I show the probability of a hard 16 in a six-deck game is 6.51%. Getting $16* every time that happens is worth $1.04 a hand. Dividing that by a $25 bet is worth 4.16% the player's way. I don't know what the other rules are, if we assume a house edge of 0.66%, that would be a player edge of 3.5%.

If we assume the player bets three hands of $25 and 80 rounds per hour, that is worth $210/hr and fairly low risk.

* corrected

Quote:WizardNice!

I show the probability of a hard 16 in a six-deck game is 6.51%. Getting $25 every time that happens is worth $1.04 a hand. Dividing that by a $25 bet is worth 4.16% the player's way. I don't know what the other rules are, if we assume a house edge of 0.66%, that would be a player edge of 3.5%.

OP says you get $16 not $25. So would be $0.66/hand? I highly doubt most casinos with $25 minimum would allow you to bet 3x25 although some east coast and tucson casinos do allow three hands at table minimum and I'm sure more are allowing two during covid.

By the way, Wiz, was your calculations just for the first 2 card 16's or all hard 16's? (3, 4,5 card 16's?)

Also would probably change basic strategy a little. Take a hand like 12 vs 4 that is really borderline stand. Under this scenario it might become more favorable to hit, right? Maybe even some 13 stiff hands?

Quote:mcallister3200OP says you get $16 not $25. So would be $0.66/hand?

Good catch. $16 * 6.51% = $1.04. So, my math was right, but I had a typo on the bonus amount.

Quote:I highly doubt most casinos with $25 minimum would allow you to bet 3x25 although some east coast and tucson casinos do allow three hands at table minimum and I'm sure more are allowing two during covid.

Good point. Might be one per player too.

Quote:kewljBy the way, Wiz, was your calculations just for the first 2 card 16's or all hard 16's? (3, 4,5 card 16's?)

Good catch. My calculation was just the first two cards.

Quote:Also would probably change basic strategy a little. Take a hand like 12 vs 4 that is really borderline stand. Under this scenario it might become more favorable to hit, right? Maybe even some 13 stiff hands?

I agree.

12 vs. 4

12 vs. 5

13 vs. 2

13 vs. 3

There would be a lot more basic strategy changes if the bonus applies after doubling or splitting.