calwatch
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December 6th, 2020 at 7:54:34 PM permalink
A Southern California Indian casino (you can look it up) is offering a special $16 on a hard 16, stating simply, "Win or lose, win a BONUS $16 when you’re dealt a hard 16 on traditional Blackjack!" Their usual minimums are $25 on 6 deck, $50 on double deck, hit on 17. Who knows if this bonus is only paid once per cardholder (in which case it's nice but not a gamechanger) or for every hand (which seems very advantageous, although this casino has been known to give the heat on minimal changes in bet).
Wizard
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December 6th, 2020 at 9:14:05 PM permalink
Nice!

I show the probability of a hard 16 in a six-deck game is 6.51%. Getting $16* every time that happens is worth $1.04 a hand. Dividing that by a $25 bet is worth 4.16% the player's way. I don't know what the other rules are, if we assume a house edge of 0.66%, that would be a player edge of 3.5%.

If we assume the player bets three hands of $25 and 80 rounds per hour, that is worth $210/hr and fairly low risk.

* corrected
Last edited by: Wizard on Dec 7, 2020
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mcallister3200
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December 6th, 2020 at 9:26:34 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Nice!

I show the probability of a hard 16 in a six-deck game is 6.51%. Getting $25 every time that happens is worth $1.04 a hand. Dividing that by a $25 bet is worth 4.16% the player's way. I don't know what the other rules are, if we assume a house edge of 0.66%, that would be a player edge of 3.5%.



OP says you get $16 not $25. So would be $0.66/hand? I highly doubt most casinos with $25 minimum would allow you to bet 3x25 although some east coast and tucson casinos do allow three hands at table minimum and I'm sure more are allowing two during covid.
kewlj
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December 6th, 2020 at 10:00:00 PM permalink
Better find out if it is all hard 16's or just the first for each player. I am guessing just a one time bonus the first hard 16 for each player. Otherwise you are looking at a blackjack player AP convention in Cali. lol

By the way, Wiz, was your calculations just for the first 2 card 16's or all hard 16's? (3, 4,5 card 16's?)

Also would probably change basic strategy a little. Take a hand like 12 vs 4 that is really borderline stand. Under this scenario it might become more favorable to hit, right? Maybe even some 13 stiff hands?
Wizard
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December 7th, 2020 at 5:19:30 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

OP says you get $16 not $25. So would be $0.66/hand?



Good catch. $16 * 6.51% = $1.04. So, my math was right, but I had a typo on the bonus amount.

Quote:

I highly doubt most casinos with $25 minimum would allow you to bet 3x25 although some east coast and tucson casinos do allow three hands at table minimum and I'm sure more are allowing two during covid.



Good point. Might be one per player too.
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Wizard
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December 7th, 2020 at 5:20:32 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

By the way, Wiz, was your calculations just for the first 2 card 16's or all hard 16's? (3, 4,5 card 16's?)



Good catch. My calculation was just the first two cards.

Quote:

Also would probably change basic strategy a little. Take a hand like 12 vs 4 that is really borderline stand. Under this scenario it might become more favorable to hit, right? Maybe even some 13 stiff hands?



I agree.
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Wizard
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December 7th, 2020 at 5:23:55 AM permalink
I did a little searching and found this promotion is at the Morongo and on their anniversary, December 10, only.
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Wizard
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December 7th, 2020 at 5:49:23 AM permalink
I find that if the bonus applies with 3 or more cards, then the player should hit the following hands:

12 vs. 4
12 vs. 5
13 vs. 2
13 vs. 3

There would be a lot more basic strategy changes if the bonus applies after doubling or splitting.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
SOOPOO
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December 7th, 2020 at 1:37:25 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I did a little searching and found this promotion is at the Morongo and on their anniversary, December 10, only.



So do you know the actual rules of the promotion?
calwatch
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December 7th, 2020 at 2:25:30 PM permalink
Only what is on their web site. I'm tempted to drive out there and find out, although I would rather not be gathering at a casino table when COVID case rates in the SoCal region are spiking and ICU capacity is dropping like a rock.
Wizard
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December 7th, 2020 at 3:58:32 PM permalink
Quote: calwatch

Only what is on their web site. I'm tempted to drive out there and find out, although I would rather not be gathering at a casino table when COVID case rates in the SoCal region are spiking and ICU capacity is dropping like a rock.



Are they voluntarily operating at 25% capacity? Could be difficult getting a seat, if so.
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gordonm888
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December 7th, 2020 at 4:18:01 PM permalink
I imagine that 8-8 is considered to be NOT a hard 16?

I would be surprised if this is "unlimited $16 bonuses" per player.
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calwatch
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December 7th, 2020 at 4:21:21 PM permalink
The way SoCal COVID cases seem to be going I think it's more likely casinos are going to close by Thursday, certainly much more likely than giving $16 to every player without limit.
AxelWolf
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December 7th, 2020 at 8:10:09 PM permalink
I'm interested in knowing the full details if anyone is in the area.
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Wizard
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December 7th, 2020 at 9:00:38 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

I imagine that 8-8 is considered to be NOT a hard 16?



Why not?

Quote:

I would be surprised if this is "unlimited $16 bonuses" per player.



I would be surprised otherwise. Much like the Mohegan Sun went through with the Triple Down promotion, I predict they follow through with it.
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mcallister3200
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December 7th, 2020 at 9:47:02 PM permalink
This is the same casino that canceled a BJ promo years ago very shortly before it was to take place isn’t it? Wong sent it to his subscribers, they got swamped with all seats taken hours beforehand, and they got spooked and cancelled it before the opening bell. Google “how to kill a casino promotion” or “what went wrong at (casino name)” on Snyder’s old website.
WTflush
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December 8th, 2020 at 12:04:29 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Why not?



I would be surprised otherwise. Much like the Mohegan Sun went through with the Triple Down promotion, I predict they follow through with it.



Morongo had a similar promotion many years back for Friday the 13th...much before my time gambling but people who were there say every single ap from all over the country showed up, and they cancelled the promo before it even started. I can't imagine they are dumb enough to try that again. I'd bet it's one hard 16 per person, and you may even have to have a physical coupon to redeem to get paid.
Deucekies
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December 8th, 2020 at 2:15:42 AM permalink
This seems like a promotion that might be tied to a progressive fund they're trying to give away. A few months ago, several WA state cardrooms gave away all their progressive meters in a promotion kind of like this one.
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WTflush
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December 8th, 2020 at 2:43:15 AM permalink
Why did the washington cardrooms need to give away the progressive money?
blackjacklad
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December 8th, 2020 at 7:41:51 AM permalink
My understanding is that if a machine with a progressive is removed the casino is obliged to return the jackpot to patrons in another way, lest they fall foul of gaming regulations. That being the case using it to fund a promo is a good idea.
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December 8th, 2020 at 7:55:53 AM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

This seems like a promotion that might be tied to a progressive fund they're trying to give away. A few months ago, several WA state cardrooms gave away all their progressive meters in a promotion kind of like this one.



Years ago the Chumash had a promotion where you got $22 if you busted with 22. The minimum bet was $3 at the time, if I remember correctly. Our own teliot played it. I believe he said the casino had to give back the "fee to play" money and that is how they did it.

However the "fee to play" days in California in tribal casinos are long gone.

I tend to think it was just an ill-conceived promotion.
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WTflush
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December 8th, 2020 at 10:43:58 AM permalink
I don't think washington card rooms have machines. Also morongo has something like 4000+ machines so they have plenty of other places to dump the progressive money, it does not make sense to give it to table games players.
Deucekies
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December 9th, 2020 at 4:22:02 AM permalink
Quote: WTflush

I don't think washington card rooms have machines. Also morongo has something like 4000+ machines so they have plenty of other places to dump the progressive money, it does not make sense to give it to table games players.



WA cardrooms don't have machines, but their table games do have progressive jackpots.
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WTflush
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December 9th, 2020 at 6:35:27 AM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

WA cardrooms don't have machines, but their table games do have progressive jackpots.



The part about machines was directed at blackjacklad not you, as he brought up machines. But, since you're here, please explain what circumstances lead to WA card rooms giving away their progressive money and how that could possibly apply to a giant Indian casino in California.
Wizard
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December 10th, 2020 at 6:59:07 AM permalink
Today is the big day of the Morongo $16 promotion. I hope to hear a report from anybody who went.
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Wizard
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December 10th, 2020 at 8:10:36 PM permalink
Anybody hear anything?
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Deucekies
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December 10th, 2020 at 9:00:58 PM permalink
Quote: WTflush

The part about machines was directed at blackjacklad not you, as he brought up machines. But, since you're here, please explain what circumstances lead to WA card rooms giving away their progressive money and how that could possibly apply to a giant Indian casino in California.



WA cardrooms will give away their progressive money any time the jackpot is removed from play. It could mean the game is being removed, just the progressive wager is being removed, or the cardroom is planning to close. In WA's case, the cardrooms who did this did not bring their progressives out to the outdoor tents, so they had to give the money away.
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WTflush
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December 10th, 2020 at 9:31:43 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Anybody hear anything?



$50 min on every table except 1 which is $25 and of course impossible to get a seat at.
calwatch
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December 10th, 2020 at 9:44:53 PM permalink
Quote: WTflush

$50 min on every table except 1 which is $25 and of course impossible to get a seat at.



That's what I figured, which would still be a player advantage with $50 flat betting if they actually paid $16 on every 16. I was not about to risk my health to find out, though.
WTflush
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December 10th, 2020 at 10:17:29 PM permalink
Quote: calwatch

That's what I figured, which would still be a player advantage with $50 flat betting if they actually paid $16 on every 16. I was not about to risk my health to find out, though.



It is unlimited $16 payouts. I'm very surprised.

I got a spot on $25 but I'm considering going to a $50 table and playing all 6 spots haha
FinsRule
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December 11th, 2020 at 7:44:10 AM permalink
I don't think this was already addressed... What's the maximum bet for there to still be a player advantage?
DRich
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December 11th, 2020 at 7:48:21 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I don't think this was already addressed... What's the maximum bet for there to still be a player advantage?



That is a good question but clearly the best EV is betting the minimum.
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sabre
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December 11th, 2020 at 7:49:33 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I don't think this was already addressed... What's the maximum bet for there to still be a player advantage?



If it's worth $1.04 a hand then the breakeven wager is $1.04/<house edge>. For a .57% game that would be about $183.
sabre
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December 11th, 2020 at 7:55:13 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

That is a good question but clearly the best EV is betting the minimum.



If you're getting 50% more hands you're betting off betting a $50 min table than a $15 assuming you're adequately bankrolled.
Wizard
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December 11th, 2020 at 9:40:08 AM permalink
Quote: WTflush

$50 min on every table except 1 which is $25 and of course impossible to get a seat at.



Thank you for the report!

Quote: FinsRule

I don't think this was already addressed... What's the maximum bet for there to still be a player advantage?



The bonus is worth $1.04 a hand and the house edge otherwise is 0.55%.

So the breakeven bet amount would be $1.04/0.0055 = $189.09.

At a $50 bet it was worth $0.77 per hand played.
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FinsRule
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December 11th, 2020 at 10:05:39 AM permalink
Quote: sabre

If you're getting 50% more hands you're betting off betting a $50 min table than a $15 assuming you're adequately bankrolled.



That’s what I was trying to get at with my question. Thanks.
SOOPOO
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December 11th, 2020 at 11:38:31 AM permalink
Did anyone ever answer if it is just a two card 16 that pays or any number of cards?
WTflush
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December 15th, 2020 at 6:13:27 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Did anyone ever answer if it is just a two card 16 that pays or any number of cards?



It was only on the first 2 cards. Otherwise the table rules were fairly standard, 6 Deck 3:2 RSA Split4 H17 DAS no LS. Decent promo, wish I would've spent all day there!
calwatch
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December 28th, 2020 at 5:57:09 PM permalink
For the record, it came up on last week's Gambling with an Edge podcast, and I did not mind that the location was posted. It was unlikely that I was going to drive three hours round trip and take a day off in the middle of a pandemic from my day job to do this. I used the verbatim text of the promotion so that anyone who wanted to could Google for it. However, I did not want to make it so obvious to specifically name the casino.
https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/gambling-with-an-edge-guest-michael-shackleford-aka-wizard-of-odds/
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