calwatch
calwatch
Joined: Feb 7, 2010
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 114
December 6th, 2020 at 7:54:34 PM permalink
A Southern California Indian casino (you can look it up) is offering a special $16 on a hard 16, stating simply, "Win or lose, win a BONUS $16 when you’re dealt a hard 16 on traditional Blackjack!" Their usual minimums are $25 on 6 deck, $50 on double deck, hit on 17. Who knows if this bonus is only paid once per cardholder (in which case it's nice but not a gamechanger) or for every hand (which seems very advantageous, although this casino has been known to give the heat on minimal changes in bet).
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1360
  • Posts: 22560
December 6th, 2020 at 9:14:05 PM permalink
Nice!

I show the probability of a hard 16 in a six-deck game is 6.51%. Getting $16* every time that happens is worth $1.04 a hand. Dividing that by a $25 bet is worth 4.16% the player's way. I don't know what the other rules are, if we assume a house edge of 0.66%, that would be a player edge of 3.5%.

If we assume the player bets three hands of $25 and 80 rounds per hour, that is worth $210/hr and fairly low risk.

* corrected
Last edited by: Wizard on Dec 7, 2020
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 2578
December 6th, 2020 at 9:26:34 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Nice!

I show the probability of a hard 16 in a six-deck game is 6.51%. Getting $25 every time that happens is worth $1.04 a hand. Dividing that by a $25 bet is worth 4.16% the player's way. I don't know what the other rules are, if we assume a house edge of 0.66%, that would be a player edge of 3.5%.



OP says you get $16 not $25. So would be $0.66/hand? I highly doubt most casinos with $25 minimum would allow you to bet 3x25 although some east coast and tucson casinos do allow three hands at table minimum and I'm sure more are allowing two during covid.
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
  • Threads: 205
  • Posts: 4072
December 6th, 2020 at 10:00:00 PM permalink
Better find out if it is all hard 16's or just the first for each player. I am guessing just a one time bonus the first hard 16 for each player. Otherwise you are looking at a blackjack player AP convention in Cali. lol

By the way, Wiz, was your calculations just for the first 2 card 16's or all hard 16's? (3, 4,5 card 16's?)

Also would probably change basic strategy a little. Take a hand like 12 vs 4 that is really borderline stand. Under this scenario it might become more favorable to hit, right? Maybe even some 13 stiff hands?
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1360
  • Posts: 22560
December 7th, 2020 at 5:19:30 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

OP says you get $16 not $25. So would be $0.66/hand?



Good catch. $16 * 6.51% = $1.04. So, my math was right, but I had a typo on the bonus amount.

Quote:

I highly doubt most casinos with $25 minimum would allow you to bet 3x25 although some east coast and tucson casinos do allow three hands at table minimum and I'm sure more are allowing two during covid.



Good point. Might be one per player too.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1360
  • Posts: 22560
December 7th, 2020 at 5:20:32 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

By the way, Wiz, was your calculations just for the first 2 card 16's or all hard 16's? (3, 4,5 card 16's?)



Good catch. My calculation was just the first two cards.

Quote:

Also would probably change basic strategy a little. Take a hand like 12 vs 4 that is really borderline stand. Under this scenario it might become more favorable to hit, right? Maybe even some 13 stiff hands?



I agree.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1360
  • Posts: 22560
December 7th, 2020 at 5:23:55 AM permalink
I did a little searching and found this promotion is at the Morongo and on their anniversary, December 10, only.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1360
  • Posts: 22560
December 7th, 2020 at 5:49:23 AM permalink
I find that if the bonus applies with 3 or more cards, then the player should hit the following hands:

12 vs. 4
12 vs. 5
13 vs. 2
13 vs. 3

There would be a lot more basic strategy changes if the bonus applies after doubling or splitting.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 108
  • Posts: 7497
December 7th, 2020 at 1:37:25 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I did a little searching and found this promotion is at the Morongo and on their anniversary, December 10, only.



So do you know the actual rules of the promotion?
calwatch
calwatch
Joined: Feb 7, 2010
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 114
December 7th, 2020 at 2:25:30 PM permalink
Only what is on their web site. I'm tempted to drive out there and find out, although I would rather not be gathering at a casino table when COVID case rates in the SoCal region are spiking and ICU capacity is dropping like a rock.

  • Jump to: