Lucky Ladies Side Bet
Payout:
Pair of Queen Hearts - 100 to 1
Matched 20 (suits and cards match)- 25 to 1
Suited 20 - 10 to 1
Any other 20 - 3 to 1
Any Queen of Hearts - 2 to 1
Any Queen - 1 to 1
My calculations are as follows:
| Hand | Probability | Payout | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pair Qh | .000309 | 100 | .0309 |
| Matched 20 | .004638 | 25 | .11595 |
| Suited 20 | .020777 | 10 | .20777 |
| Any other 20 | .080139 | 3 | .24031 |
| Any Qh | .026713 | 2 | .053426 |
| Any Q | .080139 | 1 | .080139 |
| Loss | .787285 | -1 | -.787285 |
| Total EV | -.05879 |
Can anybody help with this or run a sim? Thanks!
-railer
Quote: railerI found a game with a different LL side bet payout structure and I'm trying to calculate the house edge.
Payout:
Pair of Queen Hearts - 100 to 1
Matched 20 (suits and cards match)- 25 to 1
Suited 20 - 10 to 1
Any other 20 - 3 to 1
Any Queen of Hearts - 2 to 1
Any Queen - 1 to 1
My calculations are as follows:
Hand Probability Payout EV Pair Qh .000309 100 .0309 Matched 20 .004638 25 .11595 Suited 20 .020777 10 .20777 Any other 20 .080139 3 .24031 Any Qh .026713 2 .053426 Any Q .080139 1 .080139 Loss .787285 -1 -.787285 Total EV -.05879
Can anybody help with this or run a sim? Thanks!
-railer
I see that it's dealt from 6 decks
I get a house edge of 5.868%, which is very close to your 5.879%. This is very low compared to other Lucky Ladies pay tables.
Below are my numbers of ways for 6 decks.
| Hand | Payout | Ways |
|---|---|---|
| Pair Qh | 100 | 15 |
| Matched 20 | 25 | 225 |
| Suited 20 | 10 | 1008 |
| Any other 20 | 3 | 3888 |
| Any Qh | 2 | 1296 |
| Any Q | 1 | 3888 |
| Loss | -1 | 38196 |
| Total | 48516 |
Interesting to note that the Wizard's table D - 6 decks on his LL page may be incorrect for "Any other 20". That's what was driving me nuts...but I think you confirmed that I was on the right track.
Our differences are close enough for me, but may be due to rounding errors?
Not sure why people are saying not to play.... it seems like a great game to me.
Quote: railerChesterDog, Thanks for your reply. Yes, it is a six-deck game.
Interesting to note that the Wizard's table D - 6 decks on his LL page may be incorrect for "Any other 20". That's what was driving me nuts...but I think you confirmed that I was on the right track.
Our differences are close enough for me, but may be due to rounding errors?
Not sure why people are saying not to play.... it seems like a great game to me.
I get the same as ChesterDog. Wizard has a math error on his any 20.
Quote: mipletI get the same as ChesterDog. Wizard has a math error on his any 20.
Thank you for bringing this to my attention. I just updated my Lucky Ladies page, hopefully correctly.
Lucky Ladies
If I Change the hi-lo tags in the following way (for a BJ variant):
2:+1; 3:+1; 4: +1; 5:+1; 6: +2; 7: +1; 8: 0; 9: 0; 10: -1; Ace: -1
how are the indices most likely to Change?
My guess would be:
Positive Indices and Insurance: Index of hi-lo times 1.4 (7/5)
Negative Indices: Unchanged
let 's say 5 low cards 2-7 are removed evenly you would get as a RC +7 using the above altered tags instead of +5 on average;
this divided by the number of decks remaining would give the TC resp index for a certain playing Deviation...
e.g. 9 vs 2 is +1 in the hi-low (6D). Would the index then Change to +1.4?
Insurance equally should Change from +3,2 to +4,5...
Quote: BlackjackGuy123At what hi lo TC does this side bet become profitable?
Much more effective to use a ten count.
Quote: MaxPenMuch more effective to use a ten count.
O brother.
If you're a small time player (red chipper) I'd absolutely recommend focusing on the Tens count and spreading to 2 hands when you hit your trigger. You can make a better hourly doing this with a bit more longevity as well at most places (especially if you're a red chipper).
It changes based on both # of decks and pay tables. For the other two paytables, the trigger can be as low as +5 or as high as +8. Presumably the trigger is lower here because the house edge is significantly lower.
Quote: WABJ11I’m on a carnival ship and (I don’t play lucky ladies) but saw the payouts for lucky ladies was especially bad. It’s 3,8,18,125,1000. It’s even offered on their version of Spanish 21 (K’s removed) which I imagine the HE has to be close to 50%. Just curious for mathematical sake how bad the house edge is.
link to original post
For the pay table 3,8,18,125,1000, I get these Lucky Ladies EVs:
-0.503580 for eight Spanish decks
-0.509920 for six Spanish decks
-0.346160 for eight regular decks
-0.352642 for six regular decks:
I think you're right that the HE for that pay table on Spanish 21 is close to 50%.
Compare these with those of other pay tables: Wizard of Odds.
Quote: ChesterDogQuote: WABJ11I’m on a carnival ship and (I don’t play lucky ladies) but saw the payouts for lucky ladies was especially bad. It’s 3,8,18,125,1000. It’s even offered on their version of Spanish 21 (K’s removed) which I imagine the HE has to be close to 50%. Just curious for mathematical sake how bad the house edge is.
link to original post
For the pay table 3,8,18,125,1000, I get these Lucky Ladies EVs:
-0.503580 for eight Spanish decks
-0.509920 for six Spanish decks
-0.346160 for eight regular decks
-0.352642 for six regular decks:
I think you're right that the HE for that pay table on Spanish 21 is close to 50%.
Compare these with those of other pay tables: Wizard of Odds.
link to original post
Thank you! I had a bet with one of the staff. I’m right! I’m surprised it’s 34% on regular blackjack. I thought it would be closer to 40.
