.
Keeping it simple with hi-lo later allowed me to incorporate other techniques like tracking a second table into my play, which a number of people give me a hard time about, but is very possible with a simple count (for short bursts). Tracking a second table is related to wonging. You walk by a a table get a glimpse of the cards on felt and with a very simple count like hi-lo, cards cancel out and you immediately, in a fraction of a second, without even thinking have a count of what is on the felt. With a level 2 and 3 count, cards don't cancel out. you actually have to count and that takes more time.
I know you are a proponent of higher counts, but keeping it simple has worked very well for me.
So drop the 2 to 0 and assign the 7 at 1. Now only the 5 and 9 have 1/2 point consideration.
According to SCORE the simple tweak could help your double deck game. Perhaps dropping the 7 to 0 and assign the 2 at 1 might improve the 6 deck game.
Point is, I'm looking for minor tweaks as opposed to major side counts.
Quote: kewljIncidentally, I too learned and played RPC for 18 months early in my career. It wasn't the first count I learned though. The first book I read was Worlds greatest blackjack book, which had the Hi-opt 1 count. That is the first count I learned and practiced with at home. Unfortunately, hi-opt 1 counted 10, j, q, k vs 3-6. It didn't account for the Ace, which anyone counting cards quickly learns must be accounted for either in primary count or some sort of side count.
World's Greatest Blackjack Book was also my introduction to counting and I learned HI-OPT from it. i did eventually add the Ace side count.
I really thought it was a good entertaining read also.
Quote: DRichWorld's Greatest Blackjack Book was also my introduction to counting and I learned HI-OPT from it. i did eventually add the Ace side count.
I really thought it was a good entertaining read also.
I thought it was a great read, but never learned HI-OPT. I blended KISS and KO, but mostly relied on scavenging matchplays.
Quote: billryanI thought it was a great read, but never learned HI-OPT. I blended KISS and KO, but mostly relied on scavenging matchplays.
Could you please explain some of the terms your using?
Quote: HokusPokusCould you please explain some of the terms your using?
Just Google Hi-OPT Blackjack, KISS Blackjack,and KO Blackjackand you should find everything.
