$16 on hard 16 promotion
I show the probability of a hard 16 in a six-deck game is 6.51%. Getting $16* every time that happens is worth $1.04 a hand. Dividing that by a $25 bet is worth 4.16% the player's way. I don't know what the other rules are, if we assume a house edge of 0.66%, that would be a player edge of 3.5%.
If we assume the player bets three hands of $25 and 80 rounds per hour, that is worth $210/hr and fairly low risk.
* corrected
Quote: WizardNice!
I show the probability of a hard 16 in a six-deck game is 6.51%. Getting $25 every time that happens is worth $1.04 a hand. Dividing that by a $25 bet is worth 4.16% the player's way. I don't know what the other rules are, if we assume a house edge of 0.66%, that would be a player edge of 3.5%.
OP says you get $16 not $25. So would be $0.66/hand? I highly doubt most casinos with $25 minimum would allow you to bet 3x25 although some east coast and tucson casinos do allow three hands at table minimum and I'm sure more are allowing two during covid.
By the way, Wiz, was your calculations just for the first 2 card 16's or all hard 16's? (3, 4,5 card 16's?)
Also would probably change basic strategy a little. Take a hand like 12 vs 4 that is really borderline stand. Under this scenario it might become more favorable to hit, right? Maybe even some 13 stiff hands?
Quote: mcallister3200OP says you get $16 not $25. So would be $0.66/hand?
Good catch. $16 * 6.51% = $1.04. So, my math was right, but I had a typo on the bonus amount.
Quote:I highly doubt most casinos with $25 minimum would allow you to bet 3x25 although some east coast and tucson casinos do allow three hands at table minimum and I'm sure more are allowing two during covid.
Good point. Might be one per player too.
Quote: kewljBy the way, Wiz, was your calculations just for the first 2 card 16's or all hard 16's? (3, 4,5 card 16's?)
Good catch. My calculation was just the first two cards.
Quote:Also would probably change basic strategy a little. Take a hand like 12 vs 4 that is really borderline stand. Under this scenario it might become more favorable to hit, right? Maybe even some 13 stiff hands?
I agree.
12 vs. 4
12 vs. 5
13 vs. 2
13 vs. 3
There would be a lot more basic strategy changes if the bonus applies after doubling or splitting.
Quote: calwatchOnly what is on their web site. I'm tempted to drive out there and find out, although I would rather not be gathering at a casino table when COVID case rates in the SoCal region are spiking and ICU capacity is dropping like a rock.
Are they voluntarily operating at 25% capacity? Could be difficult getting a seat, if so.
I would be surprised if this is "unlimited $16 bonuses" per player.
Quote: gordonm888I imagine that 8-8 is considered to be NOT a hard 16?
Why not?
Quote:I would be surprised if this is "unlimited $16 bonuses" per player.
I would be surprised otherwise. Much like the Mohegan Sun went through with the Triple Down promotion, I predict they follow through with it.
Quote: WizardWhy not?
I would be surprised otherwise. Much like the Mohegan Sun went through with the Triple Down promotion, I predict they follow through with it.
Morongo had a similar promotion many years back for Friday the 13th...much before my time gambling but people who were there say every single ap from all over the country showed up, and they cancelled the promo before it even started. I can't imagine they are dumb enough to try that again. I'd bet it's one hard 16 per person, and you may even have to have a physical coupon to redeem to get paid.
Quote: DeucekiesThis seems like a promotion that might be tied to a progressive fund they're trying to give away. A few months ago, several WA state cardrooms gave away all their progressive meters in a promotion kind of like this one.
Years ago the Chumash had a promotion where you got $22 if you busted with 22. The minimum bet was $3 at the time, if I remember correctly. Our own teliot played it. I believe he said the casino had to give back the "fee to play" money and that is how they did it.
However the "fee to play" days in California in tribal casinos are long gone.
I tend to think it was just an ill-conceived promotion.
Quote: WTflushI don't think washington card rooms have machines. Also morongo has something like 4000+ machines so they have plenty of other places to dump the progressive money, it does not make sense to give it to table games players.
WA cardrooms don't have machines, but their table games do have progressive jackpots.
Quote: DeucekiesWA cardrooms don't have machines, but their table games do have progressive jackpots.
The part about machines was directed at blackjacklad not you, as he brought up machines. But, since you're here, please explain what circumstances lead to WA card rooms giving away their progressive money and how that could possibly apply to a giant Indian casino in California.
Quote: WTflushThe part about machines was directed at blackjacklad not you, as he brought up machines. But, since you're here, please explain what circumstances lead to WA card rooms giving away their progressive money and how that could possibly apply to a giant Indian casino in California.
WA cardrooms will give away their progressive money any time the jackpot is removed from play. It could mean the game is being removed, just the progressive wager is being removed, or the cardroom is planning to close. In WA's case, the cardrooms who did this did not bring their progressives out to the outdoor tents, so they had to give the money away.
Quote: WizardAnybody hear anything?
$50 min on every table except 1 which is $25 and of course impossible to get a seat at.
Quote: WTflush$50 min on every table except 1 which is $25 and of course impossible to get a seat at.
That's what I figured, which would still be a player advantage with $50 flat betting if they actually paid $16 on every 16. I was not about to risk my health to find out, though.
Quote: calwatchThat's what I figured, which would still be a player advantage with $50 flat betting if they actually paid $16 on every 16. I was not about to risk my health to find out, though.
It is unlimited $16 payouts. I'm very surprised.
I got a spot on $25 but I'm considering going to a $50 table and playing all 6 spots haha
Quote: FinsRuleI don't think this was already addressed... What's the maximum bet for there to still be a player advantage?
That is a good question but clearly the best EV is betting the minimum.
Quote: FinsRuleI don't think this was already addressed... What's the maximum bet for there to still be a player advantage?
If it's worth $1.04 a hand then the breakeven wager is $1.04/<house edge>. For a .57% game that would be about $183.
Quote: DRichThat is a good question but clearly the best EV is betting the minimum.
If you're getting 50% more hands you're betting off betting a $50 min table than a $15 assuming you're adequately bankrolled.
Quote: WTflush$50 min on every table except 1 which is $25 and of course impossible to get a seat at.
Thank you for the report!
Quote: FinsRuleI don't think this was already addressed... What's the maximum bet for there to still be a player advantage?
The bonus is worth $1.04 a hand and the house edge otherwise is 0.55%.
So the breakeven bet amount would be $1.04/0.0055 = $189.09.
At a $50 bet it was worth $0.77 per hand played.
Quote: sabreIf you're getting 50% more hands you're betting off betting a $50 min table than a $15 assuming you're adequately bankrolled.
That’s what I was trying to get at with my question. Thanks.
Quote: SOOPOODid anyone ever answer if it is just a two card 16 that pays or any number of cards?
It was only on the first 2 cards. Otherwise the table rules were fairly standard, 6 Deck 3:2 RSA Split4 H17 DAS no LS. Decent promo, wish I would've spent all day there!
https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/gambling-with-an-edge-guest-michael-shackleford-aka-wizard-of-odds/
